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The COVID-19 pandemic and public health "lockdown" responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non-COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non-COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children's health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities.

Introduction: Financing of malaria control for displaced populations is limited in scope and duration, making cost-effectiveness analyses relevant but difficult. This study analyses cost-effectiveness of adding prevention through targeted indoor residual spraying (IRS) to case management in Afghan refugee settlements in Pakistan during a prolonged malaria epidemic. Methods/Findings: An intervention study design was selected, taking a societal perspective. Provider and household costs of vector control and case management were collected from provider records and community survey. Health outcomes (e.g. cases and DALYs averted) were derived and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for cases prevented and DALYs averted calculated. Population, treatment cost, women’s time, days of productivity lost, case fatality rate, cases prevented, and DALY assumptions were tested in sensitivity analysis. Malaria incidence peaked at 44/1,000 population in year 2, declining to 14/1,000 in year 5. In total, 370,000 malaria cases, 80% vivax, were diagnosed and treated and an estimated 67,988 vivax cases and 18,578 falciparum and mixed cases prevented. Mean annual programme cost per capita was US$0.56. The additional cost of including IRS over five years per case prevented was US$39; US$50 for vivax (US$43 in years 1–3, US$80 in years 4–5) and US$182 for falciparum (US$139 in years 1–3 and US$680 in years 4–5). Per DALY averted this was US$266 (US$220 in years 1–3 and US$486 in years 4–5) and thus ‘highly cost-effective’ or cost-effective using WHO and comparison thresholds. Conclusions: Adding IRS was cost-effective in this moderate endemicity, low mortality setting. It was more cost-effective when transmission was highest, becoming less so as transmission reduced. Because vivax was three times more common than falciparum and the case fatality rate was low, cost-effectiveness estimations for cases prevented appear reliable and more definitive for vivax malaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ghana has developed two main community-based strategies that aim to increase access to quality treatment for malaria, diarrhoea and suspected pneumonia: the integrated community case management (iCCM) and the community-based health planning and services (CHPS). The aim of the study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of these strategies under programme conditions. Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted. Appropriate diagnosis and treatment given was the effectiveness measure used. Appropriate diagnosis and treatment data was obtained from a household survey conducted 2 and 8 years after implementation of iCCM in the Volta and Northern Regions of Ghana, respectively. The study population was carers of children under-5 years who had fever, diarrhoea and/or cough in the last 2 weeks prior to the interview. Costs data was obtained mainly from the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP), the Ministry of Health, CHPS compounds and from a household survey. Results: Appropriate diagnosis and treatment of malaria, diarrhoea and suspected pneumonia was more costeffective under the iCCM than under CHPS in the Volta Region, even after adjusting for different discount rates, facility costs and iCCM and CHPS utilization, but not when iCCM appropriate treatment was reduced by 50%. Due to low numbers of carers visiting a CBA in the Northern Region it was not possible to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis in this region. However, the cost analysis showed that iCCM in the Northern Region had higher cost per malaria, diarrhoea and suspected pneumonia case diagnosed and treated when compared to the Volta Region and to the CHPS strategy in the Northern Region. Conclusions: Integrated community case management was more cost-effective than CHPS for the treatment of malaria, diarrhoea and suspected pneumonia when utilized by carers of children under-5 years in the Volta Region. A revision of the iCCM strategy in the Northern Region is needed to improve its cost-effectiveness. Long-term financing strategies should be explored including potential inclusion in the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) benefit package. An acceptability study of including iCCM in the NHIS should be conducted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Public health facilities are usually the first to receive interventions compared to private facilities, yet majority of health seeking care is first done with the latter. This study compared the capacity to manage acute febrile illnesses in children below 5 years in private vs public health facilities in order to design interventions to improve quality of care. Methods: A survey was conducted within 57 geographical areas (parishes), from August to October 2014 in Mukono district, central Uganda. The survey comprised both facility and health worker assessment. Data were collected on drug stocks, availability of treatment guidelines, diagnostic equipment, and knowledge in management of malaria, pneumonia and diarrhoea, using a structured questionnaire. Results: A total of 53 public and 241 private health facilities participated in the study. While similar proportions of private and public health facilities stocked Coartem, the first-line anti-malarial drug, (98 vs 95%, p = 0.22), significantly more private than public health facilities stocked quinine (85 vs 53%, p < 0.01). Stocks of obsolete anti-malarial drugs, such as chloroquine, were reported in few public and private facilities (3.7 vs 12.5%, p = 0.06). Stocks of antibiotics-amoxycillin and gentamycin were similar in both sectors (≥90% for amoxicillin; ≥50 for gentamycin). Training in malaria was reported by 65% of public health facilities vs 56% in the private sector, p = 0.25), while, only 21% in the public facility and 12% in the private facilities, p = 0.11, reported receiving training in pneumonia. Only 55% of public facilities had microscopes. Malaria treatment guidelines were significantly lacking in the private sector, p = 0.01. Knowledge about first-line