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Starting in 2021, the current inflation process has spurred plenty of discussion in academic and policy circles. This paper studies the relationship between firms' markups and inflation during the 2021–22 inflation surge in several industrialized countries. It begins by explaining markup inflation and its critics in the context of the current debate over the sources of inflation. Then it reviews the characteristics of markup inflation within the post-Keynesian theory of markup pricing and complementing it with the Institutionalist approach to inflation that distinguishes between basic inflationary pressures and propagation mechanisms. The second part assesses markup inflation for several industrialized countries using descriptive statistics and conventional econometrics. The main contribution falls in empirically estimating markups considering the contribution of material cost and controlling for changes in capacity utilization over time. It concludes that there is some evidence pointing at markup inflation and, importantly, the existence of markup inflation leads to rejecting any wage-price spiral. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the inflationary period of 2021 to the middle of 2022 primarily by employing US data but is suggestive of the global inflation experience given important cross-border linkages. Inflation is posited as a result of buyer firms, operating across multiple, global supply chain stages, who must shift their purchases to a reduced set of supplier companies. Supply is crimped because of pandemic impacts on capacity. Supply-induced shortages cause global demands to concentrate around fewer oligopoly producers who hike markups and prices. Empirical work is directed at understanding which specific factors that affect pricing are most responsible for the experienced inflation. The paper finds that markup increases represent a larger fraction of price increases than the other price components, suggesting that profit-push is the most important cause of the global inflation experience. Industrial data show that cuts to the aggregate productive capacity of firms did occur, setting the stage for shortages to develop, particularly after demand recovered from the pandemic lockdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analysis of the impact of markups and wages of enterprises on changes in the level of inflation in Poland in the years 2007-2022. The impact of markups and wages on changes in CPI were assessed using the VECM model, the impulse responses, and the variance decomposition. The results indicate that industrial sector, including the mining and quarrying section, showed the highest dynamics of changes in markups and wages. In the years 2005-2022, the impact of markups on changes in CPI was stronger, although it was losing importance, with a weaker but growing impact of wages. Forecasts of the degree of clarification of the CPI in Poland indicate a greater importance of markups, with the impact of wages weaker by half, but growing over time. The paper extends the state of theoretical and empirical studies on the determinants of the CPI and the inflation expectations. It also considers the context of persistent exogenous and endogenous shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and changes in demand and supply impulses. The results of this study may be valuable as a contribution to the literature on inflation and its forecasts, and for monetary policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I present a perspective on where the Indian economy stands right now. I acknowledge the contradictions that have arisen given the divergent growth path of urban, formal or (stock-market) listed India relative to rural, informal or unlisted India. I also focus on the country's immense opportunities in expanding the digital footprint of finance to last-mile borrowers. I present novel facts on the rising industrial concentration, drawing out its historical evolution, the channels that have caused it to rise recently, and its implications for product price markups and inflation. I recommend that to restore industrial balance, India increase overall competition by reducing import tariffs and reduce the pricing power of its largest conglomerates. I also propose that to restore macroeconomic balance, India reduce fiscal deficit and public sector borrowing requirements as well as rein in inflation, address gaps in skills and education, and restore female labor force participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article investigate the possible reasons for the high inflation rate in the U.S. It explores the idea of "greedflation," which suggests that companies has been increasing prices to capitalize on their market power, without considering the cost of production. It further analyzes the growth of markup, the ratio of a firm's price to its current marginal cost of production, and its impact on inflation in 2021.

