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This study investigates the mobilizing potential of positive news framing on opponents of a referendum proposal. On the basis of an experiment (N = 470 ), using bootstrapping as a method to assess conditional indirect effects, mediation analysis showed that positive news framing-endorsing a referendum proposal regarding European Union (EU) integration-was perceived as negative by opponents and mobilized those with higher levels of skepticism toward the EU to turn out and vote because of increased risk perception. This 'reversed mobilization' effect was contingent upon existing levels of self-efficacy, yielding evidence for a 'double conditional indirect effect' of positive news framing on turnout intention via risk perception which was strongest among those showing greater levels of EU skepticism as well as stronger self-efficacy beliefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research is unclear about which citizens support the use of referendums and how a referendum campaign can affect support for direct democracy. This study investigates, first, the factors that determine support for referendums and, second, the role of the campaign in changing support. This is done in the context of the 2005 Dutch EU Constitution referendum. A media content analysis of national media (N = 6,370) is combined with panel survey data (N = 1,008). The results suggest that those who felt more politically disaffected were more supportive of referendums. Furthermore, higher levels of exposure to tabloid style campaign news led to increased approval of referendums. In a second step, the mechanism behind this effect was tested using an experiment (N = 580). When exposed to negative tabloid style news about a referendum proposal, opponents perceive the assumed consequences as more of a threat. This threat perception increased their support for a referendum on the issue at stake as a means to prevent the proposal. The article concludes with a discussion about the conditions under which a dynamic like this is likely to unfold and when alternative explanations for referendum support apply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In June 2005 the Dutch electorate rejected the EU constitutional treaty in a national referendum. The current study, which focuses on vote choice and the campaign, draws on complementary explanations for referendum voting behavior. We investigated how attitudes towards the EU influenced the intention to vote No ahead of the campaign as well as the impact of the campaign and the media on the final vote. Therefore, we combined a media content analysis (n = 6,643) with panel survey data (n = 1,379). Results reveal that prior to the actual start of the campaign, existing skepticism towards the EU was the strongest determinant for the intention to vote No and served as a mediator for the influence of other relevant factors such as disapproval of the incumbent government, feelings of national identity and fear of globalization. During the campaign the referendum topic was highly visible in the news with a positive tone towards the Constitution. In this context, higher levels of exposure to referendum news increased the likelihood of voters to switch over to the Yes side. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]