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Objectives To calculate design-corrected estimates of the effect of screening on prostate cancer mortality by centre in the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). Setting The ERSPC has shown a 21% reduction in prostate cancer mortality in men invited to screening with follow-up truncated at 13 years. Centres either used pre-consent randomisation (effectiveness design) or post-consent randomisation (efficacy design). Methods In six centres (three effectiveness design, three efficacy design) with follow-up until the end of 2010, or maximum 13 years, the effect of screening was estimated as both effectiveness (mortality reduction in the target population) and efficacy (reduction in those actually screened). Results The overall crude prostate cancer mortality risk ratio in the intervention arm vs control arm for the six centres was 0.79 ranging from a 14% increase to a 38% reduction. The risk ratio was 0.85 in centres with effectiveness design and 0.73 in those with efficacy design. After correcting for design, overall efficacy was 27%, 24% in pre-consent and 29% in post-consent centres, ranging between a 12% increase and a 52% reduction. Conclusion The estimated overall effect of screening in attenders (efficacy) was a 27% reduction in prostate cancer mortality at 13 years' follow-up. The variation in efficacy between centres was greater than the range in risk ratio without correction for design. The centre-specific variation in the mortality reduction could not be accounted for by the randomisation method.

Background To evaluate the individual and combined effects of enterolactone, vitamin D, free testosterone, Chlamydia trachomatis and HPV-18 on the risk of prostate cancer in a large population-based biochemical material that combined three Nordic serum sample banks. Material and methods A joint cohort of 209 000 healthy men was followed using cancer registry linkages. From this cohort altogether 699 incident cases of prostate cancer were identified. Four controls were selected by incidence density sampling and matching for country, age and date of the blood sampling. Complete data for all investigated exposures was available for 483 eligible cases and 1055 eligible controls. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to investigate the solitary and combined effects. Results The solitary effects were small. Significantly increased risk [rate ratio 1.6 (95% CI 1.0-2.5)] was found in those seronegative for C. trachomatis infection. The joint effect in risk levels of enterolactone and vitamin D was antagonistic [observed rate ratio (RR) 1.4 (1.0-2.1), expected RR 2.0 (1.0-4.1)] as well as that of HPV-18 and C. trachomatis [observed RR 1.9 (0.8-4.5), expected RR 9.9 (1.1-87.0)]. Conclusion A large follow-up study combining data from several previously investigated exposures to investigate joint effects found no evidence that exposure to two risk factors would increase the risk of prostate cancer from that expected on basis of exposure to one risk factor. If anything, the results were consistent with antagonistic interactions.

Prostate cancer (PC) screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) has been shown to decrease PC mortality in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). However, in the Finnish trial, which is the largest component of the ERSPC, no statistically significant mortality reduction was observed. We investigated which had the largest impact on PC deaths in the screening arm: non-participation, interval cancers or PSA threshold. The screening (SA) and control (CA) arms comprised altogether 80,144 men. Men in the SA were screened at four-year intervals and referred to biopsy if the PSA concentration was ≥ 4.0 ng/ml, or 3.0-3.99 ng/ml with a free/total PSA ratio ≤ 16%. The median follow-up was 15.0 years. A counterfactual exclusion method was applied to estimate the effect of three subgroups in the SA: the non-participants, the screen-negative men with PSA ≥ 3.0 ng/ml and a subsequent PC diagnosis, and the men with interval PCs. The absolute risk of PC death was 0.76% in the SA and 0.85% in the CA; the observed hazard ratio (HR) was 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-1.04). After correcting for non-attendance, the HR was 0.78 (0.64-0.96); predicted effect for a hypothetical PSA threshold of 3.0 ng/ml the HR was 0.88 (0.74-1.04) and after eliminating the effect of interval cancers the HR was 0.88 (0.74-1.04). Non-participating men in the SA had a high risk of PC death and a large impact on PC mortality. A hypothetical lower PSA threshold and elimination of interval cancers would have had a less pronounced effect on the screening impact., (© 2014 UICC.)

Background: The European Randomised study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) has shown significant reductions in prostate cancer mortality after 9 years and 11 years of follow-up, but screening is controversial because of adverse events such as overdiagnosis. We provide updated results of mortality from prostate cancer with follow-up to 2010, with analyses truncated at 9, 11, and 13 years., Methods: ERSPC is a multicentre, randomised trial with a predefined centralised database, analysis plan, and core age group (55-69 years), which assesses prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing in eight European countries. Eligible men aged 50-74 years were identified from population registries and randomly assigned by computer generated random numbers to screening or no intervention (control). Investigators were masked to group allocation. The primary outcome was prostate cancer mortality in the core age group. Analysis was by intention to treat. We did a secondary analysis that corrected for selection bias due to non-participation. Only incidence and no mortality data at 9 years' follow-up are reported for the French centres. This study is registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN49127736., Findings: With data truncated at 13 years of follow-up, 7408 prostate cancer cases were diagnosed in the intervention group and 6107 cases in the control group. The rate ratio of prostate cancer incidence between the intervention and control groups was 1·91 (95% CI 1·83-1·99) after 9 years (1·64 [1·58-1·69] including France), 1·66 (1·60-1·73) after 11 years, and 1·57 (1·51-1·62) after 13 years. The rate ratio of prostate cancer mortality was 0·85 (0·70-1·03) after 9 years, 0·78 (0·66-0·91) after 11 years, and 0·79 (0·69-0·91) at 13 years. The absolute risk reduction of death from prostate cancer at 13 years was 0·11 per 1000 person-years or 1·28 per 1000 men randomised, which is equivalent to one prostate cancer death averted per 781 (95% CI 490-1929) men invited for screening or one per 27 (17-66) additional prostate cancer detected. After adjustment for non-participation, the rate ratio of prostate cancer mortality in men screened was 0·73 (95% CI 0·61-0·88)., Interpretation: In this update the ERSPC confirms a substantial reduction in prostate cancer mortality attributable to testing of PSA, with a substantially increased absolute effect at 13 years compared with findings after 9 and 11 years. Despite our findings, further quantification of harms and their reduction are still considered a prerequisite for the introduction of populated-based screening., Funding: Each centre had its own funding responsibility., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Patient preference for the choice of treatment modality for prostate cancer has increasingly gained attention., Objective: To assess the impact of client-oriented decision on long-term mortality, disease progression and biochemical failure compared with standard treatment protocol (TP)., Methods: With data from a Finnish multicentre, randomized controlled trial with two arms [104 in the enhanced patient participation (EPP) arm and 106 in the TP arm], disease-specific and disease-free survival, biochemical failure with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and disease progression were compared between the two arms using Wilcoxon test and also Cox proportional hazards regression model., Results: Patients in the EPP arm had a higher risk of death by 37% [HR, 1.37 (0.87-2.17)] compared with those in the TP arm. Patients in the EPP arm were at increased risk of having biochemical failure by 14% [HR, 1.14 (0.72-1.79)] and for having disease progression by 2% [HR, 1.02 (0.61-1.70)] compared with those in the TP arm. All the differences were non-significant., Conclusions: Patients actively involved in the choice of treatment had higher risk of prostate cancer death but only slightly increased risk of biochemical failure and clinical disease progression. These findings would provide a good reference when patient autonomy for the choice of treatment modality is addressed., (© 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Prostate cancer (PC) screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) has been shown to decrease PC mortality by the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). We evaluated mortality results in the Finnish Prostate Cancer Screening Trial, the largest component of ERSPC. The primary endpoint was PC-specific mortality., Methods: A total of 80 144 men were identified from the population registry and randomized to either a screening arm (SA) or a control arm (CA). Men in the SA were invited to serum PSA determination up to three times with a 4-year interval between each scan and referred to biopsy if the PSA concentration was greater than or equal to 4.0 ng/mL or 3.0 to 3.99 ng/mL with a free/total PSA ratio less than or equal to 16%. Men in the CA received usual care. The analysis covers follow-up to 12 years from randomization for all men. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated for incidence and mortality using Cox proportional hazard model. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: PC incidence was 8.8 per 1000 person-years in the SA and 6.6 in the CA (HR = 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27 to 1.40). The incidence of advanced PC was lower in the SA vs CA arm (1.2 vs 1.6, respectively; HR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.64 to 0.82; P < .001). For PC mortality, no statistically significant difference was observed between the SA and CA (HR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.69 to 1.04) (with intention-to-screen analysis). To avoid one PC death, we needed to invite 1199 men to screening and to detect 25 PCs. We observed no difference in all-cause mortality between trial arms., Conclusions: At 12 years, a relatively conservative screening protocol produced a small, non-statistically significant PC-specific mortality reduction in the Finnish trial, at the cost of moderate overdiagnosis.

