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Objectives: This study aims to review studies developing or validating a prediction model for transition to psychosis in individuals meeting At Risk Mental State (ARMS) criteria focussing on predictors that can be obtained as part of standard clinical practice. Prediction of transition is crucial to facilitating identification of patients who would benefit from cognitive behavioural therapy and, conversely, those that would benefit from less costly and less-intensive regular mental state monitoring. The review aims to determine whether prediction models rated as low risk of bias exist and, if not, what further research is needed within the field. Design: Bibliographic databases (PsycINFO, Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL) were searched using index terms relating to the clinical field and prognosis from 1994, the initial year of the first prospective study using ARMS criteria, to July 2024. Screening of titles, abstracts, and subsequently full texts was conducted by two reviewers independently using predefined criteria. Study quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASessment Tool (PROBAST). Setting: Studies in any setting were included. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcome for the review was the identification of prediction models considering transition risk and a summary of their risk of bias. Results: Forty-eight unique prediction models considering risk of transition to psychosis were identified. Variables found to be consistently important when predicting transition were age, gender, global functioning score, trait vulnerability, and unusual thought content. PROBAST criteria categorised four unique prediction models as having an overall low-risk bias. Other studies were insufficiently powered for the number of candidate predictors or lacking enough information to draw a conclusion regarding risk of bias. Conclusions: Two of the 48 identified prediction models were developed using current best practice statistical methodology, validated their model in independent data, and presented low risk of bias overall in line with the PROBAST guidelines. Any new prediction model built to evaluate the risk of transition to psychosis in people meeting ARMS criteria should be informed by the latest statistical methodology and adhere to the TRIPOD reporting guidelines to ensure that clinical practice is informed by the best possible evidence. External validation of such models should be carefully planned particularly considering generalisation across different countries. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPEROFILES/108488%5fPROTOCOL%5f20191127.pdf , identifier CRD42018108488. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing effective interventions for preventing first episode psychosis have been an important research focus in the last decade. Cognitive behavioral therapy is a currently indicated treatment for people at ultra-high risk of psychosis, however, access and resource issues limit its delivery within the NHS. Treatments which partial out potential active ingredients and are aimed at a range of psychological difficulties seen within this population have the potential to be more efficacious and efficient. We conducted a single-arm exploratory pilot trial, designed to investigate the feasibility and acceptability of Metacognitive therapy for individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) of developing psychosis. Trial uptake was good, with 11 out of 12 referred individuals meeting for an eligibility assessment (one individual was excluded prior to the assessment). Of these, 10 individuals were eligible and included in the trial. Retention to treatment was high with 80% treatment adherence gained and an overall average of 8 sessions completed. All participants were offered follow-up assessments immediately post-treatment and at 6 months, which comprised measures of psychotic like experiences, anxiety and depression, and metacognitive processes implicated in the model. Retention to the post-treatment (12-week) follow-up was good, with 80% completion; however retention to the 6-month follow-up was lower at 60%. Clinically significant results were observed in psychotic like experiences, anxiety, depression and functioning with medium to large effect sizes. Measures related to beliefs and processes targeted within MCT showed clinically significant change with medium to large effect sizes. Our results suggest that MCT based upon a specific metacognitive model for individuals meeting ARMS criteria may be an important treatment target and warrants further attention. Limitations and possible focuses for future research are discussed. Registration: ISRCTN53190465 http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN53190465. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clinicians are often sceptical about offering cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) to individuals experiencing thought disorder. This view may result from perceived difficulties in clients being able to learn and better understand their experiences through verbal dialogue. However, it may also partly be due to the lack of clear guidance on how to address and work with these difficulties within therapy. This paper provides recommendations for delivering CBT in individuals experiencing thought disorder. It considers how clinicians might conduct their cognitive behavioural assessment, formulation, and intervention, targeting unhelpful appraisals and behaviour, and generating insight. The aim is to better disseminate the techniques sometimes applied in clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Research suggests that core schemas are important in both the development and maintenance of psychosis. Aims: The aim of the study was to investigate and compare core schemas in four groups along the continuum of psychosis and examine the relationships between schemas and positive psychotic symptomatology. Method: A measure of core schemas was distributed to 20 individuals experiencing first-episode psychosis (FEP), 113 individuals with “at risk mental states” (ARMS), 28 participants forming a help-seeking clinical group (HSC), and 30 non-help-seeking individuals who endorse some psychotic-like experiences (NH). Results: The clinical groups scored significantly higher than the NH group for negative beliefs about self and about others. No significant effects of group on positive beliefs about others were found. For positive beliefs about the self, the NH group scored significantly higher than the clinical groups. Furthermore, negative beliefs about self and others were related to positive psychotic symptomatology and to distress related to those experiences. Conclusions: Negative evaluations of the self and others appear to be characteristic of the appraisals of people seeking help for psychosis and psychosis-like experiences. The results support the literature that suggests that self-esteem should be a target for intervention. Future research would benefit from including comparison groups of people experiencing chronic psychosis and people who do not have any psychotic-like experiences. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Aim There is evidence that psychotic-like phenomena can be detected within the general population and that psychotic experiences lie on a continuum that also spans affective states. We aimed to investigate comparisons of a first-episode psychosis group, an 'at-risk mental state group' and a help-seeking control group with non-patients to explore whether affective states lie on a continuum of psychosis. Method Measures of psychotic-like experiences, social anxiety and depression were administered to 20 patients experiencing first-episode psychosis ( FEP), 113 patients experiencing an 'at-risk' mental state ( ARMS), 28 patients who were help-seeking but not experiencing a FEP or ARMS ( HSC) and 30 non-clinical participants ( NC). Results For distress in relation to psychotic-like experiences, the FEP, ARMS and HSC groups scored significantly higher than the NC group for the perceptual abnormalities and non-bizarre ideas. In terms of severity of psychotic experiences, the FEP scored the highest, followed by the ARMS group, followed by the HSC and NC groups. The clinical groups scored significantly higher for depression than the non-clinical group. Interestingly, only the FEP and the ARMS groups scored significantly higher than non-patients for social anxiety. Conclusions These findings suggest that a psychosis continuum exists; however, this does not suggest that both psychosis and affective symptoms lie on the same continuum, rather it would appear the presence of such affective states that may affect help-seeking behaviour and clinical status. The implications of these findings for clinical practice are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A cognitive model of psychosis suggests that appraisals of psychoticlike experiences (PLEs), and the subsequent responses adopted, are responsible for the maintenance of distress and disability associated with psychosis. Aims: This study aimed to investigate whether it is possible to manipulate appraisals of an anomalous experience in people at risk of psychosis and whether this affects levels of distress. Method: Participants who had experienced an "at risk mental state" (ARMS) within the past year, were randomized to one of two groups and received either negative or neutral information pertaining to an anomalous experience (a card trick). Participants completed a questionnaire measuring PLEs, then completed pre and post measures of distress and anxiety in relation to the card trick. Participants were also asked to rate a series of psychotic or non-psychotic appraisals regarding how they thought the card trick worked. Results: Data analysis revealed that distress and anxiety were not related to the information group assigned (our experimental manipulation was unsuccessful). However, when analyzed as one group, higher conviction in non-psychotic appraisals was found to be related to lower levels of distress and state anxiety. Conclusions: The findings provide some validation for a relationship between appraisals and distress. Clinical implications, methodological limitations and possible future research directions are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been recent advances in the ability to identify people at high risk of developing psychosis. This has led to interest in the possibility of preventing the development of psychosis. A randomized controlled trial compared cognitive therapy (CT) over 6 months with monthly monitoring in 58 patients meeting criteria for ultrahigh risk of developing a first episode of psychosis. Participants were followed up over a 3-year period. Logistic regression demonstrated that CT significantly reduced likelihood of being prescribed antipsychotic medication over a 3-year period, but it did not affect transition to psychosis defined using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) or probable Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition diagnosis. However, exploratory analyses revealed that CT significantly reduced the likelihood of making progression to psychosis as defined on the PANSS over 3 years after controlling for baseline cognitive factors. Follow-up rate at 3 years was 47%. There appear to be enduring benefits of CT over the long term, suggesting that it is an efficacious intervention for people at high risk of developing psychosis. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Self-Regulatory Executive Function (S-REF) model assumes that unhelpful metacognitive coping strategies characterised by worry, rumination, threat monitoring and attempts to control thoughts, have a central role in psychological disorders and prolonged negative affect. Collectively, these strategies constitute the Cognitive Attentional Syndrome (CAS). This research aims to test whether a questionnaire designed to capture these responses (the CAS-1: Wells, 2009, p. 268) is a valid assessment tool in clinical psychosis, and to test whether activation of the CAS is associated with positive and negative outcomes. A sample of 60 people with psychosis completed a semi-structured interview about psychotic symptoms, the CAS-1 self-report measure and validated self-report measures of metacognitive beliefs, negative affect, quality of life and recovery. The CAS-1 demonstrated good internal consistency, concurrent validity and predictive validity. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that negative metacognitive beliefs predict negative affect, perceptions of recovery and quality of life in people with psychosis over and above psychotic symptoms. CAS-1 scores did not contribute additional variance in the final regression models. Implications for theory and clinical practice are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The study aims to establish the concordant validity of the Early Detection Primary Care Checklist (PCCL); a 20 item tool designed to help primary care practitioners identify young people in the early stages of psychosis. The checklist was completed by the referring practitioners of 176 young people referred to early detection teams across the UK. The concordant validity of the checklist was established by comparing screen results with a standardised psychiatric assessment for identifying young people who may be at a risk of developing psychosis (CAARMS). Preliminary analysis found that the simple checklist as originally conceived had excellent sensitivity (96%) but poor specificity (10%). Subsequent exploratory analysis led to the development of two better performing models for the combination of item responses to predict CAARMS outcomes. The first retained the use of all 20 checklist items and achieved sensitivity of 89% and specificity of 60%. The second retained six checklist items with p-values of 0.2 or above and achieved sensitivity of 88% and specificity of 47%. Although the initial checklist did not perform well as a screening tool the two models perform well in comparison to other, much longer, screening tools for this population. These tools are not intended as a diagnostic instrument; rather it has been designed as a bridge between primary care and specialist services and to build on the skills and knowledge already held by primary care practitioners. Following a consideration of the limitations of this study, the continued evaluation of the tools performance in practice is recommended. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Childhood adversity may increase risk of impaired social functioning across the continuum of psychosis. However, the pathways by which adversity dictates functional outcome remain underexplored. This study investigated the association between childhood adversity and social functioning, and the clinical and cognitive mediators of this relationship. Fifty-four clinical (20 chronic, 20 first episode, 14 at ultra-high risk) and 120 non-clinical participants completed standardised questionnaires, semi-structured interviews and tests of theory of mind ability. The authors used multiple group structural equation modelling to fit mediation models allowing for differential relationships between the clinical and non-clinical samples. When examining each pathway separately, depression, paranoia and anxious attachment mediated the effect of childhood adversity on social functioning. In a combined model, depression was the only significant mediating variable with greater adversity predicting lower mood across groups. Childhood adversity did not significantly predict theory of mind ability in any of the models. This is the first study to indicate that childhood adversity acts on social functioning by increasing levels of depression, suggesting a common mechanism across the spectrum of psychosis. Clinical interventions should target low mood in order to improve social functioning at all stages of psychotic disorder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background and objectives: Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for psychosis has been shown to be effective, but there are recent suggestions that it is less efficacious than initially thought. Metacognitive therapy (MCT), which focuses on metacognitive mechanisms, has led to positive results in other disorders, but has yet to be evaluated in people with schizophrenia spectrum diagnoses. This study evaluates the feasibility of MCT for people with psychotic disorders. Methods: Ten participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders received up to 12 sessions of MCT in an open trial. Outcomes included psychiatric symptoms measured using the PANSS, at baseline, 9 months (end of treatment) and at 12 months (follow-up), as well as dimensions of hallucinations and delusions, emotional dysfunction, self-rated recovery, social functioning and metacognitive beliefs. Results: T-tests and Wilcoxon's signed ranks tests revealed significant beneficial effects on several outcomes at end-of-treatment and follow-up. Cohen's d effect sizes were moderate to large (for PANSS total, d = 1.0 at end of treatment; d = 0.95 at follow-up). A response rate analysis found 50% and 40% of participants achieved at least a 25% reduction in PANSS total scores by end of therapy and follow-up, respectively. Exploratory analyses revealed that metacognitive beliefs significantly changed over treatment and follow-up periods. Limitations: This study had no control group and was not randomised; therefore, it is likely that effect sizes were inflated. Conclusions: This study provides preliminary evidence that MCT is a feasible treatment for people with psychosis. An adequately powered randomised controlled trial is warranted. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]