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Background The incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is higher in women than in men but whether sex steroid hormones contribute to this difference remains unclear. Studies of reproductive and hormonal factors and thyroid cancer risk have provided inconsistent results. Methods Original data from 1 252 907 women in 16 cohorts in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia were combined to evaluate associations of DTC risk with reproductive and hormonal factors. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Results During follow-up, 2142 women were diagnosed with DTC. Factors associated with higher risk of DTC included younger age at menarche (<10 vs 10–11 years; HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.00–1.64), younger (<40; HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.05–1.62) and older (≥55; HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.05–1.68) ages at menopause (vs 40–44 years), ever use of menopausal hormone therapy (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02–1.33) and previous hysterectomy (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.13–1.39) or bilateral oophorectomy (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00–1.29). Factors associated with lower risk included longer-term use (≥5 vs <5 years) of oral contraceptives (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76–0.96) among those who ever used oral contraception and baseline post-menopausal status (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70–0.96). No associations were observed for parity, duration of menopausal hormone therapy use or lifetime number of reproductive years or ovulatory cycles. Conclusions Our study provides some evidence linking reproductive and hormonal factors with risk of DTC. Results should be interpreted cautiously considering the modest strength of the associations and potential for exposure misclassification and detection bias. Prospective studies of pre-diagnostic circulating sex steroid hormone measurements and DTC risk may provide additional insight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predict Breast (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online prognostication and treatment benefit tool for early invasive breast cancer. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of progesterone receptor (PR) status into a new version of PREDICT and to compare its performance to the current version (2.2). The prognostic effect of PR status was based on the analysis of data from 45,088 European patients with breast cancer from 49 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratio for PR status. Data from a New Zealand study of 11,365 patients with early invasive breast cancer were used for external validation. Model calibration and discrimination were used to test the model performance. Having a PR-positive tumour was associated with a 23% and 28% lower risk of dying from breast cancer for women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative and ER-positive breast cancer, respectively. The area under the ROC curve increased with the addition of PR status from 0.807 to 0.809 for patients with ER-negative tumours (p = 0.023) and from 0.898 to 0.902 for patients with ER-positive tumours (p = 2.3 × 10−6) in the New Zealand cohort. Model calibration was modest with 940 observed deaths compared to 1151 predicted. The inclusion of the prognostic effect of PR status to PREDICT Breast has led to an improvement of model performance and more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients. Further studies should determine whether the baseline hazard function requires recalibration. • PR) status is associated with a better prognosis after adjusting for other factors. • PREDICT with the inclusion of PR was assessed by calibration and discrimination. • addition of PR status improved model performance in terms of discrimination. • Calibration in an external dataset showed over-estimation of breast cancer mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identification of new genetic markers may improve the prediction of colorectal cancer prognosis. Our objective was to examine genome-wide associations of germline genetic variants with disease-specific survival in an analysis of 16,964 cases of colorectal cancer. We analyzed genotype and colorectal cancer-specific survival data from a consortium of 15 studies. Approximately 7.5 million SNPs were examined under the log-additive model using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for clinical factors and principal components. Additionally, we ran secondary analyses stratifying by tumor site and disease stage. We used a genome-wide p-value threshold of 5 × 10–8 to assess statistical significance. No variants were statistically significantly associated with disease-specific survival in the full case analysis or in the stage-stratified analyses. Three SNPs were statistically significantly associated with disease-specific survival for cases with tumors located in the distal colon (rs698022, HR = 1.48, CI 1.30–1.69, p = 8.47 × 10–9) and the proximal colon (rs189655236, HR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.65–2.77, p = 9.19 × 10–9 and rs144717887, HR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.57–2.58, p = 3.14 × 10–8), whereas no associations were detected for rectal tumors. Findings from this large genome-wide association study highlight the potential for anatomical-site-stratified genome-wide studies to identify germline genetic risk variants associated with colorectal cancer-specific survival. Larger sample sizes and further replication efforts are needed to more fully interpret these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although a potential inverse association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk has been reported, epidemiological evidence is inconsistent. This research aimed to elucidate the association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk by conducting a pooled analysis of data from prospective cohort studies.Methods: Vegetable intake in relation to bladder cancer risk was examined by pooling individual-level data from 13 cohort studies, comprising 3203 cases among a total of 555,685 participants. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by cohort for intakes of total vegetable, vegetable subtypes (i.e. non-starchy, starchy, green leafy and cruciferous vegetables) and individual vegetable types. In addition, a diet diversity score was used to assess the association of the varied types of vegetable intake on bladder cancer risk.Results: The association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk differed by sex (P-interaction = 0.011) and smoking status (P-interaction = 0.038); therefore, analyses were stratified by sex and smoking status. With adjustment of age, sex, smoking, energy intake, ethnicity and other potential dietary factors, we found that higher intake of total and non-starchy vegetables were inversely associated with the risk of bladder cancer among women (comparing the highest with lowest intake tertile: HR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.64-0.98, P = 0.037 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.81-0.99; HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.63-0.97, P = 0.034 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79-0.98, respectively). However, no evidence of association was observed among men, and the intake of vegetable was not found to be associated with bladder cancer when stratified by smoking status. Moreover, we found no evidence of association for diet diversity with bladder cancer risk.Conclusion: Higher intakes of total and non-starchy vegetable are associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer for women. Further studies are needed to clarify whether these results reflect causal processes and potential underlying mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tumour DNA methylation profiling has shown potential to refine disease subtyping and improve the diagnosis and prognosis prediction of breast cancer. However, limited data exist regarding invasive lobular breast cancer (ILBC). Here, we investigated the genome-wide variability of DNA methylation levels across ILBC tumours and assessed the association between methylation levels at the variably methylated regions and overall survival in women with ILBC. Methods: Tumour-enriched DNA was prepared by macrodissecting formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tumour tissue from 130 ILBCs diagnosed in the participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). Genome-wide tumour DNA methylation was measured using the HumanMethylation 450K (HM450K) BeadChip array. Variably methylated regions (VMRs) were identified using the DMRcate package in R. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between methylation levels at the ten most significant VMRs and overall survival. Gene set enrichment analyses were undertaken using the web-based tool Metaspace. Replication of the VMR and survival analysis findings was examined using data retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) for 168 ILBC cases. We also examined the correlation between methylation and gene expression for the ten VMRs of interest using TCGA data. Results: We identified 2771 VMRs (P < 10−8) in ILBC tumours. The ten most variably methylated clusters were predominantly located in the promoter region of the genes: ISM1, APC, TMEM101, ASCL2, NKX6, HIST3H2A/HIST3H2BB, HCG4P3, HES5, CELF2 and EFCAB4B. Higher methylation level at several of these VMRs showed an association with reduced overall survival in the MCCS. In TCGA, all associations were in the same direction, however stronger than in the MCCS. The pooled analysis of the MCCS and TCGA data showed that methylation at four of the ten genes was associated with reduced overall survival, independently of age and tumour stage; APC: Hazard Ratio (95% Confidence interval) per one-unit M-value increase: 1.18 (1.02–1.36), TMEM101: 1.23 (1.02–1.48), HCG4P3: 1.37 (1.05–1.79) and CELF2: 1.21 (1.02–1.43). A negative correlation was observed between methylation and gene expression for CELF2 (R = − 0.25, P = 0.001), but not for TMEM101 and APC. Conclusions: Our study identified regions showing greatest variability across the ILBC tumour genome and found methylation at several genes to potentially serve as a biomarker of survival for women with ILBC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is known to have a female predominance while other biliary tract cancers (BTCs) have a male predominance. However, the role of female reproductive factors in BTC etiology remains unclear. We pooled data from 19 studies of >1.5 million women participating in the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project to examine the associations of parity, age at menarche, reproductive years, and age at menopause with BTC. Associations for age at menarche and reproductive years with BTC were analyzed separately for Asian and non-Asian women. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by study. During 21,681,798 person-years of follow-up, 875 cases of GBC, 379 of intrahepatic bile duct cancer (IHBDC), 450 of extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EHBDC), and 261 of ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC) occurred. High parity was associated with risk of GBC (HR ≥5 vs. 0 births 1.72; 95% CI 1.25–2.38). Age at menarche (HR per year increase 1.15; 95% CI 1.06–1.24) was associated with GBC risk in Asian women while reproductive years were associated with GBC risk (HR per 5 years 1.13; 95% CI 1.04–1.22) in non-Asian women. Later age at menarche was associated with IHBDC (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.09–1.31) and EHBDC (HR 1.11; 95% CI 1.01–1.22) in Asian women only. We observed an increased risk of GBC with increasing parity. Among Asian women, older age at menarche was associated with increased risk for GBC, IHBDC, and EHBDC, while increasing reproductive years was associated with GBC in non-Asian women. These results suggest that sex hormones have distinct effects on cancers across the biliary tract that vary by geography. Our findings show that the risk of gallbladder cancer is increased among women who have given birth (especially women with 5 or more children). In women from Asian countries, later age at menarche increases the risk of gallbladder cancer, intrahepatic bile duct cancer and extrahepatic bile duct cancer. We did not see this same association in women from Western countries. Age at menopause was not associated with the risk of any biliary tract cancers. • We pooled data from 19 longitudinal studies to estimate the associations between female reproductive factors and BTC. • The risk of GBC was increased with increasing number of live births in all women. • The risk of GBC, IHBDC, and EHBDC were increased with later age of menarche among women from Asian countries only. • Age of menopause was not associated with an increased risk of any BTC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Study Question: How does the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) vary with type and age of menopause?Summary Answer: Earlier surgical menopause (e.g. <45 years) poses additional increased risk of incident CVD events, compared to women with natural menopause at the same age, and HRT use reduced the risk of CVD in women with early surgical menopause.What Is Known Already: Earlier age at menopause has been linked to an increased risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality, but the extent that this risk of CVD varies by type of menopause and the role of postmenopausal HRT use in reducing this risk is unclear.Study Design, Size, Duration: Pooled individual-level data of 203 767 postmenopausal women from 10 observational studies that contribute to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE) consortium were included in the analysis.Participants/materials, Setting, Methods: Postmenopausal women who had reported menopause (type and age of menopause) and information on non-fatal CVD events were included. Type of menopause (natural menopause and surgical menopause) and age at menopause (categorised as <35, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54 and ≥55 years) were exposures of interest. Natural menopause was defined as absence of menstruation over a period of 12 months (no hysterectomy and/or oophorectomy) and surgical menopause as removal of both ovaries. The study outcome was the first non-fatal CVD (defined as either incident coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke) event ascertained from hospital medical records or self-reported. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI for non-fatal CVD events associated with natural menopause and surgical menopause.Main Results and the Role Of Chance: Compared with natural menopause, surgical menopause was associated with over 20% higher risk of CVD (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16-1.28). After the stratified analysis by age at menopause, a graded relationship for incident CVD was observed with lower age at menopause in both types of natural and surgical menopause. There was also a significant interaction between type of menopause and age at menopause (P < 0.001). Compared with natural menopause at 50-54 years, women with surgical menopause before 35 (2.55, 2.22-2.94) and 35-39 years (1.91, 1.71-2.14) had higher risk of CVD than those with natural menopause (1.59, 1.23-2.05 and 1.51, 1.33-1.72, respectively). Women who experienced surgical menopause at earlier age (<50 years) and took HRT had lower risk of incident CHD than those who were not users of HRT.Limitations, Reasons For Caution: Self-reported data on type and age of menopause, no information on indication for the surgery (e.g. endometriosis and fibroids) and the exclusion of fatal CVD events may bias our results.Wider Implications Of the Findings: In clinical practice, women who experienced natural menopause or had surgical menopause at an earlier age need close monitoring and engagement for preventive health measures and early diagnosis of CVD. Our findings also suggested that timing of menopause should be considered as an important factor in risk assessment of CVD for women. The findings on CVD lend some support to the position that elective bilateral oophorectomy (surgical menopause) at hysterectomy for benign diseases should be discouraged based on an increased risk of CVD.Study Funding/competing Interest(s): InterLACE project is funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grant (APP1027196). GDM is supported by Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Principal Research Fellowship (APP1121844). There are no competing interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence on the endometrial and ovarian cancer burden preventable through modifications to current causal behavioural and hormonal exposures is limited. Whether the burden differs by population subgroup is unknown. We linked pooled data from six Australian cohort studies to national cancer and death registries, and quantified exposure-cancer associations using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative health surveys. We then calculated Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. During a median 4.9 years follow-up, 510 incident endometrial and 303 ovarian cancers were diagnosed. Overweight and obesity explained 41.9% (95% CI 32.3–50.1) of the endometrial cancer burden and obesity alone 34.5% (95% CI 27.5–40.9). This