As with wide-spread use of prostate cancer (Pca) screening with prostate-specific antigen testing, overdetection has increasingly gained attention. The authors aimed to estimate absolute risk of overdetection (RO) in Pca screening with various interscreening intervals and ages at start of screening. We estimated age-specific preclinical incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) for progressive cancer (from 128 for age group 55-58 years to 774 for age group 67-71 years) and nonprogressive cancer (from 40 for age group 55-58 years to 66 for age group 67-71 years), the mean sojourn time (7.72 years) and the sensitivity (42.8% at first screen and 59.8% at the second screen) by using a multistep epidemiological model with data from the Finnish randomized controlled trial. The overall number of screens for overdetection (NSO) was 29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 18, 48) for screenees aged 55-67 years, equivalent to 3.4 (95% CI: 2.1, 5.7) overdetected Pcas per 100 screenees. The NSO decreased from 63 (95% CI: 37, 109) at the first screen to 29 (95% CI: 18, 48) at the third screen and from 43 (95% CI: 36, 52) for age 55 years to 25 (95% CI: 8, 75) at age 67 years at the first screen. In conclusion, around 3.4 cases for every 100 screened men would be overdetected during three screen rounds (~ 13 years of follow-up) in the Finnish randomized controlled trial. Elucidating the absolute RO under various scenarios makes contribution for evaluating the benefit and harm of Pca screening., (Copyright © 2011 UICC.)

Background: Population-based screening for prostate cancer (PCa) has used serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) since the early 1990s. However, the efficacy could be affected by screening interval, age ranges of screening, attendance, and contamination of the control group in randomised controlled trials., Objective: Assess the impact of the above-mentioned factors on screening efficacy., Design, Setting, and Participants: Parameters pertaining to the natural history of PCa and sensitivity were estimated using data from the Finnish quadrennial screening program starting at 55 yr of age and terminating at 71 yr of age and comprising 80 458 men (32 000 in the screening arm and 48 458 in the control arm). We performed Markov decision analyses for different screening policies with a simulated 25-yr follow-up., Intervention: PSA screening., Measurements: The impact of different interscreening intervals and target age ranges on advanced PCa (stage III or worse) and PCa mortality was assessed., Results and Limitations: With 65% attendance and 20% contamination, as in the Finnish trial, screening would result in an 11.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.1-13.3%) reduction in advanced cancers and a 7.3% (95% CI, 5.3-9.7%) reduction in PCa death, with corresponding absolute risk difference of 2.6% (95% CI, 1.9-3.5%) and 1.8% (95% CI, 1.4-2.2%), respectively. Numbers needed to screen were 385 to prevent one case of advanced PCa and 556 to prevent one PCa death at 25 yr. Those figures remained similar from 12 yr onwards. Reduction in advanced PCa increased to 40% with annual screening and to 24% with biennial screening. When the age at screening initiation was increased by 5 yr, the benefit was reduced by 9% with annual screening and by 3% with biennial screening., Conclusions: We predicted the impact of basic screening characteristics on the benefit of the program. The screening interval (1-4 yr) had a greater impact on mortality reduction than did the age at start of screening (55-65 yr)., Clinical Trial Registration: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): ISRCTN49127736., (Copyright © 2012 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Several trials evaluating the effect of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing on prostate-cancer mortality have shown conflicting results. We updated prostate-cancer mortality in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer with 2 additional years of follow-up., Methods: The study involved 182,160 men between the ages of 50 and 74 years at entry, with a predefined core age group of 162,388 men 55 to 69 years of age. The trial was conducted in eight European countries. Men who were randomly assigned to the screening group were offered PSA-based screening, whereas those in the control group were not offered such screening. The primary outcome was mortality from prostate cancer., Results: After a median follow-up of 11 years in the core age group, the relative reduction in the risk of death from prostate cancer in the screening group was 21% (rate ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 0.91; P=0.001), and 29% after adjustment for noncompliance. The absolute reduction in mortality in the screening group was 0.10 deaths per 1000 person-years or 1.07 deaths per 1000 men who underwent randomization. The rate ratio for death from prostate cancer during follow-up years 10 and 11 was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.85; P=0.003). To prevent one death from prostate cancer at 11 years of follow-up, 1055 men would need to be invited for screening and 37 cancers would need to be detected. There was no significant between-group difference in all-cause mortality., Conclusions: Analyses after 2 additional years of follow-up consolidated our previous finding that PSA-based screening significantly reduced mortality from prostate cancer but did not affect all-cause mortality. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN49127736.).

To compare the survival between screen-detected and clinically detected cancers, we applied a series of non-homogeneous stochastic processes to deal with leadtime, length bias, and over-detection by using full information on detection modes obtained from the Finnish randomized controlled trial for prostate cancer screening. The results show after 9-year follow-up the hazard ratio of prostate cancer death for screen-detected cases against clinically detected cases increased from 0.24 (95% CI: 0.16-0.35) without correction for these biases, to 0.76 after correction for leadtime and length biases, and finally to 1.03 (95% CI: 0.79-1.33) for a further adjustment for over-detection. Adjustment for leadtime and length bias but no over-detection led to a 24% reduction in prostate cancer death as a result of prostate-specific antigen test. The further calibration of over-detection indicates no gain in survival of screen-detected prostate cancers (excluding over-detected case as stayer considered in the mover-stayer model) as compared with the control group in the absence of screening that is considered as the mover. However, whether the model assumption on over-detection is robust should be validated with other data sets and longer follow-up., (Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.)

