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Background: Most patients with COPD do not maintain exercise training after pulmonary rehabilitation (PR)., Research Question: Does a 12-month home-based, minimal-equipment strength training program after PR have an effect on dyspnea, exercise capacity, and patient-reported outcomes in patients with COPD?, Study Design and Methods: In a parallel-arm multicenter study across four Swiss PR clinics, patients with COPD were allocated randomly (1:1 ratio) into an intervention group (IG; home-based strength training program) or control group (CG; usual care). The primary outcome was change in Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire (CRQ) dyspnea scale score from baseline to 12 months. Secondary outcomes were change in exercise capacity (1-min sit-to-stand-test [1MSTST], 6-min walk test [6MWT]), health-related quality of life, exacerbations, and symptoms. We assessed the IG's experience by interviews at study end. Main analyses were based on the intention-to-treat approach, and adjusted linear regression models were used., Results: One hundred twenty-three patients with COPD (IG, n = 61; CG, n = 62) were randomized, 61 of whom were women and whose mean ± SD age was 66.8 ± 8.1 years and mean ± SD FEV 1 was 39.3 ± 15.3% predicted. One hundred four participants completed 12 months of follow-up (IG, n= 53; CG, n= 51). Of the 53 IG participants, 37 participants (70%) conducted the training until study end. We found no difference in change in CRQ dyspnea scale score over 12 months (adjusted mean difference, 0.28; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.80; P = .27). We found moderate evidence for a difference in 1MSTST repetitions favoring the IG (adjusted mean difference, 2.6; 95% CI, 0.22-5.03; P = .033), but no evidence for an effect in other outcomes. Seventy-nine percent of the IG reported positive effects that they attributed to the training., Interpretation: The home exercise program had no effect on dyspnea, but improved 1MSTST performance and patient-perceived fitness. The supported program was well accepted by patients with COPD and may facilitate continued exercise training at home., Trial Registry: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT03461887; URL: www., Clinicaltrials: gov., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The development of optimal strategies to treat impaired mobility related to ageing and chronic disease requires better ways to detect and measure it. Digital health technology, including body worn sensors, has the potential to directly and accurately capture real-world mobility. Mobilise-D consists of 34 partners from 13 countries who are working together to jointly develop and implement a digital mobility assessment solution to demonstrate that real-world digital mobility outcomes have the potential to provide a better, safer, and quicker way to assess, monitor, and predict the efficacy of new interventions on impaired mobility. The overarching objective of the study is to establish the clinical validity of digital outcomes in patient populations impacted by mobility challenges, and to support engagement with regulatory and health technology agencies towards acceptance of digital mobility assessment in regulatory and health technology assessment decisions., Methods/design: The Mobilise-D clinical validation study is a longitudinal observational cohort study that will recruit 2400 participants from four clinical cohorts. The populations of the Innovative Medicine Initiative-Joint Undertaking represent neurodegenerative conditions (Parkinson's Disease), respiratory disease (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease), neuro-inflammatory disorder (Multiple Sclerosis), fall-related injuries, osteoporosis, sarcopenia, and frailty (Proximal Femoral Fracture). In total, 17 clinical sites in ten countries will recruit participants who will be evaluated every six months over a period of two years. A wide range of core and cohort specific outcome measures will be collected, spanning patient-reported, observer-reported, and clinician-reported outcomes as well as performance-based outcomes (physical measures and cognitive/mental measures). Daily-living mobility and physical capacity will be assessed directly using a wearable device. These four clinical cohorts were chosen to obtain generalizable clinical findings, including diverse clinical, cultural, geographical, and age representation. The disease cohorts include a broad and heterogeneous range of subject characteristics with varying chronic care needs, and represent different trajectories of mobility disability., Discussion: The results of Mobilise-D will provide longitudinal data on the use of digital mobility outcomes to identify, stratify, and monitor disability. This will support the development of widespread, cost-effective access to optimal clinical mobility management through personalised healthcare. Further, Mobilise-D will provide evidence-based, direct measures which can be endorsed by regulatory agencies and health technology assessment bodies to quantify the impact of disease-modifying interventions on mobility., Trial Registration: ISRCTN12051706., Competing Interests: McRoberts is the manufacturer of the DynaPort. JE is employee of McRoberts. CB has done consultation work for Philipps Healthcare, Bosch Healthcare, Eli Lilly and Gait-up; he has received speaker honoraria from Amgen, Pfizer and Nutricia. LS is working as the Chief Technical Officer for Rölke Pharma. JMH reports having submitted a patent for assessment of mobility using wearable sensors in 400 Parkinson’s disease; the intellectual property rights 401 are held by the Tel Aviv Medical Center. GC has received consulting and speaking fees from Novartis, Sanofi Genzyme, Genzyme Corporation, Merck KGgA, Merck Serono SpA, Celgene Group, F. Hoffman-La Roche, Almirall SpA, Janssen. MFG is a full-time employee of Teva Pharmaceuticals. RRM is a full-time employee of The Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research. All other authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Objective: To evaluate the nationwide implementation of the "Living well with COPD" program by the Swiss Lung Association in various cantons in Switzerland., Methods: For the process evaluation, we used qualitative (interview, focus group) and quantitative (questionnaires, documentation analysis) methods to assess the implementation outcomes reach, dose, fidelity and acceptability. For the effectiveness, we performed a pre-post analysis of patient data collected at baseline and program end (after 14 months)., Results: Seven Cantonal Lung Associations implemented the program into their services according to plan, conducted it 13 times and included 122 COPD patients. Patients' attendance rate was 81% and coaches' fidelity to protocol 94%. Acceptance and satisfaction of all involved persons was high. Integration of the coaches' additional workload, uncertainties regarding roles and responsibilities and sustainable reimbursement were major challenges. Patients significantly improved in COPD specific quality of life and increased exercise capacity with on average 3.2 more repetitions in the 1-minute sit-to-stand test., Conclusion: The program was successfully implemented throughout Switzerland with high acceptability and positive association with patients' quality of life., Practice Implications: Our findings support the broader multiplication throughout Switzerland and serves the international community since it is one of the first nationwide implementations beyond study settings., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Since the benefit-harm balance of adding inhaled corticosteroids to long-acting β 2 -agonists (LABA) and long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMA) for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is unclear, we evaluated this addition for a range of patient profiles., Methods: Analyses considered the effects of low-to-moderate doses of inhaled corticosteroids, LABA, and LAMA compared with LABA and LAMA alone, outcome incidences, and preference weights assigned to averted moderate-to-severe exacerbations (benefit) and severe pneumonia, candidiasis, and dysphonia (harm). Using exponential models, we estimated the preference weight-adjusted 2-year net clinical benefit (ie, benefits outweighing harms) indices. Exacerbation risk thresholds for triggering inhaled corticosteroids, LABA, and LAMA were established when the probability of a 2-year net clinical benefit reached 60%. We estimated the proportion of patients benefiting from added inhaled corticosteroids using an externally validated prediction model for acute exacerbations in primary care., Findings: Adding low-to-moderate dose inhaled corticosteroids to LABA and LAMA provided a net clinical benefit in patients with a 2-year baseline exacerbation risk of 54-83%. Low-dose inhaled corticosteroids showed a net clinical benefit if the baseline risk was 40-91%, but not at higher doses. The benefit was modified by blood eosinophil count (BEC) and age. Although no net benefit was associated with a BEC of less than 150 cells per μL, patients with a BEC of 150 cells per μL or more had a net benefit from low-dose inhaled corticosteroids with a 2-year exacerbation risk of 32-95% in those aged 40-79 years and 41-93% in those older than 80 years. A moderate dose of inhaled corticosteroids showed a net benefit in patients younger than 80 years with a BEC of 150 cells per μL or more at 52-86% 2-year exacerbation risk. Depending on the subgroups, the proportion of patients with a net benefit from added inhaled corticosteroids ranged from 0 to 68%., Interpretation: The net clinical benefit of adding different inhaled corticosteroid doses to LABA and LAMA varies greatly with exacerbation risk, BEC, and age. Personalised treatment decisions based on these factors and predicted exacerbation risks might reduce overtreatment and undertreatment with inhaled corticosteroids., Funding: None., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Although mean physical activity in COPD patients declines by 400-500steps/day annually, it is unknown whether the natural progression is the same for all patients. We aimed to identify distinct physical activity progression patterns using a hypothesis-free approach and to assess their determinants., Methods: We pooled data from two cohorts (usual care arm of Urban Training [NCT01897298] and PROactive initial validation [NCT01388218] studies) measuring physical activity at baseline and 12 months (Dynaport MoveMonitor). We identified clusters (patterns) of physical activity progression (based on levels and changes of steps/day) using k-means, and compared baseline sociodemographic, interpersonal, environmental, clinical and psychological characteristics across patterns., Results: In 291 COPD patients (mean±SD 68±8 years, 81% male, FEV 1 59±19% pred ) we identified three distinct physical activity progression patterns: Inactive (n=173 [59%], baseline: 4621±1757 steps/day, 12-month change (Δ): -487±1201 steps/day), ActiveImprovers (n=49 [17%], baseline: 7727±3275 steps/day, Δ:+3378±2203 steps/day) and ActiveDecliners (n=69 [24%], baseline: 11 267±3009 steps/day, Δ: -2217±2085 steps/day). After adjustment in a mixed multinomial logistic regression model using Active Decliners as reference pattern, a lower 6-min walking distance (RRR [95% CI] 0.94 [0.90-0.98] per 10m, P=.001) and a higher mMRC dyspnea score (1.71 [1.12-2.60] per 1 point, P=.012) were independently related with being Inactive. No baseline variable was independently associated with being an Active Improver., Conclusions: The natural progression in physical activity over time in COPD patients is heterogeneous. While Inactive patients relate to worse scores for clinical COPD characteristics, Active Improvers and Decliners cannot be predicted at baseline., (Copyright © 2020 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Background: The Daily-PROactive and Clinical visit-PROactive Physical Activity (D-PPAC and C-PPAC) instruments in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) combines questionnaire with activity monitor data to measure patients' experience of physical activity. Their amount, difficulty and total scores range from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) but require further psychometric evaluation., Objective: To test reliability, validity and responsiveness, and to define minimal important difference (MID), of the D-PPAC and C-PPAC instruments, in a large population of patients with stable COPD from diverse severities, settings and countries., Methods: We used data from seven randomised controlled trials to evaluate D-PPAC and C-PPAC internal consistency and construct validity by sex, age groups, COPD severity, country and language as well as responsiveness to interventions, ability to detect change and MID., Results: We included 1324 patients (mean (SD) age 66 (8) years, forced expiratory volume in 1 s 55 (17)% predicted). Scores covered almost the full range from 0 to 100, showed strong internal consistency after stratification and correlated as a priori hypothesised with dyspnoea, health-related quality of life and exercise capacity. Difficulty scores improved after pharmacological treatment and pulmonary rehabilitation, while amount scores improved after behavioural physical activity interventions. All scores were responsive to changes in self-reported physical activity experience (both worsening and improvement) and to the occurrence of COPD exacerbations during follow-up. The MID was estimated to 6 for amount and difficulty scores and 4 for total score., Conclusions: The D-PPAC and C-PPAC instruments are reliable and valid across diverse COPD populations and responsive to pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions and changes in clinically relevant variables., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JG-A reports other from AstraZeneca, other from Esteve, other from Chiesi, other from Menarini, outside the submitted work. SC-R reports personal fees from AstraZeneca, outside the submitted work. DE reports personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, outside the submitted work. NI reports personal fees from Almirall, outside the submitted work. NK reports personal fees from AstraZeneca, outside the submitted work. MIP reports personal fees from Philips, grants, personal fees and non-financial support from GSK, during the conduct of the study. MS reports personal fees from Chiesi, outside the submitted work. MT reports personal fees and other from GSK, outside the submitted work. TT reports grants from IMI-JU PROactive grant, during the conduct of the study; other from Boehringer Ingelheim, other from AZ Belgium, outside the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: There is partial evidence that COPD is expressed differently in women than in men, namely on symptoms, pulmonary function, exacerbations, comorbidities or prognosis. There is a need to improve the characterization of COPD in females., Methods: We obtained and pooled data of 17 139 patients from 22 COPD cohorts and analysed the clinical differences by sex, establishing the relationship between these characteristics in women and the prognosis and severity of the disease. Comparisons were established with standard statistics and survival analysis, including crude and multivariate Cox-regression analysis., Results: Overall, 5355 (31.2%) women were compared with men with COPD. Women were younger, had lower pack-years, greater FEV 1 %, lower BMI and a greater number of exacerbations (all p < 0.05). On symptoms, women reported more dyspnea, equal cough but less expectoration (p < 0.001). There were no differences in the BODE index score in women (2.4) versus men (2.4) (p = 0.5), but the distribution of all BODE components was highly variable by sex within different thresholds of BODE. On prognosis, 5-year survival was higher in COPD females (86.9%) than in males (76.3%), p < 0.001, in all patients and within each of the specific comorbidities that we assessed. The crude and adjusted RR and 95% C.I. for death in males was 1.82 (1.69-1.96) and 1.73 (1.50-2.00), respectively., Conclusions: COPD in women has some characteristic traits expressed differently than compared to men, mainly with more dyspnea and COPD exacerbations and less phlegm, among others, although long-term survival appears better in female COPD patients., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background : This document provides clinical recommendations for the pharmacologic treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It represents a collaborative effort on the part of a panel of expert COPD clinicians and researchers along with a team of methodologists under the guidance of the American Thoracic Society. Methods : Comprehensive evidence syntheses were performed on all relevant studies that addressed the clinical questions and critical patient-centered outcomes agreed upon by the panel of experts. The evidence was appraised, rated, and graded, and recommendations were formulated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. Results : After weighing the quality of evidence and balancing the desirable and undesirable effects, the guideline panel made the following recommendations: 1 ) a strong recommendation for the use of long-acting β 2 -agonist (LABA)/long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) combination therapy over LABA or LAMA monotherapy in patients with COPD and dyspnea or exercise intolerance; 2 ) a conditional recommendation for the use of triple therapy with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS)/LABA/LAMA over dual therapy with LABA/LAMA in patients with COPD and dyspnea or exercise intolerance who have experienced one or more exacerbations in the past year; 3 ) a conditional recommendation for ICS withdrawal for patients with COPD receiving triple therapy (ICS/LABA/LAMA) if the patient has had no exacerbations in the past year; 4 ) no recommendation for or against ICS as an additive therapy to long-acting bronchodilators in patients with COPD and blood eosinophilia, except for those patients with a history of one or more exacerbations in the past year requiring antibiotics or oral steroids or hospitalization, for whom ICS is conditionally recommended as an additive therapy; 5 ) a conditional recommendation against the use of maintenance oral corticosteroids in patients with COPD and a history of severe and frequent exacerbations; and 6 ) a conditional recommendation for opioid-based therapy in patients with COPD who experience advanced refractory dyspnea despite otherwise optimal therapy. Conclusions : The task force made recommendations regarding the pharmacologic treatment of COPD based on currently available evidence. Additional research in populations that are underrepresented in clinical trials is needed, including studies in patients with COPD 80 years of age and older, those with multiple chronic health conditions, and those with a codiagnosis of COPD and asthma.

