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Background: Investigations on radiation-induced lung injury (RILI) have predominantly focused on local effects, primarily those associated with radiation damage to lung parenchyma. However, recent studies from our group and others have revealed that radiation-induced damage to branching serial structures such as airways and vessels may also have a substantial impact on post-radiotherapy (RT) lung function. Furthermore, recent results from multiple functional lung avoidance RT trials, although promising, have demonstrated only modest toxicity reduction, likely because they were primarily focused on dose avoidance to lung parenchyma. These observations emphasize the critical need for predictive dose-response models that effectively incorporate both local and distant RILI effects., Purpose: We develop and validate a predictive model for ventilation loss after lung RT. This model, referred to as P+A, integrates local (parenchyma [P]) and distant (central and peripheral airways [A]) radiation-induced damage, modeling partial (narrowing) and complete (collapse) obstruction of airways., Methods: In an IRB-approved prospective study, pre-RT breath-hold CTs (BHCTs) and pre- and one-year post-RT 4DCTs were acquired from lung cancer patients treated with definitive RT. Up to 13 generations of airways were automatically segmented on the BHCTs using a research virtual bronchoscopy software. Ventilation maps derived from the 4DCT scans were utilized to quantify pre- and post-RT ventilation, serving, respectively, as input data and reference standard (RS) in model validation. To predict ventilation loss solely due to parenchymal damage (referred to as P model), we used a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model. Our model used this NTCP-based estimate and predicted additional loss due radiation-induced partial or complete occlusion of individual airways, applying fluid dynamics principles and a refined version of our previously developed airway radiosensitivity model. Predictions of post-RT ventilation were estimated in the sublobar volumes (SLVs) connected to the terminal airways. To validate the model, we conducted a k-fold cross-validation. Model parameters were optimized as the values that provided the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) between predicted post-RT ventilation and the RS for all SLVs in the training data. The performance of the P+A and the P models was evaluated by comparing their respective post-RT ventilation values with the RS predictions. Additional evaluation using various receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics was also performed., Results: We extracted a dataset of 560 SLVs from four enrolled patients. Our results demonstrated that the P+A model consistently outperformed the P model, exhibiting RMSEs that were nearly half as low across all patients (13 ± 3 percentile for the P+A model vs. 24 ± 3 percentile for the P model on average). Notably, the P+A model aligned closely with the RS in ventilation loss distributions per lobe, particularly in regions exposed to doses ≥13.5 Gy. The ROC analysis further supported the superior performance of the P+A model compared to the P model in sensitivity (0.98 vs. 0.07), accuracy (0.87 vs. 0.25), and balanced predictions., Conclusions: These early findings indicate that airway damage is a crucial factor in RILI that should be included in dose-response modeling to enhance predictions of post-RT lung function., (© 2024 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.)

Purpose: National guidelines on limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) treatment give preference to a hyperfractionated regimen of 45 Gy in 30 fractions delivered twice daily; however, use of this regimen is uncommon compared with once-daily regimens. The purpose of this study was to characterize the LS-SCLC fractionation regimens used throughout a statewide collaborative, analyze patient and treatment factors associated with these regimens, and describe real-world acute toxicity profiles of once- and twice-daily radiation therapy (RT) regimens., Methods and Materials: Demographic, clinical, and treatment data along with physician-assessed toxicity and patient-reported outcomes were prospectively collected by 29 institutions within the Michigan Radiation Oncology Quality Consortium between 2012 and 2021 for patients with LS-SCLC. We modeled the influence of RT fractionation and other patient-level variables clustered by treatment site on the odds of a treatment break specifically due to toxicity with multilevel logistic regression. National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 4.0, incident grade 2 or worse toxicity was longitudinally compared between regimens., Results: There were 78 patients (15.6% overall) treated with twice-daily RT and 421 patients treated with once-daily RT. Patients receiving twice-daily RT were more likely to be married or living with someone (65% vs 51%; P = .019) and to have no major comorbidities (24% vs 10%; P = .017). Once-daily RT fractionation toxicity peaked during RT, and twice-daily toxicity peaked within 1 month after RT. After stratifying by treatment site and adjusting for patient-level variables, once-daily treated patients had 4.11 (95% confidence interval, 1.31-12.87) higher odds of treatment break specifically due to toxicity than twice-daily treated patients., Conclusions: Hyperfractionation for LS-SCLC remains infrequently prescribed despite the lack of evidence demonstrating superior efficacy or lower toxicity of once-daily RT. With peak acute toxicity after RT and lower likelihood of a treatment break with twice-daily fractionation in real-word practice, providers may start using hyperfractionated RT more frequently., (Copyright © 2023 American Society for Radiation Oncology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Functional lung avoidance (FLA) radiation therapy (RT) aims to minimize post-RT pulmonary toxicity by preferentially avoiding dose to high-functioning lung (HFL) regions. A common limitation is that FLA approaches do not consider the conducting architecture for gas exchange. We previously proposed the functionally weighted airway sparing (FWAS) method to spare airways connected to HFL regions, showing that it is possible to substantially reduce risk of radiation-induced airway injury. Here, we compare the performance of FLA and FWAS and propose a novel method combining both approaches., Methods: We used breath-hold computed tomography (BHCT) and simulation 4-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) from 12 lung stereotactic ablative radiation therapy patients. Four planning strategies were examined: (1) Conventional: no sparing other than clinical dose-volume constraints; (2) FLA: using a 4DCT-based ventilation map to delineate the HFL, plans were optimized to reduce mean dose and V 13.50 in HFL; (3) FWAS: we autosegemented 11 to 13 generations of individual airways from each patient's BHCT and assigned priorities based on the relative contribution of each airway to total ventilation. We used these priorities in the optimization along with airway dose constraints, estimated as a function of airway diameter and 5% probability of collapse; and (4) FLA + FWAS: we combined information from the 2 strategies. We prioritized clinical dose constraints for organs at risk and planning target volume in all plans. We performed the evaluation in terms of ventilation preservation accounting for radiation-induced damage to both lung parenchyma and airways., Results: We observed average ventilation preservation for FLA, FWAS, and FLA + FWAS as 3%, 8.5%, and 14.5% higher, respectively, than for Conventional plans for patients with ventilation preservation in Conventional plans <90%. Generalized estimated equations showed that all improvements were statistically significant (P ≤ .036). We observed no clinically relevant improvements in outcomes of the sparing techniques in patients with ventilation preservation in Conventional plans ≥90%., Conclusions: These initial results suggest that it is crucial to consider the parallel and the serial nature of the lung to improve post-radiation therapy lung function and, consequently, quality of life for patients., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: To study the dosimetric risk factors for radiation-induced proximal bronchial tree (PBT) toxicity in patients treated with radiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)., Methods and Materials: Patients with medically inoperable or unresectable NSCLC treated with conventionally fractionated 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT) in prospective clinical trials were eligible for this study. Proximal bronchial tree (PBT) and PBT wall were contoured consistently per RTOG 1106 OAR-Atlas. The dose-volume histograms (DVHs) of physical prescription dose (DVHp) and biological effective dose (α/β = 2.5; DVH2.5) were generated, respectively. The primary endpoint was PBT toxicities, defined by CTCAE 4.0 under the terminology of bronchial stricture/atelectasis., Results: Of 100 patients enrolled, with a median follow-up of 64 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 50-78), 73% received 70 Gy or greater and 17% developed PBT toxicity (grade 1, 8%; grade 2, 6%; grade 3, 0%; and grade 4, 3%). The median time interval between RT initiation and onset of PBT toxicity was 8.4 months (95% CI, 4.7-44.1). The combined DVHs showed that no patient with a PBT maximum physical dose <65 Gy developed any PBT toxicity. Cox proportional hazards analysis and receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that V75 of PBT was the most significant dosimetric parameter for both grade 1+ (P = .035) and grade 2+ (P = .037) PBT toxicities. The dosimetric thresholds for V75 of PBT were 6.8% and 11.9% for grade 1+ and grade 2+ PBT toxicity, respectively., Conclusions: V75 of PBT appeared be the most significant dosimetric parameter for PBT toxicity after conventionally fractionated thoracic 3DCRT. Constraining V75 of PBT can limit clinically significant PBT toxicity., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Purpose: The heart has been identified as a potential significant organ at risk in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with radiation. Practice patterns and radiation dose delivered to the heart in routine practice in academic and community settings are unknown., Methods and Materials: Between 2012 and 2017, 746 patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer were treated with radiation within the statewide Michigan Radiation Oncology Quality Consortium (MROQC). Cardiac radiation dose was characterized, including mean and those exceeding historical or recently proposed Radiation Therapy Oncology Group and NRG Oncology constraints. Sites were surveyed to determine dose constraints used in practice. Patient-, anatomic-, and treatment-related associations with cardiac dose were analyzed using multivariable regression analysis and inverse probability weighting., Results: Thirty-eight percent of patients had a left-sided primary, and 80% had N2 or N3 disease. Median prescription was 60 Gy (interquartile range, 60-66 Gy). Twenty-two percent of patients were prescribed 60 Gy in 2012, which increased to 62% by 2017 (P < .001). Median mean heart dose was 12 Gy (interquartile range, 5-19 Gy). The volume receiving 30 Gy (V30 Gy) exceeded 50% in 5% of patients, and V40 Gy was >35% in 3% of cases. No heart dose constraint was uniformly applied. Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) usage increased from 33% in 2012 to 86% in 2017 (P < .001) and was significantly associated with more complex cases (larger planning target volume, higher stage, and preexisting cardiac disease). In multivariable regression analysis, IMRT was associated with a lower percent of the heart receiving V30 Gy (absolute reduction = 3.0%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5%-5.4%) and V50 Gy (absolute reduction = 3.6%; 95% confidence interval, 2.4%-4.8%) but not mean dose. In inverse probability weighting analysis, IMRT was associated with 29% to 48% relative reduction in percent of the heart receiving V40-V60 Gy without increasing lung or esophageal dose or compromising planning target volume coverage., Conclusions: Within MROQC, historical cardiac constraints were met in most cases, yet 1 in 4 patients received a mean heart dose exceeding 20 Gy. Future work is required to standardize heart dose constraints and to develop treatment approaches that allow for constraints to be met without compromising other planning goals., (Copyright © 2019 American Society for Radiation Oncology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Radiation-induced cardiac toxicity (RICT) is an increasingly well-appreciated source of morbidity and mortality in patients receiving thoracic radiotherapy (RT). Currently available methods to predict RICT are suboptimal. We investigated circulating microRNAs (c-miRNAs) as potential biomarkers of RICT in patients undergoing definitive RT for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC)., Methods: Data from 63 patients treated on institutional trials were analyzed. Prognostic models of grade 3 or greater (G3 +) RICT based on pre-treatment c-miRNA levels ('c-miRNA'), mean heart dose (MHD) and pre-existing cardiac disease (PCD) ('clinical'), and a combination of these ('c-miRNA + clinical') were developed. Elastic net Cox regression and full cross validation were used for variable selection, model building, and model evaluation. Concordance statistic (c-index) and integrated Brier score (IBS) were used to evaluate model performance., Results: MHD, PCD, and serum levels of 14 c-miRNA species were identified as jointly prognostic for G3 + RICT. The 'c-miRNA and 'clinical' models yielded similar cross-validated c-indices (0.70 and 0.72, respectively) and IBSs (0.26 and 0.28, respectively). However, prognostication was not improved by combining c-miRNA and clinical factors (c-index 0.70, IBS 0.28). The 'c-miRNA' and 'clinical' models were able to significantly stratify patients into high- and low-risk groups of developing G3 + RICT. Chi-square testing demonstrated a marginally significantly higher prevalence of PCD in patients with high- compared to low-risk c-miRNA profile (p = 0.09), suggesting an association between some c-miRNAs and PCD., Conclusions: We identified a pre-treatment c-miRNA signature prognostic for G3 + RICT. With further development, pre- and mid-treatment c-miRNA profiling could contribute to patient-specific dose selection and treatment adaptation.

Background and Purpose: To study whether cytokine markers may improve predictive accuracy of radiation esophagitis (RE) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients., Materials and Methods: A total of 129 patients with stage I-III NSCLC treated with radiotherapy (RT) from prospective studies were included. Thirty inflammatory cytokines were measured in platelet-poor plasma samples. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the risk factors of RE. Stepwise Akaike information criterion (AIC) and likelihood ratio test were used to assess model predictions., Results: Forty-nine of 129 patients (38.0%) developed grade ≥2 RE. Univariate analysis showed that age, stage, concurrent chemotherapy, and eight dosimetric parameters were significantly associated with grade ≥2 RE (p < 0.05). IL-4, IL-5, IL-8, IL-13, IL-15, IL-1α, TGFα and eotaxin were also associated with grade ≥2 RE (p < 0.1). Age, esophagus generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD), and baseline IL-8 were independently associated grade ≥2 RE. The combination of these three factors had significantly higher predictive power than any single factor alone. Addition of IL-8 to toxicity model significantly improves RE predictive accuracy (p = 0.019)., Conclusions: Combining baseline level of IL-8, age and esophagus EUD may predict RE more accurately. Refinement of this model with larger sample sizes and validation from multicenter database are warranted., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Importance: Patients with preexisting liver dysfunction could benefit the most from personalized therapy for liver tumors to balance maximal tumor control and minimal risk of liver failure. We designed an individualized adaptive trial testing the hypothesis that adapting treatment based on change in liver function could optimize the therapeutic index for each patient., Objective: To characterize the safety and efficacy of individualized adaptive stereotactic body radiotherapy (SRBT) for liver tumors in patients who have preexisting liver dysfunction., Design, Setting, and Participants: From 2010 to 2014, 90 patients with intrahepatic cancer treated with prior liver-directed therapy were enrolled in this large phase 2, single-arm, clinical trial at an academic medical center. All patients had at least 1 year of potential follow-up., Interventions: Using indocyanine green retention at 15 minutes (ICGR15) as a direct biomarker of liver function and a Bayesian adaptive model, planned SBRT was individually modified midway through the course of therapy to maintain liver function after the complete course., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was local control; the secondary outcome was safety and overall survival., Results: Patients were 34 to 85 years of age, and 70% (63) were male. Ninety patients (69 [77%] with hepatocellular carcinoma, 4 [4%] with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, and 17 [19%] with metastatic) received treatment to 116 tumors. Sixty-two patients (69%) had cirrhosis, 21 (23%) were Child-Pugh (CP) grade B. The median tumor size was 3 cm; 16 patients (18%) had portal vein involvement. Sixty-two (69%) received all 5 fractions (47 full dose, 15 dose-reduced owing to rising ICGR15). Treatment was well tolerated, with a lower than expected complication rate without adaptation: 6 (7%) experienced a 2-point decline in CP 6 months post-SBRT. The 1- and 2-year local control rates were 99% (95% CI, 97%-100%) and 95% (95% CI, 91%-99%), respectively., Conclusions and Relevance: We demonstrated that the treatment strategy of individualized adaptive therapy based on a direct biomarker of liver function can be used to achieve both high rates of local control and a high degree of safety without sacrificing either. Individualized adaptive radiotherapy may represent a new treatment paradigm in which dose is based on individual, rather than population-based, tolerance to treatment., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01522937.

Purpose: Limited data exist regarding the range of heart doses received in routine practice with radiation therapy (RT) for breast cancer in the United States today and the potential effect of the continual assessment of the cardiac dose on practice patterns., Methods and Materials: From 2012 to 2015, 4688 patients with breast cancer treated with whole breast RT at 20 sites participating in a state-wide consortium were enrolled into a registry. The importance of limiting the cardiac dose has been emphasized in the consortium since 2012, and the mean heart dose (MHD) has been reported by each institution since 2014. The effects on the MHD were estimated for both conventional and accelerated fractionation using regression models, with technique (intensity modulated RT [IMRT] vs 3-dimensional conformal RT), deep inspiration breath hold use, patient position (supine vs prone), nodal RT (if delivered), and boost (yes vs no) as covariates., Results: For left-sided breast cancer treated with conventional fractionation, the median MHD in 2012 was 2.19 Gy versus 1.65 Gy in 2015 (P<.001). The factors that significantly increased the MHD for conventional fractionation were increased separation relative to 22 cm (1.5%/1 cm), supraclavicular or infraclavicular nodal RT (17.1%), internal mammary nodal RT (40.7%), use of a boost (20.9%), treatment year before 2015 (7.7%), and use of IMRT (20.8%). For left-sided BC treated with accelerated fractionation, the median MHD in 2012 was 1.70 Gy versus 1.22 Gy in 2015 (P<.001). The factors that significantly increased the MHD for accelerated fractionation were separation (1.7%/1 cm), use of a boost (20.0%), year before 2015 (8.5%), and use of IMRT (19.2%). The factors for both conventional fractionation and accelerated fractionation that significantly reduced the MHD were the use of deep inspiration breath hold and prone positioning., Conclusions: The MHD for left-sided breast cancer decreased during a recent 4-year period, coincident with an increased focus on cardiac sparing in the radiation oncology community in general and a state-wide consortium specifically. These data suggest a positive effect of systematically monitoring the heart dose delivered., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background and Purpose: Current methods to estimate risk of radiation-induced lung toxicity (RILT) rely on dosimetric parameters. We aimed to improve prognostication by incorporating clinical and cytokine data, and to investigate how these factors may interact with the effect of mean lung dose (MLD) on RILT., Materials and Methods: Data from 125 patients treated from 2004 to 2013 with definitive radiotherapy for stages I-III NSCLC on four prospective clinical trials were analyzed. Plasma levels of 30 cytokines were measured pretreatment, and at 2 and 4weeks midtreatment. Penalized logistic regression models based on combinations of MLD, clinical factors, and cytokine levels were developed. Cross-validated estimates of log-likelihood and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to assess accuracy., Results: In prognosticating grade 3 or greater RILT by MLD alone, cross-validated log-likelihood and AUC were -28.2 and 0.637, respectively. Incorporating clinical features and baseline cytokine levels increased log-likelihood to -27.6 and AUC to 0.669. Midtreatment cytokine data did not further increase log-likelihood or AUC. Of the 30 cytokines measured, higher levels of 13 decreased the effect of MLD on RILT, corresponding to a lower odds ratio for RILT per Gy MLD, while higher levels of 4 increased the association., Conclusions: Although the added prognostic benefit from cytokine data in our model was modest, understanding how clinical and biologic factors interact with the MLD-RILT relationship represents a novel framework for understanding and investigating the multiple factors contributing to radiation-induced toxicity., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Purpose Radiation therapy is a critical component in the care of patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), yet cardiac injury after treatment is a significant concern. Therefore, we wished to elucidate the incidence of cardiac events and their relationship to radiation dose to the heart. Patients and Materials Study eligibility criteria included patients with stage II to III NSCLC treated on one of four prospective radiation therapy trials at two centers from 2004 to 2013. All cardiac events were reviewed and graded per Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (v4.03). The primary end point was the development of a grade ≥ 3 cardiac event. Results In all, 125 patients met eligibility criteria; median follow-up was 51 months for surviving patients. Median prescription dose was 70 Gy, 84% received concurrent chemotherapy, and 27% had pre-existing cardiac disease. Nineteen patients had a grade ≥ 3 cardiac event at a median of 11 months (interquartile range, 6 to 24 months), and 24-month cumulative incidence was 11% (95% CI, 5% to 16%). On multivariable analysis (MVA), pre-existing cardiac disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.96; 95% CI, 1.07 to 8.21; P = .04) and mean heart dose (HR, 1.07/Gy; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.13/Gy; P = .01) were significantly associated with grade ≥ 3 cardiac events. Analyzed as time-dependent variables on MVA analysis, both disease progression (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.54 to 3.00) and grade ≥ 3 cardiac events (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.04 to 2.99) were associated with decreased overall survival. However, disease progression (n = 71) was more common than grade ≥ 3 cardiac events (n = 19). Conclusion The 24-month cumulative incidence of grade ≥ 3 cardiac events exceeded 10% among patients with locally advanced NSCLC treated with definitive radiation. Pre-existing cardiac disease and higher mean heart dose were significantly associated with higher cardiac event rates. Caution should be used with cardiac dose to minimize risk of radiation-associated injury. However, cardiac risks should be balanced against tumor control, given the unfavorable prognosis associated with disease progression.

