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Evidence suggests that sovereign debt markets are not featured by perfect competition but power dynamics are a key determinant of market outcomes such as ex-post returns on sovereign bonds. In such environment, coordination within each side of the market matters. With the purpose of influencing the international debt architecture, private creditors have historically been fairly coordinated and their interests more aligned ex-ante. Sovereign debtors, however, have not. The power asymmetry that that entails has equity and efficiency implications, both ex-ante and ex-post. This paper analyzes asymmetries in collective action of each side of the sovereign debt market and the mechanisms through which it affects market outcomes. It also analyses the Cartagena Group's experience in the 1980s as a prominent historical case of greater borrower coordination and identifies mechanisms through which greater debtor coordination could be fostered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a stock-flow-consistent model in which growth is led by exports, government consumption, and consumption out of interest. It considers domestic and external debt dynamics and gross capital flows. The balance of payments constraint serves as a ceiling but not a floor for growth. Countries may choose to not fully use their external space to decrease public debts or accumulate international reserves. The model is applied to a comparative dynamics exercise to explore how a hike in foreign interest rates may impact growth and income distribution in a developing country under different policy responses. The shock forces the country to apply at least one contractionary macroeconomic policy or lose its reserves. Contractionary monetary policy may be the only tool to avoid external disequilibrium after the shock for countries with open capital accounts. Financial flows may impose trade-offs between short and long run policy objectives. Accumulated international reserves helps maintain expansionary policies and higher average growth rates after external shocks by providing liquidity in foreign currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and national debt are like two faces of the same coin. The national debt is the major source of growth of GDP. GDP is completely paralyzed in the absence of national debt. The national debt in turn is hugely dependent on foreign funding. The GDP is growing faster as a result of these investments. It is believed that the external debt will never be entirely settled. It takes some time for the agreement to mature before external investments become available in response to demand. The primary topic of this study is the delay in foreign investment’s real arrival and how it affects the dynamics of GDP and national debt. We investigate this impact with a delay parameter τ. The stability analysis is done on the system and the nonzero equilibrium is computed. For a crucial delay parameter value, Hopf bifurcation is seen. The research plays a significant role in economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to identify the determinants of sovereign debt default for a panel of twenty developing nations over the period 1970 to 2019, specifically focusing on the influence of defence/military spending. This study's findings indicate that increased military spending has generally reduced default risk in the examined countries, but that excessive military spending, past a certain threshold, can have strong detrimental impacts on the probability of sovereign debt default. Additionally, the findings show that the country's levels of democracy and foreign currency reserves level are both negatively linked to debt default risk, whereas default history, level of external debt, and short-term debt to reserves ratio are all significantly positively linked to higher default risk. The study suggests that certain countries may wish to evaluate their level of military spending to ensure it is not too high. Alternatively, countries may lower their accrual of external debt from military spending by focusing on domestic arms production, mitigating their risk that way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the role of international reserves and sovereign debt in the determination and international transmission of interest rates. We develop a model that describes the money market equilibrium with capital account openness. It predicts that higher levels of international reserves lead to lower interest rates whereas the effect of higher government debt is ambiguous. We then test empirically these predictions on a panel of 128 countries over 1985–2019. We find that: (i) the transmission of U.S. interest rates to domestic interest rates is stronger in emerging market economies (EMEs) than in advanced economies (AEs) for short‐term interest rates (STIR), and vice versa for long‐term interest rates (LTIR); (ii) international reserves help counteract the transmission of the U.S. policy rate on STIR in EMEs; (iii) a higher sovereign debt level is associated with lower interest rates in EMEs (liquidity effect), but higher interest rates in developing economies (risk premium effect). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The debt brake was introduced to limit electoral spending excesses and ensure (debt) sustainability. Although the debt ratio has been reduced, this has come at the cost of an investment backlog and persistent current account surpluses. The reason for this is the household savings surplus that cannot be utilised domestically. If these savings exceed the capital requirements of companies, either government debt or foreign debt inevitably increases. Consequently, the reduction in the debt ratio in recent years has led to higher foreign debt. In light of low interest rates, higher investments will benefit future generations more than lower debt levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the factors that contribute to the external debt growth in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the error correction model (ECM) to establish the short-run and long-run relationships between the dependent