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Background: Cancer burden in the Czech population ranks among the highest worldwide, which introduces a strong need for a prospective modelling of cancer incidence and prevalence rates. Moreover, a prediction of number of cancer patients requiring active antitumor therapy is also an important issue. This paper presents the stage-specific predictions of cancer incidence and prevalence, and the stage- and region-specific patients requiring active antitumor therapy for the most common cancer diagnoses in the Czech Republic for years 2015 and 2020. The stage-specific estimates are also presented with regard to the treatment phase as newly diagnosed patients, patients treated for non-terminal recurrence, and patients treated for terminal recurrence., Patients and Methods: Data of the Czech National Cancer Registry from 1977 to 2011 has been used for the analysis, omitting the records of patients diagnosed as death certificate only or at autopsy. In total, 1,777,775 incidences have been considered for the estimation using a statistical model utilizing solely the population-based cancer registry data. All estimates have been calculated with respect to the changing demographic structure of the Czech population and the clinical stage at diagnosis., Results: Considering year 2011 as the baseline, we predict 89%, 15%, 31% and 32% increase in prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer incidence, respectively, in 2020 resulting in 13,153, 9,368, 8,695, and 8,604 newly dia-g--nosed cancer patients in that year, respectively. Regarding cancer prevalence in 2020, the estimated increase is 140%, 40%, 51%, and 17% for prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer, respectively, meaning that more than 100,000 prevalent female breast cancer patients as well as more than 100,000 prevalent prostate cancer patients are expected in the Czech Republic. The estimated numbers of patients requiring active antitumor therapy for prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer in the Czech Republic in 2020 are 23,652, 14,006, 14,759 and 8,272; respectively., Conclusions: The analysis documents a serious increase in cancer incidence and prevalence in the Czech Republic in years 2015 and 2020 when compared to the situation in 2011. Regarding the estimated numbers of patients requiring active antitumor therapy, the model confirms a continuous increase that must be accounted for in the future planning of health care in the Czech Republic.

Background: The Czech Republic ranks among the countries with the highest cancer burden in Europe as well as worldwide. The purpose of this study is to summarize longterm trends in the cancer burden and to provide up-to-date estimates of incidence and mortality rates after 2011., Data and Methods: The Czech National Cancer Registry (CNCR) was instituted in 1977 and contains information collected over a 34-year period of standardized registration covering 100% of cancer diagnoses within the entire Czech population. The CNCR analysis is supported by demographic data and by the Death Records Database. An overview of the epidemiology of malignant tumors in the Czech population is available online at www.svod.cz., Results: All neoplasms, including nonmelanoma skin cancer, reached a crude incidence rate of almost 802 cases per 100,000 men and 681 cases per 100,000 women in 2011. The annual mortality rate exceeded 258 deaths per 100,000 individuals; in other words, more than 27,000 individuals die of cancer each year. The overall incidence of malignancies has increased with a growth index of +27.6% during the last decade (2001- 2011), while the mortality rate has been stabilized over the time span (growth index in 2001- 2011: - 5.0%). Consequently, the prevalence has significantly increased in the observed period and exceeded 475,000 cases in 2011. In addition to demographic aging of the Czech population, the cancer burden has also increased due to the growing incidence of multiple primary tumors (recently more than 15% of the total incidence). The most frequent diagnoses include colorectal cancer, lung cancer, breast cancer, and prostate cancer. Although some neoplasms are increasingly diagnosed at an early stage (e. g. the proportion of stage I or II was 75.3% for female breast cancer and 84.2% for skin melanoma), the numbers of early diagnosed cases are generally insufficient, even in the case of highly prevalent cancers such as colorectal carcinoma (only 46.1% of incident cases are diagnosed at stage I or II, according to recent data)., Conclusion: Population-based data on malignant tumors are available in the Czech Republic. The data survey can help us define national cancer management priorities. The current priority is to achieve a sustained reduction of cases diagnosed at an advanced stage and reduction of the significant regional differences in diagnostic efficiency.