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Background: Cancer screening trials have required large sample sizes and long time-horizons to demonstrate cancer mortality reductions, the primary goal of cancer screening. We examine assumptions and potential power gains from exploiting information from testing control-arm specimens, which we call the "intended effect" (IE) analysis that we explain in detail herein. The IE analysis is particularly suited to tests that can be conducted on stored specimens in the control arm, such as stored blood for multicancer detection (MCD) tests., Methods: We simulated hypothetical MCD screening trials to compare power and sample size for the standard vs IE analysis. Under two assumptions that we detail herein, we projected the IE analysis for 3 existing screening trials (National Lung Screening Trial [NLST], Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study [MINN-FOBT-A], and Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial-colorectal component [PLCO-CRC])., Results: Compared with the standard analysis for the 3 existing trials, the IE design could have reduced cancer-specific mortality P values 6-fold (NLST), 33-fold (MINN-FOBT-A), or 260 000-fold (PLCO-CRC) or, alternately, reduced sample size (90% power) by 25% (NLST), 47% (MINN-FOBT-A), or 63% (PLCO-CRC). For potential MCD trial designs requiring 100 000 subjects per arm to achieve 90% power for multicancer mortality for the standard analysis, the IE analysis achieves 90% power for only 37 500-50 000 per arm, depending on assumptions concerning control-arm test-positives., Conclusions: Testing stored specimens in the control arm of screening trials to conduct the IE analysis could substantially increase power to reduce sample size or accelerate trials and could provide particularly strong power gains for MCD tests., (Published by Oxford University Press 2024.)

Purpose: Studies finding lower incidence rates of prostate cancer among men with diabetes have been primarily conducted in White non-Hispanic (WNH) populations. The purpose of this analysis is to compare the relationship between diabetes and prostate cancer among Black (BNH) and White non-Hispanic men., Methods: We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data from 2011 to 2015 to compare incidence rates and tumor characteristics between BNH and WNH men by diabetes status. Age-adjusted incidence rates and corresponding rate ratios (RR) by diabetes status were calculated overall and by tumor grade, stage, and PSA level separately for BNH and WNH men. We used multivariable logistic regression to compare tumor characteristics among men with prostate cancer in the numerator, both within and across race/ethnic groups., Results: Overall age-adjusted incidence rates were significantly lower in men with diabetes compared to those without among WNH men [RR = 0.88 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.86-0.90] but there was no difference in rates by diabetes status among BNH men (RR = 1.01 95% CI 0.96-1.07). Men with diabetes were less likely to be diagnosed with distant-staged tumors compared to those without diabetes in both race/ethnic groups but the magnitude of difference by diabetes status was greater in BNH [Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.52 95% CI 0.42-0.64] than WNH (OR = 0.88 95% CI 0.81-0.95) men (p-value for interaction < 0.001)., Conclusion: The relationship between diabetes and prostate cancer differed between BNH and WNH men. The differences could have implications in evaluating the effectiveness of prostate cancer screening in men with diabetes across racial/ethnic subgroups., (© 2021. This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

Objective: Transrectal ultrasound guided biopsy for diagnostic workup for prostate cancer (PCa) has a substantial false negative rate. We sought to estimate PCa incidence and mortality following negative biopsy in a cohort of men undergoing prostate cancer screening., Subjects and Methods: The Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial randomized participants 55-74 years to an intervention vs control arm. Intervention arm men received annual prostate-specific antigen (PSA) tests for 6 years and digital rectal exams (DRE) for 4 years. We examined the cohort of men with a positive PSA (> 4 ng/mL) or DRE screen followed within one year by a negative biopsy. PCa incidence and mortality rates from time of first negative biopsy were analyzed as a function of PSA level at diagnosis and other factors. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates accounting for competing risk were estimated. Multivariate proportional hazards regression was utilized to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of PCa outcomes by PSA level, controlling for age and race., Results: The negative biopsy cohort included 2855 men. Median (25th/75th) age at biopsy was 65 (61/69) years; biopsies occurred between 1994 and 2006. Median (25/75th) follow-up was 13.2 (6.5/16.8) years for incidence and 16.6 (12.3/19.2) years for mortality. 740 PCa cases were diagnosed, with 33 PCa deaths. Overall 20-year cumulative PCa incidence and mortality rates were 26.4% (95% CI: 24.8-28.1) and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.9-1.7), respectively. HRs for PCa incidence and mortality increased significantly with increasing PSA., Conclusion: The mortality rate from PCa through 20 years following a negative biopsy is low., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Men with prostate cancer have high cause-specific survival, and most deaths are from other causes. This study aimed to investigate other and all-cause mortality in a large cancer screening cohort., Materials and Methods: From the PLCO (Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian) Cancer Screening Trial cohort, we selected men diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1994-2014. We examined other and all-cause survival by prostate cancer risk level, defined as the D'Amico categories for localized disease (low, intermediate and high risk) plus nonlocalized disease. We developed 3 Cox proportional hazards models to assess the relationship between risk level and survival. Model I controlled for age, race, study arm and diagnosis year. Model II additionally controlled for other demographic and medical history factors. Model III additionally controlled for initial treatment., Results: Of 76,672 men in PLCO and 10,859 prostate cancer cases, 9,248 (85.2%) had known prostate cancer risk level (mean±SD age 70.4±6.2 years). Median followup time from diagnosis was 10.8 years (IQR 6.8-15.0). Of 3,318 deaths 81% were from other causes. Compared to the low risk group, other-cause mortality HRs were 1.13 (95% CI 1.04-1.23), 1.35 (95% CI 1.21-1.50) and 1.63 (95% CI 1.35-1.97) for intermediate risk, high risk and advanced disease, respectively, in model II. Model III HRs were similar to model II except for advanced disease, where the HR decreased to 1.35., Conclusions: Other-cause survival was greater in lower vs higher risk disease, even after controlling for lifestyle characteristics and comorbidities. Further research is needed to identify factors contributing to this higher other-cause mortality to help mitigate the risk.

