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A detailed assessment of a low energy demand, 1.5 ∘C compatible pathway is provided for Europe from a bottom-up, country scale modelling perspective. The level of detail enables a clear representation of the potential of sufficiency measures. Results show that by 2050, 50% final energy demand reduction compared to 2019 is possible in Europe, with at least 40% of it attributable to various sufficiency measures across all sectors. This reduction enables a 77% renewable energy share in 2040 and 100% in 2050, with very limited need for imports from outside of Europe and no carbon sequestration technologies. Sufficiency enables increased fairness between countries through the convergence towards a more equitable share of energy service levels. Here we show, that without sufficiency measures, Europe misses the opportunity to transform energy demand leaving considerable pressure on supply side changes combined with unproven carbon removal technologies. A low energy demand, 1.5 ∘C compatible pathway is provided for Europe from a country scale modelling perspective. The pathway shows in 2050 a 50% reduction of final energy demand and a 100% renewable energy share, with very limited needs for imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal processes represent a significant fraction of industrial energy consumptions, and they rely mainly on fossil fuels. Thanks to technological innovation, highly efficient devices such as high-temperature heat pumps are becoming a promising solution for the electrification of industrial heat. These technologies allow for recovering waste heat sources and upgrading them at temperatures up to 200 °C. Moreover, the coupling of these devices with thermal storage units can unlock the flexibility potential deriving from the industrial sector electrification by means of Demand-Side Management strategies. The aim of this paper is to quantify the impact on the energy system due to the integration of industrial high-temperature heat pumps and thermal storage units by means of a detailed demand–supply model. To do that, the industrial heat demand is investigated through a set of thermal process archetypes. High-temperature heat pumps and thermal storage units for industrial use are included in the open-source unit commitment and optimal dispatch model Dispa-SET used for the representation of the energy system. The case study analyzed is Belgium, and the analysis is performed for different renewable penetration scenarios in 2040 and 2050. The results demonstrate the importance of a proper sizing of the heat pump and thermal storage capacity. Furthermore, it is obtained that the electrification of the thermal demand of industrial processes improves the environmental impact (84% reduction in CO2 emissions), but the positive effect of the energy flexibility provided by the heat pumps is appreciated only in the presence of a very high penetration of renewable energy sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing climate change, together with the global increase in energy consumption and unpredictable fossil fuel prices have been the main drivers for the implementation of power exchange, market coupling, energy efficiency measures and larger use of renewable energy. All these targets bring up the need for the development of new modelling frameworks and governance systems that will be based on competitive, secure and sustainable national action plans. For this purpose, the Dispa-SET model has been applied to six countries in the Western Balkans region. In the first scenario, the model has been validated for the year 2010. The second scenario has been developed according to the targets from national energy strategies for the years 2020 and 2030, while the third scenario has been developed with the purpose of determining the maximum share of renewable energy sources in the regional power mix. Simulation results indicate that the integration of additional wind and solar capacities, compared to the short and long-term national strategies for the years 2020 and 2030, can be achieved without compromising the stability of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: New heat conversion technologies need to be developed and improved to take advantage of the necessary increase in the supply of renewable energy. The Organic Rankine Cycle is well suited for these applications, mainly because of its ability to recover low-grade heat and the possibility to be implemented in decentralized lower-capacity power plants. In this paper, an overview of the different ORC applications is presented. A market review is proposed including cost figures for several commercial ORC modules and manufacturers. An in-depth analysis of the technical challenges related to the technology, such as working fluid selection and expansion machine issues is then reported. Technological constraints and optimization methods are extensively described and discussed. Finally, the current trends in research and development for the next generation of Organic Rankine Cycles are presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Organic Rankine Cycles (ORCs) are particularly suitable for recovering energy from low-grade heat sources. This paper describes the behavior of a small-scale ORC used to recover energy from a variable flow rate and temperature waste heat source. A traditional static model is unable to predict transient behavior in a cycle with a varying thermal source, whereas this capability is essential for simulating an appropriate cycle control strategy during part-load operation and start and stop procedures. A dynamic model of the ORC is therefore proposed focusing specifically on the time-varying performance of the heat exchangers, the dynamics of the other components being of minor importance. Three different control strategies are proposed and compared. The simulation results show that a model predictive control strategy based on the steady-state optimization of the cycle under various conditions is the one showing the best results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The transition to a more environmentally friendly energy matrix by reducing fossil fuel usage has become one of the most important goals to control climate change. Variable renewable energy sources (VRES) are a central low-carbon alternative. Nevertheless, their variability and low predictability can negatively affect the operation of power systems. On this issue, energy-system-modeling tools have played a fundamental role. When exploring the behavior of the power system against different levels of VRES penetration through them, it is possible to determine certain operational and planning strategies to balance the variations, reduce the operational uncertainty, and increase the supply reliability. In many developing countries, the lack of such proper tools accounting for these effects hinders the deployment potential of VRES. This paper presents a particular energy system model focused on the case of Bolivia. The model manages a database gathered with the relevant parameters of the Bolivian power system currently in operation and those in a portfolio scheduled until 2025. From this database, what-if scenarios are constructed allowing us to expose the Bolivian power system to a set of alternatives regarding VRES penetration and Hydro storage for that same year. The scope is to quantify the VRES integration potential and therefore the capacity of the country to leapfrog to a cleaner and more cost-effective energy system. To that aim, the unit-commitment and dispatch optimization problem are tackled through a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP) that solves the cost objective function within its constraints through the branch-and-cut method for each scenario. The results are evaluated and compared in terms of energy balancing, transmission grid