Search

Abstract Background Physical activity and sleep are established modifiable lifestyle factors, but the optimal time of the day of these behaviours for health is unknown. This study examined the independent and joint associations of diurnal patterns of physical activity and sleep with all-cause mortality. Methods This prospective cohort study included 6,673 participants who have attended the accelerometer assessment in the 2011–2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Diurnal patterns of accelerometer-measured physical activity and sleep were identified using K-means clustering analysis. All-cause mortality was ascertained from the accelerometer measurement to December 31, 2019 (median follow-up 6.8 years). Survey-weighted Cox proportional hazard models were performed to estimate the independent and joint associations of diurnal patterns of physical activity and sleep with all-cause mortality. Results Diurnal patterns identified were: early-morning (32.4%), midday (42.5%), and late-afternoon (25.1%) for physical activity; and irregular sleep (37.4%), morning lark (33.6%), and night owl (29.0%) for sleep. After adjusting for volume of physical activity, sleep duration and other potential covariates, the early-morning physical activity pattern (hazard ratio 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.13–1.64) and irregular sleep pattern (1.42, 1.01–1.99) were independently associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality, compared with midday physical activity and morning lark sleep patterns, respectively. In addition, participants with the combined pattern of early-morning physical activity and irregular sleep had higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to those with midday physical activity combined with a morning lark sleep pattern (1.92, 1.33–2.78). Several sociodemographic differences were observed in the strength of these associations. Conclusions Wearable activity-rest monitoring data showed that peak physical activity in the early morning and irregular sleep diurnal patterns are associated with increased mortality risk, and the combination of these patterns further exaggerated the risk. Public health program should acknowledge that the diurnal patterns of physical activity and sleep, in addition to their duration and frequency, may play a crucial role in lifestyle-based health promotion and management strategies.

OBJECTIVE: Leisure-time physical activity (PA) has been hypothesized to reduce the likelihood of occupational injuries, but it is unclear whether this association varies between workplace and commuting injuries. The aim of this study was to examine the association between PA and risk of workplace and commuting injuries. METHODS: Data were derived from the Finnish Public Sector study including 82 716 person-observations (48 116 participants). PA was requested repeatedly in four questionnaire surveys between 2000–2012. The average level of PA from two subsequent questionnaires was used to assess long-term PA. To obtain a 1-year incidence of injuries, participants were linked to occupational injury records from the national register. Logistic regression analysis with generalized estimating equations was used to examine the association between PA and injury risk. The analysis was adjusted for age, sex, education, work schedule, job demand, sleep difficulties, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and depression for workplace and commuting injuries, and workplace injuries were additionally adjusted for physical heaviness of an occupation and injury risk by occupation. RESULTS: Higher level of PA was associated with a lower risk of workplace injuries compared to inactive participants [odds ratio (OR) 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73–0.98]. This association was most marked in the ≥50-year-old age group (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.64–0.99). No association between the PA and the risk for commuting injuries was observed. CONCLUSION: Higher PA is associated with lower risk of workplace injuries particularly among older employees.

Summary: Background: While individuals who were separated from their biological family and placed into the care of the state during childhood (out-of-home care) are more prone to developing selected adverse health problems in adulthood, their risk of cardiovascular disease is uncertain. Our aim was to explore this association by pooling published and unpublished results from prospective cohort studies. Methods: We used two approaches to identifying relevant data on childhood care and adult cardiovascular disease (PROSPERO registration CRD42021254665). First, to locate published studies, we searched PubMed (Medline) until November 2023. Second, with the objective of identifying unpublished studies with the potential to address the present research question, we scrutinised retrieved reviews on childhood out-of-home care and other adult health outcomes. Included studies were required to satisfy three criteria: a cohort study in which the assessment of care was made prospectively pre-adulthood (in the avoidance of recall bias); data on an unexposed comparator group were available (for the computation of relative risk); and a diagnosis of adult cardiovascular disease events (coronary heart disease, stroke, or their combination) had been made (as opposed to risk factors only). Collaborating investigators provided study-specific estimates which were aggregated using random-effects meta-analysis. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess individual study quality. Findings: Twelve studies (2 published, 10 unpublished) met the inclusion criteria, and investigators from nine provided viable results, including updated analyses of the published studies. Studies comprised 611,601 individuals (301,129 women) from the US, UK, Sweden, Finland, and Australia. Five of the nine studies were judged to be of higher methodological quality. Relative to the unexposed, individuals with a care placement during childhood had a 51% greater risk of cardiovascular disease in adulthood (summary rate ratio after age- and sex-adjustment [95% confidence interval]: 1.51 [1.22, 1.86]; range of study-specific estimates: 1.07 to 2.06; I2 = 69%, p = 0.001). This association was attenuated but persisted after adjustment for socioeconomic status in childhood (8 studies; 1.41 [1.15, 1.72]) and adulthood (9 studies, 1.29 [1.11, 1.51]). Interpretation: Our findings show that individuals with experience of out-of-home care in childhood have a moderately raised risk of cardiovascular disease in adulthood. Funding: Medical Research Council; National Institute on Aging; Wellcome Trust.

Summary: Background: Physical abuse can lead to severe health consequences that extend beyond immediate harm. We explored the associations of physical abuse experienced during childhood and adulthood with a wide range of adult health conditions requiring hospital treatment. Methods: We utilised data from a sub-cohort of 157,366 UK Biobank participants (46.4% of the baseline population; age range 45–81; 89,101 women) and repeated analyses in an independent population of 85,929 adults from the Finnish Public Sector (FPS) study (age range 17–78; 68,544 women). Participants in both cohorts reported instances of physical and sexual abuse at study baseline. Follow-up included 77 common health conditions ascertained from linkage data to national hospital and mortality registries. Findings: Mean follow-up duration was 4.6 years (SD 0.14) in UK Biobank and 10.6 years (4.3) in FPS. Physical and sexual abuse was associated with 22 mental and physical health conditions. After multivariable adjustments, participants who experienced abuse during both early and later stages of life had a 2.12- (95% confidence interval 1.39–3.23) to 3.37-fold (1.52–7.45) increased risk of mental and behavioural disorders, a 1.46 (1.20–1.79) to 1.83 (1.05–3.20) times increased risk of metabolic, haematologic, and respiratory diseases, and a 1.24 (1.07–1.45) times higher risk of inflammatory diseases compared with non-exposed participants. The absolute risk difference between these groups was greatest for metabolic and haematologic conditions (rate 381 and risk difference 160 per 100,000 person-years). Frailty, comorbidities, and competing risk of death did not modify these associations, but the possibility of bias or residual confounding cannot be excluded. Interpretation: Repeated exposure to physical and sexual abuse amplifies the risk of hospitalisations from mental disorders and physical diseases spanning diverse organ systems. Addressing this issue may necessitate multifaceted strategies, including shifts in societal norms, legal measures, and increased healthcare provision for affected individuals and their families. Funding: Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, U.S. National Institute on Aging, Academy of Finland.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the utility of risk estimation derived from questionnaires and administrative records in predicting long-term sickness absence among shift workers.METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised 3197 shift-working hospital employees (mean age 44.5 years, 88.0% women) who responded to a brief 8-item questionnaire on work disability risk factors and were linked to 28 variables on their working hour and workplace characteristics obtained from administrative registries at study baseline. The primary outcome was the first sickness absence lasting ≥90 days during a 4-year follow-up.RESULTS: The C-index of 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70–0.77] for a questionnaire-only based prediction model, 0.71 (95% CI 0.67–0.75) for an administrative records-only model, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.76–0.82) for a model combining variables from both data sources indicated good discriminatory ability. For a 5%-estimated risk as a threshold for positive test results, the detection rates were 76%, 74%, and 75% and the false positive rates were 40%, 45% and 34% for the three models. For a 20%-risk threshold, the corresponding detection rates were 14%, 8%, and 27% and the false positive rates were 2%, 2%, and 4%. To detect one true positive case with these models, the number of false positive cases accompanied varied between 7 and 10 using the 5%-estimated risk, and between 2 and 3 using the 20%-estimated risk cut-off. The pattern of results was similar using 30-day sickness absence as the outcome.CONCLUSIONS: The best predictive performance was reached with a model including both questionnaire responses and administrative records. Prediction was almost as accurate with models using only variables from one of these data sources. Further research is needed to examine the generalizability of these findings.

OBJECTIVE: In terms of prevention, it is important to determine effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) when some workplace psychosocial resources are high while others are low. The aim of the study was to assess the prospective relationship between clustering of workplace psychosocial resources and risk of CVD among employees. METHODS: We pooled data from three cohort studies of 135 669 employees (65% women, age 18–65 years and free of CVD) from Denmark, Finland and Sweden. Baseline horizontal resources (culture of collaboration and support from colleagues) and vertical resources (leadership quality and procedural justice) were measured using standard questionnaire items. Incident CVD, including coronary heart and cerebrovascular disease, was ascertained using linked electronic health records. We used latent class analysis to assess clustering (latent classes) of workplace psychosocial resources. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between these clusters and risk of CVD, adjusting for demographic and employment-related factors and pre-existing physical and mental disorders. RESULTS: We identified five clusters of workplace psychosocial resources from low on both vertical and horizontal resources (13%) to generally high resources (28%). High horizontal resources were combined with either intermediate [hazard ratio (HR) 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74–0.95] or high (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78–1.00) vertical resources were associated with lower risks of CVD compared to those with generally low resources. The association was most prominent for cerebrovascular disease (eg, general high resources: HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.67–0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with high levels of workplace psychosocial resources across horizontal and vertical dimensions have a lower risk of CVD, particularly cerebrovascular disease.

Summary: Background: Few large-scale studies have examined the health impacts of overcrowded housing in European countries. The aim of this study was to assess whether household crowding during adolescence increases the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Switzerland. Methods: Study participants were 556,191 adolescents aged 10–19 years at the 1990 census from the Swiss National Cohort. Household crowding at baseline was measured as the ratio between the number of persons living in the household and the number of available rooms, categorized as none (ratio ≤ 1), moderate (1 < ratio ≤ 1.5), and severe (ratio > 1.5). Participants were linked to administrative mortality records through 2018 and followed for premature mortality from all causes, cardiometabolic disease and self-harm or substance use. Cumulative risk differences between ages 10 and 45 were standardized by parental occupation, residential area, permit status and household type. Findings: Of the sample, 19% lived in moderately and 5% lived in severely crowded households. During an average follow-up of 23 years, 9766 participants died. Cumulative risk of death from all causes was 2359 (95% compatibility intervals: 2296–2415) per 100,000 persons when living in non-crowded households. Living in moderately crowded households led to 99 additional deaths (−63 to 256) per 100,000 persons and living in severely crowded households 258 additional deaths (−37 to 607) per 100,000 persons. The effect of crowding on mortality from cardiometabolic diseases, self-harm or substance use was negligible. Interpretation: Excess risk of premature mortality in adolescents living in overcrowded households appears to be small or negligible in Switzerland. Funding: University of Fribourg Scholarship Programme for foreign post-doctoral researchers.

Abstract Background Hospital physicians’ work includes on-call duties to provide 24/7 health care. Previous studies using self-reported survey data have associated long working hours and on-call work with sleep difficulties. To reduce recall bias, we complemented survey data with payroll-based objective data to study whether hospital physicians’ realized working hours are associated with sleep. Methods The study was nested within the Finnish Public Sector study. We used survey data on 728 hospital physicians (mean age 43.4 years, 62% females) from 2015 linked to realized daily working hour data from 3 months preceding the survey. The associations of working hour characteristics with sleep quantity and quality were studied with multinomial logistic regression analysis adjusted for demographics, overall stressfulness of life situation, control over scheduling of shifts, and hospital district. Results One fourth (26%) of the participants reported short (≤6.5 h) average sleep duration. Frequent night work (> 6 shifts/91 days) was associated with short sleep (OR 1.87 95%CI 1.23–2.83) compared to no night work. Approximately one third (32%) of the physicians reported insufficient sleep. Physicians with long weekly working hours (> 48 hours) had higher odds for insufficient sleep (OR 1.78 95%CI 1.15–2.76) than physicians with short weekly working hours ( 12 shifts/3 months OR 2.00 95%CI 1.08–3.72), frequent night work (OR 1.60 95%CI 1.09–2.37), and frequent short shift intervals (≤11 hours; > 12 times/3 months OR 1.65 95%CI 1.01–2.69) compared to not having these working hour characteristics. Nearly half of the physicians (48%) reported at least one sleep difficulty at least two times a week and frequent night work increased odds for difficulties in initiating sleep (OR 2.43 95%CI 1.04–5.69). Otherwise sleep difficulties were not associated with the studied working hour characteristics. Conclusion We used realized working hour data to strengthen the evidence on on-call work and sleep quality and our results advice to limit the frequency of night work, on-call shifts, short shift intervals and long weekly working hours to promote hospital physicians’ sufficient sleep.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies on effects of emotional demands on depression have relied on self-reported exposure data and lacked control for potential confounding by pre-employment risk factors for depression. This study used a register-based design to examine the risk of hospital-treated depressive disorder in relation to occupational levels of emotional demands at work, furthermore addressing the role of risk factors for depression before workforce entry. METHODS: We analyzed data from two Danish register-based cohorts – Job Exposure Matrix Analyses of Psychosocial Factors and Healthy Ageing in Denmark (JEMPAD, N= 1 665 798) (17) and Danish Work Life Course Cohort (DaWCo, N=939 411), which link assessments of emotional demands by job exposure matrices to records of hospital-treated depressive disorder among employees aged 15–59 years at baseline (average follow up: 9.7 years in JEMPAD, 7.3 years in DaWCo). Potential confounders comprised sociodemographics, job control, work-related violence and physical demands at work. In DaWCo, we followed individuals from their entry into the workforce, and also included data on risk factors for depression before workforce entry (eg, parental income, education, and psychiatric diagnoses). RESULTS: Employees in occupations with high emotional demands had an increased risk of hospital-treated depressive disorder with confounder-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.32 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24‒1.41] and 1.19 (95% CI 1.09‒1.30) in JEMPAD and DaWCO, respectively. This association remained after controlling for risk factors before workforce entry. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that employees in occupations with high emotional demands are at increased risk of hospital-treated depressive disorder. This increased risk was neither attributable to reporting bias nor explained by the included risk factors for depression recorded before workforce entry.

Abstract Background There is inconsistent evidence that long working hours and night work are risk factors for sickness absence, but few studies have considered variation in the length of exposure time window as a potential source of mixed findings. We examined whether the association of long working hours and night work with sickness absence is dependent on the length of exposure to the working hour characteristics. Methods We analysed records of working hours, night work and sickness absence for a cohort of 9226 employees in one hospital district in Finland between 2008 and 2019. The exposure time windows ranged from 10 to 180 days, and we used Cox’s proportional hazards models with time-dependent exposures to analyse the associations between working-hour characteristics and subsequent sickness absence. Results Longer working hours for a period of 10 to 30 days was not associated with the risk of sickness absence whereas longer working hours for a period of 40 to 180 days was associated with a lower risk of sickness absence. Irrespective of exposure time window, night work was not associated with sickness absence. Conclusions It is important to consider the length of exposure time window when examining associations between long working hours and sickness absence, whereas the association between night work and sickness absence is not similarly sensitive to exposure times.

ObjectivesThe COVID-19 pandemic has posed several risk factors to healthcare workers' (HCWs') emotional distress. The purpose of the study was to enhance understanding of the experiences and feelings of HCWs during the COVID-19 pandemic, with specific reference to infection prevention and control (IPC) practices and guidance, focusing on the quality and availability of personal protective equipment (PPE), guidelines, and management. With a qualitative approach, we aimed to enable a wider narrative; to gain a more detailed understanding related to PPE use and identify experiences that can be overlooked in forced-choice questionnaires.MethodsAn online questionnaire was conducted among HCWs of the City of Helsinki and Helsinki University Hospital between 12.6.2020 and 5.4.2021. Altogether 1,580 HCWs participated in the study, from whom 579 shared 1,666 free-text responses. These responses were analyzed qualitatively, and the results were combined with statistical data on the participants' working conditions and backgrounds.ResultsWe identified problems in PPE availability and changing guidelines as factors causing the most distress in the participants. Regarding availability, running out of masks and respirators emerged as the most worrying issue, and inadequate PPE was associated with the excessive workload (OR 1.51, CI 95% 1.01–2.25). The results also highlight the importance of transparent and clear communication regarding IPC instructions and guidance, and clear IPC guidance was associated with better levels of reported recovery from work (OR 1.51, CI 95% 1.06–2.14).ConclusionsOur study highlights the importance of adequate PPE provision, transparent communication, clear guidance, and supportive supervisory work in this ongoing pandemic and potential new ones. We suggest more rigorous preparation, with crisis communication planning and emergency storage of PPE.

