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How do governments ensure public compliance with protective policies that restrict individual liberties during a crisis? In this article, the British public's reaction to mask mandates during the Covid-19 pandemic is examined. We argue that providing information about health risks makes people more willing to comply and that the effectiveness of the information depends on the source. This argument is tested with the help of aggregate public opinion and individual-level experimental data collected in the UK in 2020 and we find that the British public adapted its willingness to wear a mask rapidly and in line with government regulation. Moreover, results from a survey experiment show that simply providing information about risk is sufficient to elevate people's willingness to wear masks. Interestingly, there is no clear partisan divide in the willingness to comply, suggesting that government messages about risk and responsibility encourage individuals to make sacrifices in times of crisis regardless of which party they support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are the effects on public support for the European Union (EU) when a member state exits? We examine this question in the context of Britain's momentous decision to leave the EU. Combining analyses of the European Election Study 2019 and a unique survey-embedded experiment conducted in all member states, we analyse the effect of Brexit on support for membership among citizens in the EU-27. The experimental evidence shows that while information about the negative economic consequences of Brexit had no significant effect, positive information about Britain's sovereignty significantly increased optimism about leaving the EU. Our findings suggest that Brexit acts as a benchmark for citizens' evaluations of EU membership across EU-27, and that it may not continue to act as a deterrent in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2020, the United Kingdom became the first member state to leave the European Union (EU). This followed a referendum on membership in 2016. Public opinion about EU membership has been regularly measured since the 1970s in Britain. In this Poll Trends article, we document the changes in sentiment towards the EU in a variety of different ways. We report on attitudes towards the cost and benefits; national and European identities; support for continued membership of the EU; specific policy preferences towards Britain's involvement with the EU; vote intention in a referendum on membership pre- and post- the 2016 referendum; and the prevalence of new political identities created by the referendum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unparalleled global crisis. Yet, despite the grave adversity faced by citizens, incumbents around the world experienced a boost in popularity during the onset of the outbreak. In this study, we examine how the response to the COVID-19 outbreak in one country affected incumbent support in other countries. Specifically, we leverage the fact that the first country-wide lockdown on European soil, in Italy on 9 March 2020, happened during the fieldwork of surveys conducted in four other European countries, France, Germany, Poland and Spain. This allows us to examine how an event abroad that alerted citizens to an imminent crisis—prior to a similar domestic government response—influenced incumbent support. Our results indicate a crisis signal effect of Italy's COVID-19 lockdown, as support for the incumbent increased domestically in other European countries after the lockdown. Importantly, these findings suggest that incumbents can benefit from a crisis unfolding in other countries, even when their own performance in response to the same crisis is not yet fully clear. They illustrate the importance of developments abroad for incumbent approval and the difficulty facing citizens seeking to disentangle performance signals from exogenous shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is the contemporary global order under threat? This contribution weighs the case for and against the notion that we are witnessing an existential challenge to the contemporary global order. We show that there are grounds for optimism with respect to the endurance of the first two ordering principles of the contemporary global order: a state-led global order and economic liberalism, because states remain key actors in the current world order and because overall support for economic liberalism remains strong. However, we see greater challenges to the procedural principle of inclusive, rule-based multilateralism, such as unilateral disintegration challenges and rising popular scepticism about international institutions that provide considerable reasons to worry about the future of the global order. Yet, given that the global order has proven robust time and again in the past, we see some reasons for cautious optimism overall, despite considerable risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision-making in the Council of the European Union appears highly consensual at the voting stage. However, we focus on Council deliberations, where we find higher levels of contestation. What drives government opposition in the Council? Using a novel approach of studying the Council through video footage of its public deliberations (DICEU – Debates in the Council of the European Union), we demonstrate that contestation between governments is, at least in part, driven by their responsiveness to domestic public opinion. Analysing deliberations on legislative packages in the Economic and Financial Affairs Council between 2010 and 2015, we show that governments are responsive to public opinion when setting out their policy positions, but primarily when the policy issues are salient domestically. Our study thus contributes to our understanding of government responsiveness in the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are governments responsive to public preferences when legislating in international organizations? This article demonstrates that governments respond to domestic public opinion even when acting at the international level. Specifically, we examine conflict in the European Union’s primary legislative body, the Council of the European Union (EU). We argue that domestic electoral incentives compel governments to react to public opinion. Analyzing a unique data set on all legislative decisions adopted in the Council since 1999, we show that governments are more likely to oppose legislative proposals that extend the level and scope of EU authority when their domestic electorates are skeptical about the EU. We also find that governments are more responsive when the issue of European integration is salient in domestic party politics. Our findings demonstrate that governments can use the international stage to signal their responsiveness to public concerns and that such signals resonate in the domestic political debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public opinion is increasingly at the heart of both political and scholarly debates on European integration. This article reviews the large literature on public support for, and opposition to, European integration, focusing on conceptualization, causes, and consequences: What is public support for European integration? How can we explain variation in support and Euroskepticism? What are the consequences of public support for elections and policy making in the European Union? The review reveals that although a growing literature has sought to explain individual support for European integration, more work is needed to understand the ways in which opinions are shaped by their national context and how increasing public contestation of the European Union poses a challenge to, and an opportunity for, the future of the integration project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proponents of the European project often portray further enlargement of the European Union as a complement to the process of building an ever closer union. The eurozone crisis, however, has highlighted the risks associated with pursuing deeper integration in a diverse union and reignited the debate on differentiated integration. This contribution examines how public attitudes towards the processes of deepening and broadening are related and asks whether European citizens see them as complementary or conflicting. Using multilevel analysis of Eurobarometer data, the contribution examines the factors – individual and contextual – that shape attitudes towards enlargement and deeper political integration across the 27 member states. The findings suggest that the ‘winners’ of integration – high-skilled individuals in core eurozone countries – are most likely to support deepening, but oppose further enlargement out of fear that an ever wider union might be costly. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Turkey's bid to join the European Union (EU) is more contentious than any previous enlargement of the EU. With the prospect of a predominantly Muslim country joining the Union, religious differences are often argued to be at the heart of public opposition to Turkish membership, whereas economic reasoning seems to dominate arguments in favour. Yet, public opinion on this issue is also highly volatile. This raises the question of the extent to which elite framing of the debate on Turkish accession can shape public opinion. Using a survey-embedded experimental study, we examine the differences in support between people exposed to - positive and negative - cultural and economic arguments. Our results show that the economic frames are persuasive across the board, whereas cultural (religious) frames are strongly conditioned by individual predispositions on religious diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on public support for the euro. Existing studies of the two euro referendums in Denmark and Sweden have explained the outcomes primarily in terms of static factors, thereby ignoring the fact that support fluctuates over time. This article provides an analysis of the short-term dynamics in public support for the euro in the period leading up to the referendums. We argue that exchange rate fluctuations matter, because people attach symbolic value to their national currency and are less likely to surrender a strong currency. They are also less willing to accept the euro when it is seen as weak vis-à-vis other world currencies. Our casestudy and time-series analyses of the two euro campaigns corroborate these propositions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments in democratic systems are expected to respond to the issue preferences of citizens. Yet we have a limited understanding of the factors that cause levels of responsiveness to vary across time and between countries. In this article, the authors suggest that political contestation is the primary mechanism driving policy responsiveness and that this, in turn, is mediated by political institutions and government popularity. To test this proposition, the authors analyze the responsiveness of executive policy promises (speeches) and policy actions (public expenditure) in Britain, Denmark, and the United States in the period from 1970 to 2005. These time-series analyses show that higher levels of political contestation are associated with more responsive executives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]