Search

Humans are exposed to combinations of chemicals. In cumulative risk assessment (CRA), regulatory bodies such as the European Food Safety Authority consider dose addition as a default and sufficiently conservative approach. The principle of dose addition was confirmed previously for inducing craniofacial malformations in zebrafish embryos in binary mixtures of chemicals with either similar or dissimilar modes of action (MOAs).In this study, we explored a workflow to select and experimentally test multiple compounds as a complex mixture with each of the compounds at or below its no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL), in the same zebrafish embryo model.Selection of candidate compounds that potentially induce craniofacial malformations was done usingA final selection of eight compounds was examined in the zebrafish embryo model, and craniofacial malformations were observed in embryos exposed to each of the compounds, thus confirming the developmental toxicity as predicted by theThis case study of a complex mixture inducing craniofacial malformations in zebrafish embryos shows that dose addition can adequately predicted the cumulative effect of a mixture of multiple substances at low doses, irrespective of the (expected) MOA. The applied workflow may be useful as an approach for CRA in general. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9888.

Focus on risks to human health and the environment from combined exposure to multiple chemicals ("mixture risk assessment") has increased in the last couple of decades. There has been a rise in awareness and concern in the community, especially concerning unintentional environmental exposure to unknown chemical mixtures. The Horizon 2020 project EuroMix has developed methodologies and tools for mixture risk assessment with a focus on component-based approach where substances are grouped based on toxicological considerations. Dose addition is used as the model for calculating the combined toxicity of mixture components. The methodology is anchored in the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) concept, which provides a structured basis for e.g. grouping substances into assessment groups and identifying and collecting relevant toxicity data. The aim of this paper is to describes development of the methodology for mixture risk assessment and to provide detailed methodology for problem formulation, use of AOP networks for development of tiered testing strategies and grouping of substances, as well as considerations for use of dose addition methodology.

The number of anthropogenic chemicals, manufactured, by-products, metabolites and abiotically formed transformation products, counts to hundreds of thousands, at present. Thus, humans and wildlife are exposed to complex mixtures, never one chemical at a time and rarely with only one dominating effect. Hence there is an urgent need to develop strategies on how exposure to multiple hazardous chemicals and the combination of their effects can be assessed. A workshop, “Advancing the Assessment of Chemical Mixtures and their Risks for Human Health and the Environment” was organized in May 2018 together with Joint Research Center in Ispra, EU-funded research projects and Commission Services and relevant EU agencies. This forum for researchers and policy-makers was created to discuss and identify gaps in risk assessment and governance of chemical mixtures as well as to discuss state of the art science and future research needs. Based on the presentations and discussions at this workshop we want to bring forward the following Key Messages: • We are at a turning point: multiple exposures and their combined effects require better management to protect public health and the environment from hazardous chemical mixtures. • Regulatory initiatives should be launched to investigate the opportunities for all relevant regulatory frameworks to include prospective mixture risk assessment and consider combined exposures to (real-life) chemical mixtures to humans and wildlife, across sectors. • Precautionary approaches and intermediate measures (e.g. Mixture Assessment Factor) can already be applied, although, definitive mixture risk assessments cannot be routinely conducted due to significant knowledge and data gaps. • A European strategy needs to be set, through stakeholder engagement, for the governance of combined exposure to multiple chemicals and mixtures. The strategy would include research aimed at scientific advancement in mechanistic understanding and modelling techniques, as well as research to address regulatory and policy needs. Without such a clear strategy, specific objectives and common priorities, research, and policies to address mixtures will likely remain scattered and insufficient. Keywords: Chemical mixtures, Environmental chemicals, Combined exposure, Mixture risk assessment, Risk management

Mixtures of substances to which humans are exposed may lead to cumulative exposure and health effects. To study their effects, it is first necessary to identify a cumulative assessment group (CAG) of substances for risk assessment or hazard testing. Excluding substances from consideration before there is sufficient evidence may underestimate the risk. Conversely, including everything and treating the inevitable uncertainties using conservative assumptions is inefficient and may overestimate the risk, with an unknown level of protection. An efficient, transparent strategy is described to retain a large group, quantifying the uncertainty of group membership and other uncertainties. Iterative refinement of the CAG then focuses on adding information for the substances with high probability of contributing significantly to the risk. Probabilities can be estimated using expert opinion or derived from data on substance properties. An example is presented with 100 pesticides, in which the retain step identified a single substance to target refinement. Using an updated hazard characterisation for this substance reduced the mean exposure estimate from 0.43 to 0.28 μg kg-bw−1 day−1 and reduced the 99.99th percentile exposure from 24.9 to 5.1 μg kg-bw−1 day−1. Other retained substances contributed little to the risk estimates, even after accounting for uncertainty.

