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The estimate of precipitation from satellite measurements is an indirect estimate if compared to rain gauges or disdrometer measurements, but it has the advantage of complete coverage over oceans, mountainous regions, and sparsely populated areas where other sources of precipitation data (e.g., weather radar) are unavailable or unreliable. Among the satellite-based precipitation estimates, geostationary (GEO) data ensure the highest spatial and temporal resolution. At the same time, the IR/VIS channels deployed on GEO satellites have lower capabilities than microwave (MW) channels in characterizing the cloud structure. Machine learning (ML) techniques can be considered a powerful tool to overcome the limitations related to the physical relationship between IR/VIS channels and precipitation estimation. This study describes the development of a convolutional neural network (U-Net) to retrieve the precipitation rate using IR measurements only from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite. Its performances are evaluated through a comparison with H SAF and NASA operational products (e.g., H60B or H03B and IMERG-E, respectively), of which the algorithms are based on different principles. The results highlight a lower error in precipitation rate estimates for the U-Net with respect to the other products but also some issues in correctly estimating the more intense precipitation (>5 mmh−1). On the other hand, the precipitation detection capabilities of the U-Net outperform the H SAF products for lower precipitation rate, while IMERG-E shows the best performance regardless of the precipitation regime. Furthermore, the U-Net is able to account for and correct the parallax displacement that affects the measurement as the satellite viewing angle increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive analysis of the July 2021 event that occurred on Lake Como (Italy), during which heavy hailstorms and floods affected the surroundings of Lake, is presented. The study provides a detailed analysis of the event using different observation sources currently available. The employed techniques include both conventional (rain gauges, radar, atmospheric sounding) and non-conventional (satellite-based Earth observation products, GNSS, and lightning detection network) observations for hydro-meteorological analysis. The study is split in three main topics: event description by satellite-based observations; long-term analysis by the ERA5 model and ASCAT soil water index; and short-term analysis by lightning data, GNSS delays and radar-VIL. The added value of the work is the near-real-time analysis of some of the datasets used, which opens up the potential for use in alerting systems, showing considerable application possibilities in NWP modeling, where it can also be useful for the implementation of early warning systems. The results highlight the validity of the different techniques and the consistency among the observations. This result, therefore, leads to the conclusion that a joint use of the innovative techniques with the operational ones can bring reliability in the description of events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lightning data assimilation (LDA) is a powerful tool to improve the weather forecast of convective events and has been widely applied with this purpose in the past two decades. Most of these applications refer to events hitting coastal and land areas, where people live. However, a weather forecast over the sea has many important practical applications, and this paper focuses on the impact of LDA on the precipitation forecast over the central Mediterranean Sea around Italy. The 3 h rapid update cycle (RUC) configuration of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model) has been used to simulate the whole month of November 2019. Two sets of forecasts have been considered: CTRL, without lightning data assimilation, and LIGHT, which assimilates data from the LIghtning detection NETwork (LINET). The 3 h precipitation forecast has been compared with observations of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) (IMERG) dataset and with rain gauge observations recorded in six small Italian islands. The comparison of CTRL and LIGHT precipitation forecasts with the IMERG dataset shows a positive impact of LDA. The correlation between predicted and observed precipitation improves over wide areas of the Ionian and Adriatic Seas when LDA is applied. Specifically, the correlation coefficient for the whole domain increases from 0.59 to 0.67, and the anomaly correlation (AC) improves by 5% over land and by 8% over the sea when lightning is assimilated. The impact of LDA on the 3 h precipitation forecast over six small islands is also positive. LDA improves the forecast by both decreasing the false alarms and increasing the hits of the precipitation forecast, although with variability among the islands. The case study of 12 November 2019 (time interval 00–03 UTC) has been used to show how important the impact of LDA can be in practice. In particular, the shifting of the main precipitation pattern from land to the sea caused by LDA gives a much better representation of the precipitation field observed by the IMERG precipitation product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, precipitation estimates derived from the Italian ground radar network (IT GR) are used in conjunction with Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) measurements