Background: Dosing limits in opioid clinical practice guidelines in the United States are likely misapplied to cancer patients, however, opioid use may be difficult to ascertain as they are largely excluded from opioid use studies., Methods: The primary objective was to determine whether cancer patients were more likely to be chronic opioid users after diagnosis. We described prescription opioid use among U.S. older adult cancer patients during two time periods, within 2 years of diagnosis (short-term) and at least 2 years beyond diagnosis (long-term), compared to those without cancer (controls). Among participants in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) screening trial with linkages to Medicare Part D data during 2011-2015, we used multivariable logistic regression to estimate the association between cancer diagnosis and opioid use outcomes controlling for demographics. The primary outcome of opioid use was measured with the following metrics: Any opioid use, chronic use (90 consecutive days supply of opioid use while allowing for a 7-day gap between refills), high use (average daily morphine equivalent (MME) ≥120 mg for any 90-day period), and total MME dose above 2,000 mg (MME 2000 )., Results: The short-term cohort included 1,491 cancer patients and 24,930 controls. Any use in the 2-year post-diagnosis period was higher among cancer patients OR 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.7). Chronic use rates were similar by cancer status (4.6% vs. 3.8% for cases and controls, respectively). The long-term cohort included 4,377 cancer patients and 27,545 controls. Rates of any use were similar among cancer patients and controls (63% vs. 59%)., Conclusions: Any opioid use was similar among long-term cancer survivors compared to controls, but differed among short-term survivors for any opioid use and marginally for chronic opioid use., (© 2021 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Purpose: Previous studies have found that men with diabetes are at reduced risk of prostate cancer compared to men without diabetes. The lower risk could be due to biologic differences and/or a diagnosis bias from use of the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test as a screening and diagnostic tool. We sought to further examine the relationship between diabetes and incidence of prostate cancer and examine the potential impact of changes in PSA screening guidelines in 2008 and 2012., Methods: We used 2004-2015 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data and limited the study population to men aged 67-74 with at least 2 years of continuous enrollment. Using the 5% Medicare sample as the denominator and prostate cancer cases as the numerator, we calculated age-adjusted rate ratios (RR) in 2006-2011 and 2012-2015 by diabetes status, overall and by tumor grade. We used multivariable logistic regression to compare tumor characteristics by diabetes status., Results: Men with diabetes had lower incidence rates of prostate cancer compared to men without diabetes in 2006-2011 [RR = 0.89 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87-0.91] and 2012-2015 (RR = 0.92 95% CI 0.89-0.95) but the slight attenuation toward the null in 2012-2015 was primarily due to the change in RRs for low-grade tumors., Conclusion: We found differences in the risk and characteristics of prostate cancer by diabetes status and that some risks have changed over time as guidelines have changed. With lower PSA use in the more recent time-period, rates of low-grade tumors have become more similar by diabetes status.

Background: The Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial assessed the effect of screening with prostate-specific antigen and a digital rectal examination on prostate cancer mortality. Another endpoint of interest was the burden of total metastatic disease., Methods: All men in PLCO were assessed for metastatic prostate cancer at diagnosis; men with clinical stage I/II disease were assessed for metastatic progression. The rate of total metastatic disease was defined as metastases found either at diagnosis or through progression divided by person-years (PYs) of follow-up for all men in the trial. Metastatic progression rates were computed among men with clinical stage I/II prostate cancer. Survival among men with metastases at diagnosis was compared with survival among men with metastatic progression., Results: Among 38,340 men in the intervention arm and 38,343 men in the control arm in PLCO, there were 4974 and 4699 prostate cancer cases, respectively. The rates of total metastatic disease were 4.72 and 4.83 per 10,000 PYs in the intervention and control arms, respectively (rate ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.81-1.18). The rates of metastatic progression among men with clinical stage I/II prostate cancer were 43.7 and 50.5 per 10,000 PYs in the intervention and control arms, respectively (P = .30). Prostate cancer-specific 5- and 10-year survival rates were significantly worse for men with metastatic progression (24% and 19%, respectively) than men with metastases at diagnosis (40% and 26%, respectively)., Conclusions: Rates of total metastatic disease and metastatic progression were similar across arms in PLCO. Survival was worse for men with metastatic progression in comparison with those with metastatic disease at diagnosis., (© 2019 American Cancer Society.)

Objective: To examine prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality by arm in the randomized Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial., Patients and Methods: Patients aged 55-74 years at 10 screening centres were randomized between 1993 and 2001 to an intervention or usual care arm. Patients in the intervention arm received six annual prostate-specific antigen (PSA) tests and four annual digital rectal examinations. The patients were followed for PCa incidence and for mortality via active follow-up processes and by linkage to state cancer registries and the National Death Index. For cancers identified through active follow-up, trial abstractors recorded the mode of diagnosis (screen-detected, symptomatic, other)., Results: A total of 38 340 patients were randomized to the intervention arm and 38 343 to a usual care arm. The median follow-up for mortality was 16.9 (intervention) and 16.7 years (usual care). There were 333 (intervention) and 352 (usual care) PCa cancer deaths, giving rates (per 10 000 person-years) of 5.5 and 5.9, respectively, and a rate ratio (RR) of 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-1.08; P = 0.38). The RR for overall PCa incidence was 1.05 (95% CI 1.01-1.09). The RRs by Gleason category were 1.17 (95% CI 1.11-1.23) for Gleason 2-6, 1.00 (95% CI 0.93-1.07) for Gleason 7 and 0.89 (95% CI 0.80-0.99) for Gleason 8-10 disease. By mode of detection, during the trial's screening phase, 13% of intervention arm vs 27% of usual care arm cases were symptomatic; post-screening, these percentages were 18% in each arm., Conclusion: After almost 17 years of median follow-up, there was no significant reduction in PCa mortality in the intervention compared with the usual care arm. There was a significant increase in Gleason 2-6 disease and a significant reduction in Gleason 8-10 disease in the intervention compared with the usual care arm., (© 2018 The Authors BJU International © 2018 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Importance: Patient nonadherence to chronic disease prevention guidelines is associated with increased mortality. Nonadherence to offered cancer screening tests may be associated with mortality among middle-aged and older adults., Objective: To evaluate the association between nonadherence to cancer screening tests and mortality in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening trial, excluding mortality from cancers studied in the trial., Design, Setting, and Participants: Randomization at 10 US screening centers occurred from November 8, 1993, to July 2, 2001. Original follow-up was through 13 years or December 31, 2009. Participants were re-consented to further follow-up starting May 18, 2011, and were observed until December 31, 2012. Protocol screening tests for the PLCO Cancer Screening trial intervention arm participants (N = 77 443) included chest radiographs and flexible sigmoidoscopy for both sexes, prostate-specific antigen tests and digital rectal examinations for men, and cancer antigen 125 tests and transvaginal ultrasonography for women. At baseline, participants completed a self-administered questionnaire. The cohort was classified into those receiving all sex-specified PLCO Cancer Screening trial screening tests at baseline (fully adherent), those receiving some but not all baseline tests (partially adherent), and those receiving no baseline tests (nonadherents). Secondary analysis was ad hoc in the original trial protocol. Statistical analysis was conducted from November 24, 2017, to August 29, 2018., Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality was ascertained via mailed annual study update questionnaires and searches of the National Death Index. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to analyze the association between mortality and adherence, controlling for various covariates., Results: Of 77 443 participants in the intervention arm, 64 567 (29 537 women and 35 030 men; mean [SD] age, 62.3 [5.3] years) were included in the analysis based on consenting to trial participation before randomization and being eligible for all screening tests. Overall, 55 065 participants (85.3%) were adherent, 2548 (3.9%) were partially adherent, and 6954 (10.8%) were nonadherent with the baseline screening protocol. Within 10 years of follow-up, the hazard ratio of mortality, excluding deaths from cancers studied in the PLCO Cancer Screening trial and controlling only for age, sex, and race/ethnicity (model 1), was 1.73 (95% CI, 1.60-1.89) for nonadherent compared with fully adherent participants and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.19-1.54) for partially compared with fully adherent participants. After adjustment for medical risk factors for mortality and behavioral-related factors (model 2), the hazard ratio decreased to 1.46 (95% CI, 1.34-1.59) for nonadherent compared with fully adherent participants., Conclusions and Relevance: Among participants in a screening trial for multiple cancers, a nonadherence behavior profile marked by nonadherence to protocol screenings was associated with higher overall mortality (excluding deaths from cancers studied in the trial). The generalizability of this finding to routine clinical practice should be assessed., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00002540.