International audience; A model and data toolbox is presented to assess risks from combined exposure to multiple chemicals using probabilistic methods. The Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) toolbox, also known as the EuroMix toolbox, has more than 40 modules addressing all areas of risk assessment, and includes a data repository with data collected in the EuroMix project. This paper gives an introduction to the toolbox and illustrates its use with examples from the EuroMix project. The toolbox can be used for hazard identification, hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation. Examples for hazard identification are selection of substances relevant for a specific adverse outcome based on adverse outcome pathways and QSAR models. Examples for hazard characterisation are calculation of benchmark doses and relative potency factors with uncertainty from dose response data, and use of kinetic models to perform in vitro to in vivo extrapolation. Examples for exposure assessment are assessing cumulative exposure at external or internal level, where the latter option is needed when dietary and non-dietary routes have to be aggregated. Finally, risk characterisation is illustrated by calculation and display of the margin of exposure for single substances and for the cumulation, including uncertainties derived from exposure and hazard characterisation estimates.

Pesticide residues in food can lead to harmful toxic effects when exposed. Some of these compounds have a common Mode of Action and thus elicit a similar biological response. This paper considers the triazoles, a class of widely used fungicides exhibiting the same short-term (acute) and long-term (chronic) response in humans. We examined Belgian pesticide residue data from 2011-2014 and coupled these with the results of the Belgian food consumption survey of 2004. Cumulative probabilistic risk assessment was done using the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment 8.0 web application. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) published a guidance document that proposes both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for dietary exposure assessment. Other than those two, a third, more balanced, scenario was simulated and showed an exposure right in between the EFSA scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, the foods with the highest measured residues in the residue data contributed the most to the total health risk. In the balanced and pessimistic scenarios, the highest contribution to the total health risk was made by active ingredients with a high sampling rate and/or a high consumption rate. No significant trends were observed in the health risk through 2011 to 2014, and the exposure distribution showed no health risks for the extreme consumers, with one exception in 2012.

Populations are exposed to mixtures of pesticides through their diet on a daily basis. The question of which substances should be assessed together remains a major challenge due to the complexity of the mixtures. In addition, the associated risk is difficult to characterise. The EuroMix project (European Test and Risk Assessment Strategies for Mixtures) has developed a strategy for mixture risk assessment. In particular, it has proposed a methodology that combines exposures and hazard information to identify relevant mixtures of chemicals belonging to any cumulative assessment group (CAG) to which the European population is exposed via food. For the purposes of this study, food consumption and pesticide residue data in food and drinking water were obtained from national surveys in nine European countries. Mixtures of pesticides were identified by a sparse non-negative matrix underestimation (SNMU) applied to the specific liver steatosis effect in children from 11 to 15 years of age, and in adults from 18 to 64 years of age in nine European countries. Exposures and mixtures of 144 pesticides were evaluated through four different scenarios: (1) chronic exposure with a merged concentration dataset in the adult population, (2) chronic exposure with country-specific concentration datasets in the adult population, (3) acute exposure with a merged concentration dataset in the adult population, and (4) chronic exposure with a merged concentration dataset in the paediatric population. The relative potency factors of each substance were calculated to express their potency relative to flusilazole, which was chosen as the reference compound. The selection of mixtures and the evaluation of exposures for each country were carried out using the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software. Concerning chronic exposure, one mixture explained the largest proportion of the total variance for each country, while in acute exposure, several mixtures were often involved. The results showed that there were 15 main pesticides in the mixtures, with a high contribution of imazalil and dithiocarbamate. Since the concentrations provided by the different countries were merged in the scenario using merged concentration data, differences between countries result from differences in food consumption behaviours. These results support the approach that using merged concentration data to estimate exposures in Europe seems to be realistic, as foods are traded across European borders. The originality of the proposed approach was to start from a CAG and to integrate information from combined exposures to identify a refined list of mixtures with fewer components. As this approach was sensitive to the input data and required significant resources, efforts should continue regarding data collection and harmonisation among the different aspects within the pesticides regulatory framework, and to develop methods to group substances and mixtures to characterise the risk.