Background: Lead-time is defined as the time by which screening advances the diagnosis compared with absence of screening. A sufficiently long lead-time needs to be achieved so that cancer can be detected while still curable. A very short lead-time may indicate poor sensitivity of the screening test, while a very long lead-time suggests overdiagnosis., Material and Methods: In the first screening round, a total of 56,294 men aged 55-74 years were screened with serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) in five countries of the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) with an overall detection rate (prevalence) of 2.8% (1972 prostate cancers). Prostate cancer incidence among 92,142 men randomly allocated to the control arm of the trial was also assessed. Lead-time was estimated as the time required to accumulate a similar cumulative risk of prostate cancer in the control arm to the detection rate in the intervention arm, i.e. from the ratio of detection rate (prevalence of screen-detected cases) and expected incidence (cumulative risk)., Results: Using a serum PSA cut-off of 4 ng/ml, the mean lead-time in the whole study population was estimated as 6.8 years (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 7.9-8.4). It was 8 years in The Netherlands, 6 in Sweden and Finland, 5 in Italy and 4 in Belgium. The mean lead-time was similar, 6-7 years, at ages 50-64 years, but close to 8 years among men aged 65-74 years. A lower PSA cut-off level of 3 ng/ml used in Sweden and The Netherlands prolonged the mean lead-time by approximately 1 year. Lead-time based on advanced prostate cancer only was slightly shorter, mean 5.3 years (95% CI 4.6-6.0). The lead-time for the second screening round was slightly shorter than that for the first (5.9, 95% CI 5.4-6.4), reflecting a similar relation between detection rate and control group incidence., Conclusion: The lead-time for prostate cancer found in ERSPC substantially exceeded that found for breast, cervical and colorectal cancer screening. One round of prostate cancer screening can advance clinical diagnosis by 4-8 years. Overdiagnosis or detection of non-progressive tumours may contribute substantially to the lead-time., (Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) based screening for prostate cancer (PCa) has been shown to reduce prostate specific mortality by 20% in an intention to screen (ITS) analysis in a randomised trial (European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer [ERSPC]). This effect may be diluted by nonattendance in men randomised to the screening arm and contamination in men randomised to the control arm., Objective: To assess the magnitude of the PCa-specific mortality reduction after adjustment for nonattendance and contamination., Design, Setting, and Participants: We analysed the occurrence of PCa deaths during an average follow-up of 9 yr in 162,243 men 55-69 yr of age randomised in seven participating centres of the ERSPC. Centres were also grouped according to the type of randomisation (ie, before or after informed written consent)., Intervention: Nonattendance was defined as nonattending the initial screening round in ERSPC. The estimate of contamination was based on PSA use in controls in ERSPC Rotterdam., Measurements: Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were compared between an ITS analysis and analyses adjusting for nonattendance and contamination using a statistical method developed for this purpose., Results and Limitations: In the ITS analysis, the RR of PCa death in men allocated to the intervention arm relative to the control arm was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.68-0.96). Adjustment for nonattendance resulted in a RR of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.93), and additional adjustment for contamination using two different estimates led to estimated reductions of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.51-0.92) to 0.71 (95% CI, 0.55-0.93), respectively. Contamination data were obtained through extrapolation of single-centre data. No heterogeneity was found between the groups of centres., Conclusions: PSA screening reduces the risk of dying of PCa by up to 31% in men actually screened. This benefit should be weighed against a degree of overdiagnosis and overtreatment inherent in PCa screening.

Test sensitivity pertains to the ability of a test to identify subjects with the target disorder. In cancer screening, test sensitivity can be estimated using interval cancer incidence as an indicator of false-negative result. A randomized trial provides the optimal approach for estimating test sensitivity, as the control arm provides the expected rates. We estimated the sensitivity of the prostate-specific antigen test using incidence method, i.e., based on incidence of interval cancer among subjects with negative screening results, compared with that in the control arm. Data from three centers in the European randomized screening trial were used to estimate interval cancer incidence (I(I)) among 39,389 men with negative screening tests. This was compared with incidence among the 79,525 men in the control arm of the trial (I(c)) to estimate test sensitivity (S = 1 - I(I) / I(C)). Confidence intervals were calculated using simulations, assuming that the number of cases follows a Poisson distribution. The estimated test sensitivity following the first screen was 0.87 (0.83-0.92) in Finland, 0.87 (0.62-1.00) in Sweden, and 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.90-0.96) in the Netherlands. There was some indication of a higher test sensitivity for aggressive cancers (0.85-0.98 for non-organ-confined cases or Gleason 8-10) and for the second screening round (approximately 0.85-0.95). Test sensitivity varied to some extent between the three centers in the European trial, probably reflecting variation in screening protocols, but was acceptable in the first screening round, and may be better for aggressive cancers and in the second screening round.

Objectives: The percentage of free prostate-specific antigen (%fPSA) improves the diagnostic accuracy for prostate cancer when the serum level of total PSA (tPSA) is elevated. Approximately 14% of men with a tPSA below 3 microg/l have prostate cancer on biopsy, but the diagnostic value of %fPSA in such men is rather unknown. The purpose was to estimate the impact of %fPSA on future prostate cancer risk among men with a normal tPSA in prostate cancer screening., Subjects and Methods: The first round of the Finnish arm of the European Randomized Trial for Screening of Prostate Cancer in 1996 to 1999 comprised 20,793 men aged 55-67 yr. Screen-negative men (tPSA level below 3.0 microg/l, n=17,680) were followed up until the end of 2003. Cumulative risk of prostate cancer was calculated as a function of %fPSA., Results: During the median follow-up of 5.8 yr (range, 0-7.7 yr), 327 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 25% of them had a Gleason score of 7 or higher. Five years after the first screening, cumulative risk of prostate cancer was 1.7% (95%CI, 1.5-1.9%). Men with a %fPSA in the lowest quartile (<14.2%) showed a 6.9-fold risk compared with those with a level in the highest quartile (>23.7%)., Conclusions: In men with a low serum tPSA, a low %fPSA is a strong predictor of later diagnosis of prostate cancer.

Finasteride has been reported to reduce prostate cancer risk in asymptomatic men. However, in clinical practice finasteride and alpha-blockers are used to treat benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). We evaluated prostate cancer risk among users of BPH pharmacotherapy at the population level. Comprehensive Finnish national registries provided information on 24723 prostate cancer cases and controls. Overall, prostate cancer risk was elevated among users of both drug categories compared to non-users (odds ratio, OR=1.41; 95% confidence interval, CI 1.31-1.51 for finasteride and OR=1.79; 95% CI 1.67-1.91 for alpha-blockers). However, the risk was lower among finasteride users when compared with alpha-blocker users (OR=0.80; 95% CI 0.64-1.00). Regular finasteride users had the lowest risk. The increased risk is probably due to enhanced diagnostics of prostate cancer in men with BPH. Finasteride use does not decrease prostate cancer incidence compared with non-users. Nevertheless, the risk is lower when compared with alpha-blocker users.

