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Estimates of the energetic proton environment for a Mars mission are generally extrapolated from the solar proton observations at 1 AU. We find that solar particle events may be divided into two general classes. Events dominated by a near-sun injection of particles onto interplanetary magnetic field lines leading to the spacecraft position represent the "classical" solar particle event associated with solar activity. This class of event will scale in radial distance by the classical power law extrapolation. The extended-interplanetary-shock source generates a maximum flux as the shock passes the detection location. This class of event typically generates maximum fluence, but in this case, the flux and fluence will not scale in the classical manner with radial distance., (Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.)

The relativistic solar proton event of 6 November 1997 resulted in the first ground-level enhancement (GLE) of solar cycle 23. The earliest onset was around 1215 UT but was up to 15 minutes later at some neutron monitor locations. The time of maximum intensity also varied significantly over the world-wide neutron monitor network. The modeled particle distributions and spectra are presented. The apparent particle arrival direction is found to be largely consistent with propagation outward from the sun along interplanetary magnetic field lines., (c2002 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Solar cycle 22 had significant, large fluence, energetic particle events on a scale reminiscent of the 19th solar cycle. Examination of the characteristics of these large events suggests that some of the old concepts of spectral form, intensity-time envelope and energy extrapolations, used to estimate the dose from large events that occurred during previous solar cycles should be re-evaluated. There has also been a dramatic change in perspective regarding the source of solar protons observed in interplanetary space. Very large fluence events are associated with powerful fast interplanetary shocks. The elemental composition and charge state of these events is suggestive of a dominate source in the solar corona and not from a very hot plasma. Furthermore, there is a strong suggestion that the intensity-time profile observed in space is dominated by the connection of the observer to an interplanetary shock source rather than to a unique location near the surface of the sun. These concepts will be examined from the perspective of energetic particles contributing to the dose experienced by an astronaut on an interplanetary space mission., (Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.)

Large transient concentrations of nitrates in polar ice cores have been identified as the signature of some major solar proton fluence events between 1940 and 1991. We review this solar proton proxy identification technique using nitrate concentration measurements in ice cores from the Arctic and Antarctic. Using this identification technique we go back in time in an attempt to identify major solar proton events during the past several centuries. There is a very large nitrate increase corresponding to the Carrington flare of 1859 evident in the Arctic ice core. Other significant nitrate increases may indicate that major solar proton events occurred toward the end of the last century. The problems associated with this new technique of using nitrates as proxies to identify solar proton events are discussed.

There is a need to understand the calibration and response of the GOES solar particle detectors since the GOES data are being used to evaluate high energy solar particle events. We share some of our experience in utilizing these data in the analysis of solar particle ground-level events (GLEs). For the 29 September 1989 event, we have evaluated the solar proton and alpha particle spectral characteristics throughout the event. The results show that the solar cosmic ray spectrum is extremely hard at low energies with the magnitude of the slope increasing with increasing energy and with time.

The present study examines the effects of orbit progression on the exposures within a Space Station Freedom module in a 51.6-degree inclined orbit at 450 km. The storm evolution is modeled after the November 1960 event, and the solar proton flux evolution is taken from the August 1972 solar proton event. The effects of a strong magnetic shock, such as was observed during the October 1989 event, is also modeled. The statistics on hourly average storm fields for the last forty years reveal that the largest geomagnetic storms approach a Dst value of -500 nanotesla at the storm peak. Similarly, one of the largest satellite-measured proton flux (> 10 MeV) for space exposures is the event of August 1972. The effects of orbit progression (advance of the line of nodes) is examined for the above conditions to study the variation of exposures under differing times of occurrence of the solar proton peak intensity, attainment of geomagnetic storm maximum, and the location of the line of nodes of the last geomagnetically protected orbit. The impact of the inherent inhomogeneity of the space station module is examined as a limiting factor on exposure with regard to the need of additional parasitic shielding.

The solar activity and geomagnetic storm events of March and June 1991 were associated with the appearance of an enhanced particle flux in the trapped radiation belts as discovered by the CRRES satellite observations and later measured by shuttle radiation detectors. The solar-interplanetary conditions associated with these events appear to be a major sequence of activity near the sun's central meridian generating powerful fast interplanetary shocks resulting in major perturbations to the magnetosphere. The solar-interplanetary events in 1991 are discussed and compared to similar activity in the past such as the events in February 1986, August 1972, July 1961, November 1960, and July 1959.

