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This study evaluates the technoeconomic impacts of direct and indirect electrification on the EU's net-zero emissions target by 2050. By linking the JRC-EU-TIMES long-term energy system model with PLEXOS hourly resolution power system model, this research offers a detailed analysis of the interactions between electricity, hydrogen and synthetic fuel demand, production technologies, and their effects on the power sector. It highlights the importance of high temporal resolution power system analysis to capture the synergistic effects of these components, often overlooked in isolated studies. Results indicate that direct electrification increases significantly and unimpacted by biomass, CCS, and nuclear energy assumptions. However indirect electrification in the form of hydrogen varies significantly, between 1400 and 2200 TWh H2 by 2050. Synthetic fuels are essential for sector coupling, making up 6–12% of total energy consumption by 2050, with the power sector supplying most hydrogen and CO 2 for their production. Varying levels of indirect electrification impact electrolysers, renewable energy, and firm capacities. Higher indirect electrification increases electrolyser capacity factors by 8%, leading to more renewable energy curtailment but improves system reliability by reducing 11 TWh unserved energy and increasing flexibility options. These insights inform EU energy policies, stressing the need for a balanced approach to electrification, biomass use, and CCS to achieve a sustainable and reliable net-zero energy system by 2050. We also explore limitations and sensitivities. [Display omitted] • We analyse the EU's direct and indirect electrification requirements and impact. • We apply a novel soft-linking approach of JRC-EU-TIMES and PLEXOS. • Net-neutrality in EU requires 2- to 3-fold increase in electricity demand by 2050. • Increased CCS, biomass, or nuclear largely reduces reliance on electrolytic hydrogen. • Indirect electrification improves power system adequacy through flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses how different levels of geographical disaggregation of wind and photovoltaic energy resources could affect the outcomes of an energy system model by 2020 and 2050. Energy system models used for policy making typically have high technology detail but little spatial detail. However, the generation potential and integration costs of variable renewable energy sources and their time profile of production depend on geographic characteristics and infrastructure in place. For a case study for Austria we generate spatially highly resolved synthetic time series for potential production locations of wind power and PV. There are regional differences in the costs for wind turbines but not for PV. However, they are smaller than the cost reductions induced by technological learning from one modelled decade to the other. The wind availability shows significant regional differences where mainly the differences for summer days and winter nights are important. The solar availability for PV installations is more homogenous. We introduce these wind and PV data into the energy system model JRC-EU-TIMES with different levels of regional disaggregation. Results show that up to the point that the maximum potential is reached disaggregating wind regions significantly affects results causing lower electricity generation from wind and PV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine energy could play a significant role in the long-term energy system in Europe, and substantial resources have been allocated to research and development in this field. The main objective of this paper is to assess how technology improvements affect the deployment of marine energy in the EU. To do so the linear optimization, technology-rich model JRC-EU-TIMES is used. A sensitivity analysis is performed, varying technology costs and conversion efficiency under two different carbon-emissions paths for Europe: a current policy initiative scenario and a scenario with long-term overall CO 2 emission reductions. We conclude that, within the range of technology improvements explored, wave energy does not become cost-competitive in the modelled horizon. For tidal energy, although costs are important in determining its deployment, conversion efficiency also plays a crucial role. Ensuring the cost-effectiveness of tidal power by 2030 requires efficiency improvements by 40% above current expectations or cost reductions by 50%. High carbon prices are also needed to improve the competitiveness of marine energy. Finally, our results indicate that investing 0.1–1.1 BEuro 2010 per year in R&D and innovation for the marine power industry could be cost-effective in the EU, if leading to cost reduction or efficiency improvements in the range explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]