translates to 12,800 and 10,500 endometrial cancers in Australia in the next 10 years, respectively. The body fatness-related endometrial cancer burden was highest (49–87%) among women with diabetes, living remotely, of older age, lower socio-economic status or educational attainment and born in Australia. Never use of oral contraceptives (OCs) explained 8.1% (95% CI 1.8–14.1) or 2500 endometrial cancers. A higher BMI and current long-term MHT use increased, and long-term OC use decreased, the risk of ovarian cancer, but the burden attributable to overweight, obesity or exogenous hormonal factors was not statistically significant. Excess body fatness, a trait that is of high and increasing prevalence globally, is responsible for a large proportion of the endometrial cancer burden, indicating the need for effective strategies to reduce adiposity. • Contemporary estimates of endometrial cancer burden attributable to body fatness. • Overweight and obesity explain 42%, and obesity alone explains 35% of endometrial cancers. • First estimates of future endometrial cancer burden for population subgroups. • Overweight and obesity explain 49–87% of the endometrial cancer burden for some subgroups of women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Parity is widely recognized as protective for breast cancer, but breast cancer risk may be increased shortly after childbirth. Whether this risk varies with breastfeeding, family history of breast cancer, or specific tumor subtype has rarely been evaluated.Objective: To characterize breast cancer risk in relation to recent childbirth.Design: Pooled analysis of individual-level data from 15 prospective cohort studies.Setting: The international Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group.Participants: Women younger than 55 years.Measurements: During 9.6 million person-years of follow-up, 18 826 incident cases of breast cancer were diagnosed. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for breast cancer were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression.Results: Compared with nulliparous women, parous women had an HR for breast cancer that peaked about 5 years after birth (HR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.63 to 1.99]) before decreasing to 0.77 (CI, 0.67 to 0.88) after 34 years. The association crossed over from positive to negative about 24 years after birth. The overall pattern was driven by estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer; no crossover was seen for ER-negative cancer. Increases in breast cancer risk after childbirth were pronounced when combined with a family history of breast cancer and were greater for women who were older at first birth or who had more births. Breastfeeding did not modify overall risk patterns.Limitations: Breast cancer diagnoses during pregnancy were not uniformly distinguishable from early postpartum diagnoses. Data on human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) oncogene overexpression were limited.Conclusion: Compared with nulliparous women, parous women have an increased risk for breast cancer for more than 20 years after childbirth. Health care providers should consider recent childbirth a risk factor for breast cancer in young women.Primary Funding Source: The Avon Foundation, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Breast Cancer Now and the UK National Health Service, and the Institute of Cancer Research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate relationships between mortality and circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25(OH)D3) and 25-hydroxyergocalciferol (25(OH)D2).Design: Case-cohort study within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). We measured 25(OH)D2 and 25(OH)D3 in archived dried blood spots by LC-MS/MS. Cox regression was used to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HR), with adjustment for confounders.Setting: General community.Subjects: The MCCS included 29 206 participants, who at recruitment in 1990-1994 were aged 40-69 years, had dried blood spots collected and no history of cancer. For the present study we selected participants who died by 31 December 2007 (n 2410) and a random sample (sub-cohort, n 2996).Results: The HR per 25 nmol/l increment in concentration of 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 were 0·86 (95 % CI 0·78, 0·96; P=0·007) and 0·85 (95 % CI 0·77, 0·95; P=0·003), respectively. Of 5108 participants, sixty-three (1·2 %) had detectable 25(OH)D2; their mean 25(OH)D concentration was 11·9 (95 % CI 7·3, 16·6) nmol/l higher (P<0·001). The HR for detectable 25(OH)D2 was 1·80 (95 % CI 1·09, 2·97; P=0·023); for those with detectable 25(OH)D2, the HR per 25 nmol/l increment in 25(OH)D was 1·06 (95 % CI 0·87, 1·29; P interaction=0·02). HR were similar for participants who reported being in good, very good or excellent health four years after recruitment.Conclusions: Total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 concentrations were inversely associated with mortality. The finding that the inverse association for 25(OH)D was restricted to those with no detectable 25(OH)D2 requires confirmation in populations with higher exposure to ergocalciferol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Initially submitted February 1, 2016; accepted for publication August 4, 2016. The ability to classify people according to their underlying genetic susceptibility to a disease is increasing with new knowledge, better family data, and more sophisticated risk prediction models, allowing for more effective prevention and screening. To do so, however, we need to know whether risk associations are the same for people with different genetic susceptibilities. To illustrate one way to estimate such gene-environment interactions, we used prospective data from 3 Australian family cancer cohort studies, 2 enriched for familial risk of breast cancer. There were 288 incident breast cancers in 9,126 participants from 3,222 families. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate whether associations of breast cancer with body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) at age 18-21 years, BMI at baseline, and change in BMI differed according to genetic risk based on lifetime breast cancer risk from birth, as estimated by BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) software, adjusted for age at baseline data collection. Although no interactions were statistically significant, we have demonstrated the power with which gene-environment interactions can be investigated using a cohort enriched for persons with increased genetic risk and a continuous measure of genetic risk based on family history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People with a DNA mismatch repair (MMR) gene mutation have a substantially elevated risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) but the modifiers of this risk are not well established. We investigated the association between dietary supplement intake and CRC risk for carriers.Methods: This study included 1966 (56% female) carriers of an MMR gene mutation (719 MLH1, 931 MSH2, 211 MSH6 and 105 PMS2) who were recruited from the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand into the Colon Cancer Family Registry between 1997 and 2012. Information on lifestyle factors including supplement intake was collected at the time of recruitment. Using Cox proportional hazards regression weighted to correct for ascertainment bias, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between self-reported multivitamin, calcium and folic acid supplement intake and CRC risk.Results: Of 744 carriers with CRC, 18%, 6% and 5% reported intake of multivitamin, calcium and folic acid supplements for at least 1 month, respectively, compared with 27%, 11% and 10% of 1222 carriers without CRC. After adjusting for identified confounding variables, a decreased CRC risk was associated with multivitam inintake for at least 3 years (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.32-0.69) and calcium intake for at least 3 years(HR 0.42, 95% CI 0.23-0.74), compared with never users. There was no evidence of an association between folic acid supplement intake and CRC risk (P = 0.82).Conclusion: Intake of multivitamin and calcium supplements might be associated with a decreased risk of CRC for MMR gene mutation carriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Breast cancer aetiology may differ by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Associations of alcohol and folate intakes with risk of breast cancer defined by ER status were examined in pooled analyses of the primary data from 20 cohorts.Methods: During a maximum of 6-18 years of follow-up of 1 089 273 women, 21 624 ER+ and 5113 ER- breast cancers were identified. Study-specific multivariable relative risks (RRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and then combined using a random-effects model.Results: Alcohol consumption was positively associated with risk of ER+ and ER- breast cancer. The pooled multivariable RRs (95% confidence intervals) comparing ≥ 30 g/d with 0 g/day of alcohol consumption were 1.35 (1.23-1.48) for ER+ and 1.28 (1.10-1.49) for ER- breast cancer (Ptrend ≤ 0.001; Pcommon-effects by ER status: 0.57). Associations were similar for alcohol intake from beer, wine and liquor. The associations with alcohol intake did not vary significantly by total (from foods and supplements) folate intake (Pinteraction ≥ 0.26). Dietary (from foods only) and total folate intakes were not associated with risk of overall, ER+ and ER- breast cancer; pooled multivariable RRs ranged from 0.98 to 1.02 comparing extreme quintiles. Following-up US studies through only the period before mandatory folic acid fortification did not change the results. The alcohol and folate associations did not vary by tumour subtypes defined by progesterone receptor status.Conclusions: Alcohol consumption was positively associated with risk of both ER+ and ER- breast cancer, even among women with high folate intake. Folate intake was not associated with breast cancer risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies reporting the association between change in weight or body mass index during midlife and risk of colorectal cancer have found inconsistent results, and only one study to date has reported the association between change in waist circumference (a measure of central adiposity) and risk of colorectal cancer.Methods: We investigated the association between risk of colorectal cancer and changes in directly measured waist circumference and weight from baseline (1990-1994) to wave 2 (2003-2007). Cox regression, with age as the time metric and follow-up starting at wave 2, adjusted for covariates selected from a causal model, was used to estimate the Hazard Ratios (HRs) and 95 % Confidence Intervals (CIs) for the change in waist circumference and weight in relation to risk of colorectal cancer.Results: A total of 373 cases of colorectal cancer were diagnosed during an average 9 years of follow-up of 20,605 participants. Increases in waist circumference and weight were not associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (HR per 5 cm increase in waist circumference = 1.02; 95 % CI: 0.95, 1.10; HR per 5 kg increase in weight = 0.93; 0.85, 1.02). For individuals with a waist circumference at baseline that was less than the sex-specific mean value there was a slight increased risk of colorectal cancer associated with a 5 cm increase in waist circumference at wave 2 (HR = 1.08; 0.97, 1.21).Conclusion: Increases in waist circumference and weight during midlife do not appear to be associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inheritance of a germline mutation in one