Purpose: Men with diabetes have been found to have a reduced risk of prostate cancer (PCa), potentially due to detection bias from lower prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels or inhibition of tumor growth. Understanding if lower PCa rates are due to a lower risk of the disease or a detection bias from PSA testing can help inform the benefits and harms from prostate cancer screening., Methods: We used data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Screening Trial to assess the impact of PSA screening on PCa in men with diabetes and the potential role of detection bias and/or slower tumor growth. Comparing men by diabetes status, we calculated age-adjusted incidence rates by tumor grade and compared screening results, PSA levels, and tumor characteristics., Results: Men with diabetes had lower rates of PCa but was limited to low- and intermediate-grade tumors. Men with diabetes were less likely to be biopsied after their first positive screening test and men diagnosed with low/intermediate-grade tumors had significantly more advanced tumors with higher PSA levels., Conclusions: Our findings provide additional evidence that detection bias is likely contributing to the lower rates of low- and intermediate-grade prostate cancers.

Background: Despite disparities in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates between black and white men, there is still insufficient data available to assess potential differences in the benefits and harms of prostate cancer screening by race. Although the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Screening Trial is underpowered to detect a difference by race in prostate-cancer specific mortality, because of the large study size, there are still sufficient numbers to examine secondary screening outcomes. The objective of this analysis is to examine whether differences exist between black and white participants with respect to screening false-positive rates, biopsy follow-up of men with positive screens, tumor characteristics, and overdiagnosis of prostate cancer., Methods: Participants from the PLCO included men aged 55-74 years at baseline. Cancer diagnoses and deaths were identified through study update questionnaires, records of biopsy procedures, and linkage with the National Death Index. Cancer characteristics were obtained by medical abstractors. We used chi-squared tests to assess differences in false-positive rates, biopsy follow-up, and tumor characteristics. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare incidence and mortality rates adjusting for age and survival rates adjusting for Gleason scores., Results: Black men were slightly more likely (14.5%) to have a false-positive PSA test compared to white men (12.4%; P = 0.02) but less likely to have a false-positive digital rectal exam (DRE) (10.9% vs 14.2%, respectively; P < 0.001). Among all men who were screened, black men were significantly more likely to undergo a biopsy than white men (16.5% vs 13.8%, respectively [P = 0.003]) but there was no difference when limited to those with a positive PSA test. Prostate cancer tumors were more likely to be aggressive and to have metastasized in black men compared to white men. Disparities in incidence, mortality, and survival rates were comparable to those seen in population-based data., Conclusions: There was evidence that false-positive test results differed by race and screening test. Consistent with previous studies, cancer outcomes, and tumor characteristics were all more unfavorable in black men., (© 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Background: The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening significantly reduced prostate cancer mortality (rate ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.91). The US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) trial indicated no such reduction but had a wide 95% CI (rate ratio for prostate cancer mortality, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.87-1.36). Standard meta-analyses are unable to account for key differences between the trials that can impact the estimated effects of screening and the trials' point estimates., Methods: The authors calibrated 2 microsimulation models to individual-level incidence and mortality data from 238,936 men participating in the ERSPC and PLCO trials. A cure parameter for the underlying efficacy of screening was estimated by the models separately for each trial. The authors changed step-by-step major known differences in trial settings, including enrollment and attendance patterns, screening intervals, PSA thresholds, biopsy receipt, control arm contamination, and primary treatment, to reflect a more ideal protocol situation and differences between the trials., Results: Using the cure parameter estimated for the ERSPC, the models projected 19% to 21% and 6% to 8%, respectively, prostate cancer mortality reductions in the ERSPC and PLCO settings. Using this cure parameter, the models projected a reduction of 37% to 43% under annual screening with 100% attendance and biopsy compliance and no contamination. The cure parameter estimated for the PLCO trial was 0., Conclusions: The observed cancer mortality reduction in screening trials appears to be highly sensitive to trial protocol and practice settings. Accounting for these differences, the efficacy of PSA screening in the PLCO setting is not necessarily inconsistent with ERSPC results. Cancer 2018;124:1197-206. © 2017 American Cancer Society., (© 2017 American Cancer Society.)