to develop an operational oriented algorithm (RAdar INfrared Blending algorithm for Operational Weather monitoring (RAINBOW)) able to provide precipitation pattern and intensity. The algorithm evaluates surface precipitation over five geographical boxes (in which the study area is divided). It is composed of two main modules that exploit a second-degree polynomial relationship between the SEVIRI brightness temperature at 10.8 µm TB10.8 and the precipitation rate estimates from IT GR. These relationships are applied to each acquisition of SEVIRI in order to provide a surface precipitation map. The results, based on a number of case studies, show good performance of RAINBOW when it is compared with ground reference (precipitation rate map from interpolated rain gauge measurements), with high Probability of Detection (POD) and low False Alarm Ratio (FAR) values, especially for light to moderate precipitation range. At the same time, the mean error (ME) values are about 0 mmh−1, while root mean square error (RMSE) is about 2 mmh−1, highlighting a limited variability of the RAINBOW estimations. The precipitation retrievals from RAINBOW have been also compared with the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H SAF) official microwave (MW)/infrared (IR) combined product (P-IN-SEVIRI). RAINBOW shows better performances than P-IN-SEVIRI, in terms of both detection and estimates of precipitation fields when they are compared to the ground reference. RAINBOW has been designed as an operational product, to provide complementary information to that of the national radar network where the IT GR coverage is absent, or the quality (expressed in terms of Quality Index (QI)) of the RAINBOW estimates is low. The aim of RAINBOW is to complement the radar and rain gauge network supporting the operational precipitation monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates comprise various measurement scales: from rain gauges and ground-based radars to the satellite rainfall retrievals. The quality of satellite rainfall products has improved significantly in recent decades; however, such algorithms require validation studies using observational rainfall data. For this reason, this study aims to apply the H-SAF consolidated radar data processing to the X-band radar used in the CHUVA campaigns and apply the well established H-SAF validation procedure to these data and verify the quality of EUMETSAT H-SAF operational passive microwave precipitation products in two regions of Brazil (Vale do Paraíba and Manaus). These products are based on two rainfall retrieval algorithms: the physically based Bayesian Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD algorithm) for SSMI/S sensors and the Passive microwave Neural network Precipitation Retrieval algorithm (PNPR) for cross-track scanning radiometers (AMSU-A/AMSU-B/MHS sensors) and for the ATMS sensor. These algorithms, optimized for Europe, Africa and the Southern Atlantic region, provide estimates for the MSG full disk area. Firstly, the radar data was treated with an overall quality index which includes corrections for different error sources like ground clutter, range distance, rain-induced attenuation, among others. Different polarimetric and non-polarimetric QPE algorithms have been tested and the Vulpiani algorithm (hereafter, R q 2 V u 15 ) presents the best precipitation retrievals when compared with independent rain gauges. Regarding the results from satellite-based algorithms, generally, all rainfall retrievals tend to detect a larger precipitation area than the ground-based radar and overestimate intense rain rates for the Manaus region. Such behavior is related to the fact that the environmental and meteorological conditions of the Amazon region are not well represented in the algorithms. Differently, for the Vale do Paraíba region, the precipitation patterns were well detected and the estimates are in accordance with the reference as indicated by the low mean bias values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a new rainfall rate retrieval algorithm, developed within the EUMETSAT H SAF program, based on the Passive microwave Neural network Precipitation Retrieval approach (PNPR v3), designed to work with the conically scanning Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). A new rain/no-rain classification scheme, also based on the NN approach, which provides different rainfall masks for different minimum thresholds and degree of reliability, is also described. The algorithm is trained on an extremely large observational database, built from GPM global observations between 2014 and 2016, where the NASA 2B-CMB (V04) rainfall rate product is used as reference. In order to assess the performance of PNPR v3 over the globe, an independent part of the observational database is used in a verification study. The good results found over all surface types (CC > 0.90, ME < −0.22 mm h−1, RMSE < 2.75 mm h−1 and FSE% < 100% for rainfall rates lower than 1 mm h−1 and around 30–50% for moderate to high rainfall rates), demonstrate the good outcome of the input selection procedure, as well as of the training and design phase of the neural network. For further verification, two case studies over Italy are also analysed and a good consistency of PNPR v3 retrievals with simultaneous ground radar observations and with the GMI GPROF V05 estimates is found. PNPR v3 is a global rainfall retrieval algorithm, able to optimally exploit the