Search

The financial resilience of a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) plant is investigated through a hybrid modeling approach. With linked sub-models for economics, reliability and process safety, simulation results of the underlying transient nonlinear phenomena are shown, which represent the complex behavior of operation of the FPSO. The economics model is based on the Norwegian tax system with net cash flow as the main quantity. In the reliability model, statistical methods are used to obtain probability density functions for individual topside and subsea components. The safety model is centered around EHS 1 1 Environment, health, safety. time, in which a sufficiently high skill level is aimed to be maintained. Ample emphasis is given to parsimonious modeling, in which various engineering concepts are used in a way which avoids visual pollution. It is concluded that organizations that operate FPSO plants (under Arctic conditions) are not financially resilient per se , other than through a previously accumulated cushion of cash, which can rapidly deplete due to insufficient maintenance and repair of equipment, and even more so in case of major or frequent accidents. A (much) more conservative revenue stream should therefore be assumed as ground truth when considering exploration and exploitation of petroleum reservoirs in sensible (deep sea) ecosystems, as these are characterized by low natural resilience and also low potential for recovery. This work provides a set of analytical tools for technical managers, re-insurers and system engineers from the petroleum industry, which give a quantitative and more holistic perspective on the financial risks involved in such projects. The outlined general methodology, domain-driven design for implementation, and complete model description allow to rebuild applications for other contexts. • Case study using System Dynamics with heavy use of field data. • FPSO operation based on Norwegian economy and Arctic conditions. • Inter-/trans-disciplinary approach covering economics, technology, and safety. • Tutorial style and complete description of models and methods. • Introduction of financial resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• System reliability analysis methodology for solid oxide fuel cell. • Combination of physical modeling and experiments. • Considering start-up effects and degradation during constant ower generation mode. A reliability analysis methodology for a multi-stack solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) system is presented based on physical modeling and experimental data. The constructed failure probability function comprises three operation phases: (i) as-fabricated, (ii) start-up, and (iii) constant power generation. In-house experimental data are used to capture the behavior during start-up and normal operation, including drifts of the operating point due to degradation. The physics-based model provides a theoretical structure, but alternatives are discussed as well which are particularly suitable for experimentalists. The failure probability function can be used to calculate the reliability of a multi-stack SOFC system. The effect of operating stacks under over-load conditions in terms of degradation is discussed. It is shown that the customized failure probability function better explains the dependency on operating conditions compared to standard parametric distribution functions. The originality of this work is mainly twofold: first, the construction of the failure probability function of a multi-stack SOFC using experimental data for degradation as well as start-up on a system level; second, the focus on technological implications covered by the methodology. Hence, this systems engineering methodology aims to provide a process for reliability analysis in which the strength of both approaches are utilized, namely keeping sufficient parameter-dependency by means of the physics-based approach together with the simplicity of stochastic methods. This methodology is not limited to SOFC but may also be applicable to other modular (electrochemical) systems. Besides references on SOFC from a theoretical and experimental perspective, the extended bibliography also includes references on reliability analysis and engineering design, which may act as a starting point for related system analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]