Background: The ERSPC (European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer) found that screening reduced prostate cancer mortality, but the PLCO (Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial) found no reduction., Objective: To evaluate whether effects of screening on prostate cancer mortality relative to no screening differed between the ERSPC and PLCO., Design: Cox regression of prostate cancer death in each trial group, adjusted for age and trial. Extended analyses accounted for increased incidence due to screening and diagnostic work-up in each group via mean lead times (MLTs), which were estimated empirically and using analytic or microsimulation models., Setting: Randomized controlled trials in Europe and the United States., Participants: Men aged 55 to 69 (ERSPC) or 55 to 74 (PLCO) years at randomization., Intervention: Prostate cancer screening., Measurements: Prostate cancer incidence and survival from randomization; prostate cancer incidence in the United States before screening began., Results: Estimated MLTs were similar in the ERSPC and PLCO intervention groups but were longer in the PLCO control group than the ERSPC control group. Extended analyses found no evidence that effects of screening differed between trials (P = 0.37 to 0.47 [range across MLT estimation approaches]) but strong evidence that benefit increased with MLT (P = 0.0027 to 0.0032). Screening was estimated to confer a 7% to 9% reduction in the risk for prostate cancer death per year of MLT. This translated into estimates of 25% to 31% and 27% to 32% lower risk for prostate cancer death with screening as performed in the ERSPC and PLCO intervention groups, respectively, compared with no screening., Limitation: The MLT is a simple metric of screening and diagnostic work-up., Conclusion: After differences in implementation and settings are accounted for, the ERSPC and PLCO provide compatible evidence that screening reduces prostate cancer mortality., Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute.

Background: Two large-scale prostate cancer screening trials using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) have given conflicting results in terms of the efficacy of such screening. One of those trials, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial, previously reported outcomes with 13 years of follow-up. This study presents updated findings from the PLCO trial., Methods: The PLCO trial randomized subjects from 1993 to 2001 to an intervention or control arm. Intervention-arm men received annual PSA tests for 6 years and digital rectal examinations for 4 years. This study used a linkage with the National Death Index to extend mortality follow-up to a maximum of 19 years after randomization., Results: Men were randomized to the intervention arm (n = 38,340) or the control arm (n = 38,343). The median follow-up time was 14.8 years (25th/75th, 12.7/16.5 years) in the intervention arm and 14.7 years (25th/75th, 12.6/16.4 years) in the control arm. There were 255 deaths from prostate cancer in the intervention arm and 244 deaths from prostate cancer in the control arm; this meant a rate ratio (RR) of 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87-1.24). The RR for all-cause mortality was 0.977 (95% CI, 0.950-1.004). It was estimated that 86% of the men in the control arm and 99% of the men in the intervention arm received any PSA testing during the trial, and the estimated yearly screening-phase PSA testing rates were 46% and 84%, respectively., Conclusions: Extended follow-up of the PLCO trial over a median of 15 years continues to indicate no reduction in prostate cancer mortality for the intervention arm versus the control arm. Because of the high rate of control-arm PSA testing, this finding can be viewed as showing no benefit of organized screening versus opportunistic screening. Cancer 2017;123:592-599. © 2016 American Cancer Society., (© 2016 This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)

There were significant recruitment challenges specific to the PLCO Cancer Screening Trial. Large numbers of participants were to be randomized from ten catchment areas nationwide within time and budgetary constraints. The eligible population was elderly and had to meet health and behavioral thresholds. Informed consent was required to participate and be randomized to screening for three cancers at periodic clinic visits or to a usual care arm that included no clinical visits. Consenting required special efforts to fully explain the trial and its potential scientific benefit to future patients with potentially no benefits but possible harms to PLCO participants. Participation would include continued follow-up for at least 13 years after randomization. Strong collaborative investments were required by the NCI and screening centers (SCs) to assure timely recruitment and appropriate racial participation. A trial-wide pilot phase tested recruitment and protocol follow through at SCs and produced a vanguard population of 11,406 participants. NCI announced the trial nationally in advance of the pilot and followed with an even more intense collaborative role with SCs for the main phase to facilitate trial-wide efficient and timely recruitment. Special efforts to enhance recruitment in the main phase included centralized and local monitoring of progress, cross-linking SCs to share experiences in problem solving, centralized training, substantial additional funding dedicated to recruitment and retention, including specialized programs for minority recruitment, obtaining national endorsement by the American Cancer Society, launching satellite recruitment and screening centers, including minority focused satellites, and adding a new SC dedicated to minority recruitment.

Background: The combined action of androgens and estrogens-specifically their balance-may play a role in prostate carcinogenesis, but existing evidence is sparse and inconsistent. We investigated associations between serum sex steroid hormones, including estrogen metabolites, and risk of aggressive prostate cancer., Methods: In a case-control study nested within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial cohort, we measured serum estrone, estradiol, and 13 estrogen metabolites, in the 2-, 4-, or 16-hydroxylation pathways, using an LC/MS-MS assay. Cases (n = 195) were non-Hispanic white men ages 55 to 70 years when diagnosed with aggressive prostate cancer (stage III or IV and/or Gleason ≥7). Controls (n = 195) were non-Hispanic white men without prostate cancer who were frequency matched to cases by age and year at blood draw, and time since baseline screen. Only men with serum testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin measured previously were eligible. Logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI)., Results: Risk of aggressive prostate cancer was strongly inversely associated with estradiol:testosterone ratio (OR4th quartile vs. 1st = 0.27; 95% CI, 0.12-0.59, Ptrend = 0.003) and positively associated with 2:16α-hydroxyestrone ratio (OR4th quartile vs. 1st = 2.44; 95% CI, 1.34-4.45, Ptrend = 0.001). Individual estrogen metabolites were unrelated to risk., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that sex steroid hormones, specifically the estrogen-androgen balance, may be important in the development of aggressive prostate cancer., Impact: Improved understanding of the hormonal etiology of prostate cancer is critical for prevention and therapeutic interventions., (©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Objective: To examine mortality and morbidity after prostate biopsy in the intervention arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening (PLCO) trial., Subjects and Methods: Abstractors from the PLCO trial recorded the types and dates of diagnostic follow-up procedures after positive screens and documented the types and dates of resultant complications. Cancers and deaths among the participants were tracked. The mortality rate in the 120-day period after prostate biopsy was compared with a control rate of deaths in the 120-day period after a negative screen in men without biopsy. Multivariate analysis was performed to control for potential confounders, including age, comorbidities and smoking. Rates of any complication, infectious and non-infectious complications were computed among men with a negative biopsy. Multivariate analysis was used to examine the risk factors for complications., Results: Of the 37,345 men enrolled in the PLCO trial (intervention arm), 4861 had at least one biopsy after a positive screen and 28,661 had a negative screen and no biopsy. The 120-day mortality rate after biopsy was 0.95 (per 1000), compared with the control group rate of 1.8; the multivariate relative risk was 0.49 (95% CI: 0.2-1.1). Among 3706 negative biopsies, the rates (per 1000) of any complication, infectious and non-infections complications were 20.2, 7.8 and 13.0, respectively. A history of prostate enlargement or inflammation was significantly associated with higher rates of both infectious (odds ratio [OR] = 3.7) and non-infectious (OR = 2.2) complications. Black race was associated with a higher infectious complications rate (OR = 7.1) and repeat biopsy was associated with lower rates of non-infectious complications (OR = 0.3)., Conclusion: Mortality rates were not found to be higher after prostate biopsy in the PLCO trial and complications were relatively infrequent, with several risk factors identified., (Published 2013. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.)

The Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial is a large-scale research effort conducted by the National Cancer Institute. PLCO offers an example of coordinated research by both the extramural and intramural communities of the National Institutes of Health. The purpose of this article is to describe the PLCO research resource and how it is managed and to assess the productivity and the costs associated with this resource. Such an in-depth analysis of a single large-scale project can shed light on questions such as how large-scale projects should be managed, what metrics should be used to assess productivity, and how costs can be compared with productivity metrics. A comprehensive publication analysis identified 335 primary research publications resulting from research using PLCO data and biospecimens from 2000 to 2012. By the end of 2012, a total of 9679 citations (excluding self-citations) have resulted from this body of research publications, with an average of 29.7 citations per article, and an h index of 45, which is comparable with other large-scale studies, such as the Nurses' Health Study. In terms of impact on public health, PLCO trial results have been used by the US Preventive Services Task Force in making recommendations concerning prostate and ovarian cancer screening. The overall cost of PLCO was $454 million over 20 years, adjusted to 2011 dollars, with approximately $37 million for the collection, processing, and storage of biospecimens, including blood samples, buccal cells, and pathology tissues.

Background: Two recent chemoprevention trials demonstrated significant reductions in overall prostate cancer incidence. However, a possible increase in high-grade disease has raised concerns that the harms of the drugs, including mortality because of high-grade disease, may outweigh the benefits. The authors attempted to estimate the effect of these drugs on prostate cancer mortality to be able to better evaluate the cost-benefit tradeoff., Methods: The authors analyzed prostate cancer incidence in the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) and Reduction by Dutasteride of Prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE) trial, which evaluated finasteride and the related compound dutasteride, respectively (both vs placebo). They used 13-year prostate cancer survival data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) trial to project prostate cancer mortality from incidence patterns; survival rates were applied to incident cancers according to prognostic strata, which were defined by Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen level, and clinical stage. For PCPT, the analysis was performed using both original trial results and previously published adjusted analyses that attempted to account for artifacts related to the drugs' effect on prostate volume., Results: For the PCPT trial, the estimated relative risk (RR) for prostate cancer mortality was 1.02 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.85-1.23) using the original trial results and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.72-1.06) and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.76-1.09) based on the adjusted PCPT analyses. For the REDUCE trial, the RR for prostate cancer mortality was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.80-1.08)., Conclusions: Projecting a mortality outcome of the PCPT and REDUCE trials as an approach to weighing benefits versus harms suggests at most a small increase in prostate cancer mortality in the treatment arms, and possibly a modest decrease., (Copyright © 2012 American Cancer Society.)

Background: The prostate component of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) randomized screening trial demonstrated no mortality effect of screening. Here we analyze prostate cancer specific survival in PLCO and its relation to screening., Methods: 76,693 men aged 55-74 were randomized to usual care (n = 38,350) or intervention (n = 38,343). Intervention arm men received annual prostate-specific antigen (6 years) and digital rectal exam (4 years). Men were followed for cancer diagnosis and mortality through 13 years. Medical record abstractors confirmed prostate cancer diagnoses, stage and grade. Prostate-specific survival in PLCO cases was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and proportional hazards modeling. We utilized data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program to compute expected survival in PLCO and compared this to observed., Results: There was no significant difference in prostate-specific survival rates between arms; 10 year survival rates were 94.7% (intervention, n = 4250 cases) versus 93.5% (usual care, n = 3815 cases). Within the intervention arm, cases never screened in PLCO had lower 10 year survival rates (82%) than screen detected or interval (following a negative screen) cases, both around 95.5%. The ratio of observed to expected 10 year prostate-specific death (1-survival) rates was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.51-0.68) for all PLCO cases, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.51-0.81) for Gleason 5-7 cases and 1.07 (95% CI: 0.87-1.3) for Gleason 8-10 cases., Conclusion: Prostate cancer specific survival in PLCO was comparable across arms and significantly better than expected based on nationwide population data. How much of the better survival is due to a healthy volunteer effect and to lead-time and overdiagnosis biases is not readily determinable., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: The prostate component of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial was undertaken to determine whether there is a reduction in prostate cancer mortality from screening using serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and digital rectal examination (DRE). Mortality after 7-10 years of follow-up has been reported previously. We report extended follow-up to 13 years after the trial., Methods: A total of 76 685 men, aged 55-74 years, were enrolled at 10 screening centers between November 1993 and July 2001 and randomly assigned to the intervention (organized screening of annual PSA testing for 6 years and annual DRE for 4 years; 38 340 men) and control (usual care, which sometimes included opportunistic screening; 38 345 men) arms. Screening was completed in October 2006. All incident prostate cancers and deaths from prostate cancer through 13 years of follow-up or through December 31, 2009, were ascertained. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated as the ratio of observed rates in the intervention and control arms, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of events. Poisson regression modeling was used to examine the interactions with respect to prostate cancer mortality between trial arm and age, comorbidity status, and pretrial PSA testing. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: Approximately 92% of the study participants were followed to 10 years and 57% to 13 years. At 13 years, 4250 participants had been diagnosed with prostate cancer in the intervention arm compared with 3815 in the control arm. Cumulative incidence rates for prostate cancer in the intervention and control arms were 108.4 and 97.1 per 10 000 person-years, respectively, resulting in a relative increase of 12% in the intervention arm (RR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.17). After 13 years of follow-up, the cumulative mortality rates from prostate cancer in the intervention and control arms were 3.7 and 3.4 deaths per 10 000 person-years, respectively, resulting in a non-statistically significant difference between the two arms (RR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.87 to 1.36). No statistically significant interactions with respect to prostate cancer mortality were observed between trial arm and age (P(interaction) = .81), pretrial PSA testing (P(interaction) = .52), and comorbidity (P(interaction) = .68)., Conclusions: After 13 years of follow-up, there was no evidence of a mortality benefit for organized annual screening in the PLCO trial compared with opportunistic screening, which forms part of usual care, and there was no apparent interaction with age, baseline comorbidity, or pretrial PSA testing.