Introduction: Most patients with lung cancer are elderly and poorly represented in randomized clinical trials. They are often undertreated because of concerns about their ability to tolerate aggressive treatment. We tested the hypothesis that elderly patients undergoing definitive lung radiation might tolerate treatment differently than younger patients., Methods: A total of 125 patients who underwent definitive lung radiotherapy were identified from a prospective institutional database (University of Michigan cohort). Logistic regression modeling was performed to assess the impact of age on esophagitis grade 2 or higher or grade 2 or higher and pneumonitis grade 3 or higher or grade 2 or higher, with adjustment for esophageal and lung dose, respectively, as well as for chemotherapy utilization, smoking status, and performance status. The analysis was validated in a large cohort of 691 patients from the Michigan Radiation Oncology Quality Consortium registry, an independent statewide prospective database., Results: In the University of Michigan cohort, multivariable regression models revealed a significant inverse correlation between age and rate of esophagitis for both toxicity levels, (adjusted OR = 0.93 for both models and 95% confidence intervals of 0.88-0.98 and 0.87-0.99), with areas under the curve of 0.747 and 0.721, respectively, demonstrating good fit. This same association was noted in the Michigan Radiation Oncology Quality Consortium cohort. There was no significant association between age and pneumonitis., Conclusions: There is a lower incidence of esophagitis with increasing age even after adjustment for use of chemotherapy. This is a novel finding in thoracic oncology. No age dependence was noted for pulmonary toxicity. The elderly are able to tolerate definitive thoracic radiation well and should be offered this option when clinically warranted., (Copyright © 2016 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Strategies to reduce the toxicities of head and neck radiation (ie, dysphagia [difficulty swallowing] and xerostomia [dry mouth]) are currently underway. However, the predicted benefit of dose and planning target volume (PTV) reduction strategies is unknown. The purpose of the present study was to compare the normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for swallowing and salivary structures in standard plans (70 Gy [P70]), dose-reduced plans (60 Gy [P60]), and plans eliminating the PTV margin., Methods and Materials: A total of 38 oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) plans were analyzed. Standard organ-sparing volumetric modulated arc therapy plans (P70) were created and then modified by eliminating the PTVs and treating the clinical tumor volumes (CTVs) only (C70) or maintaining the PTV but reducing the dose to 60 Gy (P60). NTCP dose models for the pharyngeal constrictors, glottis/supraglottic larynx, parotid glands (PGs), and submandibular glands (SMGs) were analyzed. The minimal clinically important benefit was defined as a mean change in NTCP of >5%. The P70 NTCP thresholds and overlap percentages of the organs at risk with the PTVs (56-59 Gy, vPTV56) were evaluated to identify the predictors for NTCP improvement., Results: With the P60 plans, only the ipsilateral PG (iPG) benefited (23.9% vs 16.2%; P<.01). With the C70 plans, only the iPG (23.9% vs 17.5%; P<.01) and contralateral SMG (cSMG) (NTCP 32.1% vs 22.9%; P<.01) benefited. An iPG NTCP threshold of 20% and 30% predicted NTCP benefits for the P60 and C70 plans, respectively (P<.001). A cSMG NTCP threshold of 30% predicted for an NTCP benefit with the C70 plans (P<.001). Furthermore, for the iPG, a vPTV56 >13% predicted benefit with P60 (P<.001) and C70 (P=.002). For the cSMG, a vPTV56 >22% predicted benefit with C70 (P<.01)., Conclusions: PTV elimination and dose-reduction lowered the NTCP of the iPG, and PTV elimination lowered the NTCP of the cSMG. NTCP thresholds and the percentage of overlap of the PTV with organs at risk can predict which patients will benefit and inform future clinical trial design., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)