variable (external debt) and the independent variables (debt service, exchange rate, gross domestic product, government expenditure, import and trade openness), using a time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019. Findings: The results indicate that debt service, GDP, government expenditure and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while import and exchange rates have a negative relationship with external debt in the long run. In the short run, debt service, import, exchange rate and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while GDP has a negative relationship with external debt. Practical implications: The study found that variables such as government expenditure, debt service and import contribute significantly to the nation's external debt stock. These findings suggest that policymakers should focus on prioritising and cutting down expenditure in their quest to curtail the debt menace facing the nation. Since existing debt service has the tendency of influencing debt stock, it is recommended that government should reduce borrowing in order avoid debt trap. Home-grown policies to reduce imports must also be encouraged. As these drivers of external debt are tackled head-on, Ghana can be rightly positioned to record lower levels of public debt and subsequently reap the benefits of economic growth. Originality/value: The study adds to the public debt literature, specifically addressing the idiosyncratic determinants of external debt within the Ghanaian context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a sample of 124 developing countries over the period 1980–2016, we find that default increases inequality. This result, which passes a series of robustness tests, is sensitive to the size of the debt in default, the duration of the default episode, the institutional quality, the level of development, and the type of default (on external or domestic debt) and may persist until 5 years after the end of the default episode. Besides, the declines in redistributive capacity characterized by lower taxes and subsidies and social spending are identified as channels through which default increases inequality in default countries vis-à-vis nondefault countries. Finally, additional results show that default also raises wealth inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rise of bonded private debt over the past 15 years, there is an increased dependency on private creditors for sovereign nations that borrow to finance their government activities. The power of private creditors gained through increased sovereign debt burdens is affecting the internal political dynamics of these borrower countries, especially in the Global South, including Latin America. A larger external debt burden creates internal political conflict around the distribution of benefits, so debt is intimately linked with politics. Standard economics literature ignores this problem by hypothesizing markets based on perfect competition. We outline a set of hypotheses regarding the relationship between creditors' political preferences in sovereign debt markets that feature "power rents," when relatively powerful foreign investors can obtain significantly higher returns by lending to smaller, weaker nations. Bringing power asymmetries into the debt discussion, we also present a research agenda for economics and political science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite past debt relief initiatives, the external debt of Africa is rising again, and it has some new worrying features: diminishing concessionality and a rising private creditor. Sub-Saharan African countries devote a significant portion of their fiscal resources to service the debt, and this prevents them from increasing development expenditures (generally imports of strategic goods that can't be produced domestically). By adding a human development factor to the Geometry of Debt Sustainability model (GDS) (Vaggi and Prizzon 2014) and following the analytical framework of Pasinetti (1998), we assess how external debt sustainability changes when countries increase the foreign currency purchasing of health and education goods and services. Not only these types of human development expenditures are central to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but they have become even more important due to impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on many low income countries (LICs). We evaluate external debt sustainability in two African contexts: Kenya and a composite country, called Ubuntu, which is representative of Sub-Saharan Africa average indebtedness conditions. The results confirm the existence of a trade-off between debt service and human development expenditures. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, the Sub-Saharan African countries were on unsustainable debt trajectories as the debt-to-GDP ratios would stabilize only at extremely high values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public debt and its development are key questions of public sector economics and fiscal policy. This paper uses the Synthetic Control Method to study how different large-scale steps of European integration and the establishment of the EU fiscal framework have affected government debt in EU Member States. The results point to a notable debt-restricting effect of EU membership and the introduction of the Stability and Growth Pact for a large majority of the studied country groupings as well as for individual countries. Outside of a few individual countries, the actual government debt levels are substantially lower than in the synthetic alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The public sectors in many developing countries receive capital inflows from advanced countries. Notably, we show that higher levels of foreign borrowing play an important role in promoting economic activity in developing countries by relieving crowding out problems from local sovereign debt. Moreover, in comparison to previous contributions, we also show how participation affects economic activity in advanced countries. Using a micro‐founded two‐country model of money and banking, we show that