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Abstract: Societal assets and human populations are spread unequally across landscapes causing vulnerability and resilience to vary spatially. The spatial scale at which most traditional vulnerability assessments are conducted (the county scale), however, has limited utility in assessing and mitigating sub-county vulnerability. Traditional vulnerability studies also neglect the differential spatial distribution of indicators at the sub-county scale and disregard the influence of specific indicators on overall vulnerability. Many assessments are typically sensitivity analyses and do not consider the combined impact of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity on vulnerability. These omissions can result in non-holistic vulnerability analyses. As a response to vulnerability assessment limitations, this research presents a framework for a Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability (SERV) model that measures vulnerability at the sub-county level. The SERV model determines varying sub-county vulnerability using socioeconomic, spatial and place-specific indicators that represent exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Statistical analyses were conducted to determine the spatial distribution and differential influence of indicators on overall sub-county vulnerability. The exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity components were then combined to create holistic sub-county vulnerability scores. The results indicate that vulnerability varies at the sub-county level. Results also indicate that the inclusion of spatially explicit indicators in vulnerability assessments aids decision makers in identifying markers of vulnerability in specific areas. Holistic vulnerability scores can help empower decision makers in targeting mitigation efforts toward areas where vulnerability is highest and at indicators that most impact vulnerability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Indicators of natural disaster resilience are factors that impact the ability to cope with and adapt to a natural disaster and climate change events. They can either contribute to or detract from resilience. Existing research has emphasized the importance of quantifying resilience in order to estimate baseline resilience and measure progress toward resilience enhancement. Previous attempts at quantification of resilience have not incorporated place-specific indicators or differential weighting of indicators for prioritization of resilience enhancement actions. Previous research efforts have also not incorporated spatial and temporal contexts when attempting to quantify resilience indicators. This research demonstrates the importance for quantifying resilience place-specific indicators, differential weighting of indicators, and the spatial and temporal contexts of indicators for resilience estimation and quantification through a case study of Sarasota County, Florida. This case study was conducted in four phases: preliminary interviews, plan review, focus group, and spatial analysis. Preliminary interviews were intended to contribute to development of research goals. The plan review process served to identify Sarasota County's planning priorities to determine possible indicators of resilience unique to Sarasota County as well as existing and planned county hazard mitigation strategies. The focus group was concerned with identifying resilience indicators through a workshop with officials from Sarasota County. The spatial analysis portion used findings from all three previous phases to demonstrate spatial patterns of resilience. This research demonstrates that although national resilience quantification metrics are useful, local scale resilience estimates appear more useful if community hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation is the primary goal. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Hazard mitigation plans (HMPs) play a critical role in the reduction of societal loss from natural and human-caused hazards and disasters. The occurrence of hazardous events cannot be prevented but hazard mitigation planning when diligently applied has proven to be an effective tool for enhancing local community resilience and reducing societal losses. HMPs are planning documents that aim to increase community preparedness and resiliency, and decrease vulnerability in the event of a hazard. However, due to a variety of reasons many communities often fail to address criteria that could protect against future societal losses. For instance, minimum requirements, as stipulated by the Disaster Mitigation Act 2000, are all that is needed to qualify for federal mitigation grant funding regardless of plan quality or appropriateness of HMPs to local hazards and risks. Additionally local emergency managers and planners also face constraints like integration of HMPs into comprehensive plans and a standardized tool to evaluate plan quality. In essence most communities in the US have HMPs but lack a method of evaluating the quality and effectiveness of their plans for mitigating hazards. Building on the standard HMP minimum requirements, additional criteria established in prominent hazard literature, and information culled from interviews, this study develops an evaluation matrix to assess local HMP quality. Based on the factors mentioned above, researchers explored the opportunities and constraints to HMP development faced by jurisdictions within our Western Washington study area. Conclusions reveal that available resources, level of sophistication, and political complexities affect the quality of HMP development and the actual implementation of mitigation planning strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Sustainable land-use planning requires decision makers to balance community growth with resilience to natural hazards. This balance is especially difficult in many coastal communities where planners must grapple with significant growth projections, the persistent threat of extreme events (e.g., hurricanes), and climate-change-driven sea level rise that not only presents a chronic hazard but also alters the spatial extent of sudden-onset hazards such as hurricanes. We examine these stressors on coastal, long-term land-use planning by reporting the results of a one-day community workshop held in Sarasota County, Florida that included focus groups and participatory mapping exercises. Workshop participants reflected various political agendas and socioeconomic interests of five local knowledge domains: business, environment, emergency management and infrastructure, government, and planning. Through a series of alternating domain-specific focus groups and interactive plenary sessions, participants compared the county 2050 comprehensive land-use plan to maps of contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazard zones and projected storm-surge hazard zones enlarged by sea level rise scenarios. This interactive, collaborative approach provided each group of domain experts the opportunity to combine geographically-specific, scientific knowledge on natural hazards and climate change with local viewpoints and concerns. Despite different agendas, interests, and proposed adaptation strategies, there was common agreement among participants for the need to increase community resilience to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to explore adaptation strategies to combat the projected, enlarged storm-surge hazard zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]