Search

Copyright of Taiwan Economic Forecast & Policy is the property of Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Economic Forecast & Policy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Taiwan Economic Forecast & Policy is the property of Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Economic Forecast & Policy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The main objective of this paper is to explore the factors influencing new firm formation in Taiwan. The paper makes use of both cross-sectional and time-series data for the period 1986–2001, using the fixed effect model to try to determine the factors affecting new firm formation. The impacts of industry health, production costs, capital cost, number of employed persons, the unemployment rate, and the economic growth rate are found to be more or less as anticipated. However, only production costs, capital cost, and the unemployment rate are significant with confidence levels of 95% and 90%, respectively. The results also suggest that Taiwan currently is located at the unemployment borderline proposed by Hamilton, and thus a recession-push is already operating, while a prosperity-pull is starting to make itself felt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the groundwater recession characteristics and its relation with geological conditions is of critical importance to the estimation of groundwater recharge in regolith-bedrock aquifers, which commonly occur in the mountainous areas of Taiwan. This paper examines the role of geological and hydrogeological factors in controlling rainfall-induced recharge processes. Groundwater and rainfall data were compiled from 29 monitoring wells and rainfall stations situated in the mid- and upper-Choshuei river basin in central Taiwan. In light of analyzing the outcome of the groundwater-level response to rainfall, the relation between the effective rainfall and groundwater-level fluctuation tends to be positive, and rainfall events with high intensity firmly control the groundwater recharge process in Taiwan mountainous areas. Permeable geological units likely dominate the groundwater-level variations. Besides, recession rates in the vertical direction varying with geological conditions were obviously found in each well site. To improve the efficiency of the water table fluctuation (WTF) method on extrapolating recession rates, two rating systems for evaluating hydraulic properties of regolith and fractured bedrock, respectively, were proposed and applied to develop the effective techniques linked to the quantification of recession characteristics varying with depths for each well. By regression analysis, the dependence of the hydraulic property rating system on the recession rate was performed, and the derived regression equation for each well can be used to estimate the recession rate with depths. Finally, the recharge estimation with the above techniques in Taiwan mountainous areas was established, and the present method of estimating recharge was compared with the existing method. The difference between the two methods was obviously found. Thus, recharge estimation in mountainous areas should take account of complex geological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of the Asian financial crisis on the relationship between client economic importance and auditor independence. Using data from 1994 to 2001 in six Asian markets (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand), we find that auditors are less likely to compromise their independence for important clients after a crisis. The result is consistent with Coffee's (2001) crash-then-law hypothesis and supports the notion that financial crisis triggers public concern over auditors' independence. Furthermore, we find the effect of financial crisis on auditor independence is more pronounced in weaker investor protection regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - This paper aims to examine the concept of "consumer animosity", model its antecedents, and assess its influence on intention to purchase. Design/methodology/approach - Survey questionnaires were distributed by a quasi-random sample of school pupils across Taiwan to an adult member of their household, for completion and return. A return rate of 70 percent yielded 456 usable questionnaires, the data from which were analysed by the LISREL structural equation modelling software. Findings - The results suggest that perceived personal economic hardship and the normative influence of members of a consumers' reference group have a positive impact on the phenomenon of consumer animosity, which in turn negatively affects the intentions of consumers in Taiwan to purchase products originating in mainland China and Japan. Contradicting previous studies, consumer animosity was found to be dependent on judgments of product quality. Research limitations/implications - The research model was built from data collected by non-probability sampling in a single country. There was no evidence of sampling bias, but future studies would benefit from inclusion of more independent variables and a wider geographical scope. Practical implications - The findings contain many practical lessons for planners of export marketing strategy. Originality/value - Two existing theories of social behaviour are integrated with the concept of consumer animosity to explain consumption choices in an international context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates exchange rate and monetary policies over the business cycle in Taiwan. We first characterize the business cycle dynamics in Taiwan and identify foreign shocks as the main cause of any fluctuations. We then briefly review the exchange rate system and policy operating in Taiwan since the early 1980s. Finally, we investigate the current recession, and discuss how the Taiwanese government is dealing with the economic slowdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, Taiwan's bank credits slowed down dramatically while the economy experienced one of the worst recessions in recent history. Whether the slowdown was mainly caused by the demand or the supply effect is unclear. An innovative empirical approach is adopted that uses the short-side rule of bank loans' market transactions to help infer the relative shifts of the demand and supply. For the disaggregate data, a novel model is proposed that accommodates the short-side rule and yet requires only data from the borrowers or the lenders. We find that a large decline in supply is mainly responsible for the slowdown, and we identify the deposit drain and the increase in overdue loans as the main contributing factors. Results also indicate that smaller firms are disproportionately affected by the credit cutback, and that shrinkages in alternative financing sources might have indirectly contributed to the excess demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All 11 cases of listed banks in Taiwan involved in merger and acquisition during 2000–2006 are examined. In this paper, the cumulative abnormal returns of acquiring banks