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In this study, we investigate the extent to which physical water resource availability constraints can limit the deployment of solar thermal and geothermal-based energy resources under future climate scenarios in California. This is accomplished by (1) calculating the water unconstrained potential capacity for solar thermal and geothermal power plants, (2) estimating the available water supply for supporting the water needs of these plants using four climate model simulations under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, and (3) determining the supportable capacity from the available water supply based on power plant cooling type. We show that regional water availability can limit the installable capacity of solar thermal resources to a range of 10.9–52.6% of solar thermal potential and geothermal resources to between 17.9% and 100% of geothermal potential, depending on cooling system and regional water demand levels by the year 2050. The limiting factor for installable capacity was driven by whether the locations of solar thermal and geothermal resources were spatially aligned with precipitation patterns, with cooling system type acting as a secondary factor. In regions with high solar thermal and geothermal potential, reducing water demand from other sectors was important for alleviating the water constraints on solar thermal and geothermal capacity and increasing total resource potential. Water conservation policies can therefore support the deployment of renewable energy resources and should be considered in future water and energy resource planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and increased electrification of space and water heating in buildings can significantly affect future electricity demand and hourly demand profiles, which has implications for electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and capacity requirements. We use EnergyPlus to quantify building energy demand under historical and under several climate change projections of 32 kinds of building prototypes in 16 different climate zones of California and imposed these impacts on a year 2050 electric grid configuration by simulation in the Holistic Grid Resource Integration and Deployment (HIGRID) model. We find that climate change only prompted modest increases in grid resource capacity and negligible difference in greenhouse gas emissions since the additional electric load generally occurred during times with available renewable generation. Heating electrification, however, prompted a 30–40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions but required significant grid resource capacity increases, due to the higher magnitude of load increases and lack of readily available renewable generation during the times when electrified heating loads occurred. Overall, this study translates climate change and electrification impacts to system-wide endpoint impacts on future electric grid configurations and highlights the complexities associated with translating building-level impacts to electric system-wide impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]