BackgroundThe association between health and working hours is hypothesized to be reciprocal, but few longitudinal studies have examined changes in both health and working hour patterns over time. We examined combined trajectories of self-related health and two working hour patterns (working

OBJECTIVES: Data mining can complement traditional hypothesis-based approaches in characterizing unhealthy work exposures. We used it to derive a hypothesis-free characterization of working hour patterns in shift work and their associations with sickness absence (SA). METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, complete payroll-based work hours and SA dates were extracted from a shift-scheduling register from 2008 to 2019 on 6029 employees from a hospital district in Southwestern Finland. We applied permutation distribution clustering to time series of successive shift lengths, between-shift rest periods, and shift starting times to identify clusters of similar working hour patterns over time. We examined associations of clusters spanning on average 23 months with SA during the following 23 months. RESULTS: We identified eight distinct working hour patterns in shift work: (i) regular morning (M)/evening (E) work, weekends off; (ii) irregular M work; (iii) irregular M/E/night (N) work; (iv) regular M work, weekends off; (v) irregular, interrupted M/E/N work; (vi) variable M work, weekends off; (vii) quickly rotating M/E work, non-standard weeks; and (viii) slowly rotating M/E work, non-standard weeks. The associations of these eight working-hour clusters with risk of future SA varied. The cluster of irregular, interrupted M/E/N work was the strongest predictor of increased SA (days per year) with an incidence rate ratio of 1.77 (95% confidence interval 1.74–1.80) compared to regular M/E work, weekends off. CONCLUSIONS: This data-mining suggests that hypothesis-free approaches can contribute to scientific understanding of healthy working hour characteristics and complement traditional hypothesis-driven approaches.

Abstract Purpose Alternative duty work is a procedure that enables an employee with a short-term disability to perform modified duties as an alternative to sickness absence. We examined whether the implementation of an alternative duty policy was associated with reduced sickness absence in the Finnish public sector. Methods Two city administrations (A and D) that implemented an alternative duty work policy to their employees (n = 5341 and n = 7538) served as our intervention cities, and two city administrations (B and C) that did not implement the policy represented the reference cities (n = 6976 and n = 6720). The outcomes were the number of annual days, all episodes, and short-term (

Summary: Background: Heavy alcohol consumption increases the risk of several chronic diseases. In this multicohort study, we estimated the number of life-years without major chronic diseases according to different characteristics of alcohol use. Methods: In primary analysis, we pooled individual-level data from up to 129,942 adults across 12 cohort studies with baseline data collection on alcohol consumption, drinking patterns, and history between 1986 and 2005 (the IPD-Work Consortium). Self-reported alcohol consumption was categorised according to UK guidelines – non-drinking (never or former drinkers); moderate consumption (1–14 units); heavy consumption (>14 units per week). We further subdivided moderate and heavy drinkers by binge drinking pattern (alcohol-induced loss of consciousness). In addition, we assessed problem drinking using linked data on hospitalisations due to alcohol abuse or poisoning. Follow-up for chronic diseases for all participants included incident type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and respiratory disease (asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) as ascertained via linkage to national morbidity and mortality registries, repeated medical examinations, and/or self-report. We estimated years lived without any of these diseases between 40 and 75 years of age according to sex and characteristics of alcohol use. We repeated the main analyses using data from 427,621 participants in the UK Biobank cohort study. Findings: During 1·73 million person-years at risk, 22,676 participants in IPD-Work cohorts developed at least one chronic condition. From age 40 to 75 years, never-drinkers [men: 29·3 (95%CI 27·9–30·8) years, women 29·8 (29·2–30·4) years)] and moderate drinkers with no binge drinking habit [men 28·7 (28·4–29·0) years, women 29·6 (29·4–29·7) years] had the longest disease-free life span. A much shorter disease-free life span was apparent in participants who experienced alcohol poisoning [men 23·4 (20·9–26·0) years, women 24·0 (21·4–26·5) years] and those with self-reported heavy overall consumption and binge drinking [men: 26·0 (25·3–26·8), women 27·5 (26·4–28·5) years]. The pattern of results for alcohol poisoning and self-reported alcohol consumption was similar in UK Biobank. In IPD-Work and UK Biobank, differences in disease-free years between self-reported moderate drinkers and heavy drinkers were 1·5 years or less. Interpretation: Individuals with alcohol poisonings or heavy self-reported overall consumption combined with a binge drinking habit have a marked 3- to 6-year loss in healthy longevity. Differences in disease-free life between categories of self-reported weekly alcohol consumption were smaller. Funding: Medical Research Council, National Institute on Aging, NordForsk, Academy of Finland, Finnish Work Environment Fund.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the contribution of shift work, work time control (WTC) and informal caregiving, separately and in combination, to sleep disturbances in ageing employees. METHODS: Survey data were obtained from two prospective cohort studies with repeated measurements of working conditions, informal caregiving, and sleep disturbances. We used fixed-effect conditional logistic regression analysis to examine whether within-individual changes in shift work, WTC and informal caregiving were associated with changes in sleep. Secondary analyses included between-individuals comparison using standard logistic regression models. Results from the two cohorts were pooled using meta-analysis. RESULTS: Low WTC and informal caregiving were associated with sleep disturbances in within-individual analyses [odds ratios (OR) ranging between 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.01–1.27) and 1.48 (95% CI 1.29–1.68)] and in between-individuals analyses [OR 1.14 (95% CI 1.03–1.26) to 1.33 (1.19–1.49)]. Shift work alone was not associated with sleep disturbances, but accumulated exposure to shift work, low WTC and informal caregiving was associated with higher risk of sleep disturbances (OR range 1.21–1.76). For some of the sleep outcomes, informal caregiving was related to a higher risk of sleep disturbances when WTC was low and a lower risk when WTC was high. CONCLUSIONS: Informal caregiving and low WTC are associated with risk of sleep disturbances among ageing employees. The findings also suggest that low WTC in combination with informal caregiving may increase the risk of sleep disturbances whereas high WTC may alleviate the adverse impact of informal caregiving on sleep.

Summary: Background: Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time. Methods: Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated. Findings: In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 – 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432–912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9–412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (–29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (–27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs. Interpretation: Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people. Funding: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the association between job strain and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) in Denmark, while accounting for changes of job strain. METHODS: We included all employees residing in Denmark in 2000, aged 30–59 years with no prevalent CHD (N=1 660 150). We determined exposure to job strain from 1996–2009 using a job exposure matrix (JEM) with annual updates. Follow-up for incident CHD was from 2001–2010 via linkage to health records. We used Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between job strain and incident CHD. RESULTS: During 16.1 million person-years, we identified 24 159 incident CHD cases (15.0 per 10 000 person-years). After adjustment for covariates, job strain in 2000 predicted onset of CHD during a mean follow-up of 9.71 years (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.07–1.13). When analyzing changes in job strain from one year to the next and CHD in the subsequent year, persistent job strain (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03–1.10), onset of job strain (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12–1.29) and removal of strain (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12–1.28) were associated with higher CHD incidence compared to persistent no job strain. Associations were similar among men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Job strain is associated with a higher risk of incident CHD in Denmark. As we used a JEM, we can rule out reporting bias. However, under- or overestimation of associations is possible due to non-differential misclassification of job strain and residual confounding by socioeconomic position.

OBJECTIVES: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and learning disabilities (LD) have an early onset and often persist into adulthood, although their relative contribution to incapacity for work is unclear. We examined this issue among young adults with ADHD, ASD or LD taking into account socioeconomic factors and comorbid mental disorders. METHODS: Recorded diagnoses between the ages of 10–35 years between 2001 and 2010 were derived from nationwide inpatient and specialized outpatient hospital registers in Sweden. We identified 15 632 individuals with a main diagnosis of ADHD, 8238 with ASD, and 1038 with LD, and the matched control group without recorded mental disorders (N=124 536). The outcome was the number of register-based sickness absence and work disability pension (SA-DP) days during a maximum of three years follow-up. RESULTS: Among men, the rate ratio (RR) of SA-DP was 11.17 [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.89–12.60] for ADHD, 35.59 (95% CI 30.30–41.81) for ASD, and 9.20 (95% CI 5.76–14.70) for LD, in comparison to those in the reference group. The corresponding risks among women were RR 12.05 (95% CI 10.30–14.09) for ADHD, RR 28.36 (95% CI 22.96–35.02) for ASD, and RR 9.60 (95% CI 5.83–15.81) for LD. The findings were, to a large extent, similar when individuals on DP at baseline were excluded. Comorbid mental disorders further increased the risk of SA-DP. Educational differences were smaller among the patients than in the reference group. CONCLUSIONS: Early-onset neurodevelopmental disorders, particularly with comorbidity, have a far-reaching impact on adult life in terms of SA and DP.

