1. Forecasting Electricity Outage in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa using Trend Projection and Artificial Neural Networks Techniques
- Author
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Evans E. Ojo, R. Pillay Carpanen, Adeniyi Kehinde Onaolapo, and David G. Dorrell
- Subjects
Electric power system ,Artificial neural network ,Computer science ,business.industry ,Reliability (computer networking) ,Overhead (computing) ,Computational intelligence ,Electricity ,business ,Fault (power engineering) ,Projection (set theory) ,Reliability engineering - Abstract
The majority of faults on electric power systems are traceable to distribution networks due to the exposure of the networks to different adverse climatic conditions, among other factors. Power outages due to climatic factors are inevitable since a major part of a distribution network is made up of overhead lines and exposed to different unfavorable weather conditions. Climatic factors need to be fully considered when designing a power system model in order to achieve a meaningful system reliability improvement. The projection of power system outage requires a model with high accuracy, taking climatic conditions into consideration. Conventional models rely only on fault data and do not consider climatic factors, and so they have very low accuracy. This research proposes a computational intelligence model using historical fault and climatic data sets of Newcastle, South Africa. Three models are developed in this paper: the trend projection (TP) model, and two artificial neural network (ANN) models (Models 1 and 2). The performance of the models are examined using statistical parameters. The results of the ANN models were satisfactory unlike the trend projection model; thereby illustrating the efficacy of the computational methods.
- Published
- 2021
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