Background: Factors related to the metabolic syndrome and low levels of vitamin D have been implicated as risk factors for prostate cancer. Insofar, no studies have assessed their joint effects on prostate cancer risk., Methods: We studied (a) the associations of vitamin D with the metabolic syndrome factors body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and (b) the prostate cancer risk associated with these factors and especially their joint effects with vitamin D on risk of prostate cancer. We did a longitudinal nested case-control study on 132 prostate cancer cases and 456 matched controls from a cohort of 18,939 Finnish middle-aged men from the Helsinki Heart Study. The odds ratios (OR) of prostate cancer were assessed via conditional logistic regression analysis., Results: Apart from HDL-C, there was no linear association between the metabolic syndrome factors and vitamin D levels. In univariate analysis, men in the highest quartiles of body mass index (>28 kg/m(2)) and systolic blood pressure (>150 mmHg) showed a modest increase in risks of prostate cancer, with ORs of 1.37 (P = 0.16) and 1.53 (P = 0.05) when compared with the three lower quartiles, but low HDL-C entailed no prostate cancer risk. However, with all three factors present, the OR was 3.36 (P = 0.02), and jointly with low vitamin D (

Specificity constitutes a component of validity for a screening test. The number of false-positive (FP) results has been regarded as one of major shortcomings in prostate cancer screening. We estimated the specificity of serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) determination in prostate cancer screening using data from a randomised, controlled screening trial conducted in Finland with 32 000 men in the screening arm. We calculated the specificity as the proportion of men with negative findings (screen negatives, SN) relative to those with negative and FP results (SN/(SN+FP)). A SN finding was defined as either PSA

Objective: We propose three concepts of sensitivity in cancer screening and apply to data on prostate cancer. Conceptual entities: Sensitivity is the indicator on the ability of screening to find cancer in the detectable preclinical phase (DPCP). The ability is usually specified as to the screening test. We call this entity the test sensitivity. Test positivity with histological confirmation refers to the full diagnostic process and we call the corresponding entity as episode sensitivity. Ultimately, a screening programme identifies a proportion of cancers in the DPCP in the total target population, that we call programme sensitivity. We derive the formulae for these three sensitivities consistent with the incidence method., Example: Our example on estimation of the three sensitivities is from a randomized screening trial for prostate cancer in Finland. The estimates by incidence method were substantially different, 85% for test sensitivity, 48% for episode sensitivity and 36% for programme sensitivity., Conclusion: More than one concept of sensitivity with standard method of estimation is needed to describe the ability of screening to identify the disease in the DPCP.

Epidemiologic evidence of sexual history has emerged as a consistently found risk factor for prostate cancer. Some studies have reported an association between human papillomavirus (HPV) infections and prostate cancer. We did a nested case-control study within cohorts of more than 200,000 men enrolled in three Nordic biobanking projects. Follow-up using cancer registry linkages identified 804 prospectively occurring prostate cancer cases. Four control subjects per case were randomly selected from eligible sets of matched subjects that were alive and free of cancer at the time of diagnosis of the corresponding case and were matched to cases on biobank cohort, age (+/-2 years), county of residence, and date of blood sampling (+/-2 months in the Finnish and Swedish cohorts, +/-6 months in the Norwegian cohort). The serum samples were analyzed by standard ELISAs for the presence of immunoglobulin G antibodies against HPV types 16, 18, and 33. The joint HPV-16/HPV-18/HPV-33 seroprevalence in the joint cohort was 13.4% (107 of 799) among cases and 14.0% (363 of 2,596) among controls (odds ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.19). There were no noteworthy differences when the data were analyzed by different HPV type, country, or antibody levels. Our data do not support an association between serologic markers of HPV-16, HPV-18, and HPV-33 infections and risk of prostate cancer.

Objective: We assessed the risk of prostate cancer by exposure to Chlamydia trachomatis., Method: Seven hundred thirty eight cases of prostate cancer and 2,271 matched controls were identified from three serum sample banks in Finland, Norway, and Sweden by linkage to the population based cancer registries., Results: A statistically significant inverse association (odds ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.94) was found. It was consistent by different serotypes and there was a consistent dose-response relationship., Conclusion: C. trachomatis infection is not likely to increase the risk of prostate cancer. Whether the inverse relationship is true or due to difficulties in measuring the true exposure in prostatic tissue by serology, confounders or other sources of error remain open.

We estimated the sensitivity of serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) as a screening test for prostate cancer in the Finnish randomised, population-based prostate cancer screening trial. The study population consisted of 80,458 men aged 55-67 years identified from the national population registry and randomised to the screening or control arm of the trial. The screening algorithm was based on determination of serum PSA concentration. Test sensitivity was estimated based on interval cancer incidence during the first 4 years of follow-up among screening participants with a negative screening test. Interval cancers were defined as those occurring among men with a negative screening test. Altogether, 19 interval cancers were detected among 17,897 men with serum PSA < 3 ng/ml during the first screening interval. A further 5 cases were diagnosed among 811 men with PSA 3.0-3.9 ng/ml with a benign digital rectal examination or free total PSA ratio > or = 0.16. Test sensitivity based on serum PSA of 3 ng/ml was estimated to be 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.84-0.93) and that based on PSA of 4 ng/ml combined with an ancillary test (digital rectal examination or free total PSA ratio in the PSA range 3.0-3.9) was 0.87 (0.82-0.92). Test sensitivity achieved with serum PSA in prostate cancer screening appears excellent in the context of a population-based effectiveness trial., (Copyright 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Background: Information relating to cancer incidence trends in a community forms the scientific basis for the planning and organization of prevention, diagnosis and treatment of cancer. We here estimated the cumulative risk and trends in incidence of prostate cancer in Mumbai, India, using data collected by the Bombay Population-based Cancer Registry from the year 1986 to 2000., Methods: During the 15 year period, a total of 2864 prostate cancer cases (4.7% of all male cancers and 2.4% of all cancers) were registered by the Bombay Population-based Cancer Registry. For evaluation of the trend, we applied a linear regression model based on the logarithm of the observed incidence rates. The annual percentage changes were also computed for the evaluation. Cumulative incidence rates percentages were calculated by adding up the age specific incidence rates at single ages and then expressed as a percentage., Results: Analysis of the trends in age-adjusted incidence rates of prostate cancer during the period 1986 to 2000 showed no statistically significant increase or decrease and the rates proved stable across the various age groups (00-49, 50-69 and 70+) also. The probability estimates indicated that one out of every 59 men will contract a prostate cancer at some time in his whole life and 99% of the chance is after he reaches the age of 50., Conclusion: The stability in age adjusted-incidence rates indicates that there are no changes in the etiological factors for prostate cancer in Mumbai, India. These findings may be of general interest because changes in diagnostic practices are confounded in the time trends of prostate cancer change in many western countries preventing inferences on the changes in risk.