Policy makers in many developing countries use maximum price or markup policies to control pharmaceutical costs, which represent 20%–60% of their overall healthcare expenditure. We study the price effect of price ceiling policies by exploiting a major policy shift in China: the elimination of longstanding ceilings on retail drug prices. We collect weekly price and characteristics data on more than 4,500 drug stock keeping units (SKUs) from a leading pharmacy chain. By comparing the rate of discontinuous price jumps across drugs with and without price ceilings during the years before and after the policy change, we find that while price ceilings are effective in containing the prices of some drugs, they can lead to higher prices for others, particularly if the ceilings are set at the national level irrespective of local economic conditions. About 5% of nationally controlled drugs (or more than 125 drugs) had inflated prices because of price ceilings, with an average price inflation of 10%. We attribute this perverse price effect to focal point pricing and asymmetric information about production costs. Further supporting this view, we find the perverse price effect most prominent in lower-income regions where the centrally set price ceilings are arbitrarily high considering their poorer economic conditions. Moreover, drugs with highly concentrated production and less elastic demand face heightened risks of inflated prices under price ceilings. Finally, based on a sample of drugs with available price ceiling data, we find that drugs with manufacturer-specific ceilings are 100% more likely to be priced at or near their ceilings and 70% more likely to experience price drops once the ceilings are removed compared with other drugs with regular ceilings. Overall, this paper documents the unintended perverse effect of price ceilings in pharmaceutical markets and sheds lights on the ongoing debate of drug price regulation. This paper was accepted by Stefan Scholtes, healthcare management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Price inflation in the U.S. has been slow to pick up in the last two decades. We show that this missing inflation can be traced to a growing disconnect between unemployment and core goods inflation. We exploit rich industry‐level data to show that weakening pass‐through from wages to prices in the goods‐producing sector is an important source of the slow inflation pickup. We develop a theory where markups and pass‐through depend on firms' market shares and show that increased import competition and rising market concentration reduce pass‐through from wages to prices. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to focus directly on the phase shift. For one thing, we ask whether a New Keynesian sticky-price model economy can account for both countercyclical prices and procyclical inflation. We present findings in which the price level is countercyclical and the inflation rate is procyclical. We proceed to use the model economy as an identification mechanism. What set of individual shocks are necessary to account for the phase shift? That set contains the price markup shock. Next, we ask what set of shocks are sufficient to account for the phase shift. This set contains three elements: the price markup and wage markup shocks along with the government spending shock. The results are important as a building block. We infer that price stickiness is an important model feature; without price stickiness, we are in the real business cycle economies that Cooley and Hansen studied. But, it raises further questions. For instance, is price stickiness of the Calvo form—the one used here—necessary to explain the phase shift? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the dynamic effect of three micro-structural shocks, namely, investment-specific technology, markup and technology shocks to key components of the Iranian economy: private investment behaviour. The identification strategy positions the structural shocks to private investment behaviour in the Dynamics Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework with a threeaccuracy test estimation: The Brooks and Gelman test, the Metropolis-Hastings jumping distribution acceptance ratio, and the distribution of the deep posteriors parameters are asymptotically normal. The quarter economic data of Iran economy from July 1988 until March 2015 is applied. The findings illustrate that the structural shocks about technology have a similar impact and cause a growth in private investment, and the only difference is, in investment-specific technology shock due to a temporary decrease in the capital expenses installation (Tobin's Q), an investment boom is driven. In contrast, the price markup shock due to inflation causes a decline in all investment indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We determine optimal monetary policy under commitment in a forward-looking New Keynesian model when nominal interest rates are bounded below by zero. The lower bound represents an occasionally binding constraint that causes the model and optimal policy to be nonlinear. A calibration to the U.S. economy suggests that policy should reduce nominal interest rates more aggressively than suggested by a model without lower bound. Rational agents anticipate the possibility of reaching the lower bound in the future and this amplifies the effects of adverse shocks well before the bound is reached. While the empirical magnitude of U.S. mark-up shocks seems too small to entail zero nominal interest rates, shocks affecting the natural real interest rate plausibly lead to a binding lower bound. Under optimal policy, however, this occurs quite infrequently and does not imply positive average inflation rates in equilibrium. Interestingly, the presence of binding real rate shocks alters the policy response to (non-binding) markup shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous empirical studies have found a negative relationship between inflation and industry profit margins. Recent theoretical findings, however, suggest that buyer search costs can significantly impact this relationship. We use an actual measure of search cost that varies across wholesale industries to estimate the impact of these costs on the relationship between inflation and markups. Using firm-level data from 57 industries, we show that margins increase during inflation if search costs become sufficiently high. Our findings reconcile the theoretical and empirical literatures on this topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research suggests that if supply-side reforms take place as the nominal interest rate hits the so-called 'zero lower bound' (ZLB), the benefits of reforms are outweighed by the negatives, and the net effect is contractionary (Eggertsson et al. 2014 ; Fernandez-Villaverde 2014). In this article, we show that the effectiveness of temporary reforms that reduce price markups is determined by the interaction between two offsetting effects on the real interest rate: one deflationary and one inflationary. If the latter outweighs the former, the reforms can become expansionary. The effectiveness of permanent reforms is determined by the monetary policy outside the ZLB: a wealth effect. If the effect is large enough, the reforms can also become expansionary (JEL codes: E30, E50, E60). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper introduces right-to-manage bargaining into a labor search model with sticky prices instead of standard efficient bargaining and examines the Ramsey-optimal monetary policy. Without real wage rigidity, even when the steady state is inefficient, price stability is nearly optimal in response to technology or government shocks. Right-to-manage bargaining creates the wage channel to inflation, because there is a direct relationship between real wages and real marginal cost. In the presence of the wage channel, price markups consist of only real marginal cost, and real wages and hours per worker are determined such as in the Walrasian labor market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study two decompositions of inflation, π, motivated by the standard New Keynesian pricing equation of Gali, Gertler, and Sbordone. The first uses four components: lagged π, expected future π, real unit labor cost (ψ), and a residual. The second uses two components: fundamental inflation (discounted expected future ψ) and a residual. We find large low-frequency differences between actual and fundamental inflation. From 1999 to 2011 fundamental inflation fell by more than 15 percentage points, while actual inflation changed little. We discuss this discrepancy in terms of the data (a large drop in labor's share of income) and through the lens of a canonical structural model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates a linearised DSGE model for the euro area. The model is New Keynesian and allows for a role for oil usage and endogenous price markups. The importance of shocks to monetary policy and oil prices is estimated to have declined in the post-1990 period, in line with the higher predictability of policy and the fall in the persistence and-to a lesser extent-variability of oil disturbances. Counterfactual exercises show that oil efficiency gains would alleviate the inflationary and contractionary consequences of oil shocks, while higher wage flexibility would help ease the impact on real output at the expense of larger inflationary pressures. While we report evidence of 'countercyclical' price markups, the rise in markups induced by an oil disturbance is not found to considerably amplify the inflationary and contractionary effects of the shock. The paper discusses the policy implications of our empirical results for the euro area economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides estimates of sectoral price–cost margin (PCM) trends in thirteen OECD countries over the last three decades, once controlled for inflation and cycle effects. It concludes with the absence of a decrease in average PCM. More strikingly, it establishes a clear pattern of PCM convergence both across countries and sectors. This convergence means that high margins have shrunk and low margins grown. Better capital market efficiency might be a driving force in the PCM convergence. These results point to a need to search for factors countervailing the pro-competitive effect on markups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent literature on the design of optimal monetary policy has shown that deviations from price stability are small whenever prices are sticky. This paper reconsiders this issue by introducing capital accumulation in the model. Optimal monetary policy in this setup implies small deviations from price stability. The monetary authority optimally uses inflation as an explicit tax on monopolistic profits to reduce the price markup across states. Variable markup is achieved in this setup because the share of investment demand over output varies across states and in response to TFP shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifts in the extent of competition, which affect markups, are possible sources of aggregate fluctuations. Markups are countercyclical; during booms the economy operates more efficiently. In our benchmark model, markups correspond to the prices of differentiated inputs relative to that of undifferentiated final product. If nominal prices of differentiated goods are relatively sticky, unexpected inflation reduces markups, mimicking the effects of increased competition. Similar effects stem from reductions in markups of foreign intermediates and unexpected inflation abroad. The models imply that prices of less competitive goods are more countercyclical. We find support for this hypothesis using data of four-digit manufacturing industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Se presenta un trabajo con el propósito de aplicar modelos de inflación comúnmente usados en países industrializados al caso de México, que ha adoptado la política de objetivos de inflación como su marca de política monetaria. Se compara el desempeño de estos modelos en relación a un modelo de margen de sobrecosto que ha sido usado exitosamente para el análisis de la inflación en México.

Using annual US data for gross domestic product originating by sector between 1947 and 1997 it is shown that a negative long-run relationship between inflation and the markup is present across the sectors as well as in the aggregate data. A preliminary explanation based on industry structure is explored for the relative sizes of the impact of inflation on the markup in the long-run for the various sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on the rate of change in markup as a function of aggregate demand growth, aggregate inflation and industry cost inflation in the United States. Implication of a negative relationship between cost and markup; Influence of aggregate inflation in prices and markups; Indication of high concentration industries on price-cost markups.

Focuses on a study which investigated the relations between inflation and markup in the field of economics. Discussion of an inflation cost markup model of prices; Investigation of the long-run relationship; Conclusion.

This article focuses on price markups that tend to rise during recessions. The simultaneous unemployment and inflation now afflicting the American economy is likely to be a recurrent problem, unless one take serious steps to confront its root cause: growing economic concentration. There have been three main explanations for inflation in recent years: inflationary expectations: excess demand; and random events leading to increased fuel and food prices. Under the traditional theory of competition, the firm takes the price it receives for its product as given; it is simply a passive recipient of price information generated by the market. Since, according to this theory, it acts in a competitive environment, it is fanciful and indeed self-destructive for the firm to try to influence the price it charges for its product. In traditional economic theory, the firm maximizes profits within constraints imposed posed by the demand. For its product, the technology it has available to produce that product, and the prices it must pay to obtain the factors of production. The firm in concentrated industries has a different profit motivation and faces different forms of constraints.