1. Integrating epidemiological and genetic data with different sampling intensities into a dynamic model of respiratory syncytial virus transmission.
- Author
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Kombe IK, Agoti CN, Munywoki PK, Baguelin M, Nokes DJ, and Medley GF
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Bayes Theorem, Child, Child, Preschool, Family Characteristics, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Kenya epidemiology, Male, Models, Theoretical, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human pathogenicity, Respiratory Syncytial Viruses pathogenicity, Stochastic Processes, Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections epidemiology, Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections genetics, Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections transmission
- Abstract
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is responsible for a significant burden of severe acute lower respiratory tract illness in children under 5 years old; particularly infants. Prior to rolling out any vaccination program, identification of the source of infant infections could further guide vaccination strategies. We extended a dynamic model calibrated at the individual host level initially fit to social-temporal data on shedding patterns to include whole genome sequencing data available at a lower sampling intensity. The study population was 493 individuals (55 aged < 1 year) distributed across 47 households, observed through one RSV season in coastal Kenya. We found that 58/97 (60%) of RSV-A and 65/125 (52%) of RSV-B cases arose from infection probably occurring within the household. Nineteen (45%) infant infections appeared to be the result of infection by other household members, of which 13 (68%) were a result of transmission from a household co-occupant aged between 2 and 13 years. The applicability of genomic data in studies of transmission dynamics is highly context specific; influenced by the question, data collection protocols and pathogen under investigation. The results further highlight the importance of pre-school and school-aged children in RSV transmission, particularly the role they play in directly infecting the household infant. These age groups are a potential RSV vaccination target group.
- Published
- 2021
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