there are crowding‐out effects in high income economies when the advanced country funds official foreign debt. Moreover, we find that there are significant implications for the effects of monetary policy when banks in the developed world hold more official foreign debt. In addition, the typical destructive effects of money growth in developing countries are weaker in the presence of higher levels of international borrowing. By comparison, the effects of monetary stimulus in the advanced country become more pronounced as banks hold more foreign bonds. Our analysis concludes by looking at optimal debt policy. Interestingly, the results suggest that developing countries should limit their reliance on foreign capital inflows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populism is principally a political phenomenon; yet, the economic implications of populist rule can be substantial, as underlined by the Polish and Hungarian cases. By operationalizing the ideational definition of populism, the article sheds light on the economic consequences of populist governance in three major domains: (1) macroeconomic management, (2) welfare policies, and (3) market regulation. The article demonstrates that while—at least until the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic—Hungary and Poland refrained from engaging in irresponsible macroeconomic policies such as the accumulation of public debt or external debt (typical signs of classical "economic populism"), the governments of the two countries embarked on widescale income and wealth redistribution in their respective economies. Nevertheless, these populist governments targeted different groups of people in their redistributive policies: Hungary adopted a largely selective and exclusive social policy targeting the middle class and the well off, while Poland endorsed a more inclusive strategy that benefited the poor as well. Furthermore, the two countries deliberately tilted the playing field toward their protégés: Hungary preferred the preservation of private property; whereas, Poland explicitly increased the share and role of state-owned enterprises in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

External public debt exacerbation and macroeconomic destabilization in Laos are attributed to the subsequent complications of excessive foreign capital investments in the mining, power, and transport infrastructure sectors during the economic boom of the 2010s. This study examines the Lao economy from three perspectives: real sector growth, the characteristics of external fundraising, and the domestic financial system. Our findings suggest that the external debt issue still appears to be under control, real sector growth is expected to be strong in the medium term, and the less‐developed financial system has not realized its potential for fiscal financing and macroeconomic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Religación: Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades is the property of Religacion: Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

According to the IMF, the current public debt makes up nearly 40 percent of the global debt, marking the highest share since the mid-1960s. Despite the vast research on alarming levels of sovereign default, the literature remains inconclusive. This paper investigates macroeconomic, financial, and political determinants of IMF credit use in the post-2010 era. The main contribution of our study lies in its temporal analysis as we investigate how the robustness of different factors has evolved. By utilizing an extensive dataset on 216 countries over the period of 2010–2021 and employing a variant of the Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) method, our study reveals that fluctuations in the IMF credit to external debt ratio can be attributed to changes in the total reserves to external debt ratio, where this relationship is statistically significant and reliable. However, high political risks seem to no longer affect the IMF's decision, post 2010. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that excluding countries with low debt arrears strengthens the results' robustness. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the complexities surrounding IMF credit use in the contemporary global economic scene and offer new standpoints on the Fund's lending choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An inquiry into the impact of external and domestic borrowings is considered timely for Nigeria, given the growing public debt profile amid deteriorating human capital development. Using data from 1990 to 2021, the study estimates the effects of domestic and external debts on Nigeria's human capital development. The study employed the fully modified ordinary least squares and canonical cointegration regression as the main estimation technique and the robustness check, respectively. The study discovered that domestic and external debt, economic growth and debt servicing exert positive and significant influence on human capital development in Nigeria while environmental pollution has an inverse and significant impact on human capital development in Nigeria. Premised on the outcomes, policy suggestions aimed at enhancing human capital development in Nigeria have been put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the sustainability of the US public debt and the potential consequences of losing the country's "exorbitant privilege" status as a global safe asset and reserve currency supplier. The authors use a quantitative model to analyze the impact of this loss on the US debt capacity. Their findings suggest that without this privilege, the US debt levels could be up to 30 percent lower. The article emphasizes the importance of this analysis as other countries, such as Europe and China, seek to establish alternatives to the US as suppliers of safe assets and reserve currencies. The model used in the analysis assumes certain utility functions and output processes, and the results indicate that the special status significantly increases the maximum debt that the US can sustain. Losing this role could present challenges for the sustainability of the US public debt. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of Pacha: Revista de Estudios Contemporáneos del Sur Global is the property of PACHA REVISTA DE ESTUDIOS CONTEMPORANEOS DEL SUR GLOBAL and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Who bears the cost of peace in societies transitioning from oppressive regimes? Who is responsible for paying back the debts incurred by dictators? These questions are crucial in transitional justice situations, yet the discipline discusses debts and transitional justice separately. While sovereign debts are viewed within markets and global economic frameworks, transitional justice is considered within citizens and human rights frameworks. This approach is flawed as it marginalizes human dignity and social justice considerations. To rectify this schism, this Article brings these two legal spheres together in an epistemic dialogue using sovereign debt as the point of intersection. In transitional justice situations, sovereign debts should be the primary sites of just reckoning and accountability. Separating transitional justice and sovereign debts abandons the principal reason for transitional justice, which is to serve citizens. By reckoning with sovereign debts in transitional justice situations, we can transform the paradigm and inspire a decolonial (re)imagination of International Economic Law. This will help resolve the enduring puzzle of sovereign debts shielded with sanctified market veils such as pacta sunt servanda, party autonomy, and terse treaty interpretation. Using Africa as the standpoint, this Article suggests that a unified paradigm of transitional justice and sovereign debts will enhance socioeconomic justice, facilitate transparency, deepen democracy, and stimulate human flourishing in transitional societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents evidence of global and regional comovements in public debt and examines their trends and features. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model with time‐varying parameters based on the debt‐to‐GDP ratio of 115 countries. We find the global factor accounts for 38 percent of the total variation in the debt ratio worldwide, but its share decreases over time. Countries with more financial openness and a greater share of external public debt are more exposed to global/regional comovements. The assertion that international financial integration encourages higher government borrowing applies primarily to high‐income countries and it does not hold globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article by Fukunari Kimura discusses Sri Lanka's sovereign debt crisis during the COVID-19 period. The paper highlights the chronic twin debt problem and the relative shrinkage of the tradable sector as key factors contributing to the crisis. It also examines the government fiscal balance, the structure of public external debt, and the anti-trade biases in policies. The author argues that regaining policy discipline and removing anti-trade policies are necessary for resolving the crisis. The paper emphasizes that the crisis was not solely caused by COVID-19 but was a result of long-term mismanagement of public external debt. [Extracted from the article]

This mathematical model is based on a system of two non-linear delay differential equations representing GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth and national debt respectively. Growth of GDP is directly proportional to national debt. In the absence of national debt, there could be no or very slow GDP growth. The national debt is heavily dependent on external loans and external investments. These investments act as a catalyst for accelerating the rate of GDP. It is assumed that the external debt is never paid off fully. The availability of external investments is not immediate as per demand but takes some time for the maturation of the deal. The time delay in actual arrival of the foreign investment and its effect on GDP-National debt dynamics is the main focus of this study. This effect is studied using a delay parameter τ. The non-zero equilibrium of the system is calculated, and the stability analysis is performed on it. Hopf bifurcation is observed for a critical value of the delay parameter. Numerical simulation is performed using MATLAB code. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nigeria's external and domestic debt have been rising very rapidly in recent years despite the crushing weight of debt burden that almost crippled its economy in previous decades. This study examines the likely determinants of public debt in Nigeria over the period 1970–2020 with a focus on the effects of armed conflict, arms imports, and military spending. Unlike most previous studies that focus only on external debt, this study employs the three separate measures of public debt, namely, government gross debt, external debt, and domestic debt. In addition to being more applicable to the case of Nigeria, this also allows us to investigate whether the drivers of public debt vary with the measure of debt used. Employing the ARDL approach to cointegration and a number of robustness checks, findings suggest that whereas conflict, arms imports, and military spending have statistically positive effects on external debt, they do not have a significant effect on domestic debt. Conflict and arms import have positive effects on gross government debt which is unsurprising given that gross debt includes foreign currency denominated debt. Policy recommendations based upon these findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how external debts influence sustainable development in emerging economies and low‐income countries from 101 countries from 2016 to 2020. External debt significantly aids countries in achieving their sustainable development goals but affects individual goal differently. While external debts promote well‐being, education quality, gender equality, employment, economic growth, and institutional strength, they negatively affect the sustainability of cities, communities, and ecosystems. Long‐term external and public debts make a significant contribution to promoting sustainable