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We investigate methods for identifying groups of patients with different prognosis. Our focus is on procedures that yield interpretable descriptions for groups of patients and corresponding regions of the predictor space. These strategies include tree-based methods and techniques which construct a single prognostic group through 'peeling' or refining of a larger group patients. The peeling methods are relatively new and are developed in detail. Simulations and examples for describing groups of patients with poor outcomes using data from a clinical trial for patients with multiple myeloma are presented.

Recent evidence suggests that at least one cancer patient in three uses some form of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). We conducted a review of the published research on the efficacy of these treatments for breast cancer, which resulted in some observations about the current state of research and guidelines for future research. Although many of the papers reported encouraging results, the preponderance of phase I and II trials and other limitations precluded definitive conclusions about the efficacy of the treatments reported in these studies. A growing institutional base in this country has begun to facilitate improved research on CAM for cancer, yet many gaps remain. For example, there are no published reports of clinical trials or observational studies with survival endpoints for treatment agents used by many cancer patients. Clinical trials of a few CAM treatments are now in progress, but the results will not be available for several years. More complex and customized treatments may require innovative study designs and practitioner-investigator collaborations. Given the mounting evidence that CAM treatments are biologically active as well as widely used, CAM research may affect cancer outcomes.

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Objective: To estimate the numbers of female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Salvador, El Salvador. Design and Methods: A capture-recapture exercise was conducted among MSM and FSW in San Salvador in 2008. The first capture was done by distributing key chains to both MSM and FSW populations through local non-governmental organizations (NGO) that work with these groups. The second capture was done during the course of an integrated behavioural and biological survey (IBBS) using respondent-driven sampling (RDS). The proportion receiving a key chain estimated from the IBBS study was adjusted by RDS-derived weights. Results: The first capture included 400 FSW and 400 MSM. Of the 624 MSM interviewed in the IBBS, 36 (5.8% crude; 3.2% adjusted RDS) had received the key chain. The estimated population size of MSM in San Salvador was 12 480 (95% CI 7235 to 17 725). Of the 663 FSW interviewed in the IBBS, 39 (5.9% crude; 6.9% adjusted RDS) had received the key chain. The estimated number of FSW was 5765 (95% CI 4253 to 7277). Conclusions: The capture-recapture exercise was successfully linked to an IBBS to obtain city-level population sizes for MSM and FSW, providing valuable information at a low cost. Size estimates are crucial for programme planning for national AIDS programmes, NGOs and stakeholders working with these populations and for HIV projection models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the survival benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy for advanced ovarian cancer (OC), we examined the associations of survival with the time interval from debulking surgery to initiation of chemotherapy and with the duration of chemotherapy. Among patients > or =65 years with stages III/IV OC diagnosed between 1991 and 2002 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database, we developed regression models of predictors of the time interval from surgery to initiation of chemotherapy and of the total duration of chemotherapy. Survival was examined with Cox proportional hazards models. Among 2558 patients, 1712 (67%) initiated chemotherapy within 6 weeks of debulking surgery, while 846 (33%) began treatment >6 weeks. Older age, black race, being unmarried, and increased comorbidities were associated with delayed initiation of chemotherapy. Delay of chemotherapy was associated with an increase in mortality (hazard ratio (HR)=1.11; 95% CI, 1.0-1.2). Among 1932 patients in the duration of treatment analysis, the 1218 (63%) treated for 3-7 months had better survival than the 714 (37%) treated for < or =3 months (HR=0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.94). This analysis represents one of the few studies describing treatment delivery and outcome in women with advanced OC. Delayed initiation and early discontinuation of chemotherapy were common and associated with increased mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies suggest improved survival following resection of colorectal cancer liver metastases (CLMs). We investigated predictors of survival among patients with CLM who underwent hepatic resection using the SEER-Medicare database to identify patients >/=65 years diagnosed with CLM, 1991-2003, who underwent hepatectomy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify factors associated with survival after hepatectomy. Of 923 patients with CLM who underwent hepatectomy, 514 were stages I-III and developed CLM>6 months after diagnosis (metachronous), and 409 were stage IV with CLM at diagnosis (synchronous). From the date of hepatectomy, 5 year survival was 22%; younger age, being married, female gender, surgery in an NCI-designated cancer centre, fewer comorbidities, fewer positive lymph nodes, and lower grade were associated with improved survival. Both 5-fluorouracil (5FU)-based chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion (HAI) of floxuridine-based chemotherapy following hepatectomy improved survival (HR=0.62, 95% CI: 0.50-0.78; HR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.28-0.97, respectively) in the synchronous, but not metachronous, group. The HR for overall mortality was higher in hospitals with a high vs low procedure volume (0.75, 95% CI: 0.58-0.94). A substantial subgroup of patients with CLM who undergo hepatectomy experiences long-term survival. High hospital procedure volume and use of 5FU-based or HAI-based chemotherapy after resection were associated with improved prognosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The risk for colorectal cancer among family members of patients with colorectal cancer is well established, but the risk among family members of patients with colorectal adenomas is less well established.Objective: To examine the risk for colorectal cancer among first-degree relatives of patients with adenoma compared with that among first-degree relatives of controls without adenoma.Design: Reconstructed cohort study.Setting: Three university-based colonoscopy practices in New York City.Patients: 1554 first-degree relatives of 244 patients with newly diagnosed adenomas and 2173 first-degree relatives of 362 endoscopically normal controls.Measurements: Structured interviews were used to obtain family history. Adjusted relative risks (RR) were estimated from Cox proportional hazards regression models.Results: The risk for colorectal cancer was elevated (RR, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.24 to 2.45]) among first-degree relatives of patients with newly diagnosed adenomas compared with the risk among first-degree relatives of controls. This increased risk was the same for parents (RR, 1.58 [CI, 1.07 to 2.34]) and siblings (RR, 1.58 [CI, 0.81 to 3.08]). First-degree relatives of patients with adenomas did not have elevated risk for other cancers. The risk for colorectal cancer among family members increased with decreasing age at diagnosis of adenoma in probands. Among first-degree relatives of patients who were 50 years of age or younger when the adenoma was diagnosed, the risk was more than four times greater (RR, 4.36 [CI, 2.24 to 8.51]) than that among first-degree relatives of patients who were older than 60 years of age when the adenoma was diagnosed.Conclusions: First-degree relatives of patients with newly diagnosed adenomas, particularly of patients who are 50 years of age or younger at diagnosis, are at increased risk for colorectal cancer and should undergo screening similar to that recommended for relatives of patients with colorectal cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]