Our objective was to determine whether multivariate algorithms based on serum total PSA, the free proportion of PSA, age, digital rectal examination and prostate volume can reduce the rate of false-positive PSA results in prostate cancer screening more effectively than the proportion of free PSA alone at 95% sensitivity. A total of 1,775 consecutive 55- to 67-year-old men with a serum PSA of 4-10 microg/l in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer were included. To predict the presence of cancer, multivariate algorithms were constructed using logistic regression (LR) and a multilayer perceptron neural network with Bayesian regularization (BR-MLP). A prospective setting was simulated by dividing the data set chronologically into one set for training and validation (67%, n = 1,183) and one test set (33%, n = 592). The diagnostic models were calibrated using the training set to obtain 95% sensitivity. When applied to the test set, the LR model, the BR-MLP model and the proportion of free PSA reached 92%, 87% and 94% sensitivity and reduced 29%, 36% and 22% of the false-positive PSA results, respectively. At a fixed sensitivity of 95% in the test set, the LR model eliminated more false-positive PSA results (22%) than the proportion of free PSA alone (17%) (p < 0.001), whereas the BR-MLP model did not (19%) (p = 0.178). The area under the ROC curve was larger for the LR model (0.764, p = 0.030) and the BR-MLP model (0.760, p = 0.049) than for the proportion of free PSA (0.718). A multivariate algorithm can be used to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies in screening more effectively than the proportion of free PSA alone, but the algorithms will require updating when clinical practice develops with time., (Copyright 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Purpose: Large randomized trials provide the only valid means of quantifying the benefits and drawbacks of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, but the follow-up of ongoing studies is still too short to allow evaluation of mortality. We report here the intermediate indicators of screening efficacy from the second round of the Finnish trial., Experimental Design: The Finnish trial, with approximately 80,000 men in the target population, is the largest component in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. The first round was completed in 1996-1999. Each year 8,000 men 55-67 years of age were randomly assigned to the screening arm, and the rest formed the control arm. Men randomized to the screening arm in 1996 were reinvited 4 years later, in 2000, and PSA was determined., Results: Of the eligible 6415 men, 4407 (69%) eventually participated in the second round of screening. Of the first-round participants, up to 84% (3833 of 4556) attended rescreening. A total of 461 screenees (10.5%) had PSA levels of > or = 4 microg/liter. Altogether, 97 cancers were found, yielding an overall detection rate of 2.2% (97 of 4407). Seventy-nine cases were found among the 3833 second-time screenees (detection rate 2.1%) and 18 in those 574 men (3.1%) who had not participated previously. A PSA of > or = 4 microg/liter, but negative biopsy in the first screening round was associated with an up to 9-fold risk of cancer in rescreening relative to those with lower PSA levels at baseline. Ninety-one (94%) of all of the detected cancers were clinically localized., Conclusions: As surrogate measures of an effective screening program, both compliance as well as the overall and advanced prostate cancer detection rates remained acceptable. Men defined as screen-positive but with a negative confirmation of cancer at prevalence screen formed a high-risk group at rescreening.

Androgens stimulate prostate cancer in vitro and in vivo. However, evidence from epidemiologic studies of an association between circulating levels of androgens and prostate cancer risk has been inconsistent. We investigated the association of serum levels of testosterone, the principal androgen in circulation, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with risk in a case-control study nested in cohorts in Finland, Norway and Sweden of 708 men who were diagnosed with prostate cancer after blood collection and among 2,242 men who were not. In conditional logistic regression analyses, modest but significant decreases in risk were seen for increasing levels of total testosterone down to odds ratio for top vs. bottom quintile of 0.80 (95% CI = 0.59-1.06; p(trend) = 0.05); for SHBG, the corresponding odds ratio was 0.76 (95% CI = 0.57-1.01; p(trend) = 0.07). For free testosterone, calculated from total testosterone and SHBG, a bell-shaped risk pattern was seen with a decrease in odds ratio for top vs. bottom quintile of 0.82 (95% CI = 0.60-1.14; p(trend) = 0.44). No support was found for the hypothesis that high levels of circulating androgens within a physiologic range stimulate development and growth of prostate cancer., (Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Vitamin D inhibits the development and growth of prostate cancer cells. Epidemiologic results on serum vitamin D levels and prostate cancer risk have, however, been inconsistent. We conducted a longitudinal nested case-control study on Nordic men (Norway, Finland and Sweden) using serum banks of 200,000 samples. We studied serum 25(OH)-vitamin D levels of 622 prostate cancer cases and 1,451 matched controls and found that both low (/=80 nmol/l) 25(OH)-vitamin D serum concentrations are associated with higher prostate cancer risk. The normal average serum concentration of 25(OH)-vitamin D (40-60 nmol/l) comprises the lowest risk of prostate cancer. The U-shaped risk of prostate cancer might be due to similar 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3) availability within the prostate: low vitamin D serum concentration apparently leads to a low tissue concentration and to weakened mitotic control of target cells, whereas a high vitamin D level might lead to vitamin D resistance through increased inactivation by enhanced expression of 24-hydroxylase. It is recommended that vitamin D deficiency be supplemented, but too high vitamin D serum level might also enhance cancer development., (Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Objective: To determine whether different approaches in the choice of treatment affect the treatment chosen by the patient for prostate cancer., Patients and Methods: We conducted a randomized trial with 210 men who had a histologically confirmed diagnosis of prostate cancer in 1993-94 at four major hospitals in Finland. After obtaining informed consent the men were randomized either to an intervention arm, in which there was greater patient participation in the choice of treatment following a structured procedure, or a control arm in which the standard approach, i.e. a standardized treatment protocol, was used. The main outcome measure of the analysis was the primary treatment chosen for prostate cancer., Results: In the enhanced participation arm patients not eligible for radical prostatectomy chose orchidectomy less frequently and favoured nonsurgical endocrine treatment than in the treatment protocol arm. Radical prostatectomy was the most commonly chosen treatment option in both arms among men with operable cancer. The way treatment options were presented affected the treatment chosen for prostate cancer., Conclusion: Patients with prostate cancer are willing and able to take an active role in making decisions. The preferences of patients with prostate cancer in the choice of treatment may differ from the priorities of the physicians.

Purpose: Early diagnosis of prostate cancer is a necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisite for an effective screening program aiming at mortality reduction. We compared tumor characteristics between the screening and control arms in the Finnish population-based screening trial., Experimental Design: The Finnish trial is the largest component in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. A total of 24,000 men aged 55-67 years were randomized to the screening arm, whereas 35,973 men formed the control arm during the first three screening years. At the time of invitation, 22,732 men were eligible for screening, and 15,685 (69%) participated. A prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration of > or ==" BORDER="0">4 micro g/liter was defined as a screening-positive finding., Results: The detection rate among screenees was 2.4% (377 of 15,685), whereas 0.6% (40 of 7,047) of nonparticipants in the screening arm and 0.3% (112 of 35,973) of the controls were diagnosed with prostate cancer during the first postrandomization year in the absence of screening. In the screening arm, 82% of the cancers were clinically organ confined compared with 65% in the control arm. Yet, both the absolute number and cumulative incidence of advanced cancer were higher in the screening arm. No differences were seen in the WHO grade distribution between the study groups. The median PSA was substantially lower among screen-detected cases (7.1 micro g/liter) than among nonattenders (15.7 micro g/liter) and controls (13.2 micro g/liter)., Conclusions: Our findings on intermediate indicators of PSA screening provide encouraging, yet inconclusive evidence for eventual mortality reduction.

