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In this study, the summer rainfall patterns in the East China monsoon region during 1951-2015 were objectively classified into four typical categories: the northern China rainfall pattern (NCP), the intermediate rainfall pattern (IRP), the Yangtze River rainfall pattern (YRP), and the South China rainfall pattern (SCP). The periods of the four patterns show significant decadal characteristics. The NCP occurred mainly between the late 1950s and the early 1980s, and the IRP in the late 1950s to the early 1970s and the 2000s. The YRP occurred mainly between the 1980s and the 1990s, and the SCP between the mid-1990s and the early 21st century. The relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASM I ) and the four rainfall patterns was comparatively analyzed. The results confirmed that the four rainfall patterns have obvious differences in the EASM. In the NCP, IRP, or SCP years, the EASM I primarily showed a positive phase and a strong summer monsoon; in the YRP years, the EASM I primarily showed a negative phase and a weak summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By using the one-month‑lead predictions from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), this study evaluates the predictability of the unprecedented heatwaves hitting the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and Tibetan Plateau (TP) in 2022 late summer. CFSv2 successfully reproduces the central China heatwaves, but shows distinct performances between the YRV and TP. Specifically, CFSv2 exhibits stronger ability to capture TP heatwaves that is close to the highest historical prediction record, whereas the predicted extremity of the YRV heatwaves is underestimated compared to the observations. The accurate simulation of the intense upper-level circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern, particularly for the East Asia CGT center (CGT EA), is essential for the success predictions of high temperature anomalies, due to the strong and accurate linkage between CGT EA and YRV/TP heatwaves in CFSv2. The intense CGT pattern is associated with a stronger model response to developing La Niña in CFSv2, quite different from the observed leading contribution from the unprecedented Pakistan rainfall. The impacts of developing La Niña and Pakistan rainfall on the intense CGT pattern are significantly overestimated and underestimated by CFSv2, respectively. Additionally, the La Niña-forced enhancement of lower-level western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) plays another important role in YRV heatwaves, but the reproduction of WPSH intensity is unable to reflect YRV heatwaves in CFSv2 due to the southeastward shift of the predicted WPSH location, which should be responsible for the underestimated YRV heatwaves. The model improvements in aspect of the Pakistan rainfall, El Niño-Southern Oscillation–CGT linkage and lower-level WPSH location should help effectively predict the central China heatwaves in the future. • CFSv2 successfully predicts the central China heatwaves in 2022 late summer. • The accurately predicted CGT is essential for the reproduction of heatwaves. • La Niña leads to the intense CGT in CFSv2 rather than Pakistan rainfall in observation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of the amount of light rain and the number of days with light rain in the ESWC and explored the possible causes of the significant decrease in the number of days with light rain. The results show that: (1) Both the amount of light rain and the number of days with light rain over the ESWC in summer showed a decreasing trend, with linear trends of −1.5 mm/decade and −0.88 day/decade, respectively. The decrease in the number of days with light rain was more distinct than the decrease in the amount of light rain. (2) The decrease in the number of days with light rain was closely related to the decrease in the relative humidity caused by an increase in temperature and specific humidity. The trend in relative humidity resulting from an increase in temperature alone was −1.1%/decade, whereas the trend in relative humidity caused by an increase in specific humidity alone was 0.29%/decade. The trend in relative humidity was −0.76%/decade. The decrease in relative humidity was mainly a result of an increase in temperature. (3) The increase in temperature resulted in a decrease in the relative humidity and an increase in the surface evaporation. The increase in evaporation increased the specific humidity, which, in turn, increased the relative humidity. This compensated for the decrease in the relative humidity caused by the increase in the temperature and further decelerated the decrease in the number of days with light rain. • The number of summer days with light rain in the ESWC decreased significantly during 1961–2018. • The decrease in the number of days with light rain was closely related to the decrease in the relative humidity. • The trend of relative humidity made by an increase in temperature alone was −1.1%/decade. • The increase in evaporation compensated for the decrease in relative humidity caused by the increase in temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]