Establishing a cancer screening biomarker's intended performance requires "phase III" specimens obtained in asymptomatic individuals before clinical diagnosis rather than "phase II" specimens obtained from symptomatic individuals at diagnosis. We used specimens from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial to evaluate ovarian cancer biomarkers previously assessed in phase II sets. Phase II specimens from 180 ovarian cancer cases and 660 benign disease or general population controls were assembled from four Early Detection Research Network or Ovarian Cancer Specialized Program of Research Excellence sites and used to rank 49 biomarkers. Thirty-five markers, including 6 additional markers from a fifth site, were then evaluated in PLCO proximate specimens from 118 women with ovarian cancer and 474 matched controls. Top markers in phase II specimens included CA125, HE4, transthyretin, CA15.3, and CA72.4 with sensitivity at 95% specificity ranging from 0.73 to 0.40. Except for transthyretin, these markers had similar or better sensitivity when moving to phase III specimens that had been drawn within 6 months of the clinical diagnosis. Performance of all markers declined in phase III specimens more remote than 6 months from diagnosis. Despite many promising new markers for ovarian cancer, CA125 remains the single-best biomarker in the phase II and phase III specimens tested in this study.

Background: Recently, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial published 7-year complete prostate cancer mortality results, which showed no benefit of screening with prostate specific antigen (PSA) and digital rectal examination (DRE). An issue of concern was the substantial level of 'contamination', or use of PSA and DRE in control arm men., Purpose: To provide a detailed description of contamination in PLCO., Methods: Surveys inquiring about the most recent PSA and DRE use were given to a sample of control arm men throughout the screening phase of PLCO (years 0-5). A probability model was utilized to translate survey results into actual frequency counts of tests. To assess the impact of contamination, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End, Results: (SEER) incidence rates from the pre-screening era (1985-1987) as well as contemporaneous rates, were applied to PLCO person-years of observation. Results Of 38,350 control arm men, 2427 were surveyed. Pre-trial screening and college education were statistically significantly associated with increased contamination rates. The estimated mean number of screening PSAs (DREs) in the control arm was 2.7 (1.1); this compares to 5.0 (3.5) in the screened arm. 1984 and 2538 prostate cancers were observed in the control and screened arms, respectively, during the screening phase. In the absence of screening, 960 and 949 would have been expected; with contemporaneous incidence rates, 1630 and 1611 were expected., Limitations: Due to the limitations of the surveys, in terms of both reach and scope, the exact level of PSA and DRE use in control arm men cannot be known., Conclusions: Use of prostate screening by control arm men was substantial, but also substantially less than in screened arm men. Detailed quantitative analyses of screening use across arms are critical for understanding current and future findings from the prostate component of PLCO.

Introduction: Chest radiographs are routinely employed in clinical practice. Radiographic findings that are abnormal suspicious (AS) for lung cancer occur commonly. The majority of AS radiographic abnormalities are not cancer. This study identifies predictors of true positive (TP) AS and presents models for estimating the probability of lung cancer., Methods: This is a prospective cohort study nested in the randomized National Cancer Institute's Prostate Lung Colorectal Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO). First-time AS screens in the screening arm of the PLCO were studied. Associations between nonradiographic and radiographic factors, and TP AS were evaluated by multiple logistic regression., Results: The PLCO intervention arm had 77,465 individuals, of whom 12,314 were AS and of these 232 (1.9%) had lung cancer (were TP). Important independent predictors of TP were older age, lower education, greater pack years and duration smoking history, body mass index <30, family history of lung cancer, lung nodule, lung mass, unilateral mediastinal or hilar lymphadenopathy, lung infiltrate, and upper/middle chest AS location. The model including these variables had a receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) of 86.4%. This model excluding the smoking variables had an ROC AUC of 77.1% and excluding all nonradiographic variables had an ROC AUC of 73.3% (p < 0.0001 for all these model differences). Smoking and nonsmoking nonradiographic variables significantly added to prediction., Conclusion: This study identifies important nonradiographic and radiographic predictors of lung cancer, and presents an accurate model for estimating the probability of lung cancer in individuals with suspicious radiographs. These findings may be of value for screening, research, and patient and clinician decision-making.

Background: The effect of screening with prostate-specific-antigen (PSA) testing and digital rectal examination on the rate of death from prostate cancer is unknown. This is the first report from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial on prostate-cancer mortality., Methods: From 1993 through 2001, we randomly assigned 76,693 men at 10 U.S. study centers to receive either annual screening (38,343 subjects) or usual care as the control (38,350 subjects). Men in the screening group were offered annual PSA testing for 6 years and digital rectal examination for 4 years. The subjects and health care providers received the results and decided on the type of follow-up evaluation. Usual care sometimes included screening, as some organizations have recommended. The numbers of all cancers and deaths and causes of death were ascertained., Results: In the screening group, rates of compliance were 85% for PSA testing and 86% for digital rectal examination. Rates of screening in the control group increased from 40% in the first year to 52% in the sixth year for PSA testing and ranged from 41 to 46% for digital rectal examination. After 7 years of follow-up, the incidence of prostate cancer per 10,000 person-years was 116 (2820 cancers) in the screening group and 95 (2322 cancers) in the control group (rate ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16 to 1.29). The incidence of death per 10,000 person-years was 2.0 (50 deaths) in the screening group and 1.7 (44 deaths) in the control group (rate ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.75 to 1.70). The data at 10 years were 67% complete and consistent with these overall findings., Conclusions: After 7 to 10 years of follow-up, the rate of death from prostate cancer was very low and did not differ significantly between the two study groups. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00002540.), (2009 Massachusetts Medical Society)