Background: Exercise training is an important component of pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) programmes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but the great majority of COPD patients who would benefit from PR never follow such programmes or fail to maintain exercise training after PR completion. Against this background, we developed an exercise training programme that requires minimal equipment and can be implemented long-term in the patient's home-setting. The aims of the HOMEX-1 and HOMEX-2 trials are to assess the effectiveness of this home-based exercise training programme in two groups of COPD patients over the course of one year: patients who have completed PR (HOMEX-1 trial) and patients who did not enrol in existing PR programmes within the last two years (HOMEX-2 trial)., Methods: HOMEX-1 and HOMEX-2 are multicentre, parallel group, randomised controlled trials. For both trials each, it is planned to include 120 study participants with a diagnosis of COPD. Participants will be randomised with a 1:1 ratio into the intervention group or the control group (usual care/no intervention). The intervention consists of minimal-equipment exercise training elements with progressive level of intensity, conducted by the participant during six days per week and instructed and coached by a trained health care professional during three home visits and regular telephone calls during one year. Primary outcome is change in dyspnoea (domain of Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire) from baseline to 12-months follow-up. Secondary outcomes are change in dyspnoea over the course of the year (assessed at 3, 6 and 12 month) and change in functional exercise capacity, physical activity, health-related quality of life, health status, exacerbations and symptoms from baseline to 12 months follow-up. In addition, explanatory, safety and cost-effectiveness outcomes will be assessed. We will conduct intention-to-treat analyses separately per trial and per protocol analyses as sensitivity analyses., Discussion: The HOMEX-1 and HOMEX-2 trials assess a novel intervention that provides an innovative way of making exercise training as accessible as possible for COPD patients. If the intervention proves to be effective long-term, it will fill the gap of providing an easily accessible and feasible intervention so that more COPD patients can follow an exercise programme., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: HOMEX-1 NCT03461887 (registration date: March 12, 2018; retrospectively registered); HOMEX-2 NCT03654092 (registration date: August 31, 2018).

