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Renewable energy sources (RES) are the key element of sustainable energy systems. To accommodate the intermittency of wind (and solar) electricity generation, energy storage is critical. The aim of the study was to evaluate the potential of wind energy storage in the existing hydropower plant reservoirs in Latvia with the pumped hydroelectric energy storage (PHES) technology, considering the current and projected future wind energy capacities. An algorithm was developed and used for data aggregation and analysis, calculations, and forecasting. The three River Daugava hydroelectric power plants are the largest electricity producers in Latvia, and their generation capacity depends on seasonal variations. Currently, Latvia's electricity generation from RES is the highest during the spring season when maximum hydropower potential is utilized. However, wind energy has a potential to grow and could supplement hydropower throughout the year. Decreasing the existing administrative procedure heaviness to faster achieve the climate neutrality targets and energy autonomy by increasing RES development in Latvia is a way to create sustainable energy production. A rational future scenario in Latvia is to expand wind parks and integrate pumped hydroelectric energy storage systems in the existing cascade hydropower plants.

Institutional capacity is enabling environment for interactions between individuals and organizations. Understanding the changes required regarding the institutional capacity is needed to remove barriers and stimulate transition to sustainable energy systems. The aim of this study was to identify those barriers to understand what type of changes of the institutional capacity is required. Review of publications was done with focus on the three critical domains for clean energy transition – social acceptance, climate and energy policy and critical materials. In result, the most important aspects of the institutional capacity that form the barriers as well as stimulus in the three domains were identified. Causal loop diagram providing a systemic viewpoint on the important elements and interactions within the mentioned three domains is presented. Results of the study can be used for system dynamics model of energy transition.

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is widely used to solve various decision problems through alternative evaluation. MCDA methods can be used in every field that can define a problem, alternatives and criteria. However, finding the appropriate method can influence the results, in this research five MCDA methods have been tested on the renewable energy sector in Latvia to find the best alternative. The main results showed that TOPSIS, VIKOR and PROMETHEE-GAIA have similar priority selection and the highest ranking was selected for hydropower plant, but MULTIMOORA and COPRAS results were beneficial to Solar PV.

The research paper is focused on how to choose the most suitable renewable energy solution using multi-criteria analysis for a district heating system. Making choices is based on indicators – economic, environmental and social. In this case, the study used five indicators: resources costs, totals investments, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, specific weight of renewable energy resources and impact on utilized land. Three situations have been compared – current situation: gas boiler, planned: solar collectors 21 595 m2 + accumulation tank 8000 m3 and alternatives: solar PV panels 5504 m2 – heat pump COP 3 are used in the estimation. The multi-criteria decision-making analysis shows that solar collectors 21 595 m2 + accumulation tank 8000 m3 are considered as the best alternative. The methodology is based on choosing a solution for a district heating company in Latvia.

The EU power sector is under increasing pressure due to rising electricity demand and the need to meet decarbonisation targets. Member states have been active in investing in renewables and building capacity to increase their share of renewables in electricity generation. However, it is important to examine what progress each member state has made in the deployment of renewable energy for electricity generation and what factors influence gross electricity generation from renewable energy. In this study, logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) analysis was used to examine the changes in EU-27 countries' gross electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES), wind, and solar PV from 2012 to 2021. The results show that the RES deployment per capita effect and the RES share effect were the main positive factors for the total gross electricity generation from RES in the EU. In contrast, the RES capacity productivity effect and the energy intensity effect had negative contributions. Population growth had a positive influence but was less significant than the other factors. The deployment of RES per capita effect was the main factor in the overall growth of gross electricity generation from RES in Northern Europe, Central Western Europe, and Central Eastern Europe, according to comparisons between the regional groups. RES share effect was the main driver in Southern Europe. The decrease in RES capacity productivity was the second most important factor influencing the variation in the amount of energy generated by RES in Northern Europe and Central Western Europe. The results could be used to develop more effective and tailored renewable energy policies that take into account the existing main drivers of RES, wind, and solar energy in each of the EU-27 member states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial support is needed in order to implement renewable resources in countries energy sector in the shortest time period. Among the most important supports for European Union Member states are feed-in tariff and feed-in tariff premiums. This research analyses one country’s experience in applying subsidies of the electricity tariff that has caused public protests after 20 years. There are many reasons for this which are analysed in the paper. One of the most important reasons of high subsidies of energy tariffs – coincident mandatory procurement implementation of application of fossil fuel (imported natural gas) for cogeneration units, which has to be classified as external mover (initiator) factor. Energy sector’s potential development scenarios with or without support for renewable energy resources are being analysed in the paper.

Energy consumption across industries accounts for more than seventy-five per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. Energy is a top priority for achieving climate goals and low greenhouse gas emission levels. The comparison of sustainable development patterns in renewable energy sources is carried out for all the different sectors analysed for the study, such as industry, services, agriculture, transport, and households. Specifically, researchers examined trends in each of these sectors. This study aims to create a model that combines qualitative and quantitative research approaches to obtain the most objective and descriptive data on RES technologies used in different sectors of the economy. According to the results, both solar energy and biomass have strong development potential overall, which is reflected in the higher average values of the overall results. This is also the case when looking at the impacts individually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A vital component of achieving climate neutrality in the future involves bolstering energy efficiency measures in educational institutions and improving the overall knowledge on sustainable solutions. To achieve fruitful outcomes, the active involvement of various stakeholders, such as managers, teaching staff, and students, is indispensable. By implementing energy-efficient building systems, advancing the use of renewable energy sources, and incorporating sustainable practices into the curriculum, educational institutions can decrease their environmental impact and conserve resources for future generations. Active participation from all stakeholders, including managers, teaching staff, and students, is essential for the success of these efforts. Providing students with a comprehensive education on sustainability equips them to apply this knowledge in their future professions, thus contributing to a more sustainable society. To gain insights into the existing state of sustainability within educational systems, a comprehensive study of educational institutions was undertaken. To assess and compare schools' sustainability, a composite indicator was developed. The study's findings reveal that the implementation of mandatory and optional measures can lead to a substantial reduction in primary energy consumption by 39% and greenhouse gas emissions by 34% in educational institutions. The average abandonment costs for mandatory measures are 5.87 EUR/kgCO2/year, but the average value for optional measures is 33.80 EUR/kgCO2/year. It is suggested demonstration projects be implemented in institutions where specialists in RE, mechatronics, building engineering systems, and environmental technologies are trained by showcasing technologies needed for the transition to climate neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality in municipalities can be achieved by combining individual heating and district heating solutions involving the use of renewable energy sources. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages, but the best solution depends on the specific circumstances of each municipality. As an environmentally friendly and efficient energy use, a decentralised heat supply contributes to achieving energy conservation and emissions reduction goals. Decentralised energy use, such as solar collectors with thermal energy storage or biomass as a resource, reduces dependence on centralised heat generation and transmission. The appropriate infrastructure for connection to district heating networks has not yet been built. On the other hand, it is easier to make investments to construct proper infrastructure in the case of large-scale centralised heat supplies. Moreover, a centralised heat supply with renewable energy sources can provide more inhabitants with renewable heat energy. Within the framework of the study, the possibilities of using renewable energy sources in one of the municipalities of Latvia—the Carnikava parish of Ādaži Municipality—are analysed. The study examines two scenario complexes including individual heating solutions in buildings or district heating solutions with a centralised approach. The study evaluates several alternatives to increase the share of RES (solar collectors, biomass, heat pumps, etc.) in the centralised heat supply. To evaluate individual RES solutions in various municipal buildings, this study evaluates alternatives with different technical solutions that increase the use of RES in heat supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A system dynamics modeling approach was used to analyze the impact of economical mechanisms on CO2 emissions from the Latvian district heating system that is not covered by the European Union (EU) Emission Trading System (non-ETS). Three policy instruments were included in the system dynamic model: carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient building renovations with the aim to decrease energy consumption. Eight development scenarios were examined, taking into account different policy mixes for the transition of the heat network to the low-temperature regime. The heat tariff was used as the main indicator to determine the pace and structure of the technology change. The existing natural gas technologies and three renewable energy technologies (biomass combustion equipment, heat pump, and solar collectors with accumulation) were included in the model. Modeling results show substantial CO2 reduction potential; however, the results are highly dependent on the applied financial instruments. It is recommended to apply a policy mix, including all the proposed policy instruments—carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient renovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper uses system dynamics modelling to analyse the development of bioenergy; economic system that uses biotechnology instead of conventional technology. The research is directed towards the use of biomass in the production of higher added value bioproducts in the forestry and agricultural sectors. This paper emphasizes and evaluates the energy sector, which uses low quality wood. The main aim for this research study was to build a framework to analyse the development options for wood pellet production. A system dynamics model was created of energy wood supply, processing and consumption. Production capacity, energy consumption, technology efficiency, required labour, the price of wood, energy and labour are all taken into account. Validation and verification tests with available data and information have been carried out. These indicate that the model constitutes a viable dynamic hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to plans of the European Union (EU), Latvia needs to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in the non-ETS sector by 6% until 2030 in comparison to 2005. Many policy instruments are evaluated to support GHG emissions reduction. A system dynamics modelling approach was used to analyze the impact of supporting mechanisms on CO 2 emissions from the Latvian district heating system that is not covered by the European Union Emission Trading System (non-ETS). Three policy instruments were included in the system dynamics model: carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies and energy efficiency measures with co-financing for building renovations with the aim to decrease energy consumption. Three development scenarios were examined, taking into account these supporting mechanisms. The existing natural gas technologies and three renewable energy technologies (biomass combustion equipment, heat pump and solar collectors with accumulation) were included in the model. Modelling results show substantial CO 2 reduction potential by combining different supporting mechanisms. An 80% of CO 2 emissions reduction could be reached by applying a policy mix, which includes all proposed policy instruments – carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies and funding for energy efficient renovation. The findings of this article are relevant for all countries with district heating who strive towards CO 2 emissions reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to the analysis of research about the share of renewable energy in energy production as well as the use of solar energy for electricity generation in the Kazakh energy sector. The study results were compared with analogous data obtained in relation to Latvia and the European Union. The impact of electricity obtained from solar energy as well as energy efficiency impact on CO 2 emissions reduction directly in the food industry is calculated. During the study specific indicators in Latvia and Kazakhstan are compared using the comparison method. On the basis of the results of the study it can be concluded that under the given assumptions CO 2 emissions could be reduced by 83.90 ktCO 2 /year in the food industry in Kazakhstan, but in Latvia – by 5.31 ktCO 2 /year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Article is about development scenarios for the Latvian district heating system in which a policy instrument for energy efficiency improvement is used to achieve a higher share of renewable energy. The system dynamics model was used to determine whether it is possible to use energy efficiency policy to accelerate a shift from fossil fuels to renewables in district heating. In addition, the task was to determine measures which would help to remove barriers for renewable resource technology implementation. Six different development scenarios were viewed in the article. Results reveal that increased energy efficiency at heat source have no direct impact on fossil energy and renewable energy ratio. By increasing energy efficiency it is only possible to vary renewable energy share between different renewable technologies. It is possible to reach 40% biomass energy share and 30% solar energy share in 2030 when policy is used only for biomass technologies, but 20% biomass energy share and 50% solar energy share could be achieved by implementing policy only for solar technologies. The main barrier for switching from fossil energy to renewable energy is a lot of new gas boilers which were installed during reconstructions at many heat sources in the past few years. It is possible to reach even 97.47% renewable energy share in district heating in 2030 if the service life for gas boilers is reduced to 5 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study development patterns of Latvian electricity market. It is done based on a newly developed computer-aided simulation model. System dynamics approach was used to simulate long-term development of electricity sector in the region under the existing policy design. Results demonstrate that renewable energy sources have a high potential to integrate in the electricity generation balance. Important preconditions for this to happen are: presence of appropriate support measures, a continuous technological progress and fossil fuel price increase. Under such scenario around 70% carbon dioxide emission savings can be achieved by 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change considerations stimulate to switch to wider use of renewable energy sources for electricity generation. However in case of solar and wind energy, the use is burdened with non-regular generation trends. Electricity storage technologies, for example heat pumps, are observed as a potential technology to solve the non-regularity issue of the renewable electricity generation, reduction of fossil fuel generated greenhouse gas emissions and increasing the share of renewables in energy production sector. The process of heat pumps integration in district heating system can differ for each heating and electricity production and distribution system.Energy system's behaviour types plays significant role while performing an integration efficiency analysis. The present paper analyses the possibilities of integration of heat pumps in district heating systems of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania as a tool for accumulation of renewable resources generated electricity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses possibilities for CO 2 emission reduction into the centralized district heating system by using the index decomposition analysis: Kaya identity equation. The classical Kaya equation is complemented with an energy efficiency indicator of a district heating system. The paper focuses on the impact of the Kaya equation components on the CO 2 emission reduction. The elaborated methodology is tested in order to analyze possibilities for CO 2 emission reduction at district heating systems in Latvia. 