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This paper presents a stochastic analysis of the size effect on the nominal strength of quasibrittle structures with a large preexisting notch. This type of scaling behavior has been extensively studied within a deterministic framework. Little attention is paid to stochastic analysis, which is essential for reliability-based analysis and design of engineering structures. Stochastic finite element simulations are performed to study the failure of geometrically similar beams of different sizes. The numerical analysis uses a continuum damage model, in which the tensile strength and fracture energy are modeled by homogeneous random fields. Different correlation lengths are considered as a parametric study. The analysis yields the size effects on the mean and coefficient of variation (CoV) of the nominal structural strength. It is shown that the size effect on the mean strength agrees well with the Bazant size effect model. The simulation predicts a strong size effect on the CoV of the nominal strength. Small-, intermediate-, and large-size asymptotes are derived analytically for the scaling behavior of the strength CoV. Based on these asymptotes, an approximate scaling equation is proposed for the CoV of nominal strength. The effect of the correlation length on the simulated failure behavior is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Mesoscale discrete model of concrete enhanced by spatially random material parameters. • Notched and unnotched three point bending and uniaxial tension are analyzed. • Fracture process zone statistically evaluated for various random field parameters. • Nontrivial dependence of peak loads on correlation length and variance is reported. • Local averaging and weakest-link are identified as the underlying mechanisms. Numerical simulations of concrete fracture performed with a probabilistic mesoscale discrete model are presented. The model represents a substantial part of material randomness by assigning random locations to the largest aggregates. The remaining part of randomness is introduced by causing material parameters to fluctuate randomly via a homogeneous random field. An extensive numerical study performed with the model considers prisms loaded in uniaxial tension with both fixed and rotating platens, and also beams with and without a notch loaded in three point bending. The results show the nontrivial effect of (i) autocorrelation length and (ii) variance of the random field on the fracture behavior of the model. Statistics of the peak load are presented as well as the size and shape of the fracture process zone at the moment when the maximum load is attained. Local averaging within the fracture process zone and weakest-link are identified as underlying mechanisms explaining the reported results. The companion paper, Part II (Vořechovský and Eliáš, 2020), introduces an analytical model capable of predicting the distribution of the peak load obtained with the probabilistic discrete model via the simple estimation of extremes of a random field obtained as moving average of local strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Strength prediction of quasibrittle material that removes problems of Weibull theory. • Statistics of peak load are obtained analytically based on extremes of local averages. • Local averaging of Gaussian random field provides effective strength of material. • The weakest-link mechanics is incorporated via extremes of effective strength field. • Four model parameters are used to represent a wide range of random field parameters. The paper delivers an analytical model for prediction of the peak force in concrete specimens loaded in bending (both notched and unnotched). The model is capable of predicting peak force statistics by computing the extreme values of sliding averages of random strength fields. The local strength of the specimen is modeled by a stationary isotropic random field with Gaussian distribution and a given autocorrelation function. The averaging operation represents the progressive loss in material integrity and the associated stress redistribution that takes place prior to reaching the peak load. Once the (linear) averaging process is performed analytically, the resulting random field of averaged strength is assumed to represent a series of representative volume elements (RVEs) and the global strength is found by solving for the minimum of such an effective strength field. All these operations can be written analytically and there are only four model parameters: the three dimensions of the averaging volume (RVE) and the length of the final weakest-link chain. The model is verified using detailed numerical computations of notched and unnotched concrete beams simulated by mesoscale discrete simulations of concrete fracture performed with probabilistic distributions of model parameters. These are presented in the companion paper Part I (Eliáš and Vořechovský, 2020). The numerical model used for verification represents material randomness both by assigning random locations to the largest aggregates and by simulating random fluctuations of material parameters via a homogeneous random field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]