Summary: Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

SUMMARY: Background: Studies on the association between long working hours and health have captured only a narrow range of outcomes (mainly cardiometabolic diseases and depression) and no outcome-wide studies on this topic are available. To achieve wider scope of potential harm, we examined long working hours as a risk factor for a wide range of disease and mortality endpoints. Methods: The data of this multicohort study were from two population cohorts from Finland (primary analysis, n=59 599) and nine cohorts (replication analysis, n=44 262) from Sweden, Denmark, and the UK, all part of the Individual-participant Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) consortium. Baseline-assessed long working hours (≥55 hours per week) were compared to standard working hours (35-40 h). Outcome measures with follow-up until age 65 years were 46 diseases that required hospital treatment or continuous pharmacotherapy, all-cause, and three cause-specific mortality endpoints, ascertained via linkage to national health and mortality registers. Findings: 2747 (4·6%) participants in the primary cohorts and 3027 (6·8%) in the replication cohorts worked long hours. After adjustment for age, sex, and socioeconomic status, working long hours was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular death (hazard ratio 1·68; 95% confidence interval 1·08-2·61 in primary analysis and 1·52; 0·90-2·58 in replication analysis), infections (1·37; 1·13-1·67 and 1·45; 1·13-1·87), diabetes (1·18; 1·01-1·38 and 1·41; 0·98-2·02), injuries (1·22; 1·00-1·50 and 1·18; 0·98-1·18) and musculoskeletal disorders (1·15; 1·06-1·26 and 1·13; 1·00-1·27). Working long hours was not associated with all-cause mortality. Interpretation: Follow-up of 50 health outcomes in four European countries suggests that working long hours is associated with an elevated risk of early cardiovascular death and hospital-treated infections before age 65. Associations, albeit weak, were also observed with diabetes, musculoskeletal disorders and injuries. In these data working long hours was not related to elevated overall mortality. Funding: NordForsk, the Medical Research Council, the National Institute on Aging, the Wellcome Trust, Academy of Finland, and Finnish Work Environment Fund.

Summary: Background: High emotional demands at work can affect employees’ health and there is a need to understand whether such an association might be modified by other working conditions. We aimed to examine emotional demands at work as a risk factor for long-term sickness absence and analyse whether influence, possibilities for development, role conflicts, and physical demands at work might modify this risk. Methods: We did a nationwide, population-based, prospective cohort study in Denmark and included employed individuals who were residing in Denmark in 2000, aged 30–59 years, who had complete data on age, sex, and migration background, with information on emotional demands and possible effect modifiers from job exposure matrices, and covariates and outcome (sickness absence) from population registers. Individuals with long-term sickness absence (≥6 weeks of consecutive sickness absence) between Jan 1, 1998, and Dec 31, 2000, and self-employed individuals were excluded. We assessed long-term sickness absence during a 10-year period from Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2010. Using Cox regression, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs and tested interaction as departure from additivity, estimating relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). Multivariable adjusted models included sex, age, cohabitation, migration background, and income. Findings: 1 521 352 employed individuals were included and contributed data between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2010. During 11 919 021 person-years (mean follow-up 7·8 years), we identified 480 685 new cases of long-term sickness absence. High emotional demands were associated with increased risk of long-term sickness absence compared with low emotional demands, after adjusting for age, sex, cohabitation, migration background, income, and the four possible effect modifiers (adjusted HR 1·55 [95% CI 1·53–1·56]). The association between high emotional demands and risk of long-term sickness absence was stronger in a synergistic way when individuals were also exposed to low possibilities for development (RERI 0·35 [95% CI 0·22–0·47]; 28·9 additional cases per 1000 person-years) and high role conflicts (0·13 [0·11–0·15]; 22·0 additional cases per 1000 person-years). No synergy was observed for influence and physical demands at work. Interpretation: People in occupations with high emotional demands were at increased risk of long-term sickness absence. Our findings on synergistic interactions suggest that, in emotionally demanding occupations, increasing possibilities for development and reducing work-related role conflicts might reduce long-term sickness absence. Further interventional studies are needed to confirm or refute this hypothesis. Funding: Danish Work Environment Research Fund, NordForsk.

Summary: Background: Observational studies have identified a link between unfavourable neighbourhood characteristics and increased risk of morbidity, but it is unclear whether changes in neighbourhoods affect future disease risk. We used a data-driven approach to assess the impact of neighbourhood modification on 79 health outcomes. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, we used pooled, individual-level data from two Finnish cohort studies: the Health and Social Support study and the Finnish Public Sector study. Neighbourhood characteristics (mean educational level, median income, and employment rate of residents, and neighbourhood green space) and individual lifestyle factors of community-dwelling individuals were assessed at baseline (at different waves starting between 1998 and 2013). We repeated assessment of neighbourhood characteristics and lifestyle factors approximately 5 years from each baseline assessment, after which follow-up began for health conditions diagnosed according to the WHO International Classification of Diseases for 79 common health conditions using linkage to electronic health records. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to compute adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of incident disease associated with neighbourhood characteristics and changes in neighbourhood characteristics over time and logistic regression analysis to compute adjusted odds of association between changes in neighbourhood characteristics and individual lifestyle factors. Findings: 114 786 individuals (87 012 [75·8%] women; mean age 44·4 years [SD 11·1]) had complete data and were included in this cohort study. During 1·17 million person-years at risk, we recorded 164 368 new-onset health conditions and 3438 deaths. Favourable changes in neighbourhood characteristics were associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality and incidence of 19 specific health conditions. Unfavourable changes were correspondingly associated with increased risk of mortality and 27 specific health conditions. Among participants who did not move residence during the observation period, relative to individuals who continually lived in disadvantaged neighbourhoods, those who experienced favourable modifications in neighbourhood characteristics had a lower risk of future diabetes (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75–0·93), stroke (0·49, 0·29–0·83), skin disease (0·72, 0·53–0·97), and osteoarthritis (0·87, 0·77–0·99). Living in a neighbourhood with improving characteristics was also associated with improvements in individual-level health-related lifestyle factors. Among participants who lived in advantaged residential environments at baseline, unfavourable changes in neighbourhood characteristics were associated with an increased risk of diabetes, stroke, skin disease, and osteoarthritis compared with individuals who lived in advantaged neighbourhoods throughout the study period. Interpretation: Favourable modifications to residential neighbourhoods showed robust, longitudinal associations with a range of improvements in health outcomes, including improved health behaviours and reduced risk of cardiometabolic, infectious, and orthopaedic conditions. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institute on Aging, NordForsk, and Academy of Finland.

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the associations between shift work and use of antihypertensive, lipid-lowering, and antidiabetic medications. METHODS: Survey data from two cohorts of Finnish men (N=11 998) and women (N=49 944) working in multiple occupations where shift work was used were linked to national Drug Prescription Register data, with up to 11 years of follow-up. In each cohort, age-stratified Cox proportional hazard regression models were computed to examine any incident use of prescription medication for each of the three medical conditions, separately comparing each of two groups of rotating shift workers (those whose schedules included night shifts, and those whose schedules did not include night shifts) with day workers who worked in a similar range of occupations. RESULTS: In the larger cohort, among participants aged 40–49 at baseline, shift work without night shifts was associated with increased use of type-2 diabetes medication after adjustments for sex, occupational status, marital status, alcohol consumption, smoking, and physical activity [hazard ratio (HR) 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.62], while shift work with night shifts was associated with increased use of dyslipidemia medication after adjustments (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.12–1.57). There were no such associations among younger and older shift workers. Also in the larger cohort, among those aged

OBJECTIVES: We examined the extent to which an increase in physical activity would reduce the excess risk of work disability among overweight and obese people (body mass index ≥ 25kg/m^2). METHODS: We used counterfactual modelling approaches to analyze longitudinal data from two Finnish prospective cohort studies (total N=38 744). Weight, height and physical activity were obtained from surveys and assessed twice and linked to electronic records of two indicators of long-term work disability (≥90-day sickness absence and disability pension) for a 7-year follow-up after the latter survey. The models were adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking, and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: The confounder-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of long-term sickness absence for overweight compared to normal-weight participants was 1.43 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35–1.53]. An increase in physical activity among overweight compared to normal-weight individuals was estimated to reduce this HR to 1.40 (95% CI 1.31–1.48). In pseudo-trial analysis including only the persistently overweight, initially physically inactive participants, the HR for long-term sickness absence was 0.82 (95% CI 0.70–0.94) for individuals with increased physical activity compared to those who remained physically inactive. The results for disability pension as an outcome were similar. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the excess risk of work disability among overweight individuals would drop by 3–4% if they increased their average physical activity to the average level of normal-weight people. However, overweight individuals who are physically inactive would reduce their risk of work disability by about 20% by becoming physically active.