Objectives: To compare both the acceptability and the complications of prostate biopsy between men attending screening and hospital-referred symptomatic patients. A screening program cannot be successful unless the screening and diagnostic examinations are well tolerated and the willingness to participate is high., Methods: A total of 200 men, comprising 100 participants in the Finnish prostate cancer screening trial and 100 hospital-referred patients with signs or symptoms suggestive of prostate cancer, were consecutively recruited and underwent transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsies. Immediate complications were recorded at the time of examination. Acceptance and possible late complications of biopsy were requested through a self-administered questionnaire, which was returned by 97% of those screened and 84% of the hospital-referred controls., Results: No major complications were seen immediately after biopsy, but one half of the men had minor rectal hemorrhage and, in a few cases, bleeding from the urethra. Most screened (58%) and hospital-referred (65%) subjects felt no distress before biopsy. The procedure was considered unpleasant by 69% of those screened and 61% of the controls. Correspondingly, 52% and 63% of men reported moderate pain at biopsy, but only 3 of those screened (3%) and 4 controls (5%) experienced severe pain. Nevertheless, a great majority of men in both the screening (82%) and the control (86%) groups would be willing to undergo a repeated biopsy if needed. Persistent rectal bleeding and hematuria were common (13% to 35%, respectively), but less than one fourth considered this disturbing. No significant differences were seen either in complications or acceptability between the groups., Conclusions: The results of our study demonstrated that minor complications are equally frequent among men undergoing prostate biopsy for screening and other men. Despite the complications, prostate biopsy was regarded as acceptable. Nevertheless, such complications may impair the acceptability, and eventually, the effectiveness of screening.

Background and Objective: Approximately 70% of the men with an elevated serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) identified in prostate cancer screening do not have prostate cancer. Other available diagnostic variables may be utilized to reduce the number of false positive PSA results, but few algorithms for calculation of the combined impact of multiple variables are available. The objective of this study was to establish nomograms showing the probability of detecting prostate cancer at biopsy on the basis of total PSA, and the percentage of free PSA in serum, prostate volume and digital rectal examination (DRE) findings., Methods: In a randomized, population-based prostate cancer screening trial 10284 men aged 55-67 years were screened during 1996 and 1997 in two metropolitan areas in Finland. Results for men (n=758) with a serum PSA of 4-20 microg/l were used to establish the risk nomograms. Of these 200 (26%) had prostate cancer at biopsy., Results: Prostate cancer probability depended most strongly on the percentage of free PSA. Total PSA, prostate volume, and DRE also contributed to prostate cancer probability, whereas age and family history of prostate cancer did not. More false positive PSA results could be eliminated by using the multivariate risk model rather than the percentage of free PSA (p<0.001) or PSA density (p=0.003) alone., Conclusions: Wide variation in probability of detecting prostate cancer among screened men with a serum PSA of 4-20 microg/l was observed. The nomograms established can be used to avoid or defer biopsy in men with a low prostate cancer probability in spite of a serum PSA level exceeding 4 microg/l.

Purpose: Early detection of prostate cancer has been recommended for men with affected first-degree relatives despite the lack of evidence for mortality reduction. We therefore evaluated the impact of family history in the Finnish prostate cancer screening trial., Patients and Methods: Approximately 80,000 men were identified from the population register for the first screening round. Of the 32,000 men randomized to the screening arm, 30,403 were eligible at the time of invitation. A blood sample was drawn from the participants (n = 20,716), and serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) was determined. Men with a PSA level > or = 4.0 ng/mL were referred for prostate biopsy. Information on family history was obtained through a self-administered questionnaire at baseline., Results: A total of 964 (5%) of the 20,716 screening participants had a positive family history, and 105 (11%) were screening-positive. Twenty-nine tumors were diagnosed, corresponding to a detection rate of 3.0% (29 of 964) and a positive predictive value of 28% (29 of 105). Of the 19,347 men without a family history, 1,487 (8%) had a PSA level > or = 4.0 ng/mL. The detection rate was 2.4% (462 of 19,347) and the positive predictive value was 31% (462 of 1,487). The risk associated with a positive family history was not substantially increased (rate ratio, 1.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.9 to 1.8). The results were not affected by the age of the screenee or age at diagnosis of the affected relative. The program sensitivity was 6% (29 of 491) (ie, selective screening policy would have missed 94% of cancers in the population). No differences were seen in the characteristics of screen-detected cancers by family history., Conclusion: Our findings provide no support for selective screening among men with affected relatives.

Enterolactone, a phytoestrogen belonging to the class of lignans, is produced by the intestinal microflora from precursors in plant foods and has been implicated in protection against cancer. We study the effect of enterolactone on the risk of a subsequent diagnosis of prostate cancer. We conducted a longitudinal, nested case-control study by linkage of 3 biobanks to the cancer registries in Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively. Enterolactone concentrations were measured by time-resolved fluoroimmunoassay in serum from 794 men who had a diagnosis of prostate cancer at a mean follow-up time of 14.2 years after blood collection and among 2,550 control men matched within each cohort for age (+/-2 years), date of blood collection (+/-2 months) and county. The median enterolactone concentrations did not differ between case and control subjects in the full study group (8.4 nmol/L [25th-75th percentile = 4.5-15.0] vs. 8.5 nmol/L [25th-75th percentile = 4.3-15.9]), nor in the national groups. Odds ratios of prostate cancer risk estimated by conditional logistic regression for increasing concentrations of enterolactone in quartiles in the full study group were 1.00 (referent), 1.21 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.96-1.52), 1.16 (95% CI = 0.91-1.47) and 1.08 (95% CI = 0.83-1.39). The OR estimate for the highest vs. the lowest quartile of enterolactone in separate analyses of the Norwegian, Finnish and Swedish cohort was 1.21 (95% CI = 0.91-1.60), 1.02 (95% CI = 0.59-1.76) and 0.87 (95% CI = 0.45-1.67), respectively. No support for the hypothesis that high circulating enterolactone is protective against prostate cancer was found., (Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Objective: Lead-time in prostate cancer screening was estimated using data from the Finnish randomized, population-based trial., Methods: Lead-time was defined as the duration of follow-up needed to accrue the same expected number of incident prostate cancer cases in the absence of screening as detected in the initial screening round. Expected numbers were calculated using an age-cohort model., Results: Based on findings among 10,000 men screened in 1996-1997 with 292 screen-detected cancers, lead-time was estimated as approximately 5-7 years, depending on the reference rates used. This corresponds to a mean duration of the detectable preclinical phase (DPCP) of 10-14 years, given that the cancers were detected on average at the midpoint of the DPCP., Conclusions: The findings suggest that a screening interval substantially longer than the 2 years generally used for mammography screening is unlikely to cause a substantial loss of sensitivity. A long screening interval is further justified in order to diminish the extent of overdiagnosis, until mortality effects can be evaluated.

