Search

This research assesses the Ecuadorian power generation system, estimating the electricity supply and demand forecast until 2040. For this purpose, three potential alternative scenarios were analyzed using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) System, S1: Business As Usual, S2: Power Generation Master Plan, and S3: Sustainable Power Generation System. The main goal of this study is to analyze the possible alternatives for electricity supply and demand, fuel consumption, and the future structure of the Ecuadorian power generation system to transform the current system based on petroleum fuels into a sustainable system that consumes natural gas, and progressively introduces renewable power generation plants such as solar, wind, biomass, and hydroelectric until 2040. According to the estimated results through the inclusion of sustainable energy policies, S3 scenario relative to S1 scenario could reduce the average CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions by 11.72%, the average production costs by 9.78%, and the average petroleum fuel consumption by 15.95%. Consequently, a correct energy transition contributes to the protection of the environment and public health and has a direct effect on economic savings for the state, which benefits to improve the citizen&rsquo, s quality of life.

Studying the driving factors and contributions of carbon emissions peak volume and time is essential for reducing the cumulative carbon emissions in developing countries with rapid economic development and increasing carbon emissions. Taking Jilin Province as a case study, four scenarios were set in this paper respectively: Business as Usual Scenario (BAU), Energy-Saving Scenario (ESS), Energy-Saving and Low-Carbon Scenario (ELS), and Low-Carbon Scenario (LCS). Furthermore, the carbon emissions were predicted according to the energy consumption based on the application of LEAP system. The research result showed that the peak time of carbon emissions would appear in 2045, 2040, 2035 and 2025 under the four different scenarios, respectively. The peak volumes would be 489.8 Mt, 395.2 Mt, 305.3 Mt and 233.6 Mt, respectively. The cumulative emissions by 2050 are respectively 15.632 Bt, 13.321 Bt, 10.971 Bt and 8.379 Bt. According to the forecasting, we analyzed the driving factors of and contributions to carbon emissions peak volume and time. On the premise of moderate economic growth, the “structural emission reduction”, namely the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure, and “technology emission reduction”, namely the reduction of energy intensity and carbon emission coefficient could make the peak volume reduced by 20%–52% and cumulative carbon emissions (2050) reduced by 15%–46% on the basis of BAU. Meanwhile, controlling the industrial structure, energy structure and energy intensity could make carbon emissions reach the peak 5–20 years ahead of the time on the basis of BAU. Controlling GDP, industrial structure, energy structure, energy intensity and coefficient of carbon emissions is the feasible method to adjust the carbon emissions peak volume and time in order to reduce the cumulative emissions.

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia de Sistemas, Garantir o fornecimento de energia a preços acessíveis, melhorar a eficiência energética e reduzir as emissões de gases são algumas das prioridades dos governantes de diversos países do mundo. A prossecução destes objetivos energéticos tem despoletado interesses na exploração e aproveitamento das Fontes de Energia Renováveis (FER), na medida em que estes recursos assumem um papel crucial que não se relaciona apenas com a sustentabilidade energética dos países, reduzindo a sua dependência de combustíveis fósseis e a emissão de CO2, mas também com o desenvolvimento económico e a consequente redução da pobreza, contribuindo assim de forma direta para um desenvolvimento mais sustentável. Cabo Verde apresenta-se como um país extremamente deficitário em energia primária. A eletricidade produzida, maioritariamente pelo recurso aos derivados do petróleo é uma das principais razões pelas quais se vive atualmente um período de complexidade no setor elétrico do país. Portanto, reduzir a dependência energética externa é uma das principais metas para o futuro. O presente trabalho pretende fazer uma leitura do estado do setor energético em Cabo Verde e tem como objetivo principal apresentar uma proposta de planeamento estratégico para o setor elétrico no país, através da elaboração de diferentes cenários possíveis com recurso às FER. Neste sentido, adotou-se um modelo de planeamento elétrico, de modo a incluir diferentes tipos de tecnologias renováveis, de acordo com o potencial do país e as necessidades elétricas estimadas para os próximos 20 anos. Foram simulados quatro cenários de mínimo custo, oferecendo cada um uma contribuição renovável diferente para a produção de eletricidade. O primeiro cenário considera as tecnologias renováveis e não renováveis já existentes em Cabo Verde, tendo como base os dados relativos ao ano 2015, período em que a contribuição total das FER para a geração de eletricidade foi cerca de 23%. Quanto aos outros três cenários, a percentagem das FER no sistema foi aumentada até se atingir os 100%. Os resultados demonstram que o aumento das FER no sistema deverá conduzir a um aumento do custo. No entanto, será possível reduzir significativamente as emissões de CO2 assim como a dependência energética do país. Torna-se também evidente a elevada sazonalidade dos recursos FER e em particular da fonte eólica resultando em excesso de produção nos diferentes cenários FER e demonstrando a importância do estudo de soluções de armazenamento adequados aos sistemas insulares., Ensuring the supply of affordable energy, improving energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are some of the priorities of the governments of several countries. The pursuit of these energy goals has triggered interest in the exploration and usage of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), given that these resources play a crucial role not only related to energy sustainability of countries, reducing its dependence on fossil fuels and CO2 emissions, but also to economic development and the consequent reduction of poverty, thus contributing directly to a more sustainable development. The shortage of primary energy in Cabo Verde is remarkable. Electricity combustion is the one of the main reasons why the country is experiencing a complex period in what concerns the electricity sector. Therefore, reducing external energy dependence is one of the main goals for the future. This work intends to make a revision on the state of the energy sector in Cabo Verde establishing as main objective the presentation of an electricity planning proposal for the country through the design of possible scenarios supported on RES. An electricity planning model was adopted to include different RES technologies according to the assessed country potential and to the electricity demand forecasted for the next 20 years. Four different scenarios were obtained, each one representing a possible RES contribution for electricity production. The first scenario includes renewable and non-renewable technologies already existing in Cabo Verde and supported on data for the year 2015, when RES contribution reached about 23%. As for the other three scenarios, the share of RES in the system was raised reaching 100%. The results demonstrate that the increase of the RES in system will lead to an increase on the total cost of energy. However, both CO2 emissions and external energy dependency of the country significantly decrease. The seasonality of the RES resources, and in particular of wind power, is put in evidence leading to excess of electricity generation for all RES scenarios and demonstrating the importance of further proceeding with the analysis including storage solutions well suited to insular systems.

This paper investigates Estonia’s prospects in meeting the new European Union climate commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions till 2030 by 40% and 2050 by 80-95% compared to 1990 emission levels. The contribution of this study is twofold. In a first stage, based on organizations reports and using the Long range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) it constructs seven long-term scenarios to examine Estonia's energy system till 2050. In a second stage, using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) nonparametric approach it evaluates the efficiency of renewable energy commitments in reducing GHG emissions. The findings show that the main challenge for the Estonia policy makers will be the energy policies associated with the renewable energy usage. It appears that under the seven different energy policy scenarios the higher the participation of renewable energy the higher the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.