development, but excessive external borrowing could hamper sustainable development progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For emerging economies, borrowing abroad is a double-edged sword: it can buffer against adverse economic shocks and smooth their domestic consumption; however, it can also amplify volatility in consumption, depending on the currency in which the debt is denominated and cyclicality in the borrower's exchange rate. We empirically investigate the nexus among external debt portfolios, exchange rate cyclicality, and volatility in consumption of low- and middle-income countries. Since 1980, many countries have concentrated their external debt portfolios' currency composition. By constructing debt-weighted effective exchange rates, we find that currency concentration magnifies exchange rate pro-cyclicality, making domestic consumption more volatile when national income fluctuates. Our results endorse diversifying the currency composition of external debt to mitigate the negative consequences of "original sin." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important macroeconomic goals of countries is economic growth. In order to achieve this aim, the production levels of countries must be increased. Increasing the production level depends on the amount of investment. One of the main factors that determines the quantity of investment is the level of savings. The level of savings shows the quantity of capital, that is, the level of financing of an economy. Countries with a low level of domestic savings refer to foreign resources to finance their investments. In other words, they prefer the external borrowing method. At this point, the relationship between external borrowing and economic growth has emerged as a research topic. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of public sector external debt and private sector external debt on economic growth in Turkey with quarterly data for the period 2011-2019. In the study, investment, labor, and openness ratio were used as control variables. In the study, ARDL bound test method has been used to determine the short term and long term relationship between the variables. According to the findings of the study, while public sector external debt positively affects economic growth in the long term, it negatively affects economic growth in the short term. Also, the analysis results showed private sector external debt negatively affects economic growth in the long term, it positively affects economic growth in the short term. On the other hand, according to the analysis results, investments and labor have a positive effect and openness ratio negative effect on economic growth in the long term. In the short term, the effect of investments and openness ratio on economic growth was found to be positive, while the effect of the labor was found to be insignificant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research aims to study some macroeconomic variables (economic growth, inflation, unemployment, money supply (M2)) and their relationship to public debt, in addition to measuring and analyzing the relationship between some macroeconomic variables and public debt in the Iraqi economy. For the period (2004-2020). As the research relied on the descriptive approach and the quantitative approach based on econometrics through the application of modern standard methods, as the methodology of the Autoregressive Distributed Deceleration Model (ARDL) was used, and the quarterly data for the period (2004-2020) was used in order to measure and analyze the relationship between some macroeconomic variables And represented by (economic growth, inflation, unemployment, broad money supply) as independent variables and public debt as a dependent variable through the use of the statistical program (Eviews 10). The most important findings of the research are the existence of an inverse relationship in the short and long terms between the independent variables represented by (economic growth, money supply, inflation, unemployment) and the dependent variable represented by (public debt), meaning that the high rates of independent economic variables positively affect the Public debt, which leads to its decline. The research recommended that the responsible authorities represented by macroeconomic policies should work to find ways and means that reduce dependence on external debt because it is a source of concern and danger to the Iraqi economy, especially with regard to the factor of economic and political dependence that results from this public debt, especially that Iraq enjoys With financial abundance and fertile soil, the responsible authorities must work hard to obtain the best independence for these wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors examine how the major board reforms recently implemented by countries around the world affect firms' choice of debt. Design/methodology/approach: Using a quasi-experimental setting of major board reforms around the world that aim to improve board-related governance practices in various areas, this study investigates the impact of effective board monitoring on corporate debt choice. The authors employ difference-in-differences-type quasi-natural experiment method and path analysis for hypotheses testing. Findings: The authors find that the implementation of board reforms is positively associated with firms' preference for public debt financing over bank debt. However, this effect tends to weaken after the fourth year following the implementation of board reforms. In additional analyses, the authors find that "rule-based" reforms have a more pronounced effect on firms' choice of debt than do "comply-or-explain" reforms. Both (1) strengthened firm-level internal governance practices that address concerns about the agency cost of debt and (2) reduced information asymmetries play important roles in facilitating firms' debt choice, but the evidence suggests that the former is the economic mechanism through which country-level reforms affect corporate debt choice. Research limitations/implications: The study extends the literature examining the heterogeneity of corporate debt