Background: Many patients with an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are treated with antibiotics. However, the value of antibiotics remains uncertain, as systematic reviews and clinical trials have shown conflicting results., Objectives: To assess effects of antibiotics on treatment failure as observed between seven days and one month after treatment initiation (primary outcome) for management of acute COPD exacerbations, as well as their effects on other patient-important outcomes (mortality, adverse events, length of hospital stay, time to next exacerbation)., Search Methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, and other electronically available databases up to 26 September 2018., Selection Criteria: We sought to find randomised controlled trials (RCTs) including people with acute COPD exacerbations comparing antibiotic therapy and placebo and providing follow-up of at least seven days., Data Collection and Analysis: Two review authors independently screened references and extracted data from trial reports. We kept the three groups of outpatients, inpatients, and patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) separate for benefit outcomes and mortality because we considered them to be clinically too different to be summarised as a single group. We considered outpatients to have a mild to moderate exacerbation, inpatients to have a severe exacerbation, and ICU patients to have a very severe exacerbation. When authors of primary studies did not report outcomes or study details, we contacted them to request missing data. We calculated pooled risk ratios (RRs) for treatment failure, Peto odds ratios (ORs) for rare events (mortality and adverse events), and mean differences (MDs) for continuous outcomes using random-effects models. We used GRADE to assess the quality of the evidence. The primary outcome was treatment failure as observed between seven days and one month after treatment initiation., Main Results: We included 19 trials with 2663 participants (11 with outpatients, seven with inpatients, and one with ICU patients).For outpatients (with mild to moderate exacerbations), evidence of low quality suggests that currently available antibiotics statistically significantly reduced the risk for treatment failure between seven days and one month after treatment initiation (RR 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.94; I² = 31%; in absolute terms, reduction in treatment failures from 295 to 212 per 1000 treated participants, 95% CI 165 to 277). Studies providing older antibiotics not in use anymore yielded an RR of 0.69 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.90; I² = 31%). Evidence of low quality from one trial in outpatients suggested no effects of antibiotics on mortality (Peto OR 1.27, 95% CI 0.49 to 3.30). One trial reported no effects of antibiotics on re-exacerbations between two and six weeks after treatment initiation. Only one trial (N = 35) reported health-related quality of life but did not show a statistically significant difference between treatment and control groups.Evidence of moderate quality does not show that currently used antibiotics statistically significantly reduced the risk of treatment failure among inpatients with severe exacerbations (i.e. for inpatients excluding ICU patients) (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.12; I² = 50%), but trial results remain uncertain. In turn, the effect was statistically significant when trials included older antibiotics no longer in clinical use (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.00; I² = 39%). Evidence of moderate quality from two trials including inpatients shows no beneficial effects of antibiotics on mortality (Peto OR 2.48, 95% CI 0.94 to 6.55). Length of hospital stay (in days) was similar in antibiotic and placebo groups.The only trial with 93 patients admitted to the ICU showed a large and statistically significant effect on treatment failure (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.45; moderate-quality evidence; in absolute terms, reduction in treatment failures from 565 to 107 per 1000 treated participants, 95% CI 45 to 254). Results of this trial show a statistically significant effect on mortality (Peto OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.72; moderate-quality evidence) and on length of hospital stay (MD -9.60 days, 95% CI -12.84 to -6.36; low-quality evidence).Evidence of moderate quality gathered from trials conducted in all settings shows no statistically significant effect on overall incidence of adverse events (Peto OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.63; moderate-quality evidence) nor on diarrhoea (Peto OR 1.68, 95% CI 0.92 to 3.07; moderate-quality evidence)., Authors' Conclusions: Researchers have found that antibiotics have some effect on inpatients and outpatients, but these effects are small, and they are inconsistent for some outcomes (treatment failure) and absent for other outcomes (mortality, length of hospital stay). Analyses show a strong beneficial effect of antibiotics among ICU patients. Few data are available on the effects of antibiotics on health-related quality of life or on other patient-reported symptoms, and data show no statistically significant increase in the risk of adverse events with antibiotics compared to placebo. These inconsistent effects call for research into clinical signs and biomarkers that can help identify patients who would benefit from antibiotics, while sparing antibiotics for patients who are unlikely to experience benefit and for whom downsides of antibiotics (side effects, costs, and multi-resistance) should be avoided.

The vicious circle of dyspnoea-inactivity has been proposed, but never validated empirically, to explain the clinical course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to develop and validate externally a comprehensive vicious circle model.We utilised two methods. 1) Identification and validation of all published vicious circle models by a systematic literature search and fitting structural equation models to longitudinal data from the Spanish PAC-COPD (Phenotype and Course of COPD) cohort (n=210, mean age 68 years, mean forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) 54% predicted), testing both the hypothesised relationships between variables in the model ("paths") and model fit. 2) Development of a new model and external validation using longitudinal data from the Swiss and Dutch ICE COLD ERIC (International Collaborative Effort on Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease: Exacerbation Risk Index Cohorts) cohort (n=226, mean age 66 years, mean FEV 1 57% predicted).We identified nine vicious circle models for which structural equation models confirmed most hypothesised paths but showed inappropriate fit. In the new model, airflow limitation, hyperinflation, dyspnoea, physical activity, exercise capacity and COPD exacerbations remained related to other variables and model fit was appropriate. Fitting it to ICE COLD ERIC, all paths were replicated and model fit was appropriate.Previously published vicious circle models do not fully explain the vicious circle concept. We developed and externally validated a new comprehensive model that gives a more relevant role to exercise capacity and COPD exacerbations., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: A. Agustí reports receiving grants and personal fees from AstraZeneca, GSK and Menarini, grants from MSD, and personal fees from Novartis, Teva and Chiesi, outside the submitted work. Conflict of interest: R. Rodriguez-Roisin reports receiving grants from Almirall and Menarini, personal fees for service on an advisory board from Boehringer Ingelheim, Pearl Therapeutics and Teva, and lecture fees from Novartis and Takeda, during the conduct of the study, all related to COPD. Conflict of interest: J. Garcia-Aymerich reports payments to her institution for consulting and lecturing from AstraZeneca, and receiving lecture fees from Esteve and Chiesi, outside the submitted work., (Copyright ©ERS 2018.)

Background: Evidence from longitudinal studies on the impact of exacerbation symptoms on physical activity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is lacking. The aim of this first exploratory study was to assess the association between exacerbation symptoms and physical activity, and to quantify the relative influence of specific symptoms., Methods: We recruited COPD patients at high risk for exacerbations from 2 pulmonary rehabilitation clinics and 1 acute care clinic in Switzerland. For 3 months after discharge, patients completed a daily symptom diary on a smartphone application, the EXAcerbations of Chronic pulmonary disease Tool (EXACT), and wore a pedometer to measure daily steps. We used mixed-effects models to determine the association of daily steps with exacerbation symptoms., Results: A total of 21 patients (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease grades 2-4) were enrolled for a mean of 94.4 days (standard deviation 4.2). The baseline median number of daily steps was 3,264.6 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1,851.3-4,784.1) and EXACT score was 37.0 (IQR: 30.9-41.4). A 12-point increase in EXACT score (indicating the start of an exacerbation) was statistically significantly associated with a decrease in daily steps of 653.3 (95% CI 969.7-336.9). Chest symptoms (tightness, discomfort and congestion) were more strongly associated with change in steps than breathlessness, and cough and sputum ( z -value -4.5 vs -2.9 and -3.0)., Conclusion: This is the first study to show that, in a small cohort of COPD patients, increases in exacerbation symptoms were associated with a statistically and clinically significant reduction in daily physical activity. These results underscore the importance for symptom control and exacerbation prevention in COPD patients., Competing Interests: Disclosure The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

Background: External validations and comparisons of prognostic models or scores are a prerequisite for their use in routine clinical care but are lacking in most medical fields including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to externally validate and concurrently compare prognostic scores for 3-year all-cause mortality in mostly multimorbid patients with COPD., Methods: We relied on 24 cohort studies of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment consortium, corresponding to primary, secondary, and tertiary care in Europe, the Americas, and Japan. These studies include globally 15,762 patients with COPD (1871 deaths and 42,203 person years of follow-up). We used network meta-analysis adapted to multiple score comparison (MSC), following a frequentist two-stage approach; thus, we were able to compare all scores in a single analytical framework accounting for correlations among scores within cohorts. We assessed transitivity, heterogeneity, and inconsistency and provided a performance ranking of the prognostic scores., Results: Depending on data availability, between two and nine prognostic scores could be calculated for each cohort. The BODE score (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) had a median area under the curve (AUC) of 0.679 [1st quartile-3rd quartile = 0.655-0.733] across cohorts. The ADO score (age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction) showed the best performance for predicting mortality (difference AUC ADO - AUC BODE = 0.015 [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.002 to 0.032]; p = 0.08) followed by the updated BODE (AUC BODE updated - AUC BODE = 0.008 [95% CI = -0.005 to +0.022]; p = 0.23). The assumption of transitivity was not violated. Heterogeneity across direct comparisons was small, and we did not identify any local or global inconsistency., Conclusions: Our analyses showed best discriminatory performance for the ADO and updated BODE scores in patients with COPD. A limitation to be addressed in future studies is the extension of MSC network meta-analysis to measures of calibration. MSC network meta-analysis can be applied to prognostic scores in any medical field to identify the best scores, possibly paving the way for stratified medicine, public health, and research.

The pivotal objective of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) self-management programmes is behaviour change to avoid moderate and severe exacerbations and improve health related quality of life.In a prospectively planned, controlled study, COPD patients who participated in the "Living well with COPD" (LWWCOPD) self-management intervention were compared with usual care patients from the primary care COPD Cohort ICE COLD ERIC, who did not receive self-management intervention (NCT00706602) The primary outcome was behaviour change and disease-specific health related quality of life after 1 year. Secondary end-points included exacerbation rates. We calculated mixed linear, zero-inflated negative binomial and logistic regression models and used propensity scores to counteract confounding.467 patients, 71 from the LWWCOPD and 396 from the usual care cohort, were included. The differences between intervention and control were 0.54 (95% CI 0.13-0.94) on the Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire domain "mastery", 0.55 (95% CI 0.11-0.99) on "fatigue", 0.54 (0.14-0.93) on "emotional function" and 0.64 (95% CI 0.14-1.14) on "dyspnoea". The intervention considerably reduced the risk of moderate and severe exacerbations (incidence rate ratio 0.36, 95% CI 0.25-0.52).Self-management coaching in primary care improves health-related quality of life and lowers exacerbation rates and health care use., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: Disclosures can be found alongside this article at erj.ersjournals.com, (Copyright ©ERS 2018.)