capability, curtailment, thermal generation displacement, hydro storage contribution, and energy generation cost. In the results, it was found that the proposed system can reduce the average electricity cost down to 0.22 EUR/MWh and also reduce up to 2.22 × 10 6 t (96%) of the CO 2 emissions by 2025 with very high penetration of VRES but at the expense of significant amount of curtailment. This is achieved by increasing the VRES installed capacity to 10,142 MW. As a consequence, up to 7.07 TWh (97%) of thermal generation is displaced with up to 8.84 TWh (75%) of load covered by VRES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU aims to become the world's first climate-neutral continent by 2050. In order to meet this target, the integration of high shares of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) in the energy system is of primary importance. Nevertheless, the large deployment of variable renewable sources such as wind and photovoltaic power will pose important challenges in terms of power management. For this reason, increasing the system flexibility will be crucial to ensure the security of supply in future power systems. This work investigates the flexibility potential obtainable from the diffusion of Demand Response (DR) programmes applied to residential heating for different renewables penetration and power system configuration scenarios. To that end, a bottom-up model for residential heat demand and flexible electric heating systems (heat pumps and electric water heaters) is developed and directly integrated into Dispa-SET, an existing unit commitment optimal dispatch model of the power system. The integrated model is calibrated for the case of Belgium and different simulations are performed varying the penetration and type of residential heating technologies, installed renewables capacity and capacity mix. Results show that, at country level, operational cost could be reduced up to €35 million and curtailment up to 1 TWh per year with 1 million flexible electric heating systems installed. These benefits are significantly reduced when nuclear power plants (non-flexible) are replaced by gas-fired units (flexible) and grow when more renewable capacity is added. Moreover, when the number of flexible heating systems increases, a saturation effect of the flexibility is observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coupling of the heating and the electricity sectors is of utmost importance when it comes to the achievement of the decarbonisation and the energy efficiency targets set for the 2020 and 2030 in the EU. Centralised cogeneration plants connected to district heat networks are fundamental element of this coupling. Despite the efficiency benefits, the effects of introducing combined generation to the power system are sometimes adverse. Reduced flexibility caused by contractual obligations to deliver heat may not always facilitate the penetration of renewable energy in the energy system. Thermal storage is acknowledged as a solution to the above. This work investigates the optimal operation of cogeneration plants combined with thermal storage. To do so, a combined heat and power (CHP) plant model is formulated and incorporated into Dispa-SET, a JRC in-house unit commitment and dispatch model. The cogeneration model sets technical feasible operational regions for different heat uses defined by temperature requirements. Different energy system scenarios are used to assess the implications of the heating–electricity coupling to the flexibility of the power system and to the achievement of the decarbonisation goals in an existing non interconnected power system where CHP plants provide heating and electricity to nearby energy dense areas. The analysis indicates that the utilisation of CHP plants contributes to improve the overall system efficiency and reduce total cost of the system. In addition, the incorporation of thermal storage increases the penetration of renewable energy in the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The operation and economic profitability of modern energy systems is constrained by the availability of renewable energy and water resources. Lower water availability due to climate change, higher demand and increased water consumption for non-energy and energy needs may cause problems in Africa. In most African power systems, hydropower is a dominant renewable energy resource, and interconnection capacities are usually limited or unreliable. This paper describes a new modelling framework for analysing the water-energy nexus in the African Power Pools. This framework includes soft linking between two models: the LISFLOOD model is used to generate hydrological inputs and the Dispa-SET model is used for mid-term hydrothermal coordination and optimal unit commitment and power dispatch over the whole African continent. The results show a good agreement between the model outputs and the historical values, despite data-related limitations. Furthermore, the simulations provide hourly time series of electricity generation at the plant level in a robust way. It appears that some African power pools heavily rely on the availability of freshwater resources, while others are less dependent. In the long term, the dependence of the power system on water resources is likely to increase to meet the increasing electricity demand in Africa. • Robust and highly detailed analysis of water-energy nexus in African power pools. • Open source soft-linking framework between LISFLOOD and Dispa-SET models. • First open-source unit commitment and power dispatch model of African power pools. • A compilation of diverse data sources used for the integrated water-energy modelling. • Examination of current and future electricity situation and potential of power trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A wholesale day ahead heat market model (DARKO) is developed and validated. • Heat market facilitates new capacity addition, e.g. excess heat and solar thermal. • A high total welfare is achieved when excess heat and solar thermal are used. • Capacity factor of low temperature excess heat is too low for feasible utilisation. District heating has already proven to be a suitable solution for the decarbonisation of the most energy intensive energy sector in Europe, heating and cooling. However, to achieve this, it needs to incorporate renewable and sustainable energy sources into the generation mix which is still dominated by fossil fuels in many countries. Alongside traditional renewables like solar thermal, geothermal and biomass, excess heat from the industrial and service sector has a high untapped potential. Nonetheless, to utilize it in district heating, third party access must be granted. For that reason, a wholesale day ahead heat market has been modelled in this study and validated on a case study in the city of Sisak in Croatia. The idea was twofold: to evaluate the functionality of such a heat market and its effect on the existing system, as well as to analyse the integration of high and low temperature excess heat sources in different conditions, including the use of thermal storage, as well as the competition with low-cost renewables, i.e. solar thermal. The results have shown that the introduction of a wholesale day ahead heat market would ensure the positive total welfare in all the scenarios. The benefit for the demand side and the total welfare would increase even more if excess heat sources are integrated in the system and especially if they are combined with a thermal storage to increase their capacity factor, which would also decrease the competing effect of solar thermal. Finally, it was shown that low temperature excess heat is not feasible in the high temperature district heating and the transfer to the 4th generation district heating is required to feasibly utilise low temperature sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]