choices in a global setting and the literature on the consequences of corporate governance reforms. Practical implications: The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the corporate board reforms implemented in countries around the world, addressing concerns from critics about their potential harm or ineffectiveness. Originality/value: The results indicate that country-level board reforms reduce the extent to which shareholder–creditor conflicts harm shareholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implications of trade, macroeconomic management, and economic integration for external debt have rarely been researched in public debt studies. Hence, the novelty of this study's contribution to the literature hinges on identifying the significance of these factors in external debt accumulation for West African countries from 1981 to 2020. Methodologically, the study applied pooled mean group analytical approach due to its significance in identifying short-term heterogeneous effects. Empirical deductions from the study indicated that trade and economic integration would potentially trigger external debt accumulations in the short term, while the implication of macroeconomic management is neutral. However, the long-term quantified relations of trade and economic integration on external debt demonstrate a diminishing effect, while macroeconomic management has weak significance. The individual country short-term results indicated that trade enhanced the volume of external debt in almost all countries examined. Also, macroeconomic management and economic integration were revealed to have moderate and insignificant associations with external debt accumulation. Furthermore, this study affirmed that the role of financial sector uncertainty, political imbalance, insurgency, and disease outbreaks are accompanying exacerbating factors for foreign indebtedness in West African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches / İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper analyzes the interaction among childcare support policies, endogenous fertility, and human capital accumulation using an overlapping-generations model, which is mainly based on Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003) and Cardak (2004). Although Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003) consider endogenous fertility and child allowances financed by tax or foreign debt in a model of a small open economy, they ignore educational expenditures and do not analyze human capital accumulation and national debt. Although Cardak (2004) considers human capital accumulation and assumes it is determined by governmental or parental expenditures on education and by parent's human capital endowments, he ignores child allowances and assumes population size is constant in each period. This study considers human capital accumulation in a model introduced childcare time with endogenous fertility and assumes that child allowances and childcare services are financed by income tax and national debt. We then consider two childcare support policies--raise child allowances or expand childcare services--and compare the effects of both policies on endogenous fertility and human capital accumulation. Moreover, we analyze dynamics of national debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting external public debt under conditions of uncertainty is important as it allows the country to respond adequately to economic and financial challenges, promotes efficient management of financial resources, formation of a stable financial policy and ensures the country's external debt security, which are critical elements for ensuring economic sustainability and sustainable development. The article's main purpose is to critically analyze and apply existing time-series forecasting methodologies to determine the future values of Ukraine's external public debt in conditions of uncertainty caused by the still unresolved consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and russia's invasion and full-scale war in Ukraine. Using three forecasting methods, namely trendline extrapolation, exponential smoothing, and autoregressive and moving average models, the paper forecasts the volume of external public debt until 2029 and presents a graphical representation of the debt dynamics from 2011 to 2029. The most pessimistic forecast for the growth of external public debt was revealed when applying the method of data extrapolation based on the trendline. A comparative analysis of the forecast values for the three forecasting methods has revealed common trends in the growth of public debt, as well as the key advantages and disadvantages inherent in each model. Importantly, the article emphasizes the common risks identified in forecasting Ukraine's external debt using time series analysis models, including the problem of achieving only short-term forecasting accuracy and insufficient flexibility taking into account complex and unexpected changes that may arise in conditions of uncertainty and economic instability. The results of the study provide valuable information for policymakers and stakeholders trying to navigate the complexities of managing external public debt under uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, public debt constitute one of the significant and frequently discussed topics of the public finance discipline due to the size it has reached. Borrowing is an substantial source of financing used by both developed, underdeveloped and developing countries. The main reason for public debt is the financing of public expenditures. Although the main purpose of borrowing is fiscal, it is seen that they have been used for various purposes from past to present. In this context, it can be stated that borrowing has the potential to both drag countries into crisis and take them out of the crisis. In the literature, public debt is classified into various categories. According to the classification made in terms of their sources, it is divided into two as domestic and external debt. External debt constitutes one of the most essential problems for developing countries such as Turkey. In the