Background: There is a general notion that stressful life events may cause mental and physical health problems., Objectives: We aimed to describe stressful life events reported by patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to assess their impact on health outcomes and behaviors., Methods: Two hundred and sixty-six primary care patients who participated in the ICE COLD ERIC cohort study were asked to document any stressful life events in the past 3 years. We assessed the before-after (the event) changes for symptoms of depression and anxiety, health status, dyspnea-related quality of life, exacerbations, cigarette use, and physical activity. We used linear regression analysis to estimate the crude and adjusted magnitude of the before-after changes., Results: About 41% (110/266) of patients reported the experience of any stressful life events and "death of relatives/important persons" was most common (31%). After accounting for age, sex, living status, lung function, and anxiety/depression status at baseline, experiencing any stressful life events was associated with a 0.9-point increase on the depression scale (95% CI 0.3 to 1.4), a 0.8-point increase on the anxiety scale (95% CI 0.3 to 1.3), and a 0.8-point decrease in the physical activity score (95% CI -1.6 to 0)., Conclusions: Experiencing stressful life events was associated with a small to moderate increase in symptoms of depression and anxiety in COPD, but no discernable effect was found for other physical outcomes. However, confirmation of these results in other COPD cohorts and identification of patients particularly vulnerable to stressful life events are needed., (© 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Background: Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them., Methods: Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC) which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD) arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined., Results: We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small., Conclusions: We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties of clinical scores. Our large-scale external validation indicates that the scores with the best discriminative properties to predict 3 year mortality in patients with COPD are ADO and eBODE.

Background: Several cross-sectional and short-term studies suggest that patient-reported outcomes (PROs) may be useful to help predict COPD exacerbations, but evidence from long-term prospective cohort studies is lacking. Our aim was to assess if PROs add to the prediction of exacerbations., Methods: Four hundred eight primary care patients with COPD participated in the multicenter prospective International Collaborative Effort on Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease: Exacerbation Risk Index Cohorts (ICE COLD ERIC) study. PROs included the Chronic Respiratory Disease Questionnaire, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Feeling Thermometer, and the LASA Physical Activity Questionnaire (LAPAQ). Exacerbations during 4½ years were adjudicated by experts. We used negative binomial regression to assess the association between PROs and exacerbations while considering age, sex, airflow obstruction, previous exacerbations, and smoking status. We then assessed if adding PROs improved the predictive properties of widely used indices., Results: Lower levels of dyspnea, fatigue, and anxiety and higher levels of physical activity were associated with a lower risk of exacerbations (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97; P = .01; IRR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.86-1.00; P = .04; IRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.06; P = .03; IRR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.99; P = .04, respectively). The best prediction was when LAPAQ was added to the BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and previous exacerbations (BODEx) index (area under the curve Δ+0.02, from 0.72-0.74). However, this increase was not clinically relevant (net reclassification improvement, 0.03; 95% CI, -0.03 to 0.08)., Conclusions: Some domains of PROs are independently associated with exacerbations but do not lead to clearly improved prediction when added to established indices to predict exacerbations. There is still much room for improvement in the prediction of exacerbations., Trial Registry: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT00706602., (Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This study aimed to identify simple rules for allocating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients to clinical phenotypes identified by cluster analyses.Data from 2409 COPD patients of French/Belgian COPD cohorts were analysed using cluster analysis resulting in the identification of subgroups, for which clinical relevance was determined by comparing 3-year all-cause mortality. Classification and regression trees (CARTs) were used to develop an algorithm for allocating patients to these subgroups. This algorithm was tested in 3651 patients from the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative.Cluster analysis identified five subgroups of COPD patients with different clinical characteristics (especially regarding severity of respiratory disease and the presence of cardiovascular comorbidities and diabetes). The CART-based algorithm indicated that the variables relevant for patient grouping differed markedly between patients with isolated respiratory disease (FEV 1 , dyspnoea grade) and those with multi-morbidity (dyspnoea grade, age, FEV 1 and body mass index). Application of this algorithm to the 3CIA cohorts confirmed that it identified subgroups of patients with different clinical characteristics, mortality rates (median, from 4% to 27%) and age at death (median, from 68 to 76 years).A simple algorithm, integrating respiratory characteristics and comorbidities, allowed the identification of clinically relevant COPD phenotypes., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: Disclosures can be found alongside this article at erj.ersjournals.com, (Copyright ©ERS 2017.)

Background: COPD is a heterogeneous disease, but there is little consensus on specific definitions for COPD subtypes. Unsupervised clustering offers the promise of 'unbiased' data-driven assessment of COPD heterogeneity. Multiple groups have identified COPD subtypes using cluster analysis, but there has been no systematic assessment of the reproducibility of these subtypes., Objective: We performed clustering analyses across 10 cohorts in North America and Europe in order to assess the reproducibility of (1) correlation patterns of key COPD-related clinical characteristics and (2) clustering results., Methods: We studied 17 146 individuals with COPD using identical methods and common COPD-related characteristics across cohorts (FEV 1 , FEV 1 /FVC, FVC, body mass index, Modified Medical Research Council score, asthma and cardiovascular comorbid disease). Correlation patterns between these clinical characteristics were assessed by principal components analysis (PCA). Cluster analysis was performed using k-medoids and hierarchical clustering, and concordance of clustering solutions was quantified with normalised mutual information (NMI), a metric that ranges from 0 to 1 with higher values indicating greater concordance., Results: The reproducibility of COPD clustering subtypes across studies was modest (median NMI range 0.17-0.43). For methods that excluded individuals that did not clearly belong to any cluster, agreement was better but still suboptimal (median NMI range 0.32-0.60). Continuous representations of COPD clinical characteristics derived from PCA were much more consistent across studies., Conclusions: Identical clustering analyses across multiple COPD cohorts showed modest reproducibility. COPD heterogeneity is better characterised by continuous disease traits coexisting in varying degrees within the same individual, rather than by mutually exclusive COPD subtypes., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Over the past 3 years, PJC has received research support and consulting fees from GSK. Other authors have no competing interests to declare., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: COPD prevalence is highly variable and geographical altitude has been linked to it, yet with conflicting results. We aimed to investigate this association, considering well known risk factors., Methods: A pooled analysis of individual data from the PREPOCOL-PLATINO-BOLD-EPI-SCAN studies was used to disentangle the population effect of geographical altitude on COPD prevalence. Post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC below the lower limit of normal defined airflow limitation consistent with COPD. High altitude was defined as >1500 m above sea level. Undiagnosed COPD was considered when participants had airflow limitation but did not report a prior diagnosis of COPD., Results: Among 30,874 participants aged 56.1 ± 11.3 years from 44 sites worldwide, 55.8% were women, 49.6% never-smokers, and 12.9% (3978 subjects) were residing above 1500 m. COPD prevalence was significantly lower in participants living at high altitude with a prevalence of 8.5% compared to 9.9%, respectively (p < 0.005). However, known risk factors were significantly less frequent at high altitude. Hence, in the adjusted multivariate analysis, altitude itself had no significant influence on COPD prevalence. Living at high altitude, however, was associated with a significantly increased risk of undiagnosed COPD. Furthermore, subjects with airflow limitation living at high altitude reported significantly less respiratory symptoms compared to subjects residing at lower altitude., Conclusion: Living at high altitude is not associated with a difference in COPD prevalence after accounting for individual risk factors. However, high altitude itself was associated with an increased risk of undiagnosed COPD.

Multi-morbidity is common in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and low levels of physical activity are hypothesized to be an important risk factor. The current study aimed to assess the longitudinal association between physical activity and risk of seven categories of comorbidity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. The study included 409 patients from primary care practice in the Netherlands and Switzerland. We assessed physical activity using the Longitudinal Ageing Study Amsterdam Physical Activity Questionnaire at baseline and followed patients for up to 5 years. During follow-up, patients reported their comorbidities (cardiovascular, neurological, endocrine, musculoskeletal, malignant, and infectious diseases) and completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale questionnaire for mental health assessment. We implemented multinomial logistic regression (an approximation to discrete time survival model using death as a competing risk) for our analysis. Study results did not suggest a statistically significant association of baseline physical activity with the development of seven categories of comorbidity. However, when we focused on depression and anxiety symptoms, we found that higher levels of physical activity at baseline were associated with a lower risk for depression (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.85; 0.75-0.95; p = 0.005) and anxiety (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.89; 0.79-1.00; p = 0.045). In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients, those with high physical activity are less likely to develop depression or anxiety symptoms over time. Increasing physical activity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients may be an approach for testing to lower the burden from incident depression and anxiety., Chronic Lung Disease: STAY ACTIVE TO AVOID DEPRESSION AND ANXIETY: Patients with chronic lung disease who stay physically active could reduce their chances of depression and anxiety. Milo Puhan at the University of Zurich, Switzerland, and co-workers assessed the association between physical activity and the risk of developing various co-existing diseases in 409 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Co-morbidities such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and depression are prevalent in patients with COPD, but the reasons why are not clear. Puhan's team assessed patients' activity levels using an existing questionnaire, and administered another questionnaire to assess mental health. They followed the cohort for 5 years. Results indicated weak associations between physical activity levels and most physical illnesses, but there were significant links between higher levels of physical activity and a reduced risk of depression and anxiety. The results could inform novel COPD treatment programs.

