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This research undertakes an investigation of global fuel cell vehicle (FCV) deployment, cognizant of optimal economic deployment and stakeholder preferences in a case study of Japan out to the year 2050. The model is mathematically formulated as a large‐scale linear optimization problem, aiming to minimize system costs, including generation type, fuel, conversion, and carbon reduction, subject to the constraint of carbon dioxide reduction targets. Results show that between ∼0.8 and 2% of global energy consumption needs can be met by hydrogen by 2050, with city gas and transport emerging as significant use cases. Passenger FCVs and hydrogen buses account for most of the hydrogen‐based transportation sector, leading to a global deployment of ∼120 million FCVs by 2050. Hydrogen production is reliant on fossil fuels, and OECD nations are net importers – especially Japan. To underpin hydrogen production from fossil fuels, carbon capture and storage is required in significant quantities when anticipating a large fleet of FCVs. Stakeholder engagement suggests optimism toward FCV deployment while policy issues identified include the necessity for large‐scale future energy system investment and rapid technical and economic feasibility progress for renewables and electrolysers to achieve a hydrogen economy which is not reliant on fossil fuels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY In order to address climate change and energy security issues, intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power are gaining considerable attention. However, due to their variability and surplus electricity, the expansion of these renewables is an important challenge for power grid management. Various countermeasures such as rechargeable batteries, suppression, and back-up generators, are considered necessary for the physical integration of intermittent renewables to create an efficient and reliable power generation mix. In this context, we developed a high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model to quantitatively assess the amount of surplus electricity available under the large-scale introduction of PV and wind power in the Hokkaido region of Japan and the potential roles for the countermeasures mentioned above. The main feature of the model is the detailed time resolution at 10 min through a year. This allows us to investigate the impact of variation in various short-cycle renewables on surplus electricity and the deployment of rechargeable batteries. The simulation results suggest that if a proportion of PV and wind power expands more than around 10% and 20% of total demand respectively or if the sum of the proportion of PV and wind power exceeds 20%, the need for suppression grows rapidly. The results also suggest that rechargeable batteries are more economically compatible with PV than wind power is. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY This paper investigates Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050 taking into consideration the massive deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and wind power generation under a nuclear energy scenario. The extensive introduction of PV systems and wind power systems is expected to play an important role in enhancing electricity supply security after the Fukushima nuclear power accident, which has increased the uncertainty of the future additional construction of nuclear power plants in Japan. Against this background, we develop an integrated energy assessment model composed of both an econometric energy demand and supply model and an optimal power generation mix model. The latter model is able to explicitly analyze the impact of output fluctuations for various renewable energy sources at a detailed time resolution of 10 min on 365 consecutive days, incorporating the role of stationary battery technology. The simulation results reveal that intermittent fluctuations derived from a high penetration level of those renewables are controlled by quick load following operation by natural gas combined cycle power plants, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary battery technology, and output suppression of PV and wind power generation. The results show as well that massive penetration of renewables does not necessarily require a comparable scale of stationary battery capacity. Additionally, in the scenario, which assumes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants with a lifetime of over 40 years, the required PV capacity in 2050 amounts to more than double the PV installation potential in both buildings and abandoned farmland areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY This paper evaluates the optimal power generation mix considering massive deployment of variable renewable energy and regional power interchange. Japan has initiated the feed-in-tariff (FIT) and expected the significant introduction of PV and wind power for energy self-sufficiency and climate change. However, wind power resources in Japan are concentrated mainly in Hokkaido and the Tohoku region, which are remote from electricity-consuming areas such as Tokyo, and facilitating the considerable deployment of wind power requires the establishment of inter-regional power transmission lines. Against these backgrounds, we develop an optimal power generation mix model including regional electricity exchange as a large-scale linear programming model with 10 million variables and 30 million constraints. The calculation results show that regional grid expansion encourages wind power installation in the Hokkaido and Tohoku regions for power supply to the Tokyo area, where PV power and stationary batteries are alternatively replaced. Grid expansion too promotes the shift of PV installation to the Kyushu and Shikoku regions, which have longer sunshine duration, and interchangeably mitigates PV deployment in other regions through the transport of PV power from those two regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Hydrogen as an energy carrier allows the decarbonization of transport, industry, and space heating as well as storage for intermittent renewable energy. The objective of this paper is to assess the future engineering potential for hydrogen and provide insight to areas of research to help lower economic barriers for hydrogen adoption. This assessment was accomplished by creating top-level system models based on energy requirements for end-use services. Those models were used to investigate four case studies that provide a global view augmented with specific national examples. The first case study assesses the potential penetration of hydrogen using a global energy system model. The second applies the dynamic integrated climate–ecosystem–economics model to derive an estimate of the impact of the diffusion of hydrogen as an energy carrier. The third determines the required growth in renewable power and water usage to power transportation in the United States (US) with hydrogen. The fourth assesses the use of hydrogen for heating in the United Kingdom (UK). In all cases, there appeared to be significant potential for hydrogen adoption and net energetic benefit. Globally, hydrogen has the potential to account for approximately 3% of energy consumption by 2050. In the US, using hydrogen for on-road transportation could enable a reduction in rejected energy of nearly 10%. Also, hydrogen might provide the least cost alternative to decarbonizing space heating in the UK. The research highlights a challenge raised by widespread abandonment of nuclear power. It is currently unclear what the removal of nuclear would do to the cost of energy as nations attempt to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. Nuclear power has also been proposed as a source for large scale production of hydrogen. Finally, this analysis shows that with today's technological maturity making the transition to a hydrogen economy would incur significant costs. Highlights • Explores four case studies of the societal penetration of hydrogen. • Identifies the decarbonizing benefits of hydrogen in transport and heating. • Global model identifies nation specific opportunities for hydrogen penetration. • Cost remains a significant challenge to the ushering in of the hydrogen economy. • Cost reductions in hydrogen production, storage and transmission are necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In this study, the authors developed an Optimal Power Generation Mix model, which takes into account the supply chain of imported and domestically produced hydrogen, also modeling the intermittency of renewable energy at a 10-min resolution, and applied it to the case of Japan, to investigate quantitatively the possibility of achieving zero emission in 2050. Even if the costs of wind and solar PV decline drastically towards 2050 and the huge potentials that have been assumed in the literature are realized, the total system costs escalate significantly with very high shares of intermittent renewables. Since the use of hydrogen produced by excess electricity from renewable power generation sources can only make a slight contribution to reducing this escalation, it would be invaluable to introduce at least a significant amount of electricity generated by "zero-emission thermal power" technologies, including CO 2 -free imported hydrogen or conventional thermal power generation with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Nuclear power is also estimated as being effective in reducing the cost hike associated with achieving zero emissions. The results of this study could contribute to giving insights regarding global deployment of hydrogen-related technologies, as well as to presenting a frame of reference for Japan's future energy policies. Highlights • Variable renewables can contribute greatly to zero emission power in 2050 in Japan. • A very high share of them, however, could escalate the total cost to 20–30 JPY/kWh. • "Zero emission thermal" power generation is a necessity to meet the 2050 target. • Use of imported hydrogen is one possibility for zero emission thermal power. • Use of nuclear power is also an effective way to reduce the cost escalation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]