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The Calabrian Peninsula (Southern Italy) has acted as a glacial refugium and is now considered a hotspot for the genetic diversity of several species. Even if it hosts the highest diversity of many Italian endemic amphibian species, the distribution of some of these needs an update to address conservation measures. We took advantage of a vast dataset for three Italian species (Bombina pachypus, Salamandrina terdigitata, Triturus carnifex), two of which are endemic, deriving from a 40-year field surveys dataset (1982–2022), to update their distribution and basic ecological requirements. We evaluated changes in their distribution, projecting them on a broader spatial scale through a kernel density estimation, inferring statistically-significant hotspots using Corine Land Cover patches, and assessing the protected areas' coverage. We confirmed that Pollino, Catena Costiera, Sila and Aspromonte massifs are the main statistically-significant hotspots. Kernel densities showed a diversified pattern of gains/losses, sometimes overlapping, depending on the species. The whole outcomes obtained allow us to pinpoint specific areas where effective conservation measures need to be applied. Ousr findings reveal that local-scale monitoring and management should be planned, especially within the existing nationally-designated protected areas, which have been shown to protect far less with respect to the Natura 2000 sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The ongoing global change makes landscape planning and management of ecological corridors crucial to preserve biodiversity. We propose a workflow optimizing the use of different data sources to convert ecological niche models (ENMs) into landscape‐focused species distribution models (SDMs), using these latter to compute ecological corridors. We infer corridors connecting present occurrence localities to future climatic refugia as well as to localities where extinct populations occurred. Also, a continuous connectivity change index is proposed to assess current–future differences. Finally, we discuss possible applications of our workflow to conservation, assessing the capability of established protected areas to preserve ecological corridors. Location: Europe. Methods: As case study to illustrate our framework, we use a database comprising occurrence localities of Vipera ursinii, one of the most endangered European reptiles. We obtain weighted SDMs for each of the four V. ursinii subspecies by coupling climate‐based ENMs with standardized occurrence frequencies along land use and altitude gradients through weighted averaging in GIS. We calculate current and future landscape connectivity for each subspecies based on the corresponding weighted SDM. We compare predictive performance of "traditional" ENMs, including climate, land use and topography as predictors and weighted SDMs. Results: Weighted SDMs outperform ENMs, according to Boyce index. SDMs are used to infer connectivity, predicted to decrease in all future scenarios for V. ursinii, and assess where connections may favour movements of individuals to, for example, future suitable areas. Generally, protected areas are predicted to cover low‐connectivity territories. Main conclusions: The proposed "couple‐and‐weigh" approach could represent a helpful tool to investigate biogeography, conservation and landscape planning topics, as it permits to capitalize on occurrence records and accessible environmental predictors by narrowing the target species' potential distribution, estimated within "traditional" ENMs, to the realized one through post‐modelling GIS analyses, which in turn improves estimation of friction maps used to infer connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape connectivity is essential for the conservation of large carnivores, particularly in highly fragmented landscapes. Despite was nearing extinction, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) recovers in Europe, owing to reintroduction projects that have re-established several subpopulations. However, some of these subpopulations are small and isolated, possibly incurring into reduced genetic diversity. To establish a functional metapopulation in Europe, facilitating lynx movements is crucial, and connectivity modeling could support the identification of optimal solutions to connect these subpopulations. Here, we assessed habitat connectivity for the Eurasian lynx in current and future scenarios, between the European subpopulations, applying two different modeling approaches, namely Circuit theory-based and least-cost path techniques. Moreover, we evaluated the potential of European Protected Areas (EPAs) to form an ecological network able to connect lynx subpopulations. Our results show that several connections occur between Jura, Alpine, Bohemian-Bavarian-Austrian (BBA), and Dinaric populations, while Balkan is less connected. Moreover, the Carpathian population has the potential to act as a source for the BBA subpopulation, if properly connected. We report that, currently, only 21 % of the crucial corridors are covered by EPAs, and those are often disturbed by human infrastructures. High connectivity among EPAs occurs in Central and Eastern Europe, and among the Carpathian, BBA and Alpine subpopulations. However, unprotected areas appear between the Carpathian, the BBA, the Baltic, and the Balkans subpopulation. To enhance those connections, we test the Agenda 2030 goals, and find those functional for management actions focusing on dispersal corridors, also proving that transboundary cooperation is pivotal. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The meadow viper Vipera ursinii includes four subspecies with five allopatric areas of distribution in Europe. It is currently considered one of the most threatened reptile species on the continent, mainly because of its patchy distribution and concurrent habitat loss. Taking advantage of a database composed of occurrence data from bibliographical sources and field observations, we present the first European-scale assessment of the historical knowledge and chronogeonemy of this species. In addition, we evaluate the habitat use and coverage of protected areas with regard to both actual occurrences and modelled potentially suitable areas. This was done for Vipera ursinii s.l. as well as for each of the four subspecies. Our results show different patterns of historical knowledge as well as different degrees of legal protection, depending on the country and subspecies considered. Furthermore, most of the occurrences are from habitats which are classified as vulnerable. A gap analysis reveals an inadequate protection status for modelled areas of potential suitability and a heterogeneous coverage of protected areas, again depending on the subspecies considered. Our findings assist towards a more focused conservation management of all V. ursinii subspecies in the next future, which could take place by connecting landscape-scale research with field studies to update management strategies of protected areas. For these latter, Europe-wide coordinated actions are required to promote plans targeting the same conservation goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European pond turtle Emys orbicularis is seriously threatened across Europe by the non-native common slider, Trachemys scripta, which is included among the 100 most invasive species worldwide. Using ensemble forecast techniques, we analysed the influence of climatic factors on the current distribution of these two species, subsequently projecting the obtained models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to 2050 and 2070, to investigate if global warming would boost direct competition within our study region. We implemented a gap analysis in GIS environment to assess how protected areas (PAs) may be affected by a loss of suitable area for E. orbicularis and by an expansion of T. scripta. An analysis of altitudinal range shift was evaluated, based on obtained projections. We found that both species may gain suitable area in the future, possibly because of the positive effect of increasing temperatures, and are predicted to shift from plain-to-hilly areas towards higher altitudes. These trends result in an increasing overlap of potentially suitable areas for both species, particularly within PAs; moreover, a niche analysis highlights that the results obtained are linked to the environmental niches of the two species. Our findings suggest the necessity, particularly for PAs' authorities, of field monitoring of T. scripta and further research to more comprehensively assess biotic and abiotic factors influencing the invasiveness of this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Areas of endemism (AoEs) are one of the most important topics discussed in biogeography, considering that the analysis of areas of sympatry between endemic species is essential to understand species distribution patterns, reconstruct evolutionary events, regionalize biogeographical areas, and assess regions of high conservation concern. Here, we propose a workflow based on the application of a clustering-based algorithm to identify AoEs and compare it to another method, the Geographical Interpolation of Endemism, based on a kernel density approach. We apply this framework to the flea beetles of the whole sub-Saharan Africa, identifying several AoEs through both methods, but with differences in their delimitation, number and features of characteristic species, and surface. Considering that our proposed workflow can be applied to any territorial context and sets of endemic species, we also provide a GIS tool that implements all the steps into one single toolbox. The identification of AoEs, possibly facilitated by our approach, can provide useful spatial information when dealing with several biodiversity-related issues, even applied to practical conservation measures, such as protected areas management and landscape planning. Areas of endemism (AoEs) are a central area of research in biogeography. Different methods have been proposed for their identification in the literature. In this paper, a "grid-free" method based on the "Density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise" (DBSCAN) is here used for the first time to locate areas of endemism for species belonging to the beetle tribe Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae, Alticini in the Afrotropical Region. The DBSCAN is compared with the "Geographic Interpolation of Endemism" (GIE), another "grid-free" method based on a kernel density approach. DBSCAN and GIE both return largely overlapping results, detecting the same geographical locations for the AoEs, but with different delimitations, surfaces, and number of detected sinendemisms. The consensus maps obtained by GIE are in general less clearly delimited than the maps obtained by DBSCAN, but nevertheless allow us to evaluate the core of the AoEs more precisely, representing of the percentage levels of the overlap of the centroids. DBSCAN, on the other hand, appears to be faster and more sensitive in identifying the AoEs. To facilitate implementing the delimitation of the AoEs through the procedure proposed by us, a new tool named "CLUENDA" (specifically developed is in GIS environment) is also made available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]