Our aim was to comprehensively validate the 1-min sit-to-stand (STS) test in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients and explore the physiological response to the test.We used data from two longitudinal studies of COPD patients who completed inpatient pulmonary rehabilitation programmes. We collected 1-min STS test, 6-min walk test (6MWT), health-related quality of life, dyspnoea and exercise cardiorespiratory data at admission and discharge. We assessed the learning effect, test-retest reliability, construct validity, responsiveness and minimal important difference of the 1-min STS test.In both studies (n=52 and n=203) the 1-min STS test was strongly correlated with the 6MWT at admission (r=0.59 and 0.64, respectively) and discharge (r=0.67 and 0.68, respectively). Intraclass correlation coefficients (95% CI) between 1-min STS tests were 0.93 (0.83-0.97) for learning effect and 0.99 (0.97-1.00) for reliability. Standardised response means (95% CI) were 0.87 (0.58-1.16) and 0.91 (0.78-1.07). The estimated minimal important difference was three repetitions. End-exercise oxygen consumption, carbon dioxide output, ventilation, breathing frequency and heart rate were similar in the 1-min STS test and 6MWT.The 1-min STS test is a reliable, valid and responsive test for measuring functional exercise capacity in COPD patients and elicited a physiological response comparable to that of the 6MWT., (Copyright ©ERS 2017.)

Personalised medicine aims to tailor medical decisions to the individual patient. A possible approach is to stratify patients according to the risk of adverse outcomes such as exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Risk-stratified approaches are particularly attractive for drugs like inhaled corticosteroids or phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitors that reduce exacerbations but are associated with harms. However, it is currently not clear which models are best to predict exacerbations in patients with COPD. Therefore, our aim was to identify and critically appraise studies on models that predict exacerbations in COPD patients. Out of 1382 studies, 25 studies with 27 prediction models were included. The prediction models showed great heterogeneity in terms of number and type of predictors, time horizon, statistical methods and measures of prediction model performance. Only two out of 25 studies validated the developed model, and only one out of 27 models provided estimates of individual exacerbation risk, only three out of 27 prediction models used high-quality statistical approaches for model development and evaluation. Overall, none of the existing models fulfilled the requirements for risk-stratified treatment to personalise COPD care. A more harmonised approach to develop and validate high- quality prediction models is needed to move personalised COPD medicine forward., (Copyright ©ERS 2017.)

Background: Guidelines have provided positive recommendations for pulmonary rehabilitation after exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but recent studies indicate that postexacerbation rehabilitation may not always be effective in patients with unstable COPD., Objectives: To assess effects of pulmonary rehabilitation after COPD exacerbations on hospital admissions (primary outcome) and other patient-important outcomes (mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQL) and exercise capacity)., Search Methods: We identified studies through searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, PEDro (Physiotherapy Evidence Database) and the Cochrane Airways Review Group Register of Trials. Searches were current as of 20 October 2015, and handsearches were run up to 5 April 2016., Selection Criteria: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing pulmonary rehabilitation of any duration after exacerbation of COPD versus conventional care. Pulmonary rehabilitation programmes had to include at least physical exercise (endurance or strength exercise, or both). We did not apply a criterion for the minimum number of exercise sessions a rehabilitation programme had to offer to be included in the review. Control groups received conventional community care without rehabilitation., Data Collection and Analysis: We expected substantial heterogeneity across trials in terms of how extensive rehabilitation programmes were (i.e. in terms of number of completed exercise sessions; type, intensity and supervision of exercise training; and patient education), duration of follow-up (< 3 months vs ≥ 3 months) and risk of bias (generation of random sequence, concealment of random allocation and blinding); therefore, we performed subgroup analyses that were defined before we carried them out. We used standard methods expected by Cochrane in preparing this update, and we used GRADE for assessing the quality of evidence., Main Results: For this update, we added 11 studies and included a total of 20 studies (1477 participants). Rehabilitation programmes showed great diversity in terms of exercise training (number of completed exercise sessions; type, intensity and supervision), patient education (from none to extensive self-management programmes) and how they were organised (within one setting, e.g. pulmonary rehabilitation, to across several settings, e.g. hospital, outpatient centre and home). In eight studies, participants completed extensive pulmonary rehabilitation, and in 12 studies, participants completed pulmonary rehabilitation ranging from not extensive to moderately extensive.Eight studies involving 810 participants contributed data on hospital readmissions. Moderate-quality evidence indicates that pulmonary rehabilitation reduced hospital readmissions (pooled odds ratio (OR) 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21 to 0.91), but results were heterogenous (I 2 = 77%). Extensiveness of rehabilitation programmes and risk of bias may offer an explanation for the heterogeneity, but subgroup analyses were not statistically significant (P values for subgroup effects were between 0.07 and 0.11). Six studies including 670 participants contributed data on mortality. The quality of evidence was low, and the meta-analysis did not show a statistically significant effect of rehabilitation on mortality (pooled OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.28 to 1.67). Again, results were heterogenous (I 2 = 59%). Subgroup analyses showed statistically significant differences in subgroup effects between trials with more and less extensive rehabilitation programmes and between trials at low and high risk for bias, indicating possible explanations for the heterogeneity. Hospital readmissions and mortality studies newly included in this update showed, on average, significantly smaller effects of rehabilitation than were seen in earlier studies.High-quality evidence suggests that pulmonary rehabilitation after an exacerbation improves health-related quality of life. The eight studies that used St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) reported a statistically significant effect on SGRQ total score, which was above the minimal important difference (MID) of four points (mean difference (MD) -7.80, 95% CI -12.12 to -3.47; I 2 = 64%). Investigators also noted statistically significant and important effects (greater than MID) for the impact and activities domains of the SGRQ. Effects were not statistically significant for the SGRQ symptoms domain. Again, all of these analyses showed heterogeneity, but most studies showed positive effects of pulmonary rehabilitation, some studies showed large effects and others smaller but statistically significant effects. Trials at high risk of bias because of lack of concealment of random allocation showed statistically significantly larger effects on the SGRQ than trials at low risk of bias. High-quality evidence shows that six-minute walk distance (6MWD) improved, on average, by 62 meters (95% CI 38 to 86; I 2 = 87%). Heterogeneity was driven particularly by differences between studies showing very large effects and studies showing smaller but statistically significant effects. For both health-related quality of life and exercise capacity, studies newly included in this update showed, on average, smaller effects of rehabilitation than were seen in earlier studies, but the overall results of this review have not changed to an important extent compared with results reported in the earlier version of this review.Five studies involving 278 participants explicitly recorded adverse events, four studies reported no adverse events during rehabilitation programmes and one study reported one serious event., Authors' Conclusions: Overall, evidence of high quality shows moderate to large effects of rehabilitation on health-related quality of life and exercise capacity in patients with COPD after an exacerbation. Some recent studies showed no benefit of rehabilitation on hospital readmissions and mortality and introduced heterogeneity as compared with the last update of this review. Such heterogeneity of effects on hospital readmissions and mortality may be explained to some extent by the extensiveness of rehabilitation programmes and by the methodological quality of the included studies. Future researchers must investigate how the extent of rehabilitation programmes in terms of exercise sessions, self-management education and other components affects the outcomes, and how the organisation of such programmes within specific healthcare systems determines their effects after COPD exacerbations on hospital readmissions and mortality.