Two large-scale randomized screening trials, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovary (PLCO) cancer trial in the USA and the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) trial in Europe are currently under way, aimed at assessing whether screening reduces prostate cancer mortality. Up to the end of 1998, 102,691 men have been randomized to the intervention arm and 115,322 to the control arm (which represents 83% of the target sample size) from 7 European countries and 10 screening centers in the USA. The principal screening method at all centers is determination of serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA). The PLCO trial and some European centers use also digital rectal examination (DRE) as an ancillary screening test. In the core age group (55-69 years), 3,362 of 32,486 men screened (10%) had a serum PSA concentration of 4 ng/ml or greater, which is 1 cut-off for biopsy (performed in 84%). An additional 6% was referred for further assessment based on other criteria, with much less efficiency. Differences in PSA by country are largely attributable to the age structure of the study population. The mean age-specific PSA levels are lower in the PLCO trial (1.64 ng/ml [in the age group 55-59 years], 1.80 [60-64 years] and 2.18 [65-69 years) than in the ERSPC trial (1.28-1.71 [55-59], 1.75-2.87 [60-64] and 2.48-3.06 [65-69 years]). Detection rates at the first screen in the ERSPC trial range from 11 to 42/1,000 men screened and reflect underlying differences in incidence rates and screening procedures. In centers with consent to randomization design, adherence in the screening arm is 91%, but less than half of the men in the target population are enrolled in the trial. In population-based centers in which men were randomized prior to consent, all eligible subjects are enrolled, but only about two-thirds of the men in the intervention arm undergo screening. Considerable progress has been made in both trials. Enrollment will be completed in 2001. A substantial number of early prostate cancers have been detected. The differences between countries seem to reflect both underlying prostate cancer incidence and screening policy. The trials have the power to show definitive results in 2005-2008., (Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Purpose: We investigate the validity of prostate specific antigen (PSA) as a screening test for prostate cancer., Materials and Methods: A registry of serum samples drawn from 1968 to 1976 from 21,387 men was linked to the Finnish Cancer Registry. During followup from 1968 to 1991, 104 prostate cancers were identified. A matched case control design with incidence density sampling and nested in the serum sample bank was applied, and PSA was assessed., Results: The estimated sensitivity of the test was 44% and specificity 94% at a cutoff of 4.0 microg./l. in the total material. The sensitivity had improved to 86% in patients diagnosed in 5 years after the sample drawing. The test had a better sensitivity (93%) and specificity (96%) in men younger than 65 years at the time of the sample drawing compared to those older. The sensitivity further improved to 100% with a cutoff of 2.5 microg./l., Conclusions: PSA is a valid screening test for prostate cancer, which compares favorably with mammography for breast cancer. However, until an effect on mortality has been shown, routine screening cannot be recommended.

Objective: To assess the effects of different approaches to decision-making on the treatment chosen for prostate cancer and on the patients' quality of life in prostate cancer., Patients and Methods: A multicentre randomized trial was conducted, including all histologically confirmed cases of prostate cancer diagnosed between September 1993 and November 1994 in four Finnish hospitals. In the intervention group, the role of the patient in the choice of treatment was actively emphasized. In the control group, the treatment was chosen using standardized treatment protocols. The first intermediate endpoint was the patient's participation in decision-making and the next will be the treatment chosen in the intervention and control groups. The main outcome will be the quality of life. Clinical data on prognostic factors including age, tumour grade, stage, functional status and serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration was collected for comparison between the arms, and between those enrolled or not., Results: In all, 210 of 251 eligible patients were randomized into the two arms. Patients were randomized before obtaining informed consent, which led to four patients already randomized refusing to participate. The 41 patients not enrolled were of similar age and grade distribution, but more frequently had extensive disease than had those enrolled in the trial. Three patients were unable to participate because of rapid deterioration in their general condition after randomization. There were no clear differences in baseline characteristics (including age, functional status, tumour grade and stage) of the patients between the arms. The distribution of PSA level differed slightly between the arms, which may require adjustment in the analyses. Patients in the intervention arm participated in decision-making more actively than those in the control arm., Conclusion: Randomized studies on ethical issues such as the patient's role in choosing treatment are feasible and likely to provide important information.

Purpose: Performing biopsy in all men with a serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) of 3 to 3.9 ng./ml. increases the sensitivity of prostate cancer screening compared with a PSA cutoff of 4 ng./ml. but decreases specificity and may contribute to over diagnosis. Therefore, we evaluated the detection rate and specificity attributable to digital rectal examination and percent free PSA within the PSA range of 3 to 3.9 ng./ml., Materials and Methods: Serum PSA was determined in 20,716 participants in the Finnish population based screening trial. Supplementary digital rectal examination was offered to men with a PSA of 3 to 3.9 ng./ml. during 1996 to 1998 (protocol 1). Those with a suspicious digital rectal examination finding were referred for biopsy. The screening algorithm was modified by substituting percent free PSA for digital rectal examination with a cutoff of 16% as a biopsy criterion in 1999 (protocol 2). In addition, biopsies were performed in all men with PSA 4 ng./ml. or greater., Results: A total of 23 cancers (2.9%) were detected by digital rectal examination among 801 men, while percent-free PSA resulted in the diagnosis of 13 cases (4.8%) among 270 men with a PSA of 3 to 3.9 ng./ml. The detection rate of tumors with a Gleason score of 5 or greater increased from 1.6% (13 of 801 cases) to 4.4% (12 of 270) in the modified screening program. The PSA cutoff of 3 ng./ml. alone showed 88.6% and 87.5% specificity in protocols 1 and 2 but specificity increased to 93.3% and 91.7% using digital rectal examination and percent free PSA, respectively., Conclusions: Using percent free PSA increased the detection rate of aggressive disease compared with digital rectal examination and provided higher specificity than PSA alone.

Purpose: It is not known whether screening of asymptomatic men with prostate specific antigen (PSA) decreases the mortality of prostate cancer. We evaluated the extent to which PSA screening identifies clinically significant prostate cancer by analyzing markers of biological aggressiveness., Materials and Methods: We compared prostate cancer in 56 patients in the screening and 21 in the randomized control arm of a population based cohort of 8,975 men 55 to 67 years old participating in the Finnish arm of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer to 47 clinically detected organ confined, 30 clinically detected metastatic and 16 latent prostate tumors identified at autopsy in 46 consecutive subjects. Biological aggressiveness was determined by histological grading using the Gleason and Mostofi scales, tumor proliferation rate by Ki-67 immunostaining, p53 over expression by immunostaining and aneuploidy by fluorescence in situ hybridization using formalin fixed, paraffin embedded tumor specimens., Results: A total of 56 neoplasms were detected in 2,781 men (2%) who participated in PSA screening and 21 were detected in 5,975 nonscreened controls (0.35%) during the study period. Disease in nonscreened controls more often involved a high tumor proliferation rate (p = 0.004) and p53 over expression (p = 0.015) than screening detected disease. At least 1 feature of biological aggressiveness was present in 19% of latent, 34% of screening detected, 51% of clinically detected and organ confined, 62% of randomized control and 87% of metastasis cases. Of the screening detected tumors defined as biologically aggressive 74% were identified at organ confined stages pT1-2N0M0., Conclusions: PSA screening detects a significant number of biologically aggressive cancers at an early clinical stage, implying that screening may decrease mortality.