Risk assessment of chemicals occurring in our diet is commonly performed for single chemicals without considering exposure to other chemicals. We performed a case study on risk assessment of combined dietary exposure to chemicals from different regulatory silos, i.e. pesticides (PPRs), persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and food additives (FAs). Chemicals were grouped into the cumulative assessment group (CAG) liver steatosis using a component-based approach. Based on literature, the CAG included 144 PPRs, 49 POPS and 7 FAs for which concentration data were available. For each silo, chronic combined dietary exposure was assessed for adults and children of nine European countries following the most commonly used exposure methodologies in Europe and by using a relative potency factor approach. For risk characterization, a Margin of Exposure (MOE) was calculated. To overarch the risk across silos, a normalised combined margin of exposure (nMOET) approach was proposed. This case study demonstrated that risk assessment of combined exposure to chemicals can be performed within regulatory silos. It also highlighted important differences in the conservatism of exposure scenarios, the derivation of point of departures and the subsequent acceptable MOEs between the silos. To overarch the risk despite these differences, a nMOET approach can be used.

Every day, we are exposed to multiple chemicals by several routes of exposure: diet, inhalation and dermal contact. Until recently, risk assessment is mostly performed separately for each chemical, considering only a single route of exposure. However, this simplified risk assessment does not take into account the effect that chemicals may have on each other and their effect on the same target organ. According to EU Regulation, EFSA is responsible to establish the methodology for combined exposure to multiple pesticides. Recently, EFSA has published the outline of the methodology on the EFSA website, including four EFSA opinions on how based on their toxicological profile and EFSA guidance on how to perform the exposure assessment. EFSA started grouping pesticides into cumulative assessment groups based on their toxicological profile for all pesticides affecting the nervous system and all pesticides affecting the thyroid gland. EFSA noticed that relevant information on the toxicity of the chemical is not always available. Consequently, EFSA applied a precautionary principle in their grouping and it was noticed that refinements are possible when data on toxicity becomes available. To this end, the new European funded project EuroMix will apply several in-silico and in-vitro tools to mixtures of chemicals that can affect the liver, the endocrine system, and the development stage. A number of test systems, including omics technology and classic toxicological testing, will be explored. The most promising tests for mixtures will be verified against results from animal studies. Once validated, the tests will be used to collect information needed to refine the risk assessment. Data and models will become available in a web-based platform for all European countries and stakeholders.

In this paper, we present an approach to format national food consumption data at raw agricultural commodity (RAC) level. In this way, the data is both formatted in a harmonised way given the comparability of RACs between countries, and suitable to assess the dietary exposure to chemicals analysed in RACs at a European level. In this approach, consumption data needs to be converted to edible part of RAC (e-RAC) level using a RAC conversion database. To subsequently use this data in exposure assessments, both e-RACs and RACs analysed in chemical control programmes should be classified via a uniform system. Furthermore, chemical concentrations in RACs may need to be converted to e-RAC level using processing factors. To illustrate the use of this approach, we describe how the Dutch RAC conversion database was used to convert consumption data of four national consumption surveys to e-RAC level, and the use of the FAO/WHO Codex Classification system of Foods and Animal Feeds to harmonise the classification. We demonstrate that this approach works well for pesticides and glycoalkaloids, and is an essential step forward in the harmonisation of risk assessment procedures within Europe when addressing chemicals analysed in RACs by all national food control systems.

The interest in holistic considerations in the area of food safety is increasing. Risk managers may face the problem that reducing the risk of one compound may increase the risk of another compound. An example is the potential increase in mycotoxin levels due to a reduced use of fungicides in crop production. The Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) model was used to compare the estimated health impacts on humans caused by crops contaminated with the fungicides spiroxamine (SPI) and tebuconazole (TEB) or with the mycotoxins deoxynivalenol (DON) and zearalenone (ZEA). The IPRA model integrates a distribution characterising the exposure of individuals with a distribution characterising the susceptibility of individuals towards toxic effects. Its outcome, a distribution of Individual Margins of Exposure (IMoE), served as basis to perform comparisons of compounds, effects, countries, and population groups. Based on the available data and the assumptions made, none of the four compounds was found to have impact on human health in the addressed scenarios. The IMoE distributions were located as follows: DON < TEB = ZEA < SPI, showing DON to be the compound with the highest potential for negative health impacts. The presented approach can help risk managers to prioritise risk-reduction measures.