Prediction models should be externally validated before being used in clinical practice. Many published prediction models have never been validated. Uncollected predictor variables in otherwise suitable validation cohorts are the main factor precluding external validation. We used individual patient data from 9 different cohort studies conducted in the United States, Europe, and Latin America that included 7,892 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who enrolled between 1981 and 2006. Data on 3-year mortality and the predictors of age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction were available. We simulated missing data by omitting the predictor dyspnea cohort-wide, and we present 6 methods for handling the missing variable. We assessed model performance with regard to discriminative ability and calibration and by using 2 vignette scenarios. We showed that the use of any imputation method outperforms the omission of the cohort from the validation, which is a commonly used approach. Compared with using the full data set without the missing variable (benchmark), multiple imputation with fixed or random intercepts for cohorts was the best approach to impute the systematically missing predictor. Findings of this study may facilitate the use of cohort studies that do not include all predictors and pave the way for more widespread external validation of prediction models even if 1 or more predictors of the model are systematically missing., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: COPD exacerbation incidence rates are often ascertained retrospectively through patient recall and self-reports. We compared exacerbation ascertainment through patient self-reports and single-physician chart review to central adjudication by a committee and explored determinants and consequences of misclassification., Methods: Self-reported exacerbations (event-based definition) in 409 primary care patients with COPD participating in the International Collaborative Effort on Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease: Exacerbation Risk Index Cohorts (ICE COLD ERIC) cohort were ascertained every 6 months over 3 years. Exacerbations were adjudicated by single experienced physicians and an adjudication committee who had information from patient charts. We assessed the accuracy (sensitivities and specificities) of self-reports and single-physician chart review against a central adjudication committee (AC) (reference standard). We used multinomial logistic regression and bootstrap stability analyses to explore determinants of misclassifications., Results: The AC identified 648 exacerbations, corresponding to an incidence rate of 0.60 ± 0.83 exacerbations/patient-year and a cumulative incidence proportion of 58.9%. Patients self-reported 841 exacerbations (incidence rate, 0.75 ± 1.01; incidence proportion, 59.7%). The sensitivity and specificity of self-reports were 84% and 76%, respectively, those of single-physician chart review were between 89% and 96% and 87% and 99%, respectively. The multinomial regression model and bootstrap selection showed that having experienced more exacerbations was the only factor consistently associated with underreporting and overreporting of exacerbations (underreporters: relative risk ratio [RRR], 2.16; 95% CI, 1.76-2.65 and overreporters: RRR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.39-2.00)., Conclusions: Patient 6-month recall of exacerbation events are inaccurate. This may lead to inaccurate estimates of incidence measures and underestimation of treatment effects. The use of multiple data sources combined with event adjudication could substantially reduce sample size requirements and possibly cost of studies., Clinical Trial Registration: www.ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00706602., (Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Although many studies examined determinants of physical activity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), most were cross-sectional and focused on single determinants only., Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine how COPD patients' physical activity changes over time and to identify the determinants of physical activity using multivariable and longitudinal methods., Methods: In a prospective cohort study, 409 primary care patients with COPD in the Netherlands and Switzerland were followed for up to 5 years. Physical activity was assessed at baseline and every 6 months using the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam Physical Activity Questionnaire (LAPAQ) adapted to a 0- to 23-point scale. We studied the associations between determinants at baseline and patients' long-term physical activity levels using linear mixed models., Results: Unadjusted analysis showed an overall gradual decline in physical activity (0.22 points of the LAPAQ scale every 6 months, 95% CI: 0.17-0.28; p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, baseline determinants that were independently associated (p ≤ 0.05) with lower long-term physical activity levels included (starting from coefficients with the smallest p value) lower exercise capacity, older age, working, more smoking pack-years, more fatigued, male sex, lower educational levels, previously not in fitness programs, more depressed, lower lung function, lower overall health status, and more prescription drug use., Conclusions: We found that physical activity of COPD patients may decline more than reported in the healthy elderly. Longitudinal analysis identified independent determinants of physical activity, which allows the identification of patients having low physical activity levels and who may benefit from physical activity interventions., (© 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

No current patient-centred instrument captures all dimensions of physical activity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our objective was item reduction and initial validation of two instruments to measure physical activity in COPD.Physical activity was assessed in a 6-week, randomised, two-way cross-over, multicentre study using PROactive draft questionnaires (daily and clinical visit versions) and two activity monitors. Item reduction followed an iterative process including classical and Rasch model analyses, and input from patients and clinical experts.236 COPD patients from five European centres were included. Results indicated the concept of physical activity in COPD had two domains, labelled "amount" and "difficulty". After item reduction, the daily PROactive instrument comprised nine items and the clinical visit contained 14. Both demonstrated good model fit (person separation index >0.7). Confirmatory factor analysis supported the bidimensional structure. Both instruments had good internal consistency (Cronbach's α>0.8), test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient ≥0.9) and exhibited moderate-to-high correlations (r>0.6) with related constructs and very low correlations (r<0.3) with unrelated constructs, providing evidence for construct validity.Daily and clinical visit "PROactive physical activity in COPD" instruments are hybrid tools combining a short patient-reported outcome questionnaire and two activity monitor variables which provide simple, valid and reliable measures of physical activity in COPD patients., (Copyright ©ERS 2015.)

Background: When faced with uncertainties about the effects of medical interventions regulatory agencies, guideline developers, clinicians, and researchers commonly ask for more research, and in particular for more randomized trials. The conduct of additional randomized trials is, however, sometimes not the most efficient way to reduce uncertainty. Instead, approaches such as value of information analysis or other approaches should be used to prioritize research that will most likely reduce uncertainty and inform decisions., Discussion: In situations where additional research for specific interventions needs to be prioritized, we propose the use of quantitative benefit-harm assessments that illustrate how the benefit-harm balance may change as a consequence of additional research. The example of roflumilast for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease shows that additional research on patient preferences (e.g., how important are exacerbations relative to psychiatric harms?) or outcome risks (e.g., what is the incidence of psychiatric outcomes in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease without treatment?) is sometimes more valuable than additional randomized trials. We propose that quantitative benefit-harm assessments have the potential to explore the impact of additional research and to identify research priorities Our approach may be seen as another type of value of information analysis and as a useful approach to stimulate specific new research that has the potential to change current estimates of the benefit-harm balance and decision making.

Background: There is no universal consensus on the best staging system for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Although documents (eg, the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] 2007) have traditionally used forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) for staging, clinical parameters have been added to some guidelines (eg, GOLD 2011) to improve patient management. As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aimed to investigate how individual patients were categorised by GOLD 2007 and 2011, and compare the prognostic accuracy of the staging documents for mortality., Methods: We searched reports published from Jan 1, 2008, to Dec 31, 2014. Using data from cohorts that agreed to participate and had a minimum amount of information needed for GOLD 2007 and 2011, we did a patient-based pooled analysis of existing data. With use of raw data, we recalculated all participant assignments to GOLD 2007 I-IV classes, and GOLD 2011 A-D stages. We used survival analysis, C statistics, and non-parametric regression to model time-to-death data and compare GOLD 2007 and GOLD 2011 staging systems to predict mortality., Findings: We collected individual data for 15 632 patients from 22 COPD cohorts from seven countries, totalling 70 184 person-years. Mean age of the patients was 63·9 years (SD 10·1); 10 751 (69%) were men. Based on FEV1 alone (GOLD 2007), 2424 (16%) patients had mild (I), 7142 (46%) moderate (II), 4346 (28%) severe (III), and 1670 (11%) very severe (IV) disease. We compared staging with the GOLD 2007 document with that of the new GOLD 2011 system in 14 660 patients: 5548 (38%) were grade A, 2733 (19%) were grade B, 1835 (13%) were grade C, and 4544 (31%) were grade D. GOLD 2011 shifted the overall COPD severity distribution to more severe categories. There were nearly three times more COPD patients in stage D than in former stage IV (p<0·05). The predictive capacity for survival up to 10 years was significant for both systems (p<0·01) but area under the curves were only 0·623 (GOLD 2007) and 0·634 (GOLD 2011), and GOLD 2007 and 2011 did not differ significantly. We identified the percent predicted FEV1 thresholds of 85%, 55% and 35% as better to stage COPD severity for mortality, which are similar to the ones used previously., Interpretation: Neither GOLD COPD classification schemes have sufficient discriminatory power to be used clinically for risk classification at the individual level to predict total mortality for 3 years of follow-up and onwards. Increasing intensity of treatment of patients with COPD due to their GOLD 2011 reclassification is not known to improve health outcomes. Evidence-based thresholds should be searched when exploring the prognostic ability of current and new COPD multicomponent indices., Funding: None., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Importance: Comorbidities are common in COPD, but quantifying their burden is difficult. Currently there is a COPD-specific comorbidity index to predict mortality and another to predict general quality of life. We sought to develop and validate a COPD-specific comorbidity score that reflects comorbidity burden on patient-centered outcomes., Materials and Methods: Using the COPDGene study (GOLD II-IV COPD), we developed comorbidity scores to describe patient-centered outcomes employing three techniques: 1) simple count, 2) weighted score, and 3) weighted score based upon statistical selection procedure. We tested associations, area under the Curve (AUC) and calibration statistics to validate scores internally with outcomes of respiratory disease-specific quality of life (St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire, SGRQ), six minute walk distance (6MWD), modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea score and exacerbation risk, ultimately choosing one score for external validation in SPIROMICS., Results: Associations between comorbidities and all outcomes were comparable across the three scores. All scores added predictive ability to models including age, gender, race, current smoking status, pack-years smoked and FEV1 (p<0.001 for all comparisons). Area under the curve (AUC) was similar between all three scores across outcomes: SGRQ (range 0·7624-0·7676), MMRC (0·7590-0·7644), 6MWD (0·7531-0·7560) and exacerbation risk (0·6831-0·6919). Because of similar performance, the comorbidity count was used for external validation. In the SPIROMICS cohort, the comorbidity count performed well to predict SGRQ (AUC 0·7891), MMRC (AUC 0·7611), 6MWD (AUC 0·7086), and exacerbation risk (AUC 0·7341)., Conclusions: Quantifying comorbidity provides a more thorough understanding of the risk for patient-centered outcomes in COPD. A comorbidity count performs well to quantify comorbidity in a diverse population with COPD.