of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 causes a high risk of colorectal and other cancers (Lynch Syndrome). Use of aspirin has been shown to be associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer for the general population as well as for MMR gene mutation carriers. The aim of this study was to determine whether use of aspirin and ibuprofen in a nontrial setting is associated with the risk of colorectal cancer risk for MMR gene mutation carriers. Methods: We included 1858 participants in the Colon Cancer Family Registry who had been found to have a pathogenic germline mutation in a MMR gene (carriers). We used weighted Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: A total of 714 carriers (38%) were diagnosed with colorectal cancer at a mean age of 42.4 (standard deviation 10.6) years. A reduced risk of colorectal cancer was associated with aspirin use (for 1 month to 4.9 years: HR = 0.49, 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.90, P = .02; for ≥5 years: HR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.10 to 0.62, P = .003) and ibuprofen use (for 1 month to 4.9 years: HR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.79, P = .009; for ≥5 years: HR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.10 to 0.69, P = .007), compared with less than one month of use. Conclusion: Our results provide additional evidence that, for MMR gene mutation carriers, use of aspirin and ibuprofen might be effective in reducing their high risk of colorectal cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Associations between anthropometry and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk are inconsistent. We aimed to evaluate these associations while minimizing biases found in previous studies. Methods: We pooled data from 1 941 300 participants, including 3760 cases, in 20 cohort studies and used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of anthropometric measures with HNC risk overall and stratified by smoking status. Results: Greater waist circumference (per 5cm: HR=1.04, 95% CI 1.03-1.05, P-value for trend=<0.0001) and waist-to-hip ratio (per 0.1 unit: HR=1.07, 95% CI 1.05-1.09, P-value for trend=<0.0001), adjusted for body mass index (BMI), were associated with higher risk and did not vary by smoking status (P-value for heterogeneity=0.85 and 0.44, respectively). Associations with BMI (P-value for interaction=<0.0001) varied by smoking status. Larger BMI was associated with higher HNC risk in never smokers (per 5 kg/m2: HR=1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.24, P-value for trend=0.0006), but not in former smokers (per 5 kg/m2: HR=0.99, 95% CI 0.93-1.06, P-value for trend=0.79) or current smokers (per 5 kg/m2: HR=0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.82, P-value for trend=<0.0001). Larger hip circumference was not associated with a higher HNC risk. Greater height (per 5cm) was associated with higher risk of HNC in never and former smokers, but not in current smokers. Conclusions: Waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio were associated positively with HNC risk regardless of smoking status, whereas a positive association with BMI was only found in never smokers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective The increased prevalence of osteoarthritis (OA) in postmenopausal women suggests that changes in either circulating sex steroid concentrations or the tissue response to sex steroids may have a role in the pathogenesis of OA. The aim of this study was to examine whether circulating sex steroid concentrations are associated with the incidence of total knee and total hip replacement for OA. Methods Study subjects (n = 2,621; all women) were recruited in 1990-1994 from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). Circulating sex steroid concentrations were measured in blood samples obtained from the women at the time of recruitment. The incidence of total knee and total hip replacement for OA during 2001-2011 was determined by linking the MCCS records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Results During the followup period, 115 women had undergone total knee replacement and 99 had undergone total hip replacement for OA. Greater log-transformed concentrations of estradiol were associated with a lower incidence of knee replacement (hazard ratio [HR] 0.70, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.50-0.96), and greater log-transformed concentrations of androstenedione were associated with a lower incidence of hip replacement (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.52-0.93). In contrast, greater log-transformed concentrations of sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) were associated with a higher incidence of hip replacement (HR 1.70, 95% CI 1.05-2.77). Conclusion A lower estradiol concentration is a risk factor for knee OA, while a lower androstenedione concentration and higher SHBG concentration are risk factors for hip OA in women. These findings suggest that circulating sex steroids have a role in the pathogenesis of OA, and that modifying these steroid concentrations may provide a potential strategy for the prevention and treatment of knee and hip OA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective. The data are conflicting for the association between the index-to-ring finger length ratio (2D:4D) and the risk of OA. The aim of this cohort study was to examine the relationship between 2D:4D and the risk of severe knee and hip OA requiring total joint replacement.Methods. A total of 14 511 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study had 2D:4D assessed from hand photocopies. The incidence of total knee replacement and total hip replacement between 2001 and 2011 was determined by linking the cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry.Results. Over an average 10.5 years of follow-up, 580 participants