3 scenarios were formed for the forecast of the CO 2 emission reduction. In case the current model for the state development is continued (scenario1) CO 2 emissions will be reduced for 13%; however, in the scenario of orderly and balanced DH systems they will reduce for 29% by 2020 as compared to 2012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study development patterns of Latvian electricity market based on a newly developed computer-aided simulation model. A system dynamics approach was applied to simulate long-term development of electricity sector in the region under the existing policy design. Results show that despite the relatively large share of renewable energy sources in Latvian electricity generation mix, natural gas will remain its significant role in national electricity supply. Alternative policy strategies should be developed to allow achieving CO 2 emission reductions greater than 30% by 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A zero-emission pathway for the Nordic and Baltic region in Europe is described based on the comprehensive policy and scenario analyses, accompanied by energy system modelling. The analyses show that a least-cost strategy would massively employ renewable energy, particularly in the power sector. Through strong coupling across energy sectors and countries, electricity would play a central role in the decarbonization of the main energy sectors. In particular power-to-heat conversion, where heat storage appears important in addition to existing hydropower. Technical and regulatory barriers in front of increased sector coupling and flexibility were identified, and policy measures are proposed to overcome these. In addition to a high carbon price, dynamic tariffs and taxation of electricity would be important to allow market signals for flexibility to reach end-users. A stronger power transmission connection from the Nordics to the mainland-Europe and the United Kingdom would be beneficial for the emission reductions and renewable energy use. The transition pathway analysis points out socio-technical issues such as social acceptance of large-scale new infrastructures (e.g., wind, cables). The energy system optimizations indicate that most of the investments needed for the zero-emission pathway until 2050 would take place already by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the indicators that describe the overall efficiency of the district heating system and restrictions for its transition towards a 4th generation district heating system. The object of this case study is a district heating company with a modern biomass combined heat and power plant – “Fortum”, in Jelgava. Possible development scenarios for the district heating company moving towards a 4th generation district heating system were analysed. The scenarios were compared via technological, economic and bioeconomic indicators and evaluated for their restrictions for limiting long-term sustainable development. The scenarios which include production of new biomass products (bio-oil) are the most sustainable solutions that allow to increase the added value from 58 €/t wood to 80 €/t wood . The heat tariff was analysed in order to identify the economic feasibility of the development scenarios. Reducing tariffs by improving district heating’s operation is the only unsustainable solution for the district heating company because it reduces the company’s possibility to invest in future developments. It is concluded that bioeconomic development scenarios can support sustainability of the district heating systems. Development decisions need to be taken in due time before the consumption decreases because of energy efficiency measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is devoted to the development of the non-Emissions Trading Scheme for the district heating systems. To select indicators characterizing overall operation of the non-Emissions Trading Scheme district heating system, the article analyses various aspects (type of fuel, temperature regime, level of building energy efficiency) that impact the development of a district heating system model, which strives to reach 4th generation district heating system and to reduces greenhouse emission gases. To determine efficiency rating of the district heating system, a multi-criteria model is developed using selected indicators. The most suitable temperature regime of district heating systems is analyzed for a new buildings and exiting dwelling area depending on end-user heat energy consumption. Research methodology includes algorithm with several modules. The multi-criteria analysis evaluates different district heating systems and identifies optimal solution of 12 scenarios taking into account different criteria. The TOPSIS tool is integrated to find the optimal solutions. Results of the multi-criteria analysis confirm that scenario that is the closest to the ideal solution from the point of view of district heating company, sharply differs from the best scenario of the developers. From the point of view of district heating company the optimal solution is the lowest temperature regime 60/30 and wood chips as energy source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research identifies and describes administrative procedures for implementing RES electricity generation infrastructure projects in Baltic and Nordic countries. The administrative processes of installing small to large solar parks and onshore wind farms for electricity generation were assessed, looking at several criteria such as the timeline, complexity, information availability, impact of public opinion, and local authorities (municipalities). The methodology developed allows evaluating administrative procedures using a multi-criteria analysis method, resulting in a single-score quantification that can be further utilized in complex energy simulation models. The obtained results allow identifying the potential recommendations for process optimization in the analysed countries. For instance, the introduction of a single point of contact as in Norway, the consolidation of the environmental impact assessment and spatial planning phases as in Finland, and the simplification of the microgeneration and small-scale installation permitting process as in Lithuania. • Administrative processes for installing solar PV parks and wind farms were evaluated based on 11 criteria. • Methodology developed allows for evaluating administrative procedures in different countries using MCDA. • The analyses provide a single-score quantification which can be further utilized in complex energy simulation models. • Transparency for installing wind farms and solar PV parks could be increased trough publicly available guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the transition from conventional district heating (DH) system to a 4th generation DH (4GDH) system using system dynamics modeling and economic feasibility analysis. Six alternative scenarios are studied. Energy saving measures reduce energy consumption, CO 2 emissions and installed capacity of heating equipment thus facilitating the transition of the DH system towards zero emission system. Reduction of the required installed heating capacity allows implementing a low-temperature regime for heat distribution networks. For four of the analyzed scenarios this regime was achieved without increase of electricity consumption for heat supply. Results show that the implementation of 4GDH depends on the policies applied. The research identifies a balance point between the implementation of energy efficiency measures at the source and at heat consumers’ side. The article shows how the price of a fossil fuel influence the share of heat energy production and the balance point between investment at the source and heat consumers side. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes district heating system efficiency by using benchmarking system. The 26 biggest Latvian DH companies were taken as case study for analysis. Two main components were distinguished from existing district heating systems tariffs: cost of fuel in tariff and other costs. Non-linear regression model is used for benchmarking analysis. Equation, which describes other costs as dependent variable, whereas fuel part of costs in tariff as independent variable was obtained. Performance of Latvian district heating companies were evaluated by using various efficiency indicators describing systems technical, scale, dynamic and financial parameters. Data envelopment analysis was used for measuring efficiency of these companies by taking into account multiple factors. In order to indicate main parameters that influence heat energy tariff and efficiency of all district heating system, sensitivity analysis by using system dynamic model developed in previous study was carried out. The model finds out the possibility to introduce the 4th generation district heating system in Latvia. Model includes the transition of heat network to the low-temperature regime at 80% share of the renewable energy. Moreover, matrix with district heating system efficiency parameters, which are most vital for optimization, was made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the article, a possibility to introduce the 4th generation district heating (4GDH) in Latvia is analyzed with the system dynamic modeling. Three policy instruments were included into the system dynamic model: subsidies, instrument for risk reduction and instrument for efficiency increase, and their impact on the system operation was analyzed. Six development scenarios are examined in the article, two of which are supplemented with the transition of heat network to the low-temperature regime at a different share of the renewable energy (60%, 80%, 95%). The heat tariff was used as the main indicator determining the pace and structure of the technology change. In the model the existing natural gas technology was included and three technologies of the renewable energy – biomass combustion equipment, solar collectors with the accumulation and heat pumps. Results of the modeling shows that scenario, at which no policy instruments are used, reduce CO 2 emissions for 58.6% until 2030; but it is possible to achieve a zero emission level, in case political instruments are used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union has given a long-term commitment towards a low-carbon society. Power sector is to play an important role in achieving ambitious emission reduction goals. This article presents results of a research aimed at evaluating development of the Baltic power system under current framework conditions. Special focus is put on renewable energy analysis to estimate the potential of power sector decarbonization. A dynamic energy-economy model was developed by applying system dynamics modelling approach in order to evaluate changes in the energy system till 2050. Underlying structure of the model is based on energy resource flows according to the national electricity mix of each Baltic State. The model calculates energy generation costs of each technology taking into account national support schemes. Based on cost estimation, the installed capacity of each energy resource is determined. Modelling results suggest that wind energy has the potential to become dominant in the Baltic region. This is explained by increasing competitiveness of wind-generated power price compared to fossil-fuel-based generation. Solar energy has the potential to become popular from 2025 onwards due to decreasing investment costs. The market share of other renewable electricity technologies, such as hydro and biomass, will continue to increase reaching maximum between 2020 and 2030. Biogas plants are still not expected to play considerable role in electricity generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Latvian district heating system historically is characterized with a high share of imported natural gas. The paper looks at the situation where specific policy tools significantly increase the proportion of renewables, in particular of wood fuel, in the energy balance. Within this context a system dynamics model was developed to identify the most suitable policy from the long term perspective for the replacement of the fossil fuel with the local biomass at the district heating. The policy instruments included in the model are: national subsidies for replacement of fossil fuel technologies, short-term informative campaign to decrease the investment risks related to the use of wood fuel-based technologies, implementation of Research and Design strategies aimed at the increase of efficiency of the wood fuel technology, and implementation of the Emission Trading Scheme and the CO 2 taxation. The modelling results show that national level climate policy measures are substantial for promoting the use of renewable energy. The combinations of the above mentioned policy instruments significantly increase the share of wood fuel in the Latvian district heating system. In addition, the Emission Trading Scheme confirms its essential role in promoting the use of renewable energy within the district heating sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]