This European Respiratory Society (ERS) statement provides a comprehensive overview on physical activity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A multidisciplinary Task Force of experts representing the ERS Scientific Group 01.02 "Rehabilitation and Chronic Care" determined the overall scope of this statement through consensus. Focused literature reviews were conducted in key topic areas and the final content of this Statement was agreed upon by all members. The current knowledge regarding physical activity in COPD is presented, including the definition of physical activity, the consequences of physical inactivity on lung function decline and COPD incidence, physical activity assessment, prevalence of physical inactivity in COPD, clinical correlates of physical activity, effects of physical inactivity on hospitalisations and mortality, and treatment strategies to improve physical activity in patients with COPD. This Task Force identified multiple major areas of research that need to be addressed further in the coming years. These include, but are not limited to, the disease-modifying potential of increased physical activity, and to further understand how improvements in exercise capacity, dyspnoea and self-efficacy following interventions may translate into increased physical activity. The Task Force recommends that this ERS statement should be reviewed periodically (e.g. every 5-8 years)., (©ERS 2014.)

Although physical activity is considered an important therapeutic target in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), what "physical activity" means to COPD patients and how their perspective is best measured is poorly understood. We designed a conceptual framework, guiding the development and content validation of two patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments on physical activity (PROactive PRO instruments). 116 patients from four European countries with diverse demographics and COPD phenotypes participated in three consecutive qualitative studies (63% male, age mean±sd 66±9 years, 35% Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage III-IV). 23 interviews and eight focus groups (n = 54) identified the main themes and candidate items of the framework. 39 cognitive debriefings allowed the clarity of the items and instructions to be optimised. Three themes emerged, i.e. impact of COPD on amount of physical activity, symptoms experienced during physical activity, and adaptations made to facilitate physical activity. The themes were similar irrespective of country, demographic or disease characteristics. Iterative rounds of appraisal and refinement of candidate items resulted in 30 items with a daily recall period and 34 items with a 7-day recall period. For the first time, our approach provides comprehensive insight on physical activity from the COPD patients' perspective. The PROactive PRO instruments' content validity represents the pivotal basis for empirically based item reduction and validation., (©ERS 2014.)

Background: In prognostic studies, the lasso technique is attractive since it improves the quality of predictions by shrinking regression coefficients, compared to predictions based on a model fitted via unpenalized maximum likelihood. Since some coefficients are set to zero, parsimony is achieved as well. It is unclear whether the performance of a model fitted using the lasso still shows some optimism. Bootstrap methods have been advocated to quantify optimism and generalize model performance to new subjects. It is unclear how resampling should be performed in the presence of multiply imputed data., Method: The data were based on a cohort of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease patients. We constructed models to predict Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire dyspnea 6 months ahead. Optimism of the lasso model was investigated by comparing 4 approaches of handling multiply imputed data in the bootstrap procedure, using the study data and simulated data sets. In the first 3 approaches, data sets that had been completed via multiple imputation (MI) were resampled, while the fourth approach resampled the incomplete data set and then performed MI., Results: The discriminative model performance of the lasso was optimistic. There was suboptimal calibration due to over-shrinkage. The estimate of optimism was sensitive to the choice of handling imputed data in the bootstrap resampling procedure. Resampling the completed data sets underestimates optimism, especially if, within a bootstrap step, selected individuals differ over the imputed data sets. Incorporating the MI procedure in the validation yields estimates of optimism that are closer to the true value, albeit slightly too larger., Conclusion: Performance of prognostic models constructed using the lasso technique can be optimistic as well. Results of the internal validation are sensitive to how bootstrap resampling is performed.

Background: Health-related quality of life (HRQL) is an important patient-reported outcome for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)., Aim: We developed models predicting chronic respiratory questionnaire (CRQ) dyspnoea, fatigue, emotional function, mastery and overall HRQL at 6 and 24 months using predictors easily available in primary care., Methods: We used the "least absolute shrinkage and selection operator" (lasso) method to build the models and assessed their predictive performance., Results: were displayed using nomograms., Results: For each domain-specific CRQ outcome, the corresponding score at baseline was the best predictor. Depending on the domain, these predictions could be improved by adding one to six other predictors, such as the other domain-specific CRQ scores, health status and depression score. To predict overall HRQL, fatigue and dyspnoea scores were the best predictors. Predicted and observed values were on average the same, indicating good calibration. Explained variance ranged from 0.23 to 0.58, indicating good discrimination., Conclusions: To predict COPD-specific HRQL in primary care COPD patients, previous HRQL was the best predictor in our models. Asking patients explicitly about dyspnoea, fatigue, depression and how they cope with COPD provides additional important information about future HRQL whereas FEV1 or other commonly used predictors add little to the prediction of HRQL.

Objective: This study aimed to identify those comorbidities with greatest impact on patient-reported health status in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to develop a comorbidity index that reflects their combined impact., Study Design and Setting: We included 408 Swiss and Dutch primary care patients with COPD from the International Collaborative Effort on Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease: Exacerbation Risk Index Cohorts (ICE COLD ERIC) in this cross-sectional analysis. Primary outcome was the Feeling Thermometer, a patient-reported health status instrument. We assessed the impact of comorbidities at five cohort assessment times using multiple linear regression adjusted for FEV1, retaining comorbidities with associations P ≤ 0.1. We developed an index that reflects strength of association of comorbidities with health status., Results: Depression (prevalence: 13.0%; regression coefficient: -9.00; 95% CI: -13.52, -4.48), anxiety (prevalence: 11.8%; regression coefficient: -5.53; 95% CI -10.25, -0.81), peripheral artery disease (prevalence: 6.4%; regression coefficient: -5.02; 95% CI-10.64, 0.60), cerebrovascular disease (prevalence: 8.8%; regression coefficient: -4.57; 95% CI -9.43, 0.29), and symptomatic heart disease (prevalence: 20.3%; regression coefficient: -3.81; 95% CI -7.23, -0.39) were most strongly associated with the Feeling Thermometer. These five comorbidities, weighted, compose the COMorbidities in Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (COMCOLD) index., Conclusion: The COMCOLD index reflects the combined impact of five important comorbidities from patients' perspective and complements existing comorbidity indices that predict death. It may help clinicians focus on comorbidities affecting patients' health status the most., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The relationship between physical activity, disease severity, health status and prognosis in patients with COPD has not been systematically assessed. Our aim was to identify and summarise studies assessing associations between physical activity and its determinants and/or outcomes in patients with COPD and to develop a conceptual model for physical activity in COPD., Methods: We conducted a systematic search of four databases (Medline, Embase, CINAHL and Psychinfo) prior to November 2012. Teams of two reviewers independently selected articles, extracted data and used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) to assess quality of evidence., Results: 86 studies were included: 59 were focused on determinants, 23 on outcomes and 4 on both. Hyperinflation, exercise capacity, dyspnoea, previous exacerbations, gas exchange, systemic inflammation, quality of life and self-efficacy were consistently related to physical activity, but often based on cross-sectional studies and low-quality evidence. Results from studies of pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments were inconsistent and the quality of evidence was low to very low. As outcomes, COPD exacerbations and mortality were consistently associated with low levels of physical activity based on moderate quality evidence. Physical activity was associated with other outcomes such as dyspnoea, health-related quality of life, exercise capacity and FEV1 but based on cross-sectional studies and low to very low quality evidence., Conclusions: Physical activity level in COPD is consistently associated with mortality and exacerbations, but there is poor evidence about determinants of physical activity, including the impact of treatment., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Background: Roflumilast, a phosphodiesterase 4 inhibitor, has been approved for the prevention of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. It is unclear which patients will have a favourable benefit-harm balance with roflumilast. Our aim was to quantitatively assess the benefits and harms of roflumilast (500 µg/day) compared with placebo., Methods: We used summary data released by the US Food and Drug Administration to estimate the treatment effects of roflumilast. Data from trials and observational studies were used to estimate the baseline risks for COPD exacerbations and gastrointestinal, neurological and psychiatric harms associated with roflumilast. Using simulation, we calculated the probability that roflumilast provides net benefit. We examined the impacts of different baseline risks for exacerbations and the severity of exacerbations, and varied weights (ie, relative importance) for outcomes and treated death as a competing risk in the analyses., Results: The probability that roflumilast provides net benefit approximates 0% across different age categories of men and women with varying baseline risks for exacerbations. Using different weights for outcomes did not change the probability that roflumilast provides a net benefit. Only in the sensitivity analysis restricted to the prevention of severe exacerbations was there a probability of >50% that roflumilast provides a net benefit if the baseline risk of having at least one severe exacerbation per year exceeds 22%., Conclusions: Our results suggest that roflumilast only provides a net benefit to patients at a high risk of severe exacerbations. Guideline developers should consider different recommendations for patients with COPD at different baseline risks for exacerbations., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