The current study aims at estimating the dietary intake of PBDEs in the Netherlands and evaluating the resultant risk. Dietary intake was estimated using results of PBDE analyses in Dutch food products from 2003/2004 and consumption data of the third Dutch National Food Consumption Survey (1997/1998). Assuming that non-detects represent levels of half the detection limit, the median long-term intake of the Dutch population of the sum of five major PBDEs (namely PBDEs 47, 99, 100, 153+154) is 0.79 ng/kg body weight bw/day (P97.5: 1.62 ng/kg bw/day). When non-detects are considered as zeros the values are 0.53 (median) and 1.34 (P97.5) ng/kg bw/day. Environmental concentrations of PBDEs in Europe are expected to decline in the near future because of the ban on penta- and octaBDE technical products. However, it will take at least a decade before this will result in lower PBDE concentrations in food products. Hence, a regular monitoring program for PBDEs is recommended. A risk evaluation at the most sensitive endpoints of BDE 99 carried out in this paper indicates that, although the long-term exposure to BDE 99 is well below the human exposure threshold level for neurodevelopmental toxicity, it may be close to that for reproductive toxicity. © 2008 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

A model is presented which allows to quantify the simultaneous distribution of the exposure to two compounds, for example a health-risk and a health promoting compound. The model considers the total dietary intake, and can be used as a first step to study the effects on the balance between risks and benefits following changes in the consumption pattern. The exposure is modelled separately for intake probabilities using a betabinomial model, and for intake amounts using a lognormal model, and these parts are afterwards integrated by Monte Carlo simulation. The model is illustrated using the risk¿benefit case of dioxins and the omega-3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). High concentrations of both the health adverse compounds and the health promoting compounds are simultaneously present in fatty fish. Calculated exposures were compared with intake limits: the adequate intake for EPA + DHA and the tolerable daily intake (TDI) for dioxins. We estimate the probability that dioxin exposure is below TDI, the probability that EPA + DHA exposure is above the adequate intake, and the probability that both conditions occur simultaneously. We also model the dependence of these probabilities on age. In the studied population the exposure to both compounds is almost completely below the limits. A scenario study in which meat consumption was replaced by fatty fish consumption shows an increase in the fraction of the population with the recommended intake of EPA + DHA, however also the fraction of the population exceeding the TDI for dioxins is increased. For the example scenario the optimal amount of fatty fish consumption is derived.

Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at mcra.rivm.nl. We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure.

Exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) are assessed using risk analysis methods to protect public health. Traditionally, single sources, such as food or individual occupational sources, have been addressed. In reality, individuals can be exposed simultaneously to multiple sources. Improved regulation therefore requires the development of new tools for estimating the population distribution of exposures aggregated within an individual. A new aggregate model is described, which allows individual users to include as much, or as little, information as is available or relevant for their particular scenario. Depending on the inputs provided by the user, the outputs can range from simple deterministic values through to probabilistic analyses including characterisations of variability and uncertainty. Exposures can be calculated for multiple compounds, routes and sources of exposure. The aggregate model links to the cumulative dietary exposure model developed in parallel and is implemented in the web-based software tool MCRA. Case studies are presented to illustrate the potential of this model, with inputs drawn from existing European data sources and models. These cover exposures to UK arable spray operators, Italian vineyard spray operators, Netherlands users of a consumer spray and UK bystanders/residents. The model could also be adapted to handle non-PPP compounds.

This study evaluates the attitudes and perspectives of different stakeholder groups (agricultural producers, pesticide manufacturers, trading companies, retailers, regulators, food safety authorities, scientists and NGOs) towards the concepts of cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides by means of qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 15) and a quantitative stakeholder survey (n = 65). The stakeholders involved generally agreed that the use of chemical pesticides is needed, primarily for meeting the need of feeding the growing world population, while clearly acknowledging the problematic nature of human exposure to pesticide residues. Current monitoring was generally perceived to be adequate, but the timeliness and consistency of monitoring practices across countries were questioned. The concept of cumulative exposure assessment was better understood by stakeholders than the concept of aggregate exposure assessment. Identified pitfalls were data availability, data limitations, sources and ways of dealing with uncertainties, as well as information and training needs. Regulators and food safety authorities were perceived as the stakeholder groups for whom cumulative and aggregate pesticide exposure assessment methods and tools would be most useful and acceptable. Insights obtained from this exploratory study have been integrated in the development of targeted and stakeholder-tailored dissemination and training programmes that were implemented within the EU-FP7 project ACROPOLIS.

In this paper two models present in the computational tool Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) were compared for assessing the usual intake of lead in five countries. For this, we used national food consumption data organised according to the format of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive database and a single lead concentration database in which analysed commodities were organised according to EFSA's Standard Sampling Description (SSD) system. This meant that both input data were coded according to the hierarchical FoodEx1 classification system. We demonstrate that the naïve Observed Individual Means model resulted in more conservative estimates of the exposure in the right tail of the exposure distribution compared to a refined usual intake model, the LogisticNormal–Normal model. With MCRA, the usual intake could be estimated with both models using food consumption and concentration data that were coded according to the hierarchical FoodEx1 classification system demonstrating that this tool can be used in EFSA's data environment. Additionally, the computational tool has functionalities 1) to check the input data quality by presenting detailed information about these data around a specified percentile of exposure and 2) to decide whether the use of a more refined usual intake model is appropriate.