Summary: Background: Socioeconomic disadvantage is a risk factor for many diseases. We characterised cascades of these conditions by using a data-driven approach to examine the association between socioeconomic status and temporal sequences in the development of 56 common diseases and health conditions. Methods: In this multi-cohort study, we used data from two Finnish prospective cohort studies: the Health and Social Support study and the Finnish Public Sector study. Our pooled prospective primary analysis data comprised 109 246 Finnish adults aged 17–77 years at study entry. We captured socioeconomic status using area deprivation and education at baseline (1998–2013). Participants were followed up for health conditions diagnosed according to the WHO International Classification of Diseases until 2016 using linkage to national health records. We tested the generalisability of our findings with an independent UK cohort study—the Whitehall II study (9838 people, baseline in 1997, follow-up to 2017)—using a further socioeconomic status indicator, occupational position. Findings: During 1 110 831 person-years at risk, we recorded 245 573 hospitalisations in the Finnish cohorts; the corresponding numbers in the UK study were 60 946 hospitalisations in 186 572 person-years. Across the three socioeconomic position indicators and after adjustment for lifestyle factors, compared with more advantaged groups, low socioeconomic status was associated with increased risk for 18 (32·1%) of the 56 conditions. 16 diseases formed a cascade of inter-related health conditions with a hazard ratio greater than 5. This sequence began with psychiatric disorders, substance abuse, and self-harm, which were associated with later liver and renal diseases, ischaemic heart disease, cerebral infarction, chronic obstructive bronchitis, lung cancer, and dementia. Interpretation: Our findings highlight the importance of mental health and behavioural problems in setting in motion the development of a range of socioeconomically patterned physical illnesses. Policy and health-care practice addressing psychological health issues in social context and early in the life course could be effective strategies for reducing health inequalities. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institute on Aging, NordForsk, British Heart Foundation, Academy of Finland, and Helsinki Institute of Life Science.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the association between co-occurring work stressors and risk of disability pension. METHODS: The work stressors job strain, effort−reward imbalance (ERI), and organizational injustice were measured by a survey in 2008 of 41 862 employees linked to national records of all-cause and cause-specific disability pensions until 2011. Co-occurring work stressors were examined as risk factors of work disability using Cox regression marginal models. RESULTS: Work stressors were clustered: 50.8% had no work stressors [observed-to-expected ratio (O/E)=1.2], 27.4% were exposed to one stressor (O/E=0.61–0.81), 17.7% to two stressors (O/E=0.91–1.73) and 6.4% to all three stressors (O/E=2.59). During a mean follow-up of 3.1 years, 976 disability pensions were granted. Compared to employees with no work stressors, those with (i) co-occurring strain and ERI or (ii) strain, ERI and injustice had a 1.9–2.1-fold [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7–2.6] increased risk of disability retirement. The corresponding hazard ratios were 1.2 and 1.5 (95% CI 1.0–1.8) for strain and ERI alone. Risk of disability pension from depressive disorders was 4.4–4.7-fold (95% CI 2.4–8.0) for combinations of strain+ERI and strain+ERI+injustice, and 1.9–2.5-fold (95% CI 1.1–4.0) for strain and ERI alone. For musculoskeletal disorders, disability risk was 1.6–1.9-fold (95% CI 1.3–2.3) for strain+ERI and ERI+injustice combinations, and 1.3-fold (95% CI 1.0–1.7) for strain alone. Supplementary analyses with work stressors determined using work-unit aggregates supported these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Work stressors tend to cluster in the same individuals. The highest risk of disability pension was observed among those with work stressor combinations strain+ERI or strain+ERI+injustice, rather than for those with single stressors.

OBJECTIVES: We examined whether sickness absence during participation in a state subsidized re-employment program among long-term unemployed people was associated with subsequent labor market attachment. METHODS: We linked 18 944 long-term unemployed participants (aged 18–60 years) of a six-month subsidized re-employment program in Finland to their records of sickness absence during the program and labor market status after the program. We used the latent class growth model to identify labor market attachment trajectories over a six-year follow-up period and multinomial logistic regression to investigate the association between sickness absence and labor market attachment trajectories. RESULTS: We identified four labor market attachment trajectories: "strengthening", (77%), "delayed" (6%), "leavers" (10%), and "non-attached" (7%). Sickness absence was associated with an increased risk of belonging to the leavers and non-attached trajectories. Having >30 days of sickness absence during the six-month re-employment program increased the risk for belonging to the future non-attached trajectory in all age groups, but in particular for those aged 30–44 [odds ratio (OR) 7.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.85–11.14] and 18–29 years (OR 5.38, 95%CI 3.76–7.69). At these ages, having fewer than 30 days sickness absences was also associated with an elevated risk of belonging to the non-attached trajectory, while this risk was lower for those aged 45–60. CONCLUSIONS: Sickness absence during participation in a subsidized re-employment program increased the risk for poor labor market attachment during the subsequent six years. The risk was particularly high among younger participants with >30 days of sickness absence.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the status of night work as a risk factor for common mental disorders (CMD). METHODS: A cohort study with three data waves was conducted on populations of social and healthcare employees for a duration of eight years (total N=46 010). Data were analyzed as a non-randomized pseudo trial to examine (i) whether moving from non-night work to night work is associated with the development of CMD, (ii) the extent to which moving back to non-night work biases this association and (iii) whether moving from night to non-night work is associated with the recovery from CMD. RESULTS: According to logistic regression with generalized estimating equation and without bias-correction, changing to night work was not associated with the odds of acquiring CMD [odds ratio (OR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82–1.30]. However, night workers with CMD had higher odds of recovery from CMD when changing to non-night work compared to continuing night work (1.99, 95% CI 1.20–3.28). When night workers developed CMD, the odds of moving back to non-night work increased by 68%. In analyses corrected for this bias, changing from non-night to night work was associated with a 1.25-fold (95% CI 1.03–1.52) increased odds of acquiring CMD. CONCLUSIONS: A change from non-night to night work may increase the risk of CMD, while moving back from night to non-night work increased recovery from CMD.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine whether changes in work shifts and shift intensity are related to changes in difficulties to fall asleep, fatigue, and sleep length. METHODS: Questionnaire responses of hospital employees (N=7727, 93% women) in 2008, 2012, 2014 and 2015 were linked to daily-based records of working hours during three months preceding each survey. We used conditional logistic regression and longitudinal fixed-effects analyses to investigate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each 25% within-individual change in the proportion of working hour characteristics in relation to changes in fatigue, difficulties to fall asleep, and 24-hour sleep length. RESULTS: Change in night but not in morning or evening shifts was associated with parallel changes in odds for longer sleep length (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.28–1.64) and fatigue during free days (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.16–1.64). Similarly, short shift intervals and having >2 but not >4 consecutive night shifts were associated with increased odds of fatigue during work and difficulties to fall asleep (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.19–1.72 and OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05–1.19, respectively). Among workers aged ≥50 years, the associations were the strongest between night shifts and longer sleep (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.52–3.81) and between higher proportion of short shift intervals and fatigue during free days (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.10–2.54). CONCLUSIONS: Among shift workers with fatigue or sleep problems, decreasing the proportion of night shifts and quick returns and giving preference to quickly forward-rotating shift systems may reduce fatigue.

OBJECTIVES: This systematic review and meta-analysis combined published study-level data and unpublished individual-participant data with the aim of quantifying the relation between long working hours and the onset of depressive symptoms. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase for published prospective cohort studies and included available cohorts with unpublished individual-participant data. We used a random-effects meta-analysis to calculate summary estimates across studies. RESULTS: We identified ten published cohort studies and included unpublished individual-participant data from 18 studies. In the majority of cohorts, long working hours was defined as working ≥55 hours per week. In multivariable-adjusted meta-analyses of 189 729 participants from 35 countries [96 275 men, 93 454 women, follow-up ranging from 1–5 years, 21 747 new-onset cases), there was an overall association of 1.14 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.25] between long working hours and the onset of depressive symptoms, with significant evidence of heterogeneity (I^2=45.1%, P=0.004). A moderate association between working hours and depressive symptoms was found in Asian countries (1.50, 95% CI 1.13–2.01), a weaker association in Europe (1.11, 95% CI 1.00–1.22), and no association in North America (0.97, 95% CI 0.70–1.34) or Australia (0.95, 95% CI 0.70–1.29). Differences by other characteristics were small. CONCLUSIONS: This observational evidence suggests a moderate association between long working hours and onset of depressive symptoms in Asia and a small association in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for long-term sickness absence. METHODS: Survey responses on work- and lifestyle-related questions from 65 775 public-sector employees were linked to sickness absence records to develop a prediction score for medically-certified sickness absence lasting >9 days and ≥90 days. The score was externally validated using data from an independent population-based cohort of 13 527 employees. For both sickness absence outcomes, a full model including 46 candidate predictors was reduced to a parsimonious model using least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator (LASSO) regression. Predictive performance of the model was evaluated using C-index and calibration plots. RESULTS: Variance explained in ≥90-day sickness absence by the full model was 12.5%. In the parsimonious model, the predictors included self-rated health (linear and quadratic term), depression, sex, age (linear and quadratic), socioeconomic position, previous sickness absences, number of chronic diseases, smoking, shift work, working night shift, and quadratic terms for body mass index and Jenkins sleep scale. The discriminative ability of the score was good (C-index 0.74 in internal and 0.73 in external validation). Calibration plots confirmed high correspondence between the predicted and observed risk. In >9-day sickness absence, the full model explained 15.2% of the variance explained, but the C-index of the parsimonious model was poor (

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine occupational class differences in working more than six months beyond the mandatory retirement age and factors that may contribute to these differences. METHODS: The study comprised a prospective cohort study of a total of 5331 Finnish municipal employees (73% women) who were not on work disability pension and reached the age eligible for old-age pension in 2005–2011. Occupational class included four categories: managers and professionals, lower grade non-manual, skilled manual, and elementary occupations. Survey responses while at work were linked to national health and pension registers. RESULTS: A total of 921 participants (17.3%) worked beyond the pensionable age. Compared with elementary workers, skilled manual workers had a similar probability [gender-adjusted risk ratio (RR) 0.95, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.72–1.23] while lower grade non-manual workers had a 2.03-fold (95% CI 1.59–2.58), and managers and professionals had a 1.79-fold (95% CI 1.41–2.27) probability of working beyond the pensionable age. Adjustment for physical workload (32.0% in lower non-manual, 36.7% in managers and professionals), work time control (20.4% and 11.4%) and perceived work ability (16.5% and 29.1%) contributed to the largest attenuation for these associations. Analyses using a counterfactual approach suggested greater mediated effects for physical workload and work time control than those observed in traditional mediation analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Employees with higher occupational classes are two times more likely to continue working beyond the retirement age compared to those with lower occupational classes. A large proportion of these differences were explained by having physically light job, better work time control, and better self-rated work ability among employees with high occupational class.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the length of sickness absence and sustained return to work (SRTW) and the predictors of SRTW in depression, anxiety disorders, intervertebral disc disorders, and back pain in a population-based cohort of employees in the Finnish public sector. METHODS: We linked data from employers’ registers and four national population registers. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis with a cluster option was applied. SRTW was defined as the end of the sickness benefit period not followed by a recurrent sickness benefit period in 30 days. RESULTS: For depression, the median time to SRTW was 46 and 38 days among men and women, respectively. For anxiety disorders, the figures were 24 and 22 days, for intervertebral disc disorders, 42 and 41 days, and, for back pain, 21 and 22 days among men and women respectively. Higher age and the persistence of the health problem predicted longer time to SRTW throughout the diagnostic categories. Comorbid conditions predicted longer time to SRTW in depression and back pain among women. CONCLUSIONS: This large cohort study adds scientific evidence on the length of sickness absence and SRTW in four important diagnostic categories among public sector employees in Finland. Further research taking into account, eg, features of the work environment is suggested. Recommendations on the length of sickness absence at this point should be based on expert opinion and supplemented with research findings.

Abstract Background Retirement is a major life transition affecting health behaviors. The aim of this study was to examine within-individual changes in body mass index (BMI) during transition from full-time work to statutory retirement by sex and physical work characteristics. Methods A multiwave cohort study repeated every 4 years and data linkage to records from retirement registers. Participants were 5426 Finnish public-sector employees who retired on a statutory basis in 2000–2011 and who reported their body weight one to three times prior to (w−3, w−2, w−1), and one to three times after (w+1, w+2, w+3) retirement. Results During the 4-year retirement transition (w+1, vs. w−1) men showed decline in BMI, which was most marked among men with sedentary work (−0.18 kg/m2, 95% CI −.30 to −0.05). In contrast, BMI increased during retirement transition in women and was most marked among women with diverse (0.14 kg/m2, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.20) or physically heavy work (0.31 kg/m2, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.45). Physical activity during leisure time or commuting to work, alcohol consumption or smoking did not explain the observed changes during retirement transition. Conclusions In this study statutory retirement was associated with small changes in BMI. Weight loss was most visible in men retiring from sedentary jobs and weight gain in women retiring from diverse and physically heavy jobs.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the individual, joint and interactive effects of job strain and informal caregiving on long-term sickness absence with special attention to gender differences. METHODS: The study comprised a prospective cohort study of 6798 working adults from France, 14 727 from Finland, and 5275 from the UK. A total of 26 800 participants, age 52 (interquartile range 47–56) years participated in the study. Job strain was assessed using the demand–control model. Informal caregiving was defined as care for a sick, disabled, or elderly person. Long-term sickness absence spells defined as absence >14 consecutive days were registered during two years follow-up. We used recurrent-events Cox regression in random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: A total of 12% men and 21% women had ≥1 long-term sickness absence spell. Among women, both high job strain [hazard ratio (HR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.00–1.17] and informal caregiving (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04–1.23) were associated with a modestly higher risk of sickness absence. Women doubly exposed to high job strain and informal caregiving also showed a moderately higher risk of sickness absence (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.03–1.41), but the excess risk was not more than expected from joint exposure to caregiving and job strain. Neither job strain nor informal caregiving predicted sickness absence for men. CONCLUSIONS: High job strain and informal caregiving predicted long-term sickness absence among women. However there was no noticeable interaction in the presence of both exposures.

Summary: Background: Clinical guidelines suggest preventive interventions such as statin therapy for individuals with a high estimated 10-year risk of major cardiovascular events. For those with a low or intermediate estimated risk, risk-factor screenings are recommended at 5-year intervals; this interval is based on expert opinion rather than on direct research evidence. Using longitudinal data on the progression of cardiovascular disease risk over time, we compared different screening intervals in terms of timely detection of high-risk individuals, cardiovascular events prevented, and health-care costs. Methods: We used data from participants in the British Whitehall II study (aged 40–64 years at baseline) who had repeated biomedical screenings at 5-year intervals and linked these data to electronic health records between baseline (Aug 7, 1991, to May 10, 1993) and June 30, 2015. We estimated participants' 10-year risk of a major cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, cardiac death, and fatal or non-fatal stroke) using the revised Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) calculator. We used multistate Markov modelling to estimate optimum screening intervals on the basis of progression rates from low-risk and intermediate-risk categories to the high-risk category (ie, ≥7·5% 10-year risk of a major cardiovascular event). Our assessment criteria included person-years spent in a high-risk category before detection, the number of major cardiovascular events prevented and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, and screening costs. Findings: Of 6964 participants (mean age 50·0 years [SD 6·0] at baseline) with 152 700 person-years of follow-up (mean follow-up 22·0 years [SD 5·0]), 1686 participants progressed to the high-risk category and 617 had a major cardiovascular event. With the 5-year screening intervals, participants spent 7866 (95% CI 7130–8658) person-years unrecognised in the high-risk group. For individuals in the low, intermediate-low, and intermediate-high risk categories, 21 alternative risk category-based screening intervals outperformed the 5-yearly screening protocol. Screening intervals at 7 years, 4 years, and 1 year for those in the low, intermediate-low, and intermediate-high-risk category would reduce the number of person-years spent unrecognised in the high-risk group by 62% (95% CI 57–66; 4894 person-years), reduce the number of major cardiovascular events by 8% (7–9; 49 events), and raise 44 QALYs (40–49) for the study population. Interpretation: In terms of timely preventive interventions, the 5-year screening intervals were unnecessarily frequent for low-risk individuals and insufficiently frequent for intermediate-risk individuals. Screening intervals based on risk-category-specific progression rates would perform better in terms of preventing major cardiovascular disease events and improving cost-effectiveness. Funding: Medical Research Council, British Heart Association, National Institutes on Aging, NordForsk, Academy of Finland.

OBJECTIVES: Work-related stress has been linked to increased risk of disability pensioning, but the association between perceived justice of managerial behavior and decision-making processes at the workplace (ie, organizational justice) and risk of disability pensioning remains unknown. We examined the associations of organizational justice and its relational and procedural components with all-cause and diagnosis-specific disability pensions with repeated measures of justice. METHODS: Data from 24 895 employees responding to repeated surveys on organizational justice in 2000–2002 and 2004 were linked to the records of a national register for disability pensions from 2005–2011. Associations of long-term organizational justice (average score from two surveys) with disability pensions were studied with Cox proportional hazard regression adjusted for demographics, socioeconomic status, baseline health and health risk behavior, stratified by sex. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 6.4 years, 1658 (7%) employees were granted disability pension (282 due to depression; 816 due to musculoskeletal diseases). Higher organizational justice was associated with a lower risk of disability pensioning [hazard ratio (HR) per one-unit increase in 5-point justice scale 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.94)]. For disability pension due to depression and musculoskeletal diseases, the corresponding HR were 0.77 (95% CI 0.65–0.91) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.79–0.97), respectively. Adjustment for job strain and effort–reward imbalance attenuated the HR by 20–80%. CONCLUSIONS: Supervisors` fair treatment of employees and fair decision-making in the organizations are associated with a decreased risk of disability pensioning from all-causes, depression and musculoskeletal diseases. These associations may be attributable to a wider range of favorable work characteristics.

Summary: Background: Lifestyle factors influence the risk of morbidity and mortality, but the extent to which they are associated with employees' absence from work due to illness is unclear. We examined the relative contributions of smoking, alcohol consumption, high body-mass index, and low physical activity to diagnosis-specific sickness absence. Methods: We did a multicohort study with individual-level data of participants of four cohorts from the UK, France, and Finland. Participants' responses to a lifestyle survey were linked to records of sickness absence episodes, typically lasting longer than 9 days; for each diagnostic category, the outcome was the total number of sickness absence days per year. We estimated the associations between lifestyle factors and sickness absence by calculating rate ratios for the number of sickness absence days per year and combining cohort-specific estimates with meta-analysis. The criteria for assessing the evidence included the strength of association, consistency across cohorts, robustness to adjustments and multiple testing, and impact assessment by use of population attributable fractions (PAF), with both internal lifestyle factor prevalence estimates and those obtained from European populations (PAFexternal). Findings: For 74 296 participants, during 446 478 person-years at risk, the most common diagnoses for sickness absence were musculoskeletal diseases (70·9 days per 10 person-years), depressive disorders (26·5 days per 10 person-years), and external causes (such as injuries and poisonings; 12·8 days per 10 person-years). Being overweight (rate ratio [adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and chronic disease at baseline] 1·30, 95% CI 1·21–1·40; PAFexternal 8·9%) and low physical activity (1·23, 1·14–1·34; 7·8%) were associated with absences due to musculoskeletal diseases; heavy episodic drinking (1·90, 1·41–2·56; 15·2%), smoking (1·70, 1·42–2·03; 11·8%), low physical activity (1·67, 1·42–1·96; 19·8%), and obesity (1·38, 1·11–1·71; 5·6%) were associated with absences due to depressive disorders; heavy episodic drinking (1·64, 1·33–2·03; 11·3%), obesity (1·48, 1·27–1·72; 6·6%), smoking (1·35, 1·20–1·53; 6·3%), and being overweight (1·20, 1·08–1·33; 6·2%) were associated with absences due to external causes; obesity (1·82, 1·40–2·36; 11·0%) and smoking (1·60, 1·30–1·98; 10·3%) were associated with absences due to circulatory diseases; low physical activity (1·37, 1·25–1·49; 12·0%) and smoking (1·27, 1·16–1·40; 4·9%) were associated with absences due to respiratory diseases; and obesity (1·67, 1·34–2·07; 9·7%) was associated with absences due to digestive diseases. Interpretation: Lifestyle factors are associated with sickness absence due to several diseases, but observational data cannot determine the nature of these associations. Future studies should investigate the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle interventions aimed at reducing sickness absence and the use of information on lifestyle for identifying groups at risk. Funding: NordForsk, British Medical Research Council, Academy of Finland, Helsinki Institute of Life Sciences, and Economic and Social Research Council.

Summary: Background: Obesity increases the risk of several chronic diseases, but the extent to which the obesity-related loss of disease-free years varies by lifestyle category and across socioeconomic groups is unclear. We estimated the number of years free from major non-communicable diseases in adults who are overweight and obese, compared with those who are normal weight. Methods: We pooled individual-level data on body-mass index (BMI) and non-communicable diseases from men and women with no initial evidence of these diseases in European cohort studies from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis in Working Populations consortium. BMI was assessed at baseline (1991–2008) and non-communicable diseases (incident type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) were ascertained via linkage to records from national health registries, repeated medical examinations, or self-report. Disease-free years from age 40 years to 75 years associated with underweight (BMI

Established in 2008 and comprising over 60 researchers, the IPD-Work (individual-participant data meta-analysis in working populations) consortium is a collaborative research project that uses pre-defined meta-analyses of individual-participant data from multiple cohort studies representing a range of countries. The aim of the consortium is to estimate reliably the associations of work-related psychosocial factors with chronic diseases, disability, and mortality. Our findings are highly cited by the occupational health, epidemiology, and clinical medicine research community. However, some of the IPD-Work’s findings have also generated disagreement as they challenge the importance of job strain as a major target for coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention, this is reflected in the critical discussion paper by Choi et al (1). In this invited reply to Choi et al, we aim to (i) describe how IPD-Work seeks to advance research on associations between work-related psychosocial risk factors and health; (ii) demonstrate as unfounded Choi et al’s assertion that IPD-Work has underestimated associations between job strain and health endpoints; these include the dichotomous measurement of job strain, potential underestimation of the population attributable risk (PAR) of job strain for CHD, and policy implications arising from the findings of the IPD-Work consortium; and (iii) outline general principles for designing evidence-based policy and prevention from good-quality evidence, including future directions for research on psychosocial factors at work and health. In addition, we highlight some problems with Choi et al’s approach.

OBJECTIVES: Epidemiological studies suggest that long working hours and shift work may increase the risk of chronic diseases, but the “toxic” elements remain unclear due to crude assessment of working time patterns based on self-reports. In this methodological paper, we present and evaluate objective register-based algorithms for assessment of working time patterns and validate a method to retrieve standard payroll data on working hours from the employer electronic records. METHODS: Detailed working hour records from employers’ registers were obtained for 12 391 nurses and physicians, a total 14.5 million separate work shifts from 2008–2013. We examined the quality and validity of the obtained register data and designed 29 algorithms characterizing four potentially health-relevant working time patterns: (i) length of the working hours; (ii) time of the day; (iii) shift intensity; and (iv) social aspects of the working hours. RESULTS: The collection of the company-based register data was feasible and the retrieved data matched with the originally published shift plans. The transferred working time records included

Summary: Background: Although overweight and obesity have been studied in relation to individual cardiometabolic diseases, their association with risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is poorly understood. Here we aimed to establish the risk of incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity (ie, at least two from: type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke) in adults who are overweight and obese compared with those who are a healthy weight. Methods: We pooled individual-participant data for BMI and incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity from 16 prospective cohort studies from the USA and Europe. Participants included in the analyses were 35 years or older and had data available for BMI at baseline and for type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke at baseline and follow-up. We excluded participants with a diagnosis of diabetes, coronary heart disease, or stroke at or before study baseline. According to WHO recommendations, we classified BMI into categories of healthy (20·0–24·9 kg/m2), overweight (25·0–29·9 kg/m2), class I (mild) obesity (30·0–34·9 kg/m2), and class II and III (severe) obesity (≥35·0 kg/m2). We used an inclusive definition of underweight (

