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Background and aimsTAC is associated with incident CVD and all-cause mortality. Nevertheless, the independent 10-year prognostic value of TAC in individuals with CAC = 0 beyond traditional risk factors is not well established.Methods3415 MESA participants with baseline CAC = 0 were followed for CHD, CVD events and all-cause mortality. TAC was measured in the ascending and descending aorta in all participants and quantified using Agatston's score. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to study the associations between TAC and incident CHD, CVD events and all-cause mortality. Likelihood ratio tests were used to compare prediction models including traditional risk factors plus TAC versus risk factors alone.Results406 participants (11.9%) had TAC>0 at baseline. Over a median follow-up of 11.3 years, unadjusted event rates per 1000 person-years were higher in TAC>0 than in TAC = 0 participants: CHD 2.18 vs. 2.03; CVD 6.85 vs. 3.42; all-cause mortality 12.84 vs. 4.96. However, in multivariable Cox regression analyses adjusting for CVD risk factors, neither TAC>0, TAC>100 nor log(TAC+1) were independently associated with any of the study outcomes, nor improved their prediction compared to traditional risk factors alone (p value of likelihood ratio tests >0.05).ConclusionsIn a multi-ethnic, modern US population of asymptomatic individuals with CAC = 0 at baseline, the prevalence of TAC>0 was low, and TAC did not improve 10-year estimation of prognosis beyond traditional risk factors. In the presence of CAC = 0, measurement of TAC is unlikely to provide sufficient additional prognostic information to further improve risk assessment.

Objectives: We sought to examine the prognostic value of subclinical left ventricular (LV) regional myocardial dysfunction (RMD) measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) among asymptomatic individuals. Background: LV RMD, defined as segmental impairment in systolic wall thickening, predicts adverse events in patients with established cardiovascular disease. MRI is highly accurate for detecting subtle RMD, of which the prognostic significance in a large multiethnic asymptomatic population is not known. Methods: We used MRI to evaluate baseline regional LV myocardial function and prospectively followed a multiethnic (African American, Caucasian, Chinese, and Hispanic) population-based sample of 4,510 men and women without cardiovascular disease for a mean of 4.6 years. Regional myocardial dysfunction was defined as the presence of impaired systolic wall thickening (<10th percentile of segment-specific population distribution) in ≥2 contiguous LV segments within any given coronary artery territory. Results: Baseline prevalence of RMD was 25.6%. Heart failure developed in 34 (1.0%) and 30 (2.6%) participants without and with RMD, respectively (p < 0.001). After adjustment for demographics and traditional risk factors, RMD remained independently associated with incident heart failure (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.62; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.56 to 4.39; p < 0.001). The relationship persisted after further adjustment for biomarkers of reported association with cardiovascular disease and indexes of global LV systolic dysfunction and hypertrophy (HR: 1.80; 95% CI: 1.02 to 3.20; p = 0.044). Similarly, RMD independently conferred an increased risk for hard coronary events (myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease; HR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.89; p = 0.029), the composite of hard coronary events and stroke (HR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.16 to 2.56; p = 0.005), and all atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (HR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.09 to 2.07; p = 0.012). Conclusions: Among an asymptomatic multiethnic American cohort, RMD is an independent predictor beyond traditional risk factors and global LV assessment for incident heart failure and atherosclerotic cardiovascular events. The clinical utility of early recognition of this subclinical phenotype deserves further investigation. (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]; NCT00005487) [Copyright &y& Elsevier]