management of uncomplicated malaria, pneumonia and diarrhoea was significantly better in the public facilities compared to the private ones, though still sub-optimal. Conclusion: Deficiencies of equipment, supplies and training exist even in public health facilities. In order to significantly improve the capacity to handle acute febrile illness among children under five, training in proper case management, availability of supplies and diagnostics need to be addressed in both sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Uganda, referral of sick children seeking care at public health facilities is poor and widely reported. However, studies focusing on the private health sector are scanty. The main objective of this study was to assess referral practices for sick children seeking care at private health facilities in order to explore ways of improving treatment and referral of sick children in this sector. Methods: A survey was conducted from August to October 2014 in Mukono district, central Uganda. Data was collected using a structured questionnaire supplemented by Focus Group Discussions and Key Informant interviews with private providers and community members. Results: A total of 241 private health facilities were surveyed; 170 (70.5%) were registered drug shops, 59 (24.5%) private clinics and 12 (5.0%) pharmacies. Overall, 104/241 (43.2%) of the private health facilities reported that they had referred sick children to higher levels of care in the two weeks prior to the survey. The main constraints to follow referral advice as perceived by caretakers were: not appreciating the importance of referral, gender-related decision-making and negotiations at household level, poor quality of care at referral facilities, inadequate finances at household level; while the perception that referral leads to loss of prestige and profit was a major constraint to private providers. Conclusion: In conclusion, the results show that referral of sick children at private health facilities faces many challenges at provider, caretaker, household and community levels. Thus, interventions to address constraints to referral of sick children are urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria continues to be a serious public health problem particularly in Africa. Many people infected with malaria do not access effective treatment due to high price. At the same time many individuals receiving malaria drugs do not suffer from malaria because of the common practice of presumptive diagnosis. A global subsidy on artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has recently been suggested to increase access to the most effective malaria treatment. Methods: Following the recommendation by World Health Organization that parasitological testing should be performed before treatment and ACT prescribed to confirmed cases only, it is investigated in this paper if a subsidy on malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) should be incorporated. A model is developed consisting of a representative individual with fever suspected to be malaria, seeking care at a specialized drug shop where RDTs, ACT medicines, and cheap, less effective anti-malarials are sold. Assuming that the individual has certain beliefs of the accuracy of the RDT and the probability that the fever is malaria, the model predicts the diagnosis-treatment behaviour of the individual. Subsidies on RDTs and ACT are introduced to incentivize appropriate behaviour: choose an RDT before treatment and purchase ACT only if the test is positive. Results: Solving the model numerically suggests that a combined subsidy on both RDT and ACT is cost minimizing and improves diagnosis-treatment behaviour of individuals. For certain beliefs, such as low trust in RDT accuracy and strong belief that a fever is malaria, subsidization is not sufficient to incentivize appropriate behaviour. Conclusions: A combined subsidy on both RDT and ACT rather than a single subsidy is likely required to improve diagnosis-treatment behaviour among individuals seeking care for malaria in the private sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria is a major public health problem in Uganda and the current policy recommends introduction of rapid diagnostic tests for malaria (RDTs) to facilitate effective case management. However, provision of RDTs in drug shops potentially raises a new set of issues, such as adherence to RDTs results, management of severe illnesses, referral of patients, and relationship with caretakers. The main objective of the study was to examine the impact of introducing RDTs in registered drug shops in Uganda and document lessons and policy implications for future scale-up of malaria control in the private health sector. Methods: A cluster-randomized trial introducing RDTs into registered drug shops was implemented in central Uganda from October 2010 to July 2012. An evaluation was undertaken to assess the impact and the processes involved with the introduction of RDTs into drug shops, the lessons learned and policy implications. Results: Introducing RDTs into drug shops was feasible. To scale-up this intervention however, drug shop practices need to be regulated since the registration process was not clear, supervision was inadequate and record keeping was poor. Although initially it was anticipated that introducing a new practice of record keeping would be cumbersome, but at evaluation this was not found to be a constraint. This presents an important lesson for introducing health management information system into drug shops. Involving stakeholders, especially the district health team, in the design was important for ownership and sustainability. The involvement of village health teams in community sensi-tization to the new malaria treatment and diagnosis policy was a success and this strategy is recommended for future interventions. Conclusion: Introducing RDTs into drug shops was feasible and it increased appropriate treatment of malaria with artemisinin-based combination therapy. It is anticipated that the lessons presented will help better implementation of similar interventions in the private sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Improving access to parasitological diagnosis of malaria is a central strategy for control and elimination of the disease. Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are relatively easy to perform and could be used in primary level clinics to increase coverage of diagnostics and improve treatment of malaria. Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken of RDT-based diagnosis in public health sector facilities in Afghanistan comparing the societal and health sector costs of RDTs versus microscopy and RDTs versus clinical diagnosis in low and moderate transmission areas. The effect measure was 'appropriate treatment for malaria' defined using a reference diagnosis. Effects were obtained from a recent trial of RDTs in 22 public health centres with cost data collected directly from health centres and from patients enrolled in the trial. Decision models were used to compare the cost of RDT diagnosis versus the current diagnostic method in use at the clinic per appropriately treated case (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER). Results: RDT diagnosis of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in patients with uncomplicated febrile illness had higher effectiveness and lower cost compared to microscopy and was cost-effective across the moderate and low transmission settings. RDTs remained cost-effective when microscopy was used for other clinical purposes. In the low transmission setting, RDTs were much more effective than clinical diagnosis (65.2% (212/325) vs 12.5% (40/321)) but at an additional cost (ICER) of US$4.5 per appropriately treated patient including a health sector cost (ICER) of US$2.5 and household cost of US$2.0. Sensitivity analysis, which varied drug costs, indicated that RDTs would remain cost-effective if artemisinin combination therapy was used for treating both P. vivax and P. falciparum. Cost-effectiveness of microscopy relative to RDT is further reduced if the former is used exclusively for malaria diagnosis. In the health service setting of Afghanistan, RDTs are a cost-effective intervention compared to microscopy. Conclusions: RDTs remain cost-effective across a range of drug costs and if microscopy is used for a range of diagnostic services. RDTs have significant advantages over clinical diagnosis with minor increases in the cost of service provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Background: This study aimed at providing information for priority setting in the health care sector of Zimbabwe as well as assessing the efficiency of resource use. A general approach proposed by the World Bank involving the estimation of the burden of disease measured in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and calculation of cost-effectiveness ratios for a large number of health interventions was followed. Methods: Costs per DALY for a total of 65 health interventions were estimated. Costing data were collected through visits to health centres, hospitals and vertical programmes where a combination of step-down and micro-costing was applied. Effectiveness of health interventions was estimated based on published information on the efficacy adjusted for factors such as coverage and compliance. Results: Very cost-effective interventions were available for the major health problems. Using estimates of the burden of disease, the present paper developed packages of health interventions using the estimated cost-effectiveness ratios. These packages could avert a quarter of the burden of disease at total costs corresponding to one tenth of the public health budget in the financial year 1997/98. In general, the analyses suggested that there was substantial potential for improving the efficiency of resource use in the public health care sector. Discussion: The proposed World Bank approach applied to Zimbabwe was extremely data demanding and required extensive data collection in the field and substantial human resources. The most important limitation of the study was the scarcity of evidence on effectiveness of health interventions so that a range of important health interventions could not be included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. This and other limitations could in principle be overcome if more research resources were available. Conclusion: The present study showed that it was feasible to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses for a large number of health interventions in a developing country like Zimbabwe using a consistent methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Quality of life weights based on valuations of health states are often used in cost utility analysis and population health measures. This paper reports on an attempt to develop quality of life weights within the Zimbabwe context. Methods: 2,384 residents in randomly selected small residential plots of land in a high-density suburb of Harare valued descriptors of 38 health states based on different combinations of the five domains of the EQ-5D (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain or discomfort and anxiety or depression). The English version of the EQ-5D was used. The time trade-off method was used to determine the values, and 19,020 individual preferences for health states were analysed. A residual maximum likelihood linear mixed model was used to estimate a function for predicting the values of all possible combinations of levels on the five domains. The model was fit to a random subset of two-thirds of the observations, with the remaining observations reserved for analysis of predictive validity. The results were compared to a similar study undertaken in the United Kingdom. Results: A credible model was developed to predict the values of states that were not valued directly. In the subset of observations reserved for validation, the mean absolute difference between predicted and observed values was 0.045. All domains of the EQ-5D were found to contribute significantly to the model, both at the moderate and severe levels. Severe pain was found to have the largest negative coefficient, followed by the inability to wash and dress oneself. Conclusion: Despite a generally lower education level than their European counterparts, urban Zimbabweans appear to value health states in a consistent manner, and the determination of a global method of establishing quality of life weights may be feasible and valid. However, as the relative weightings of the different domains, although correlated, differed from the standard set of weights recommended by the EuroQol Group, the locally determined coefficients should be used within the Zimbabwean context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]