This introduction to the journal's supplement on probabilistic risk assessment of single and multiple exposure to pesticide residues or contaminants summarizes the objectives and results of the work performed in work package 3 of the EU-funded project SAFE FOODS. Within this work package, we developed an electronic platform of food consumption and chemical concentration databases harmonised at raw agricultural commodity level. In this platform the databases are connected to probabilistic software to allow probabilistic modelling of dietary exposure in a standardised way. The usefulness of this platform is demonstrated in two papers, which describe the exposure to pesticides and glycoalkaloids in several European countries. Furthermore, an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model was developed: a new tool to integrate exposure and effect modelling, including uncertainty analyses. The use of this model was shown in a paper on the cumulative exposure to anti-androgen pesticides. Combined with a health impact prioritization system, developed within this work package to compare heath risks between chemicals, the IPRA tool can also be used to compare health risks between multiple chemicals in complex risk assessment situation such as risk-benefit and risk trade-off analyses. Both the electronic platform of databases as the IPRA model may proof to be powerful tools to tackle the challenges risk managers are or will be faced with in the future.

Probabilistic dietary acute exposure assessments of captan and tolylfluanid were performed for the populations of the Czech Republic, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden. The basis for these assessments was national databases for food consumption and pesticide concentration data harmonised at the level of raw agricultural commodity. Data were obtained from national food consumption surveys and national monitoring programmes and organised in an electronic platform of databases connected to probabilistic software. The exposure assessments were conducted by linking national food consumption data either (1) to national pesticide concentration data or (2) to a pooled database containing all national pesticide concentration data. We show that with this tool national exposure assessments can be performed in a harmonised way and that pesticide concentrations of other countries can be linked to national food consumption surveys. In this way it is possible to exchange or merge concentration data between countries in situations of data scarcity. This electronic platform in connection with probabilistic software can be seen as a prototype of a data warehouse, including a harmonised approach for dietary exposure modelling.

Risk assessment of pesticides can be a statistically difficult problem because pesticides occur only occasionally, but they may occur on multiple components in the diet. A Bayesian statistical model is presented which incorporates multivariate modelling of food consumption and modelling of pesticide measurements which are for a large part below a measurement threshold. It is shown that Bayesian modelling is feasible for a limited number of food components, and that in a data-rich situation the model compares well with an empirical Monte Carlo modelling.

In this paper we calculated the usual and acute exposure to acrylamide (AA) in the Dutch population and young children (1-6 years). For this AA levels of different food groups were used as collected by the Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements (IRMM) of the European Commission's Directorate General Joint Research Centre (JRC) from April 2003 up to May 2004. This database contained about 3500 AA levels received from mainly Germany, The Netherlands, Ireland, Greece, Austria, UK and from food industry. Food consumption levels used were derived from the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey of 1997/1998 (n = 6250 of which 530 children aged 1-6 years). The exposure was estimated using the probabilistic approach. The results of the exposure calculations are discussed in relation to different methodological aspects of AA exposure calculations and possible uncertainties related to this. The items discussed include quality of the AA levels measured in food items, the allocation of AA levels to food categories, the quality of food consumption levels, and relevant exposure model in relation to reported toxicity of AA. Furthermore, we demonstrate that scenario studies and probabilistic modelling of exposure are potential useful tools to evaluate the effect of processing techniques to reduce AA levels in food on AA exposure. The scenarios studied reduced total AA exposure ranging from

The mycotoxin, deoxynivalenol (DON), is produced world-wide by the Fusarium genus in different cereal crops. We derived a provisional TDI of 1.1 µg /kg body weight (bw) and proposed a concentration limit of 129 pg DON/kg wheat based on this TDI and a high wheat consumption of children. In the period September 1998-January 2000, the average DON concentration in wheat was 446.tg/kg(n =219) in the Netherlands. During this period, the dietary intake of DON exceeded the provisional TDI, especially in children. Eighty percent of the one-year-olds showed a DON intake above the provisional TDI and 20% of these children exceeded twice the provisional TDI. Our probabilistic effect assessment shows that at these exposure levels, health effects may occur. Suppressive effects on body weights and relative liver weight were estimated at 2.2 and 2.7%. However, the large confidence intervals around these estimates indicated that the magnitudes of these effects are uncertain.