Background: Previous studies have shown an inverse relationship between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration and body mass index (BMI). It has been recently proposed that this relationship may be explained by the larger plasma volume of obese men diluting a fixed amount of PSA (hemodilution effect). We examined this hypothesis in a cohort of men enrolled in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial., Methods: Of 38,349 men ages 55 to 74 years randomized in PLCO to receive annual PSA and digital rectal examination screening, 28,380 had a baseline PSA, complete demographic information, and no prostate cancer diagnosis within 6 years from baseline. Self-reported height and weight were used to calculate BMI and to estimate plasma volume. PSA mass was estimated as PSA concentration times plasma volume. Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate the relationship between PSA concentration, plasma volume, PSA mass, and BMI., Results: PSA concentration significantly decreased with increasing BMI (P<0.001); mean PSA values were 1.27, 1.25, 1.18, and 1.07 ng/mL among normal (BMI, 18.5-25), overweight (BMI, 25-30), obese (BMI, 30-35), and morbidly obese (BMI, >35) men, respectively. However, plasma volume also increased with increasing BMI and PSA mass showed no association with BMI, with mean values of 3.78, 3.95, 3.97, and 3.82 microg across the four BMI categories (P=0.10)., Conclusions: This study confirms earlier findings that the inverse relationship between PSA concentration and BMI may be explained by a hemodilution effect. These findings could have implications for prostate cancer screening in large men.

Objective: To describe the results of the first four rounds (T0-T3) of prostate cancer screening in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial (designed to determine the value of screening in the four cancers), that for prostate cancer is evaluating whether annual screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and a digital rectal examination (DRE) reduces prostate cancer-specific mortality., Subjects and Methods: In all, 38 349 men aged 55-74 years were randomized to undergo annual screening with PSA (abnormal >4.0 ng/mL) and a DRE. The follow-up of abnormal screening results was at the discretion of subjects' physicians. PLCO staff obtained records related to diagnostic follow-up of positive screen results., Results: Compliance with screening decreased slightly from 89% at baseline to 85% at T3. Both PSA positivity rates (range 7.7-8.8% at T0-T3) and DRE positivity rates (range 6.8-7.6% at T0-T3) were relatively constant over time. The positive predictive value (PPV) of a PSA level of >4.0 ng/mL decreased from 17.9% at T0 to 10.4-12.3% at T1-T3; the PPV for DRE (in the absence of a positive PSA test) was constant over time (2.9-3.6%). Cancer was diagnosed in 1902 men (4.9%). Screen-detected cancers at T0 (549) were more likely to be clinical stage III/IV (5.8%) and to have a Gleason score of 7-10 (34%) than screen-detected cancers at T1-T3 (1.5-4.2% stage III/IV and 24-27% Gleason score 7-10 among 1054 cases)., Conclusion: The present findings on serial prostate screening are similar to those reported from other multi-round screening studies. Determining the effect of PSA screening on prostate cancer mortality awaits further follow-up.

Background: Minority populations in the United States, especially blacks and Hispanics, are generally underrepresented among participants in clinical trials. Here, we report the experience of enrolling ethnic minorities in a large cancer screening trial., Methods: The Prostate, Colorectal, Lung and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial is a multicenter randomized trial designed to evaluate the effectiveness of screening for the PLCO cancers. Subjects were recruited at 10 U.S. centers between 1993 and 2001. One screening center had a major special recruitment effort for blacks and another center had a major special recruitment effort for Hispanics., Results: Among almost 155,000 subjects enrolled in PLCO, minority enrollment was as follows: black (5.0%), Hispanic (1.8%) and Asian (3.6%). This compares to an age-eligible population in the combined catchment areas of the PLCO centers that was 14.0% black, 2.9% Hispanic and 5.4% Asian, and an age-eligible population across the U.S. that was 9.5% black, 6.5% Hispanic and 3.0% Asian. About half (45%) of Hispanics were recruited at the center with the special Hispanic recruitment effort. Seventy percent of blacks were recruited at two centers; the one with the major special recruitment effort and a center in Detroit whose catchment area was 20% black among age-eligibles. Blacks, Hispanics and (non-Hispanic) whites were all more highly educated, less likely to currently smoke and more likely to get regular exercise than their counterparts in the general population., Conclusion: Significant efforts were made to recruit racial/ ethnic minorities into PLCO, and these efforts resulted in enrollment levels that were comparable to those seen in many recent cancer screening or prevention trials. Blacks and Hispanics were nonetheless underrepresented in PLCO compared to their levels among age-eligibles in the overall U.S. population or in the aggregate PLCO catchment areas.

Background: Increased preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) velocity (PSAV) has been associated with increased prostate cancer mortality and higher Gleason scores. The authors evaluated the relation between PSAV, biopsy Gleason score, and pathologic stage in men who were enrolled in a prostate cancer screening trial., Methods: Data were analyzed from 1441 men who were enrolled in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial who received > or =2 PSA screens and were diagnosed with prostate cancer within 1 year of the last screen. PSAV was estimated by using all screening PSA values within 6 years prediagnosis., Results: Both PSA and PSAV were related to biopsy Gleason score. The multivariable odds ratios (OR), controlling for PSA and demographics, for having a Gleason score of 7 to 10 were 1.3 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.9-1.9), 2.2 (95% CI, 1.5-3.3), and 2.3 (95% CI, 1.4-3.9) for men with PSAV values from 0.5 to 1 ng/mL per year, from 1 to 2 ng/mL per year, and >2 ng/mL per year, respectively, compared with men who had PSAV values <0.5 ng/mL per year. The median PSAV was 0.60 ng/mL per year for men with Gleason scores from 2 to 6 versus 0.84 ng/mL per year for men with Gleason scores from 7 to 10 (P < .0001). Among 658 men who underwent prostatectomy, both PSA and PSAV were associated with advanced pathologic stage in univariate analyses; however, when the analysis controlled for clinical stage and biopsy Gleason score, the associations of PSA and PSAV were no longer statistically significant., Conclusions: PSAV and PSA levels were associated independently with biopsy Gleason score. Among men who underwent prostatectomy, PSAV and PSA were not predictive of advanced pathologic stage when the analysis was controlled for biopsy Gleason score and clinical stage. It cannot be determined yet whether PSAV is predictive of long-term prostate cancer outcome in this cohort.