study, firstly, the concept of government debt is explained and theoretical approaches regarding government debt are discussed. Then, the concept of external debt is examined and its reasons and types are addressed. In the next section, the course of external debt in Turkey from the establishment of the republic to the present day is analyzed. External debt in Turkey is evaluated in detail by dividing them into five different periods within a historical process. In the study, both the amount and composition of public debt in Turkey are examined depending on the changing conditions of the periods. It is seen that since the 1990s, domestic debt has started to be used more in financing public debt in Turkey, and as of the end of the 1990s, the borrowings by the private sector within the total external debt stock has been increasing. In this context, it may be said that there has been a transformation in Turkey's debt structure over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers a semiparametric threshold regression model with two threshold variables. The proposed model allows endogenous threshold variables and endogenous slope regressors. Under the diminishing threshold effects framework, we derive consistency and asymptotic results of our proposed estimator for weakly dependent data. We study the finite sample performance of our proposed estimator via small Monte Carlo simulations and apply our model to classify economic growth regimes based on both national public debt and national external debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between public external debt and the economic growth of a country is still a subject of significant interest and controversy for researchers. This article focuses on the issue of the effect of the management of the external debt of developing countries on macroeconomic aggregates. The objective is to conduct an in-depth study of the issue of foreign debt carried out by Tunisia and to know its effects on the economy, notably economic growth in long-term. Using a simple methodological approach, VAR techniques were used to reach the aim of the study over the period 2000-2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Riwayat: Educational Journal of History & Humanities is the property of Riwayat: Educational Journal of History & Humanities and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The analysis of public debt determinants is well documented in the literature. However, previous studies give more focus to the economic determinants neglecting the role played by socio‐political factors. The purpose of this study is to fill that gap observed in the literature by investigating the impact of socio‐political factors on CEMAC countries' public debt accumulation in a bivariate relationship. The paper employs the OLS and GLS as baseline models using panel data covering the period from 1980 to 2021. The study uses as alternative techniques the FE, FE‐IV, and the GMM for robustness checks. The empirical findings highlight the system (both presidential and legislative), corruption, Electoral openness and Competitiveness for legislative election (Liec), and fraud as the main driving factors of public debt in CEMAC countries. This paper suggests further studies to give a particular interest to socio‐political factors while investigating the determinants of public debt in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia's external public debt continues to grow with a ratio of 30.1% of GDP. In the first quarter of 2023, Indonesia's external public debt reached 199.4 billion US dollars or equivalent to 3000 trillion rupiahs. This condition makes Indonesia a debtor country that depend on international creditor countries or institutions. In addition, state sukuk as an alternative to state financing with sharia guidelines also continues to grow, but its performance cannot be equal to external public debt as one of the pillars of Indonesia's economic growth. Therefore, this study is present to analyse the effect of government external public debt paired with state sukuk as an Islamic fiscal variable on Indonesia's economic growth. Moreover, this study also analyses the factors that influence the growth of Indonesia's external public debt. The sample used to analyse the effect of government external public debt and state sukuk on Indonesia's economic growth was taken from the first quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2023. This study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to find empirical finding of the model. The results of this study indicate that the external public debt variable in the long term has a significant negative effect on economic growth while the state sukuk variable in the long term has no effect on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has become the world's largest bilateral creditor to low- and middle-income countries, and yet its participation in collective debt-relief frameworks led by western multilateral institutions—the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Paris Club—has not met those institutions' expectations. Prevailing discussion perceives China's 'reserved' participation as free-riding on or contesting the international sovereign debt regime. This article advances ongoing discussion by drawing a historical parallel between China's current debt-relief approach and that of the United States and the multilateral institutions during and after the debt crisis of the 1980s. The article finds that towards the end of the 1980s, the US transitioned from practicing a new money approach—continued financing for existing projects—to a haircut approach—increasingly writing off debts. Around the same time, multilateral institutions started to become more acceptive of debt forgiveness. Yet China's policy banks, the main financiers of its overseas projects, have been primarily practising a commercially oriented, new money approach. China's rise has therefore revitalized an approach that western private banks once commonly practised and weakened the current international sovereign debt regime that took shape in the post-1980s decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]