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For lithium-ion batteries and supercapacitors in hybrid power storage facilities, both steady degradation and random shock contribute to their failure. To this end, in this paper, we propose to introduce the degradation-threshold-shock (DTS) model for their remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. Non-homogeneous compound Poisson process (NHCP) is proposed to simulate the shock effect in the DTS model. Considering the long-range dependence and heavy-tailed characteristics of the degradation process, fractional Weibull process (fWp) is employed in the diffusion term of the stochastic degradation model. Furthermore, the drift and diffusion coefficients are constantly updated to describe the environmental interference. Prior to the model training, steady degradation and shock data must be separated, based on the three-sigma principle. Degradation data for the lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) and ultracapacitors are employed for model verification under different operation protocols in the power system. Recent deep learning models and stochastic process-based methods are utilized for model comparison, and the proposed model shows higher prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roller bearing degradation features fractal characteristics such as self-similarity and long-range dependence (LRD). However, the existing remaining useful life (RUL) prediction models are memoryless or short-range dependent. To this end, we propose a RUL prediction model based on fractional Brownian motion (FBM). Bearing faults can happen in different places, and thus their degradation features are difficult to extract accurately. Through variational mode decomposition (VMD), the original degradation feature is decomposed into several components of different frequencies. The monotonicity, robustness and trends of the different components are calculated. The frequency component with the best metric values is selected as the training data. In this way, the performance of the prediction model is hugely improved. The unknown parameters in the degradation model are estimated by the maximum likelihood algorithm. The Monte Carlo method is applied to predict the RUL. A case study of a bearing is presented and the prediction performance is evaluated using multiple indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remaining useful life prediction guarantees a reliable and safe operation of turbofan engines. Long-range dependence (LRD) and heavy-tailed characteristics of degradation modeling make this method advantageous for the prediction of RUL. In this study, we propose fractional Lévy stable motion for degradation modeling. First, we define fractional Lévy stable motion simulation algorithms. Then, we demonstrate the LRD and heavy-tailed property of fLsm to provide support for the model. The proposed method is validated with the C-MAPSS dataset obtained from the turbofan engine. Principle components analysis (PCA) is conducted to extract sources of variance. Experimental data show that the predictive model based on fLsm with exponential drift exhibits superior accuracy relative to the existing methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of wind turbine planetary gearboxes is crucial for the reliable operation of new energy power systems. However, the interpretability of the current RUL prediction models is not satisfactory. To this end, a multi-stage RUL prediction model is proposed in this work, with an interpretable metric-based feature selection algorithm. In the proposed model, the advantages of neural networks and long-range-dependent stochastic processes are combined. In the offline training stage, a general representation of the degradation trend is learned with the meta-long short-term memory neural network (meta-LSTM) model. The inevitable measurement error in the sensor reading is modelled by white Gaussian noise. During the online RUL prediction stage, fractional generalized Pareto motion (fGPm) with an adaptive diffusion is employed to model the stochasticity of the planetary gearbox degradation. In the case study, real planetary gearbox degradation data are used for the model validation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]