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Project portfolio management requires a systematic process that comprises assessment of portfolio risk and expected profitability, as well as strategic fit of individual projects with company objectives. After a needs analysis based on literature findings and surveys with experts, in this study, a process model and a tool, COPPMAN (COnstruction Project Portfolio MANagement), were developed to support project portfolio decisions in construction companies. COPPMAN was developed in collaboration with construction professionals. Different from previous studies, it incorporates a portfolio risk and strategic fit assessment model considering project dependencies and integrates knowledge of previous, on-going and potential projects to estimate value of alternative project portfolios. COPPMAN was implemented in a construction company and evaluated as a useful tool due to its features such as knowledge integration, forecasting of portfolio profitability and recommendation of strategies as well as its visualization features. Research design and findings can be used for development of similar tools in other project-based industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction industry is overwhelmed by an increasing number and severity of disputes. The primary objective of this research is to predict the occurrence of disputes by utilizing machine learning (ML) techniques on empirical data. For this reason, variables affecting dispute occurrence were identified from the literature, and a conceptual model was developed to depict the common factors. Based on the conceptual model, a questionnaire was designed to collect empirical data from experts. Chi-square tests were conducted to reveal the associations between input variables and dispute occurrence. Alternative classification techniques were tested, and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers achieved the best average accuracy (90.46%). Ensemble classifiers combining the tested classification techniques were developed for enhanced prediction performance. Experimental results showed that the best ensemble classifier, obtained from the majority voting technique, can achieve 91.11% average accuracy. Based on Chi-square tests, the most influential factors on dispute occurrence were found as variations and unexpected events in projects. Other important predictors were all related to the skills of the parties involved. This study contributes to the construction dispute domain in three ways: (1) by proposing a conceptual model that combined the diverse efforts in the literature for identifying variables affecting dispute occurrence; (2) by highlighting the influential factors, such as response rate and communication skills, as indicators for potential disputes; and (3) by providing an empirical ML-based model with enhanced prediction capabilities that can function as an early-warning mechanism for decision-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although conceptualized in various ways within the project management literature, complexity is usually identified as one of the drivers of uncertainty, which may result in deviations from the expected project performance in the construction industry. Effective strategies to manage risk and complexity can only be formulated by understanding the complexity-uncertainty-performance triad in construction projects and modeling the non-linear interactions between these factors. In this study, a meta-modeling approach was utilized for understanding complex interactions within the triad. Using a database of projects from the seed scenarios developed by experts, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) meta-model was constructed for capturing complex interactions across the triad. Shapley value from Game Theory was adapted to assess the output of the BBN meta-model for establishing the relative contribution of complexity and uncertainty factors to project performance while considering the efficacy of potential strategies. The output of the Shapley value analysis was used to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting project performance. The application of the proposed methodology was demonstrated through a case study involving experts from an international construction company. The results clearly manifest the merits of integrating these approaches in a unique order in that BBNs are useful for understanding the holistic account of complex interdependencies involved in construction projects, utilization of Shapley value helps in establishing the relative importance of factors across a BBN meta-model and allocating limited resources to manage project complexity and uncertainty, and ANNs exhibit an improved accuracy in predicting the project performance given the relative importance established across complexity and uncertainty factors. The findings from the case study demonstrate that the proposed methodology can be used to understand how performance may change with respect to different combinations of implemented strategies, complexity and uncertainty factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although complexity and risk are inherent characteristics of megaconstruction projects, existing project management approaches fail to incorporate complexity-based thinking into risk management. Complexity is usually considered as the source of risk events, along with uncertainty. However, prevailing risk management practices are oriented toward only handling the uncertainty. The lack of integration between the complexity and other risk-related concepts leads to unrealistic project risk assessments and the formulation of imperfect management strategies. The aim of this research is to explore the relationship between complexity and risk in detail and propose an integrated risk assessment approach. For this purpose, a mixed-methods research approach was adopted to collect data via semistructured interviews and survey questions. Data obtained from 11 megaconstruction projects carried out by Turkish contractors were analyzed in two ways. Quantitative findings served to verify the relationship between complexity and risk in numerical terms, whereas qualitative findings were utilized to develop a framework that explains the nature of this relationship. The conceptual framework represents the links between complexity and risk in megaconstruction projects, together with uncertainty and management strategies. The existence of causal relations between these concepts may constitute a significant challenge during the risk assessment. Therefore, an integrated risk assessment process (IRAP) was proposed so that megaproject practitioners could develop better risk management plans. The findings of this research were based on megaconstruction projects, but they may also apply to other types of projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of fit between an organization's implementation of project management (PM), and its business level strategy is emphasized in the literature. However, there are a limited number of studies investigating the relationship between business level strategy and implementation of PM in the construction industry. This paper aligns one of the business strategies, namely differentiation, with the PM process. A framework representing differentiation in the construction industry is proposed in this study. Structural equation modelling (SEM) is used to validate the relationship between differentiation and the PM process. The results show that a relationship between differentiation strategy and PM exists. The two types of differentiation are revealed, namely “product variety and speed-related differentiation” (PSD) and “quality and image-related differentiation” (QID). The companies trying to differentiate based on PSD should focus on cost, time and quality management. Change management and project planning are identified as important drivers of differentiation based on PSD. On the other hand, the companies trying to differentiate on QID should consider health, safety and environmental issues as well as quality. Companies should also manage their resources effectively to support the PM process that in turn leads to successful differentiation. Companies can utilize the research findings as a guideline while formulating their differentiation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The positive effect of differentiation strategy on achieving competitive advantage among construction companies is widely acknowledged in the literature. However, there exists only a limited number of studies in the construction management literature that investigate the drivers and modes of differentiation. The purpose of this study is to determine appropriate modes and drivers of differentiation strategy in the Turkish construction industry. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, based on the results of an extensive literature survey, a set of modes and drivers are defined as well as a conceptual framework to investigate their interrelations. Structural equation modelling (SEM) is proposed as an effective tool to investigate the relations between various factors of differentiation and data regarding the Turkish contractors have been used to demonstrate its applicability. Findings – The results demonstrate that construction companies can differentiate on two modes of differentiation, either on "quality and image" or "product variety and speed". Among the identified drivers, project management capabilities influence "product variety and speed related differentiation" and "quality and image related differentiation" directly; corporate management affects "quality and image related differentiation" directly, whereas corporate management influences "product variety and speed differentiation" indirectly. "Resources" has a strong direct effect on project and corporate management, in addition "resources" influences "product variety and speed related differentiation" and "quality and image related differentiation" modes indirectly through corporate and project management. Originality/value – Research findings may help companies to choose an appropriate differentiation mode considering their strengths and weaknesses related with the drivers. Although findings reflect the competitive environment prevailing in the Turkish construction industry, it is believed that the parameters identified in this study can further be used as a benchmark to conduct similar studies in other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The major challenges of project risk assessment may be attributed to the knowledge requirements for determining the level of uncertainty and the development of complex models to predict project outcomes. The duration-cost influence network is an adequate model that can be used for activity-based risk modeling. In this study, a scenario analysis feature is added to this model and a Web-based tool is developed that can be used to calculate risk-adjusted duration and cost, considering the risks affecting cost and duration of individual activities. Monte Carlo simulation is used to create scenarios, and the output of these scenarios is calculated by using the cost-duration influence system that simulates the vulnerability of the project to the identified risk factors. The Web-based tool can be used by decision makers during the preplanning stage of construction projects to estimate the cost and duration implications of various risk occurrence scenarios, determine contingencies, and prepare risk-management plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk management is about identifying risks, assessing their impacts, and developing mitigation strategies to ensure project success. The difference between the expected and actual project outcomes is usually attributed to risk events and how they are managed throughout the project. Although there are several reference frameworks that explain how risks can be managed in construction projects, a major bottleneck is the lack of a common vocabulary for risk-related concepts. Poor definition of risk and patterns of risk propagation in a project decrease the reliability of risk models that are constructed to simulate project outcomes under different risk occurrence scenarios. This study aims to extend previous studies in risk management by presenting an ontology for relating risk-related concepts to cost overrun. The major idea is that cost overrun depends on causal relations between various risk sources (namely, risk paths) and sources of vulnerability that interfere with these paths. Ontology is used to develop a database system that represents risk event histories of international construction projects and to construct a model for estimation of cost overrun. It will form the basis of a multiagent system that can be used to simulate the negotiation process among project participants about sharing of costs considering the risk allocation clauses in the contract, sources of vulnerability, and causal relations between risk events and their impacts. The ontology is constructed by interaction with Turkish contractors working in international markets and extensive literature review on risk-related concepts. The validation test results provide evidence that the ontology is fairly effective to help Turkish contractors to assess cost overrun by considering sources of vulnerability and risk in international construction projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exogenous factors in the strategic performance of construction companies. A conceptual model is proposed where strategic performance is influenced by a two-dimensional construct composed of market conditions and strategic alliances. Design/methodology/approach - A questionnaire survey was administered to 73 construction companies. Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the data and test the hypothesis that strategic performance is impacted by exogenous factors. The individual constructs used in the study passed the internal reliability test, all factor loadings were statistically significant at α = 0:05, all goodness of fit indices consistently indicated a good fit, and the hypothesized path coefficient was large and significant at α = 0:05. Findings - The hypothesis was supported by the data and analysis. Indeed, macro-economic, political, legal, socio-cultural conditions and the level of competition and demand are expected to impact differentiation strategies, and market/project/partner selection strategies. The quality of the relationships with government agencies and clients is expected to influence client/project/market selection strategies, while the quality of the relationships with labor unions may affect the ability to differentiate by using innovative construction methods, materials and equipment. Research limitations/implications - It is likely that endogenous factors such as company resources, capabilities and project management competencies also impact strategic performance. But the study is confined only to the exogenous factors of market conditions and strategic alliances. Practical implications - The findings of the study benefit construction company executives in that they make the executives more cognizant of the market environment and they draw the executives' attention to the importance of alliances with other parties. While market conditions are beyond the control of construction executives, relationships with other parties are somewhat within their sphere of influence. Originality/value - Only a few studies have ever investigated non-financial measures to assess the effectiveness of company strategies. Also, exogenous factors which are unavoidable in a project environment were also rarely discussed in the construction management literature. The originality of this study is that it uses non-financial measures to assess the effects of exogenous factors on strategic performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managing knowledge effectively is critical to the survival and advance of a company, especially in project-based industries such as construction. However, capturing knowledge in construction projects is a tedious task, as knowledge is usually experience based, tacit, and hard to pass on to others. In this study, a survey was carried out among eight leading Turkish construction contractors that are operating within the international construction market. The specific objectives of this survey are to find out how the tacit and explicit knowledge are captured, stored, shared, and used in forthcoming projects, as well as major drivers and barriers for knowledge management. Based on the survey, it was determined that most of these firms do not have a knowledge management strategy and a systematic way of capturing and storing tacit knowledge. A conceptual framework is proposed to formalize the knowledge-capturing process within construction companies. To demonstrate how the conceptual framework can be implemented in practice, a Web-based system, namely, Knowledge Platform for Contractors (KPfC) is presented. It is hypothesized that KPfC can be used to manage both tacit and explicit knowledge effectively in construction projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a quantitative methodology to determine financial impacts of the risk factors during the bidding stages of international construction projects. Project and country data of 26 construction projects from 21 countries were collected for evaluation of the international risk factors. The factors impacting cost contingency were identified using correlation and regression analysis techniques. The results indicated that four factors had major contributions for explaining the variations in the contingency levels. A regression model including the significant factors was developed to support bidding contingency decisions. The methodology presented provides a robust and practical statistical approach for determination of contingency by focusing on important risk factors. Details regarding model development and validation are presented along with a discussion on study limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk assessment of international projects is a complicated task because of the sensitivity of project success related to country specific risks as well as project risks. Decision makers face the difficulty of weighing project opportunities against risks and determining attractiveness of projects while giving bidding decisions. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for risk and opportunity assessment of international projects. The proposed model uses an analytic hierarchy process for calculation of risk and opportunity ratings. A risk breakdown structure, specific to international construction projects, is proposed as well as a list of factors that affect the ability of construction companies to manage risk. An application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by using real data supplied by a construction company that is experienced in international markets. Ranking of project options is made according to the opportunity and risk ratings that are calculated by using the proposed methodology based on the judgments of company professionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bidding for international construction projects is a critical decision for companies that aim to position themselves in the global construction market. Determination of attractive projects and markets where the competitive advantage of a company is high requires extensive environmental scanning, forecasting, and learning from the experience of competitors in international markets. In this paper, a neuronet model has been developed as a decision support tool that can classify international projects with respect to attractiveness and competitiveness based on the experiences of Turkish contractors in overseas markets. The model can be used to guide decision makers on which type of data should be collected during international business development and further help them to prepare priority lists during strategic planning. Information derived from the model demonstrates that the most important factors that increase attractiveness of an international project are availability of funds, market volume, economic prosperity, contract type, and country risk rating. Similarly, level of competition, attitude of host government, existence of strict quality requirements, country risk rating, and cultural/religious similarities are the most important factors that affect competitiveness of Turkish contractors in international markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]