We find that the heliolongitudinal distribution of solar flares associated with earth-observed solar proton events is a function of the particle measurement energy. For solar proton events containing fluxes with energies exceeding 1 GeV, we find a Gaussian distribution about the probable root of the Archimedean spiral favorable propagation path leading from the earth to the sun. This distribution is modified as the detection threshold is lowered. For > 100 MeV solar proton events with fluxes > or = 10 protons (cm2-sec-ster)-1 we find the distribution becomes wider with a secondary peak near the solar central meridian. When the threshold is lowered to 10 MeV the distribution further evolves. For > 10 MeV solar proton events having a flux threshold at 10 protons (cm2-sec-ster)-1 the distribution can be considered to be a composite of two Gaussians. One distribution is centered about the probable root of the Archimedean spiral favorable propagation path leading from the earth to the sun, and the other is centered about the solar central meridian. For large flux solar proton events, those with flux threshold of 1000 (cm2-sec-ster)-1 at energies > 10 MeV, we find the distribution is rather flat for about 40 degrees either side of central meridian.

The sun has produced several high energy and large fluence solar proton events during solar cycle 22. This recent activity is similar to activity that occurred in the 19th solar cycle before the advent of routine space measurements. In a review of the recent events and a comparison with significant solar proton events of previous solar cycles, it appears that the 20th and 21st solar cycles were deficient in the total fluence of solar particles as detected at the earth. Therefore, when models of maximum solar proton fluxes to be encountered for deep space missions are developed, solar proton data acquired during the present solar cycle should be incorporated.

The Liulin dosimeter-radiometer on the MIR space station detected the 19 October 1989 high energy solar proton event. These results show that the main particle increase contains protons with energies up to about 9 GeV. After the main particle onset the Liulin dosimeter observed a typical geomagnetic cutoff modulation of the dose rate from the solar particles as the MIR space station traversed magnetic latitudes. When the interplanetary shock and associated solar plasma enveloped the earth on 20 October between 14 and 17 UT the radiation exposure increased significantly due to the lowering of the geomagnetic cutoff. The analysis of this event shows how various geophysical phenomena can significantly modulate the dose rate encountered by earth-orbiting spacecraft.

We have developed a model and associated computational procedure for estimating energetic proton exposures during a major solar proton event that occur in combination with a large magnetic storm. Transmission functions for solar protons are computed using geomagnetic vertical cutoff data for quiescent and disturbed conditions. Predicted exposures in low altitude polar orbit are found to be orders of magnitude greater for severe magnetic storm conditions than are corresponding exposures in the absence of major disturbances. We examine the response scenario for the events of November 1960 as an example.

It is possible to model the time-intensity profile of solar particles expected in space after the occurrence of a significant solar flare on the sun. After the particles are accelerated in the flare process, if conditions are favorable, they may be released into the solar corona and then into space. The heliolongitudinal gradients observed in the inner heliosphere are extremely variable, reflecting the major magnetic structures in the solar corona which extend into space. These magnetic structures control the particle gradients in the inner heliosphere. The most extensive solar particle measurements are those observed by earth-orbiting spacecraft, and forecast and prediction procedures are best for the position of the earth. There is no consensus of how to extend the earth-based models to other locations in space. Local interplanetary conditions and structures exert considerable influence on the time-intensity profiles observed. The interplanetary shock may either reduce or enhance the particle intensity observed at a specific point in space and the observed effects are very dependent on energy.

A new event-oriented solar proton prediction model has been developed and implemented at the USAF Space Environment forecast facility. This new model generates predicted solar proton time-intensity profiles for a number of user adjustable energy ranges and is also capable of making predictions for the heavy ion flux. The computer program is designed so a forecaster can select inputs based on the data available in near real-time at the forecast center as the solar flare is occurring. The predicted event amplitude is based on the electromagnetic emission parameters of the solar flare (either microwave or soft X-ray emission) and the solar flare position on the sun. The model also has an update capability where the forecaster can normalize the prediction to actual spacecraft observations of spectral slope and particle flux as the event is occurring in order to more accurately predict the future time-intensity profile of the solar particle flux. Besides containing improvements in the accuracy of the predicted energetic particle event onset time and magnitude, the new model converts the predicted solar particle flux into an expected radiation dose that might be experienced by an astronaut during EVA activities or inside the space shuttle.