had total knee replacement and 499 had total hip replacement. Greater right 2D:4D [hazard ratio (HR) 0.91 for a s.d. increase in 2D:4D, 95% CI 0.84, 0.99, P = 0.03] and average right and left 2D:4D (HR 0.91 for a s.d. increase in 2D:4D, 95% CI 0.84, 0.99, P = 0.02) were associated with a reduced incidence of total knee replacement. These associations persisted when participants whose fingers had any features that might have affected the validity of 2D:4D measurements were excluded. No significant associations were observed between 2D:4D and the incidence of total hip replacement.Conclusion. A lower 2D:4D is associated with an increased risk of severe knee OA requiring total knee replacement, but not the risk of severe hip OA. The underlying mechanisms for the association warrant further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Objectives. To examine the relationships between weight at early and middle adulthood and adult weight gain and the risk of total knee and hip replacement for OA.Methods. At baseline interview during 1990–94, 38 149 participants [mean age 54.9 (s.d. 8.6) years] of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study were asked to recall their weight at age 18–21 years and had their middle age height and weight measured. Total knee and hip replacement for OA between 2001 and 2009 was determined by linking the cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry.Results. Greater weight and BMI at age 18–21 years and middle age, weight gain and persistent overweight during this time were associated with an increased risk of total knee and hip replacement. Middle age weight [hazard ratio (HR) per 5 kg 1.25 (95% CI 1.23, 1.27) for knee vs 1.11 (1.09, 1.14) for hip] and BMI [HR per 5 kg/m2 1.80 (1.72, 1.89) vs 1.29 (1.21, 1.37)] and adult weight gain [HR per 5 kg 1.25 (1.23, 1.28) vs 1.10 (1.07, 1.13)] were more strongly associated with the risk of total knee replacement than total hip replacement (P for heterogeneity of HRs <0.0001).Conclusion. Greater body weight and BMI at early and middle adulthood, weight gain and persistent overweight from early to middle adulthood are risk factors for knee and hip OA. Adult weight gain confers stronger risk on knee OA than hip OA. Weight control from early adulthood and avoiding weight gain are important for the prevention of OA. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Background: Genome-wide association studies have identified at least 15 independent common genetic variants associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The aim of this study was to investigate whether 11 of these variants are associated with CRC risk for carriers of germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. Methods: A total of 927 MMR gene mutation carriers (360 MLH1, 442 MSH2, 85 MSH6 and 40 PMS2) from 315 families enrolled in the Colon Cancer Family Registry, were genotyped for the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs): rs16892766 (8q23.3), rs6983267 (8q24.21), rs719725 (9p24), rs10795668 (10p14), rs3802842 (11q23.1), rs4444235 (14q22.2), rs4779584 (15q13.3), rs9929218 (16q22.1), rs4939827 (18q21.1), rs10411210 (19q13.1) and rs961253 (20p12.3). We used a weighted Cox regression to estimate CRC risk for homozygous and heterozygous carriers of the risk allele compared with homozygous non-carriers as well as for an additive per allele model (on the log scale). Results: Over a total of 40,978 person–years observation, 426 (46%) carriers were diagnosed with CRC at a mean age of 44.3years. For all carriers combined, we found no evidence of an association between CRC risk and the total number of risk alleles (hazard ratio [HR] per risk allele=0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.88–1.07, p =0.52). Conclusions: We found no evidence that the SNPs associated with CRC in the general population are modifiers of the risk for MMR gene mutation carriers overall, and therefore any evidence of proven clinical utility in Lynch syndrome. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Fruit and vegetable intake may protect against pancreatic cancer, since fruits and vegetables are rich in potentially cancer-preventive nutrients. Most case-control studies have found inverse associations between fruit and vegetable intake and pancreatic cancer risk, although bias due to reporting error cannot be ruled out. In most prospective studies, inverse associations have been weaker and imprecise because of small numbers of cases. The authors examined fruit and vegetable intake in relation to pancreatic cancer risk in a pooled analysis of 14 prospective studies from North America, Europe, and Australia (study periods between 1980 and 2005). Relative risks and 2-sided 95% confidence intervals were estimated separately for the 14 studies using the Cox proportional hazards model and were then pooled using a random-effects model. Of 862,584 men and women followed for 7−20 years, 2,212 developed pancreatic cancer. The pooled multivariate relative risks of pancreatic cancer per 100-g/day increase in intake were 1.01 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99, 1.03) for total fruits and vegetables, 1.01 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.03) for total fruits, and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.06) for total vegetables. Associations were similar for men and women separately and across studies. These results suggest that fruit and vegetable intake during adulthood is not associated with a reduced pancreatic cancer risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Caucasian populations, adult height is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and positively related to some cancers. However, there are few data from Asian populations and from women. We sought to determine the sex- and region-specific associations between height and cardiovascular outcomes, and deaths due to cancer, respiratory and injury in populations from the Asia-Pacific region.Methods: Thirty-nine studies from the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration database were included. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate the associations between height and pre-specified outcomes.Results: A total of 510,800 participants with 21,623 deaths were included. Amongst men, inverse linear associations were observed between height and coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD, injury and total mortality. The hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals, (CI)] for a 1-SD (= 6 cm) increment in height ranged from 0.85 (0.80-0.91) for injury to 0.97 (0.95-0.98) for total mortality. Similar trends were found between height and CHD, haemorrhagic stroke and CVD in women. A positive linear association was observed between height and cancer mortality. For each standard deviation greater height, the risk of cancer was increased by 5% (2-8%) and 9% (5-14%) in men and women, respectively. No regional difference was observed between Asian and Australasian cohorts. Adjusting for markers of education did not alter the results.Conclusions: The opposing relationships of height with CVD and cancer suggest that care is required in setting national policies on childhood nutrition lest they have unintended consequences on the incidence of major non-communicable diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Estimates of the future burden of invasive cancer attributable to current modifiable causal exposures can guide cancer prevention. Methods We linked pooled data from seven Australian cohort studies (N = 367,058) to national cancer and death registries, and estimated exposure-cancer and exposure-death associations using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from contemporary national health surveys and calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) and 95% confidence intervals, using advanced methods accounting for competing risk of death. Results Current levels of past and current smoking explain 36.1% (95%CI 33.2%-38.9%), body fatness 13.6% (10.9%-16.2%) and alcohol consumption exceeding two drinks/day 2.3% (1.0%-3.6%) of cancers causally related to these exposures, corresponding to 210,000, 81,300 and 14,800 cancers in Australia in the next 10 years, respectively. Ever smoking is the leading modifiable cause of lung (82.1%), bladder (49.8%), oesophageal (42.8%), liver (39.8%), head and neck (35.6%), and pancreatic (21.3%) cancer burden. Body fatness is the leading modifiable cause of corpus uteri (42.5%), gastric cardia (33.6%), renal cell (29.1%), thyroid (20.1%), colorectal (12.6%) and postmenopausal breast (12.6%) cancer burden. The absolute numbers of cancers in the next 10 years attributable to smoking are highest for lung cancer (114,000). The numbers of cancers attributable to body fatness and alcohol are highest for colorectal cancer (23,000 and 9,900, respectively). Conclusions More reliable advanced methods demonstrate large proportions and numbers of cancers are preventable by modifying behaviours. Key messages Ever smoking and body fatness are the leading causes of preventable future burden of causally related cancers in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Ageing is the strongest cancer risk factor, and men and women exhibit different risk profiles in terms of incidence and survival. DNA methylation is known to strongly vary by age and sex. Epigenetic drift refers to age-related DNA methylation changes and the tendency for increasing discordance between epigenomes over time, but it remains unknown to what extent the epigenetic drift contributes to cancer risk and survival. The aims of this study were to identify age-associated, sex-associated and sexually dimorphic age-associated (age-by-sex-associated) DNA methylation markers and investigate whether age- and age-by-sex-associated markers are associated with cancer risk and survival. Our study, which used a total of 2754 matched case–control pairs with DNA methylation in pre-diagnostic blood, is the first large study to examine the association between sex-specific epigenetic drift and cancer development and progression. The results may be useful for cancer early diagnosis and prediction of prognosis. To investigate age- and sex-specific DNA methylation alterations related to cancer risk and survival, we used matched case–control studies of colorectal (n = 835), gastric (n = 170), kidney (n = 143), lung (n = 332), prostate (n = 869) and urothelial (n = 428) cancers, and mature B-cell lymphoma (n = 438). Linear mixed-effects models were conducted to identify age-, sex- and age-by-sex-associated methylation markers using a discovery (controls)-replication (cases) strategy. Replication was further examined using summary statistics from Generation Scotland (GS). Associations between replicated markers and risk of and survival from cancer were assessed using conditional logistic regression and Cox models (hazard ratios (HR)), respectively. We found 32,659, 23,141 and 48 CpGs with replicated associations for age, sex and age-by-sex, respectively. The replication rates for these CpGs using GS summary data were 94%, 86% and 91%, respectively. Significant associations for cancer risk and survival were identified at some individual age-related CpGs. Opposite to previous findings using epigenetic clocks, there was a strong negative trend in the association between epigenetic drift and risk of colorectal cancer. Methylation at two CpGs overlapping TMEM49 and ARX genes was associated with survival of overall (HR = 0.91, p = 7.7 × 10−4) and colorectal (HR = 1.52, p = 1.8 × 10−4) cancer, respectively, with significant age-by-sex interaction. Our results may provide markers for cancer early detection and prognosis prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]