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Accurate cost estimates are vital to sustaining Navy Expeditionary Combat Command (NECC) operational forces. Currently, NECC needs a method to assess the accuracy of future cost estimates that will not disrupt its existing cost estimation process during the POM cycle. Accuracy is the sole metric used in this study to analyze and assess the effectiveness of a cost estimate. This research uses statistical techniques to assess the cost estimate’s accuracy, including single variable linear regression, Monte Carlo simulation, and a proportional scale-down model. The sample of sustainment cost data spans from FY 2016 to 2021. The point estimates from the regression model revealed that the total aggregate cost decreases by just under $16.6 million in constant year 2018 dollars (CY18$) each fiscal year. I applied the point estimate and standard error to the Monte Carlo simulation to produce a normal probability distribution with a range of possible outcomes (i.e., probability of occurrence linked to each value within that range). For the FY2025 scenario simulation, the mean value representing the most likely estimate is $303,649,744 (CY18$), and the standard deviation is $7,767,962 (CY18$). The proportional scale factor model breaks down the aggregate estimate to a lower level of programmatic detail for additional analysis. Applying statistical techniques to the existing process will help ensure that operational forces receive sufficient resources to accomplish the mission. NPS Naval Research Program Major, United States Marine Corps Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Military family housing programs are in crisis, the product of a policy-strategy mismatch resulting from competing interests among the United States Congress, Department of Defense, private real-estate developers, and the military members and families who rely on military housing. Through a policy-centered literature review, survey instrument, and analysis, this thesis investigates the mismatch and its impacts on military member and family health and readiness. Responses to this study’s survey and research sample suggest that few differences exist between respondents of military family housing and residents of local civilian community housing, with the most significant supported finding being that military housing respondents’ air-filtration maintenance occurs less often than that of local community housing. The overall findings suggest that the survey instrument, with minor improvements, could be used to acquire accurate and actionable data related to occupant health, well-being, and readiness, with the intrinsic benefit of serving as a rubric to gauge achievement of current housing and readiness policies. Succinctly put, the study’s survey instrument could easily be used by housing tenants, providers, and support staff as a near-definitive physical inspection diagnostic tool to identify physically observable indicators and building assemblage characteristics commonly observed, known, and associated with unsafe and unhealthy housing conditions. http://archive.org/details/aplanforactionho1094567106 Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

MBA Professional Project This thesis analyzes the current state of the Close-In Weapon System (CIWS) and decides what improvements can be used to improve system operational readiness and life-cycle support. Currently, CIWS is supported by a Readiness Based Sparing Model that has drawn criticism from senior naval leaders for the operational availability (Ao) that it provides. We analyze data to derive a list of five “key offenders” parts that heavily impact operational availability of CIWS. We also analyze how improving the sparing of these “key offenders” can potentially improve operational availability. Additionally, we analyze the timing of actual failures in the fleet. This paper addresses CIWS operational readiness and life-cycle support while exploring whether other processes can be used to improve the operational readiness of U.S. Guided Missile Destroyers’ CIWS systems. The major findings of our research are as follows: first, that timing “luck” of failures accounted for a 7% difference between the worst-case scenario downtime and actual downtime. Second, that actual system availability was 86% of calendar days over fiscal years 2017 and 2018, exceeding NSWC’s Ao predictions. Third, that the top five “key offenders,” which these parts can potentially affect, account for a 3% improvement to operational downtime. Finally, that 10 of the 67 ships showed no downtime associated with CIWS, which could be a result of operational schedules. Acquisition Research Program http://archive.org/details/ananalysisofcrit1094564188 Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Lieutenant, United States Navy

MBA Professional Project Reserve P-3 squadrons are directed to maintain a complement of six aircraft in their inventory. This number was determined through the application of a concept known as the crew seat ratio (CSR). While implementation of the CSR provides an accurate means of determining what is required operationally, further application results in excessive aircraft assignments, stressing maintenance capacities. The CSR assumes all aircrew will attain scheduled proficiency and readiness requirements. However, only deploying aircrew are expected to pursue readiness requirements throughout the FRTP. Therefore, applying a consistent ratio to all aircrew results in assigning more aircraft than what is required. The assignment of six aircraft can be burdensome, as reserve maintenance departments are at a disadvantage and not adequately staffed to support that many aircraft. This thesis performs multiple analyses in optimization modeling to determine the minimum ("best-fit") number of aircraft assignments for day-to-day operations while maintaining the requisite support for the active duty component. It accounts for constraints resulting from individual training and proficiency requirements, aircrew readiness and qualification requirements, and maintenance practices and capabilities. This thesis examines the development and application of The Orion Model (TOM), and demonstrates feasibility with an optimal solution of four aircraft assigned per squadron. http://archive.org/details/allocatingaircra1094561220 Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy