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Background: Data-driven classification of long-term psychotic symptom trajectories and identification of associated risk factors could assist treatment planning and improve long-term outcomes in psychosis. However, few studies have used this approach, and knowledge about underlying mechanisms is limited. Here, we identify long-term psychotic symptom trajectories and investigate the role of illness-concurrent cannabis and stimulant use., Methods: 192 participants with first-episode psychosis were followed up after 10 years. Psychotic symptom trajectories were estimated using growth mixture modeling and tested for associations with baseline characteristics and cannabis and stimulant use during the follow-up (FU) period., Results: Four trajectories emerged: (1) Stable Psychotic Remission (54.2 %), (2) Delayed Psychotic Remission (15.6 %), (3) Psychotic Relapse (7.8 %), (4) Persistent Psychotic Symptoms (22.4 %). At baseline, all unfavorable trajectories (2-4) were characterized by more schizophrenia diagnoses, higher symptom severity, and longer duration of untreated psychosis. Compared to the Stable Psychotic Remission trajectory, unstable trajectories (2,3) showed distinct associations with cannabis/stimulant use during the FU-period, with dose-dependent effects for cannabis but not stimulants (Delayed Psychotic Remission: higher rates of frequent cannabis and stimulant use during the first 5 FU-years; Psychotic Relapse: higher rates of sporadic stimulant use throughout the entire FU-period). The Persistent Psychosis trajectory was less clearly linked to substance use during the FU-period., Conclusions: The risk for an adverse long-term course could be mitigated by treatment of substance use, where particular attention should be devoted to preventing the use of stimulants while the use reduction of cannabis may already yield positive effects., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Early identification of treatment non-response in first-episode psychosis (FEP) is essential to outcome. Despite indications that exposure to childhood trauma (CT) can have adverse effects on illness severity, its impact on treatment non-response and the interplay with other pre-treatment characteristics is sparsely investigated. We use a lack of clinical recovery as an early indicator of treatment resistance to investigate the relationship between CT and treatment resistance status at one-year follow-up and the potential mediation of this effect by other pre-treatment characteristics., Methods: This prospective one-year follow-up study involved 141 participants recruited in their first year of treatment for a schizophrenia-spectrum disorder. We investigated clinical status, childhood trauma (CT), premorbid adjustment (PA), and duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) at baseline and clinical status at one-year follow-up. Ordinal regression analyses were conducted to investigate how PA and DUP affected the relationship between CT and one-year outcome in FEP., Results: 45 % of the FEP sample reported moderate to severe CT, with significantly higher levels of CT in the early treatment resistant group compared to participants with full or partial early recovery. Ordinal regression analysis showed that CT was a significant predictor of being in a more severe outcome group (OR = 4.59). There was a partial mediation effect of PA and a full mediation effect of DUP on the effect of CT on outcome group membership., Discussion: Our findings indicate that reducing treatment delays may mitigate the adverse effects of CT on clinical outcomes and support the inclusion of broad trauma assessment in FEP services., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest We hereby declare that we have no conflicts of interest or financial relationships to disclose. The funding bodies were not involved in the data analysis, writing, or submission of this manuscript for publication., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Aberrant belief updating due to misestimation of uncertainty and an increased perception of the world as volatile (i.e., unstable) has been found in autism and psychotic disorders. Pupil dilation tracks events that warrant belief updating, likely reflecting the adjustment of neural gain. However, whether subclinical autistic or psychotic symptoms affect this adjustment and how they relate to learning in volatile environments remains to be unraveled. We investigated the relationship between behavioral and pupillometric markers of subjective volatility (i.e., experience of the world as unstable), autistic traits, and psychotic-like experiences in 52 neurotypical adults with a probabilistic reversal learning task. Computational modeling revealed that participants with higher psychotic-like experience scores overestimated volatility in low-volatile task periods. This was not the case for participants scoring high on autistic-like traits, who instead showed a diminished adaptation of choice-switching behavior in response to risk. Pupillometric data indicated that individuals with higher autistic- or psychotic-like trait and experience scores differentiated less between events that warrant belief updating and those that do not when volatility was high. These findings are in line with misestimation of uncertainty accounts of psychosis and autism spectrum disorders and indicate that aberrancies are already present at the subclinical level., (© 2023. The Author(s).)