Objectives: The aim was to evaluate the association between serum vitamin D (25-hydroxyvitamin D) level and risk of prostate cancer., Methods: The nested case-control study was based on a 13-year follow-up of about 19,000 middle-aged men who attended the first screening visit within the Helsinki Heart Study and were free of clinically verified prostate cancer at baseline. Through record linkage with the files of the Finnish Cancer Registry, 149 prostate cancer cases were identified in the cohort. They were matched (1:4) to probability density sampled controls for age, time of sample retrieval, and residence. Serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-VD) at entry were measured for cases and controls. The relative risks of prostate cancer were derived using conditional logistic regression analysis., Results: Prostate cancer risk, analyzed by quartiles of the 25-VD levels, was inversely related to 25-VD. Men with 25-VD concentration below the median had an adjusted relative risk (OR) of 1.7 compared to men with 25-VD level above the median. The prostate cancer risk was highest among younger men (< 52 years) at entry and low serum 25-VD (OR 3.1 nonadjusted and 3.5 adjusted). Among those younger men (< 52 years), low 25-VD entailed a higher risk of non-localized cancers (OR 6.3). The mean age at diagnosis of the patients with 25-VD concentration above the median was 1.8 years higher than that of patients with vitamin D below the median (63.1 vs 61.3 years)., Conclusions: We conclude that low levels of 25-VD associated with an increased risk for subsequent earlier exposure and more aggressive development of prostate cancer, especially before the andropause.

Objectives: To assess whether an artificial neural network (multilayer perceptron, MLP) and logistic regression (LR) could eliminate more false-positive prostate-specific antigen (PSA) results than the proportion of free PSA in a prostate cancer screening., Methods: MLP and LR models were constructed on the basis of data on total PSA, the proportion of free PSA, digital rectal examination (DRE), and prostate volume from 656 consecutive men (aged 55 to 67 years) with total serum PSA concentrations of 4 to 10 ng/mL in the randomized population-based prostate cancer screening study in Finland. The MLP and LR models were validated using the "leave-one-out" method., Results: Of the 656 men, 23% had prostate cancer and 77% had either normal prostatic histology or a benign disease. At a 95% sensitivity level, 19% of the false-positive PSA results could be eliminated by using the proportion of free PSA versus 24% with the LR model and 33% with the MLP model (P < 0.001). At 80% to 99% sensitivity levels, the accuracy of the MLP and LR models was significantly higher than that of the proportion of free PSA. At 89% to 99% sensitivities, the accuracy of the MLP was higher than that of LR (P

High serum levels of insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and low levels of IGF-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) have been shown to correlate with increased prostate cancer risk. To evaluate this, IGF-I, IGFBP-3, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) were measured in serum from 665 consecutive men (179 with prostate cancer), aged 55-67 yr, with elevated serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA; > or = 4 microg/L) in a screening trial. Men in the highest quartile of IGF-I levels had an odds ratio (OR) for prostate cancer of 0.50 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.26-0.97] when adjusting for serum IGFBP-3. IGFBP-3 itself was not significantly associated with prostate cancer risk (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.68-2.24). Prostate volume was larger in men without than in those with prostate cancer (P < 0.001), and after adjustment for prostate volume, the negative association between serum IGF-I and prostate cancer risk was no longer significant (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.28-1.16). In screen-positive men with elevated serum PSA, serum IGF-I is not a useful diagnostic test for prostate cancer, but it may be associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia and enlargement.

Background: It has been hypothesized that high androgen levels are determinants of prostate carcinoma., Methods: Serum concentrations of testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), and androstenedione were analyzed to determine their role as predictors of prostate carcinoma in a longitudinal, population-based, nested case-control study. The serum concentrations of testosterone, SHBG, and androstenedione were determined from serum samples collected by the Finnish Mobile Clinic Health Examination Survey between 1968-1972 and stored at -20 degrees C. During a follow-up period of 24 years, a total of 166 prostate carcinoma cases occurred among men who originally were cancer free. Two controls (matched for age and municipality) were chosen., Results: There was no association between serum testosterone, SHBG, or androstenedione concentrations and the occurrence of subsequent prostate carcinoma in the total study population or in subgroups determined based on age or body mass index. The association was not strengthened by simultaneous adjustment for the hormonal variables., Conclusions: The results of the current study do not appear to corroborate the hypothesis that serum testosterone, SHBG, or androstenedione are determinants of the subsequent occurrence of prostate carcinoma.

Approximately 20000 men 55-67 years of age from two areas in Finland were identified from the Population Registry and randomized either to the screening arm (1/3) or the control arm (2/3) of a prostate cancer screening trial. In the first round, the participation rate in the screening arm was 69%. Of the 5053 screened participants, 428 (8.5%) had a serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration of 4.0 ng/ml or higher, and diagnostic examinations were performed on 399 of them. A total of 106 cancers were detected among them corresponding to a positive predictive value of 27%, which is comparable with mammography screening for breast cancer. The prostate cancer detection rate based on a serum PSA concentration of 4.0 ng ml(-1) or higher was 2.1%. Approximately nine out of ten screen-detected prostate cancers were localized (85% clinical stage T1-T2) and well or moderately differentiated (42% World Health Organization (WHO) grade I and 50% grade II), which suggests a higher proportion of curable cancers compared with cases detected by other means.

The possibility of screening the general population for prostate cancer using serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level (alone or in combination with other tests) as screening test has recently been discussed. A number of studies are on the way, but the published reports have almost exclusively been based on men volunteering for screening. We assessed the feasibility of a screening study based on men identified from a central population registry. A random sample of 600 men in the age groups 55, 60 and 65 years was identified from the Finnish Population Registry as the study population. Half of them were randomised to the intervention group and an invitation to participate was sent to them. The participation rate was 77% (230 out of 300). Twenty-five men had a serum PSA concentration of 4.0 micrograms l-1 or above and were invited for further examination including digital rectal examination, transrectal ultrasound and transrectal Tru-cut biopsies (directed and/or random). Six cases of cancer were detected among the 230 participating men, which corresponds to a detection rate of 2.6% and a positive predictive value of 24%. The number of cases detected is equivalent to the expected number of prostate cancer cases during a 10 year follow-up in this population. The ratio of free to total PSA was also measured and a cut-off level of 0.20 was chosen. Its use as an additional criterion of the screening test would have decreased the prevalence of false-positive screening tests from 8% (19 of 230) to 3% (7 of 230) at a cost of missing one of the six cancers compared with serum total PSA concentration alone. Of the six cancers, five were clinically regarded as localised and locally confined disease was confirmed pathologically in four of them. In conclusion, a population-based study in Finland seems feasible and the properties of the PSA test can be regarded as suitable for a randomised screening study. Thus, all prerequisites for a multicentre study, which is planned, seem to exist.