GMI multi-channel response to different surface types and precipitation structures, that provide global rainfall retrieval in a computationally very efficient way, making the product suitable for near-real time operational applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses the impact of total lightning data assimilation on cloud-resolving short-term (3 and 6 h) precipitation forecasts of three heavy rainfall events that occurred recently in Italy by providing an evaluation of forecast skill using statistical scores for 3-hourly thresholds against observational data from a dense rain gauge network. The experiments are performed with two initial and boundary conditions datasets as a sensitivity test. The three rainfall events have been chosen to better represent the convective regime spectrum: from a short-lived and localised thunderstorm to a long-lived and widespread event, along with a case that had elements of both. This analysis illustrates the ability of the lightning data assimilation (LDA) to notably improve the short-term rainfall forecasts with respect to control simulations without LDA. The assimilation of lightning enhances the representation of convection in the model and translates into a better spatiotemporal positioning of the storm systems. The results of the statistical scores reveal that simulations with LDA always improve the probability of detection, particularly for rainfall thresholds exceeding 40 mm/3 h. The false alarm ratio also improves but appears to be more sensitive to the model initial and boundary conditions. Overall, these results show a systematic advantage of the LDA with a 3-h forecast range over 6-h. • A lightning data assimilation scheme for WRF is tested for three severe storm cases. • 3 and 6 h short-term cloud-resolving precipitation forecasts are analyzed against rain gauges. • Assimilating lightning significantly improves rainfall forecasts compared to controls. • Statistical analysis shows data assimilation improves probability of detection especially for high thresholds. • Employing this scheme at 3-h forecast ranges systematically outperform those at 6-h. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State-of-the-art satellite rainfall products are often the only way for measuring precipitation in remote areas of the world. These products are mainly based on the exploitation of microwave (MW) radiometers on board LEO satellites (top-down approach). However, it is well known that they may fail in properly reproducing the amount of precipitation reaching the ground, which is of paramount importance for hydrological applications (natural hazards forecast and mitigation, water management). Currently, one of the major issues impacting the quality of the information retrieved from space is related to the estimation of light precipitation that causes a general underestimation of the total amount of rainfall. This issue is particularly important over land due to the uncertainty and spatial variability of surface emissivity. With the purpose of improving the accuracy of satellite rainfall products, some approaches using satellite soil moisture (SM) data were recently developed (bottom-up approach). In 2013 a new method for estimating rainfall using satellite SM observations, called SM2RAIN, has been proposed. The method is based on the inversion of the soil water balance equation, i.e. it estimates rainfall by using the variation in time of the amount of water stored into to the soil, thus considering it "as a natural rain gauge". SM2RAIN has been applied both at local and global scale with ground- and satellite-based SM data as input with satisfactory results in terms of rainfall estimation. Moreover, previous studies found that the correction of rainfall estimates through SM2RAIN provides improvement in flood modeling. However SM-only based rainfall estimates suffer a number of issues such as the inability to estimate precipitation when the soil is fully saturated, when it is vegetated or snow-covered, besides not providing any precipitation data over the sea. Thus a fully global satellite rainfall product, able to integrate rainfall estimates derived from top-down and bottom-up approaches, has been demonstrated to be highly beneficial for increasing the accuracy of satellite precipitation estimates.Through the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (HSAF), the SM2RAIN approach together with the MW-based rainfall product H23 are the scientific background for the development of the "H64 precipitation-soil moisture integrated product". H23 provides daily precipitation estimates by combining MW precipitation rate estimates derived from conical (H01) and cross-track (H02) scanning radiometers. SM estimates obtained through H16 and H101 H SAF products are used to estimate rainfall through SM2RAIN, and then merged with H23 precipitation estimates through a simple nudging scheme. H64 has been designed to combine optimally the two different approaches in order to provide a more reliable rainfall product, that can be used in an operational framework. Preliminary results show that H64 can efficiently reproduce the observed rainfall during a 4-year period, providing a useful and reliable source of information over scarcely instrumented areas. This first assessment provides very useful insights about the development of a near-real time rainfall product based on SM2RAIN and MW-based top-down precipitation products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]