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Seeds removed by animals have one of two mutually exclusive fates – they are either predated or dispersed and still alive. The quality of seed dispersal by animals and the number of predated seeds will therefore determine net interaction outcomes for plants. Yet, it is poorly understood what proportion of removed seeds animals can predate before benefits of dispersal no longer outweigh costs of seed loss.Here, we calculated the mutualism-antagonism continuum for seed removal of the fleshy-fruited tree Frangula alnus by the seed-predating bird Coccothraustes coccothraustes in Białowieża Forest. We integrated effects of the bird during seed dispersal (fruit handling, seed predation, and seed deposition) into microhabitat-structured tree population models.Results of our models showed that the probability of a seed of F. alnus reaching maturity after seed removal by C. coccothraustes decreased from 0.0028% to 0% as seed predation increased from 0% to 100%. Seed removal was beneficial when less than 63.7% of seeds were predated, and antagonistic when more than 72.0% of seeds were predated. Modifying key model parameters (here, the negative effect of fruit pulp on seedling recruitment and the frequency of forest gaps) decreased and increased rates of seed predation, at which costs of seed loss outweighed benefits of seed dispersal (from 37.9% to 80.7%).Our findings highlight that benefits of animal seed dispersal can largely outweigh costs of seed predation in a fleshy-fruited tree. Yet, the mutualism-antagonism continuum of seed removal depends on intrinsic factors (e.g. variation in interactions among individuals) and extrinsic factors (e.g. the environment) of seed dispersal and plant demography. Because C. coccothraustes was observed predating at least 80% of removed seeds, it appears to be an antagonist of animal-dispersed plants and exploiter of the seed dispersal mutualism.

Abstract Stage‐based demographic methods, such as matrix population models (MPMs), are powerful tools used to address a broad range of fundamental questions in ecology, evolutionary biology and conservation science. Accordingly, MPMs now exist for over 3000 species worldwide. These data are being digitised as an ongoing process and periodically released into two large open‐access online repositories: the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database and the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database. During the last decade, data archiving and curation of COMPADRE and COMADRE, and subsequent comparative research, have revealed pronounced variation in how MPMs are parameterized and reported. Here, we summarise current issues related to the parameterisation and reporting of MPMs that arise most frequently and outline how they affect MPM construction, analysis, and interpretation. To quantify variation in how MPMs are reported, we present results from a survey identifying key aspects of MPMs that are frequently unreported in manuscripts. We then screen COMPADRE and COMADRE to quantify how often key pieces of information are omitted from manuscripts using MPMs. Over 80% of surveyed researchers (n = 60) state a clear benefit to adopting more standardised methodologies for reporting MPMs. Furthermore, over 85% of the 300 MPMs assessed from COMPADRE and COMADRE omitted one or more elements that are key to their accurate interpretation. Based on these insights, we identify fundamental issues that can arise from MPM construction and communication and provide suggestions to improve clarity, reproducibility and future research utilising MPMs and their required metadata. To fortify reproducibility and empower researchers to take full advantage of their demographic data, we introduce a standardised protocol to present MPMs in publications. This standard is linked to www.compadre‐db.org, so that authors wishing to archive their MPMs can do so prior to submission of publications, following examples from other open‐access repositories such as DRYAD, Figshare and Zenodo. Combining and standardising MPMs parameterized from populations around the globe and across the tree of life opens up powerful research opportunities in evolutionary biology, ecology and conservation research. However, this potential can only be fully realised by adopting standardised methods to ensure reproducibility.

Organic carbon (OC) stored in Arctic permafrost represents one of Earth's largest and most vulnerable terrestrial carbon pools. Amplified climate warming across the Arctic results in widespread permafrost thaw. Permafrost deposits exposed at river cliffs and coasts are particularly susceptible to thawing processes. Accelerating erosion of terrestrial permafrost along shorelines leads to increased transfer of organic matter (OM) to nearshore waters. However, the amount of terrestrial permafrost carbon and nitrogen as well as the OM quality in these deposits is still poorly quantified. We define the OM quality as the intrinsic potential for further transformation, decomposition and mineralisation. Here, we characterise the sources and the quality of OM supplied to the Lena River at a rapidly eroding permafrost river shoreline cliff in the eastern part of the delta (Sobo-Sise Island). Our multi-proxy approach captures bulk elemental, molecular geochemical and carbon isotopic analyses of Late Pleistocene Yedoma permafrost and Holocene cover deposits, discontinuously spanning the last ∼52 kyr. We showed that the ancient permafrost exposed in the Sobo-Sise cliff has a high organic carbon content (mean of about 5 wt %). The oldest sediments stem from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 interstadial deposits (dated to 52 to 28 cal ka BP) and are overlaid by last glacial MIS 2 (dated to 28 to 15 cal ka BP) and Holocene MIS 1 (dated to 7–0 cal ka BP) deposits. The relatively high average chain length (ACL) index of n-alkanes along the cliff profile indicates a predominant contribution of vascular plants to the OM composition. The elevated ratio of iso- and anteiso-branched fatty acids (FAs) relative to mid- and long-chain (C ≥ 20) n-FAs in the interstadial MIS 3 and the interglacial MIS 1 deposits suggests stronger microbial activity and consequently higher input of bacterial biomass during these climatically warmer periods. The overall high carbon preference index (CPI) and higher plant fatty acid (HPFA) values as well as high C/N ratios point to a good quality of the preserved OM and thus to a high potential of the OM for decomposition upon thaw. A decrease in HPFA values downwards along the profile probably indicates stronger OM decomposition in the oldest (MIS 3) deposits of the cliff. The characterisation of OM from eroding permafrost leads to a better assessment of the greenhouse gas potential of the OC released into river and nearshore waters in the future.

Abstract The consequences of bird mortality caused by collisions with wind turbines are increasingly receiving attention. So‐called acceptable mortality limits of populations, that is, those that assume that 1%–5% of additional mortality and the potential biological removal (PBR), provide seemingly clear‐cut methods for establishing the reduction in population viability. We examine how the application of these commonly used mortality limits could affect populations of the Common Starling, Black‐tailed Godwit, Marsh Harrier, Eurasian Spoonbill, White Stork, Common Tern, and White‐tailed Eagle using stochastic density‐independent and density‐dependent Leslie matrix models. Results show that population viability can be very sensitive to proportionally small increases in mortality. Rather than having a negligible effect, we found that a 1% additional mortality in postfledging cohorts of our studied populations resulted in a 2%–24% decrease in the population level after 10 years. Allowing a 5% mortality increase to existing mortality resulted in a 9%–77% reduction in the populations after 10 years. When the PBR method is used in the density‐dependent simulations, the proportional change in the resulting growth rate and carrying capacity was species‐independent and largely determined by the recovery factor (Fr). When Fr = 1, a value typically used for robust populations, additional mortality resulted in a 50%–55% reduction in the equilibrium density and the resulting growth rate. When Fr = 0.1, used for threatened populations, the reduction in the equilibrium density and growth rate was about 5%. Synthesis and applications. Our results show that by allowing a mortality increase from wind farm collisions according to both criteria, the population impacts of these collisions can still be severe. We propose a simple new method as an alternative that was able to estimate mortality impacts of age‐structured stochastic density‐dependent matrix models.

Permafrost ground is one of the largest repositories of terrestrial organic carbon and might become or already is a carbon source in response to ongoing global warming. With this study of syngenetically frozen, ice-rich and organic carbon (OC)-bearing Yedoma and associated alas deposits in central Yakutia (Republic of Sakha), we aimed to assess the local sediment deposition regime and its impact on permafrost carbon storage. For this purpose, we investigated the Yukechi alas area (61.76495∘ N, 130.46664∘ E), which is a thermokarst landscape degrading into Yedoma in central Yakutia. We retrieved two sediment cores (Yedoma upland, 22.35 m deep, and alas basin, 19.80 m deep) in 2015 and analyzed the biogeochemistry, sedimentology, radiocarbon dates and stable isotope geochemistry. The laboratory analyses of both cores revealed very low total OC (TOC) contents ( wt %) for a 12 m section in each core, whereas the remaining sections ranged from 0.1 wt % to 2.4 wt % TOC. The core sections holding very little to no detectable OC consisted of coarser sandy material were estimated to be between 39 000 and 18 000 BP (years before present) in age. For this period, we assume the deposition of organic-poor material. Pore water stable isotope data from the Yedoma core indicated a continuously frozen state except for the surface sample, thereby ruling out Holocene reworking. In consequence, we see evidence that no strong organic matter (OM) decomposition took place in the sediments of the Yedoma core until today. The alas core from an adjacent thermokarst basin was strongly disturbed by lake development and permafrost thaw. Similar to the Yedoma core, some sections of the alas core were also OC poor ( wt %) in 17 out of 28 samples. The Yedoma deposition was likely influenced by fluvial regimes in nearby streams and the Lena River shifting with climate. With its coarse sediments with low OC content (OC mean of 5.27 kg m−3), the Yedoma deposits in the Yukechi area differ from other Yedoma sites in North Yakutia that were generally characterized by silty sediments with higher OC contents (OC mean of 19 kg m−3 for the non-ice wedge sediment). Therefore, we conclude that sedimentary composition and deposition regimes of Yedoma may differ considerably within the Yedoma domain. The resulting heterogeneity should be taken into account for future upscaling approaches on the Yedoma carbon stock. The alas core, strongly affected by extensive thawing processes during the Holocene, indicates a possible future pathway of ground subsidence and further OC decomposition for thawing central Yakutian Yedoma deposits.

As Arctic warming continues and permafrost thaws, more soil and sedimentary organic matter (OM) will be decomposed in northern high latitudes. Still, uncertainties remain in the quality of the OM and the size of the organic carbon (OC) pools stored in different deposit types of permafrost landscapes. This study presents OM data from deep permafrost and lake deposits on the Baldwin Peninsula which is located in the southern portion of the continuous permafrost zone in west Alaska. Sediment samples from yedoma and drained thermokarst lake basin (DTLB) deposits as well as thermokarst lake sediments were analyzed for cryostratigraphical and biogeochemical parameters and their lipid biomarker composition to identify the belowground OC pool size and OM quality of ice-rich permafrost on the Baldwin Peninsula. We provide the first detailed characterization of yedoma deposits on Baldwin Peninsula. We show that three-quarters of soil OC in the frozen deposits of the study region (total of 68 Mt) is stored in DTLB deposits (52 Mt) and one-quarter in the frozen yedoma deposits (16 Mt). The lake sediments contain a relatively small OC pool (4 Mt), but have the highest volumetric OC content (93 kg m−3) compared to the DTLB (35 kg m−3) and yedoma deposits (8 kg m−3), largely due to differences in the ground ice content. The biomarker analysis indicates that the OM in both yedoma and DTLB deposits is mainly of terrestrial origin. Nevertheless, the relatively high carbon preference index of plant leaf waxes in combination with a lack of a degradation trend with depth in the yedoma deposits indicates that OM stored in yedoma is less degraded than that stored in DTLB deposits. This suggests that OM in yedoma has a higher potential for decomposition upon thaw, despite the relatively small size of this pool. These findings show that the use of lipid biomarker analysis is valuable in the assessment of the potential future greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost, especially because this area, close to the discontinuous permafrost boundary, is projected to thaw substantially within the 21st century.