Summary: Background: The associations of social isolation and loneliness with premature mortality are well known, but the risk factors linking them remain unclear. We sought to identify risk factors that might explain the increased mortality in socially isolated and lonely individuals. Methods: We used prospective follow-up data from the UK Biobank cohort study to assess self-reported isolation (a three-item scale) and loneliness (two questions). The main outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We calculated the percentage of excess risk mediated by risk factors to assess the extent to which the associations of social isolation and loneliness with mortality were attributable to differences between isolated and lonely individuals and others in biological (body-mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and handgrip strength), behavioural (smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity), socioeconomic (education, neighbourhood deprivation, and household income), and psychological (depressive symptoms and cognitive capacity) risk factors. Findings: 466 901 men and women (mean age at baseline 56·5 years [SD 8·1]) were included in the analyses, with a mean follow-up of 6·5 years (SD 0·8). The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality for social isolation compared with no social isolation was 1·73 (95% CI 1·65–1·82) after adjustment for age, sex, ethnic origin, and chronic disease (ie, minimally adjusted), and was 1·26 (95% CI 1·20–1·33) after further adjustment for socioeconomic factors, health-related behaviours, depressive symptoms, biological factors, cognitive performance, and self-rated health (ie, fully adjusted). The minimally adjusted hazard ratio for mortality risk related to loneliness was 1·38 (95% CI 1·30–1·47), which reduced to 0·99 (95% CI 0·93–1·06) after full adjustment for baseline risks. Interpretation: Isolated and lonely people are at increased risk of death. Health policies addressing risk factors such as adverse socioeconomic conditions, unhealthy lifestyle, and lower mental wellbeing might reduce excess mortality among the isolated and the lonely. Funding: Academy of Finland, NordForsk, and the UK Medical Research Council.

OBJECTIVES: Research on temporary employment as a risk factor for work disability due to depression is mixed, and few studies have measured work disability outcome in detail. We separately examined the associations of temporary employment with (i) the onset of work disability due to depression, (ii) the length of disability episodes, and (iii) the recurrence of work disability, taking into account the possible effect modification of sociodemographic factors. METHODS: We linked the prospective cohort study data of 107 828 Finnish public sector employees to national registers on work disability (>9 days) due to depression from January 2005 to December 2011. RESULTS: Disability episodes were longer among temporary than permanent employees after adjustment for age, sex, level of education, chronic somatic disease, and history of mental/behavioral disorders [cumulative odds ratio (COR) 1.37, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.25–51). The association between temporary employment and the length of depression-related disability episodes was more pronounced among participants with a low educational level (COR 1.95, 95% CI 1.54–2.48) and older employees (>52 years; COR 3.67, 95% CI 2.83–4.76). The association was weaker in a subgroup of employees employed for ≥50% of the follow-up period (95% of the original sample). Temporary employment was not associated with the onset or recurrence of depression-related work disability. CONCLUSIONS: Temporary employment is associated with slower return to work, indicated by longer depression-related disability episodes, especially among older workers and those with a low level of education. Continuous employment might protect temporary employees from prolonged work disability.

OBJECTIVES: Job strain has previously been shown to predict disability pension, but it is unknown whether effort-reward imbalance (ERI), another major stress model, is also associated with disability pension. METHODS: We examined ERI as a risk factor for diagnosis-specific disability pension in a cohort of 51 874 public-sector employees in Finland. To control for reporting bias, work unit-level scores of ERI (based on the survey responses of 35 260 employees in 2000–2002) were constructed and linked to all eligible employees. A sub-cohort of the respondents was analyzed also with individual-level ERI. Disability pension data were derived from national pension registers with no loss to follow-up. The outcomes were all-cause disability pension and disability pension due to depression, musculoskeletal diseases, and ischemic heart diseases (IHD). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models (adjusted for sociodemographic factors, baseline health, and work-related characteristics) were used for analyses. RESULTS: During a mean 8.9 years of follow-up, 4542 participants were granted disability pension. An increased risk for disability pension due to depression was detected for both high work unit- and individual-level ERI [hazard ratio (HR) 1.63, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.31–2.04 and HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.51–2.40, respectively]. High individual-level ERI increased the risk of disability pension due to musculoskeletal diseases (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.13–1.53), but no association was observed for work unit-level ERI (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.88–1.19). ERI was not associated with disability pension due to IHD. CONCLUSION: The present study showed a consistent association between high ERI and an increased risk of disability pension due to depression.

OBJECTIVES: Road traffic noise is a common environmental nuisance, which has been thought to increase the risk of many types of health problems. However, population-level evidence often remains scarce. This study examined whether road traffic noise is associated with self-rated health and use of psychotropic medication in a cohort of public sector employees. METHODS: Data are from the Finnish Public Sector Study cohort. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to link modeled outdoor road traffic noise levels (L_den) to residential addresses of 15 611 men and women with cross-sectional survey responses on self-rated health and register-based information on the use of antidepressants, anxiolytics, and hypnotics. High trait anxiety scores were used to identify potentially vulnerable individuals. The analyses were run with logistic regression models adjusting for individual and area-level variables. All participants were blind to the aim of the study. Results Mean level of road traffic noise at participants’ home addresses was 52 decibels (dB) (standard deviation 8.1). Noise level >60 dB versus ≤45 dB was associated with poor self-rated health in men [odds ratio (OR) 1.58, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.14–2.21]. Further stratification revealed that the association was evident only among men with high trait anxiety scores (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.28–3.89). No association was found with psychotropic medication use or among women. CONCLUSION: Exposure to road traffic noise was not associated with increased use of psychotropic medication, although it was associated with weakened self-rated health among men.

OBJECTIVE: The main aims of this longitudinal study were to (i) examine associations between changes in economic difficulties and health functioning among middle-aged employees and (ii) assess whether the associations remained after considering conventional domains of socioeconomic position. The associations were tested in two European welfare state occupational cohorts to strengthen the evidence base and improve generalizability. METHODS: Data came from two cohorts: the Finnish Helsinki Health Study (baseline 2000–2002, follow-up 2007, N=6328) and the British Whitehall II Study (baseline 1997–1999, follow-up 2003–2004, N=4350). Responses to the survey item “finding it hard to afford adequate food and clothes and pay bills” repeated at baseline and follow-up were used to examine persistent, increasing, and decreasing economic difficulties. Poor physical and mental health functioning were denoted as being in the lowest quartile of the Short Form 36 physical and mental component summary. Logistic regression analyses were adjusted for sex, age, childhood economic difficulties, household income at baseline and follow-up, employment status at follow-up, and baseline health functioning. RESULTS: We observed strong sex- and age-adjusted associations between increasing [odds ratio (OR) range 1.69–2.96] and persistent (OR range 2.54–3.21) economic difficulties and poorer physical and mental health functioning in both British and Finnish occupational cohorts. These associations remained after full adjustments. Those reporting decreasing difficulties over follow-up also had poorer functioning (OR range 1.30–1.61) compared to those who did not have difficulties at baseline, possibly reflecting residual effects of economic difficulties at baseline. CONCLUSION: Changes in economic difficulties are associated with poorer physical and mental health functioning independent of income, employment status, and baseline health functioning.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the co-occurrence of obesity and sleep problems among employees and workplaces. METHODS: We obtained data from 39 873 men and women working in 3040 workplaces in 2000–2002 (the Finnish Public Sector Study). Individual- and workplace-level characteristics were considered as correlates of obesity and sleep problems, which were modelled simultaneously using a multivariate, multilevel approach. RESULTS: Of the participants, 11% were obese and 23% reported sleep problems. We found a correlation between obesity and sleep problems at both the individual [correlation coefficient 0.048, covariance 0.047, standard error (SE) 0.005) and workplace (correlation coefficient 0.619, covariance 0.068, SE 0.011) level. The latter, but not the former, correlation remained after adjustment for individual- and workplace-level confounders, such as age, sex, socioeconomic status, shift work, alcohol consumption, job strain, and proportion of temporary employees and manual workers at the workplace. CONCLUSIONS: Obese employees and those with sleep problems tend to cluster in the same workplaces, suggesting that, in addition to targeting individuals at risk, interventions to reduce obesity and sleep problems might benefit from identifying “risky” workplaces.