two days after merger announcement are found to be negative, although target banks' shareholders enjoy higher abnormal returns. For acquiring banks, the post-merger cost efficiencies are not improved. State-owned banks are more efficient and profitable. Operating restrictions on banks and the recession during sample period are the major reasons. It is also suggested that several state-owned banks should be preserved as a means of improving social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan had an eventful year in 2022. Cross-Strait tensions increased dramatically after Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei. China's belligerent actions in response have invited international condemnation and triggered more official engagements between Taiwan and the global community. Amid this tension, Taiwan continued its democratic governance by holding local elections in November. A change in COVID policy led to a surge in cases, but the initial high death rate had declined by the end of the year, thanks to high inoculation rates. In a global economic slowdown, Taiwan outperformed its neighboring countries. With Beijing's alignment to Moscow after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the close US--Taiwan relationship further strengthened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amid increasing interest in city branding in East Asia, the municipalities of Gunsan (South Korea) and Chiayi (Taiwan) chose colonial heritage-making as their city branding strategies to recreate their cities' identities and regenerate their economies. Both cities were mostly built by Japanese imperial authorities and thrived in the 1920s and 1930s but deteriorated in the post-colonial period. Seeking to overcome long economic recessions, these two small cities endeavoured to rebrand in the twenty-first century. Their cases illustrate novel approaches to adopting colonial heritage-making at the small city level in national contexts where the management of colonial heritage is conducted mostly as part of the nation-building process. By comparing post-colonial Gunsan and Chiayi, this study presents comparative perspectives on post-colonial city branding processes and sheds light on different post-colonial responses to colonial heritage-making. The strategic and pragmatic preservation of colonial heritage in these two small cities has simultaneously produced city narratives of 'commodified' colonial modernity that represented the would-be cities' aspiration for being identified on the global map. We analysed the effects of 'commodified' colonial modernity – the recolonisation of past by now – and identified possibilities for alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian economic crises of 1997 and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) had far-reaching impacts on Asian and other global economies. Turmoil in the banking and finance sectors led to downturns in stock markets, resulting in bankruptcies, house repossessions and high unemployment. These crises have been shown to be correlated with a deterioration in mental health and an increase in suicides, and it is important to understand the implication of these impacts and how such recessions affect the health of affected populations. With the benefit of hindsight, did lessons learned from the negative effects of the 1997 Asian economic recession impact the aftermath of the 2008 GFC in Asian countries? Utilising a framework based on a simple strata-bootstrap algorithm using daily data – where available – we investigate the trend in suicide rates over time in three different populations (Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea), and examine whether there were any changes in the pattern of suicide rates in each country subsequent to both the 1997 Asian and 2008. We find that each country responded differently to each of the crises and the suicide rates for certain age-gender specific groups in each country were more affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Social Sciences in China is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Over the last two decades, Taiwan has weathered two global financial crises: the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and the sub-prime loan crisis of 2008–2009. Each time the island's economy emerged from the crisis relatively unscathed. Many of the elements that constitute Taiwan's economic resilience have been fostered through entrenched institutional arrangements and established policy orientations over a long period. Taiwan managed to retain the bulk of these long-running sources of economic resilience despite the tremendous external pressures exerted by neo-liberal policy advocates to dismantle these ‘out-dated’ policy thinking and practices in the name of reform during the decade-long interval between the two crises. Taiwan was able to cope with the 2008–2009 global financial crisis thanks also to a more enabling regional environment created through stronger cooperation among Asian economies and under a new awakening among the East Asian policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

With period fertility having risen in many low-fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family size has remained considerably higher than the period rates of 1.5 in many 'low-fertility' countries, averaging about 1.8 children. Our forecasts suggest that the long-term decline in cohort fertility is flattening or reversing in many world regions previously characterized by low fertility. We document the marked increase of cohort fertility in the English-speaking world and in Scandinavia; signs of an upward reversal in many low-fertility countries, including Japan and Germany; and continued declines in countries such as Taiwan and Portugal. We include in our forecasts estimates of statistical uncertainty and the possible effects of the recent economic recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work develops a theory of countercyclical bank mergers and finds supported empirical evidence in Taiwan. Procyclical (countercyclical) mergers tend to involve higher (lower) measures of merger activities during economic booms than downturns. Several previous studies suggest that bank mergers are procyclical in developed countries, possibly driven by the higher capital liquidity that accompanies an economic expansion. Alternatively, this work emphasizes the role of economic situation and the government in bank mergers. Our results suggest that the depressed industrial situation, which leads to severe competitive market and impoverished revenue basis, drives banks to increase their market share for reducing competition through merger with the merger cost as low as possible by utilizing government's offering and the beneficial condition of stock market. Merger activities may be explained by the motivation of generating higher profit and able to survive, whereas the banks with insufficient competitiveness are more likely to suffer serious loss and thus forced to be merged. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]