The aim of this article is to appraise the quality of evidence reported for important outcomes in pulmonary rehabilitation using the approach of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group. This appraisal was carried out by identifying Cochrane systematic reviews and systematic reviews that have been subsequently reported since the last Cochrane report. The focus of this appraisal was to determine the effectiveness of pulmonary rehabilitation programs versus control therapy in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. This analysis did not evaluate other aspects of the pulmonary rehabilitation intervention., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Cross-sectional studies suggest an association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D with exacerbations in patients with COPD, but longitudinal evidence from cohort studies is scarce. The aim of this study was to assess the association of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D with exacerbations and mortality in primary care patients with COPD., Methods: In the main analysis, we included 356 patients with COPD (GOLD [Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease] stages II-IV, free from exacerbations for ≥ 4 weeks) from a prospective cohort study in Dutch and Swiss primary care settings. We used negative binomial and Cox regression to assess the association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D with (centrally adjudicated) exacerbations and mortality, respectively., Results: Baseline mean ± SD serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration was 15.5 ± 8.9 ng/dL, and 274 patients (77.0%) had 25-hydroxyvitamin D deficiency (< 20 ng/dL). Compared with patients with severe 25-hydroxyvitamin D deficiency (< 10 ng/dL, n = 106 [29.8%]), patients with moderately deficient (10-19.99 ng/dL, n = 168 [47.2%]) and insufficient (20-29.99 ng/dL, n = 58 [16.3%]) concentrations had the same risk for exacerbations (incidence rate ratio, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.77-1.57] vs 1.00 [95% CI, 0.62-1.61], respectively). In patients with desirable concentrations (> 30 ng/dL, n = 24 [6.7%]), the risk was lower, although not significantly (incidence rate ratio, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.37-1.42]). In patients taking vitamin D supplements, using different cutoffs for 25-hydroxyvitamin D or competing risk models did not materially change the results. We did not find a statistically significant association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration with mortality., Conclusions: This longitudinal study in a real-world COPD population that carefully minimized misclassification of exacerbations and the influence of confounding did not show an association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D with exacerbations and mortality.

Background: Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care., Objectives: Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts., Methods: Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality., Results: Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71)., Conclusions: The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. Endothelial dysfunction may underpin this association. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the impact of airflow obstruction, systemic inflammation, oxidative stress, sympathetic activation, hypoxaemia and physical activity on endothelial function in COPD. In stable COPD patients, assessments of endothelial function by flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), cardiovascular risk (Pocock score), airflow obstruction (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)), systemic inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and interleukin-6), oxidative stress (malondialdehyde), sympathetic activation (baroreflex sensitivity), hypoxaemia (arterial oxygen tension), hypercapnia (arterial carbon dioxide tension (PaCO2)), physical activity (steps per day) and exercise capacity (6-min walking distance) were performed. Associations between FMD and potential determinants were assessed in univariate and multivariate analyses. 106 patients (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage I/II 35%, stage III 25% and stage IV 40%) were included. In multivariate analysis FEV1 was positively associated with FMD, independent of other significant FMD determinants from univariate analysis (sex, smoking, combined inhaled long-acting β-adrenergic and steroid medication, heart rate, baroreflex sensitivity and PaCO2) and adjusted for potential confounders (cardiovascular risk and age). In addition, the FMD and FEV1 association was modified by physical activity. The findings of this study demonstrate that the severity of airflow obstruction is a significant determinant of endothelial function in patients with COPD. A high level of physical activity seems to have a favourable effect on this association.

Exercise tests are important to characterise chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients and predict their prognosis, but are often not available outside of rehabilitation or research settings. Our aim was to assess the predictive performance of the sit-to-stand and handgrip strength tests. The prospective cohort study in Dutch and Swiss primary care settings included a broad spectrum of patients (n=409) with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stages II to IV. To assess the association of the tests with outcomes, we used Cox proportional hazards (mortality), negative binomial (centrally adjudicated exacerbations) and mixed linear regression models (longitudinal health-related quality of life) while adjusting for age, sex and severity of disease. The sit-to-stand test was strongly (adjusted hazard ratio per five more repetitions of 0.58, 95% CI 0.40-0.85; p=0.004) and the handgrip strength test moderately strongly (0.84, 95% CI 0.72-1.00; p=0.04) associated with mortality. Both tests were also significantly associated with health-related quality of life but not with exacerbations. The sit-to-stand test alone was a stronger predictor of 2-year mortality (area under curve 0.78) than body mass index (0.52), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (0.61), dyspnoea (0.63) and handgrip strength (0.62). The sit-to-stand test may close an important gap in the evaluation of exercise capacity and prognosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients across practice settings.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) coexists with co-morbidities. While co-morbidity has been associated with poorer health status, it is unclear which conditions have the greatest impact on self-rated health. We sought to determine which, and how much, specific co-morbid conditions impact on self-rated health in current and former smokers with self-reported COPD. Using the 2001-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey we characterized the association between thirteen co-morbidities and health status among individuals self-reporting COPD. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were generated using ordinal logistic regression. Additionally we evaluated the impact of increasing number of co-morbidities with self-rated health. Eight illnesses had significant associations with worse self-rated health, however after mutually adjusting for these conditions, congestive heart failure (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.69-5.58), arthritis (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.13-2.52), diabetes (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.01-2.64), and incontinence/prostate disease (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.01-2.62) remained independent predictors of self-rated health. Each increase in co-morbidities was associated with a 43% higher chance of worse self-rated health (95% CI 1.27-1.62). Individuals with COPD have a substantial burden of co-morbidity, which is associated with worse self-rated health. CHF, arthritis, diabetes and incontinence/prostate disease have the most impact on self-rated health. Targeting these co-morbidities in COPD may result in improved self-rated health.

Background: Many patients with an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are treated with antibiotics. However, the value of antibiotics remains uncertain as systematic reviews and clinical trials have shown conflicting results., Objectives: To assess the effects of antibiotics in the management of acute COPD exacerbations on treatment failure as observed between seven days and one month after treatment initiation (primary outcome) and on other patient-important outcomes (mortality, adverse events, length of hospital stay)., Search Methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE and other electronically available databases up to September 2012., Selection Criteria: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in people with acute COPD exacerbations comparing antibiotic therapy and placebo with a follow-up of at least seven days., Data Collection and Analysis: Two review authors independently screened references and extracted data from trial reports. We kept the three groups of outpatients, inpatients and patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) separate for benefit outcomes and mortality because we considered them to be clinically too different to be summarised in one group. We considered outpatients to have a mild to moderate exacerbation, inpatients to have a severe exacerbation and ICU patients to have a very severe exacerbation. Where outcomes or study details were not reported we requested missing data from the authors of the primary studies. We calculated pooled risk ratios (RR) for treatment failure, Peto odds ratios (OR) for rare events (mortality and adverse events) and weighted mean differences (MD) for continuous outcomes using fixed-effect models. We used GRADE to assess the quality of the evidence., Main Results: Sixteen trials with 2068 participants were included. In outpatients (mild to moderate exacerbations), there was evidence of low quality that antibiotics did statistically significantly reduce the risk for treatment failure between seven days and one month after treatment initiation (RR 0.75; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.94; I(2) = 35%) but they did not significantly reduce the risk when the meta-analysis was restricted to currently available drugs (RR 0.80; 95% CI 0.63 to 1.01; I(2) = 33%). Evidence of high quality showed that antibiotics statistically significantly reduced the risk of treatment failure in inpatients with severe exacerbations (ICU not included) (RR 0.77; 95% CI 0.65 to 0.91; I(2) = 47%) regardless of whether restricted to current drugs. The only trial with 93 patients admitted to the ICU showed a large and statistically significant effect on treatment failure (RR 0.19; 95% CI 0.08 to 0.45; high-quality evidence).Evidence of low-quality from four trials in inpatients showed no effect of antibiotics on mortality (Peto OR 1.02; 95% CI 0.37 to 2.79). High-quality evidence from one trial showed a statistically significant effect on mortality in ICU patients (Peto OR 0.21; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.72). Length of hospital stay (in days) was similar in the antibiotics and placebo groups except for the ICU study where antibiotics statistically significantly reduced length of hospital stay (mean difference -9.60 days; 95% CI -12.84 to -6.36 days). One trial showed no effect of antibiotics on re-exacerbations between two and six weeks after treatment initiation. Only one trial (N = 35) reported health-related quality of life but did not show a statistically significant difference between the treatment and control group.Evidence of moderate quality showed that the overall incidence of adverse events was higher in the antibiotics groups (Peto OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.03 to 2.27). Patients treated with antibiotics experienced statistically significantly more diarrhoea based on three trials (Peto OR 2.62; 95% CI 1.11 to 6.17; high-quality evidence)., Authors' Conclusions: Antibiotics for COPD exacerbations showed large and consistent beneficial effects across outcomes of patients admitted to an ICU. However, for outpatients and inpatients the results were inconsistent. The risk for treatment failure was significantly reduced in both inpatients and outpatients when all trials (1957 to 2012) were included but not when the analysis for outpatients was restricted to currently used antibiotics. Also, antibiotics had no statistically significant effect on mortality and length of hospital stay in inpatients and almost no data on patient-reported outcomes exist. These inconsistent effects call for research into clinical signs and biomarkers that help identify patients who benefit from antibiotics and patients who experience no effect, and in whom downsides of antibiotics (side effects, costs and multi-resistance) could be avoided.