Objective: To determine patterns of repeat prostate biopsy in a cohort of men undergoing prostate cancer screening who have a negative initial biopsy., Subjects and Methods: The Prostate, Colorectal, Lung, and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial is an ongoing study the prostate component of which consists of six annual screens with measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and a digital rectal examination (DRE). The diagnostic follow-up of positive screening results is done by the subject's healthcare provider outside the purview of the PLCO. We analysed the experience of repeat biopsy in men in the PLCO with an initial negative biopsy. Men were divided by indication for initial biopsy into those with suspicious PSA levels and those with suspicious DRE findings., Results: The probability of having a repeat biopsy within 3 years of initial biopsy was 43% for 1736 men with suspicious PSA levels and 13% for 1025 men with suspicious DRE findings. Rates of third and fourth biopsy after a previous negative biopsy were similar to the initial repeat biopsy rate in PSA-positive men. Most men had a repeat biopsy only after having an additional round of screening. The PSA level and PSA velocity determined after initial biopsy were independent risk factors for a repeat biopsy, both in PSA-positive and DRE-positive men. High-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia was a risk factor for repeat biopsy before any repeat PSA or DRE testing., Conclusion: The experience of this cohort should be generally representative of patterns of care for repeat biopsy in men undergoing periodic screening. These data can provide context to the debate over optimum practices for repeat biopsy.

Purpose: Annual screening with PSA, although of unproven benefit, is currently used for prostate cancer early detection. A large fraction of screened men have low (less than 2 ng/ml) initial PSA. The yield over time of positive PSA screens (ie more than 4 ng/ml) in these men has not been well characterized in large cohorts in the United States., Materials and Methods: Men in the screening arm of the PLCO received baseline PSA and annual tests for 5 years. 30,495 of these men had baseline PSA 4 ng/ml or less. We estimated the cumulative probability of converting to PSA greater than 4 at years 1 through 5 as a function of baseline PSA., Results: Among men with baseline PSA less than 1 ng/ml, 1.5% converted by year 5 (95% CI 1.2-1.7). Among men with baseline PSA of 1.0 to 1.99 ng/ml, 1.2% (95% CI 0.9-1.3) and 7.4% (95% CI 6.8-8.1) converted by year 1 and 5, respectively. A total of 33.5% and 79% of men with initial PSA of 2.0 to 2.99 and 3.0 to 4.0, respectively, converted by year 5. Of men with baseline PSA less than 1 ng/ml converting to PSA more than 4 ng/ml, 8% were diagnosed with cancer within 2 years of conversion. About 10% of men with baseline PSA less than 1 ng/ml and negative baseline DRE had a positive DRE within 3 years., Conclusions: For men choosing PSA screening, screening every 5 years for baseline PSA less than 1 ng/ml and every 2 years for PSA 1 to 2 ng/ml could result in a 50% reduction in PSA tests and in less than 1.5% of men missing earlier positive screens, but with an unknown effect on prostate cancer mortality.

Background: The benefit of screening for prostate cancer using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and digital rectal examination (DRE) is uncertain and is under evaluation in a randomized prospective trial, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Although the final results are several years away, the initial round of screening is complete. We describe the population enrolled in the PLCO trial, their baseline PSA and DRE screening results, and diagnostic follow-up results during the first year of follow-up., Methods: A total of 38,350 men were randomly assigned to the screening arm of the PLCO trial from November 1993 through June 2001. Men were advised to seek diagnostic follow-up from their primary care provider if their DRE was suspicious for cancer and/or if their serum PSA level was higher than 4 ng/mL. PLCO trial staff obtained records related to diagnostic follow-up., Results: Compliance with both screening tests was high (more than 89%). At screening, 7.5% of men had a positive DRE (i.e., suspicious for cancer) and 7.9% had a PSA level higher than 4 ng/mL. Of the men with positive screening tests, 74.2% underwent additional diagnostic testing, and 31.5% underwent a prostatic biopsy within 1 year. Overall, 1.4% of the men in the screening arm were diagnosed with prostate cancer, the majority of whom had clinically localized cancer. These compliance, biopsy, and cancer detection rates appear to be representative of contemporary practice patterns., Conclusion: The PLCO trial is evaluating PSA- and DRE-based screening for prostate cancer in a clinically valid manner. Whether such screening will result in a reduction of prostate cancer mortality cannot be answered until the randomized comparison is completed.

Purpose: The benefit of prostate specific antigen (PSA) and digital rectal examination (DRE) screening for prostate cancer is under evaluation in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Followup of positive screens in PLCO is done by subject personal physicians and it is outside of trial control. We describe the pattern of prostate biopsy in men with positive screens in PLCO., Materials and Methods: We examined all men with positive baseline PSA or DRE screens and men with positive post-baseline screens occurring by December 2000., Results: Of 2,717 men with positive PSA (greater than 4 ng/ml) at baseline 41% and 64% underwent biopsy within 1 and 3 years, respectively. A screening PSA of 7 to 10 and greater than 10 ng/ml at baseline was associated with significantly higher biopsy rates (HR 1.9 and 2.6, respectively) compared to PSA 4 to 7 ng/ml. The 1,793 in men whom the first positive PSA was after baseline had a lower overall biopsy rate (50% within 3 years). Furthermore, PSA above 7 ng/ml were not associated with higher biopsy rates in this group. The 4,449 men with positive DRE screens and negative PSA had a 3-year biopsy rate of 27%. Men with positive DRE at diagnostic followup had a biopsy rate of around 90%. However, few men, even of those with positive DRE screens, had positive diagnostic DREs., Conclusions: : These biopsy rates following positive PSA and DRE screens are likely to be representative of national rates. These results suggest that PLCO is evaluating the effects of screening in a contemporary and robust manner.