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Purpose: Patients with impaired functional capacity who undergo major surgery are at increased risk of postoperative morbidity including complications and increased length of stay. These outcomes have been associated with increased hospital and health system costs. We aimed to assess whether common preoperative risk indices are associated with postoperative cost., Methods: We conducted a health economic analysis focused on the subset of Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) study participants in Ontario, Canada. Participants were scheduled for major elective noncardiac surgery and underwent several preoperative assessments of cardiac risk, including physicians' subjective assessment, Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) questionnaire, peak oxygen consumption, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide concentration. Using linked health administrative data, postoperative costs were calculated for both one year and in-hospital. Using multiple regression models, we tested for association between the preoperative measures of cardiac risk and postoperative costs., Results: Our study included 487 patients (mean [standard deviation] age 68 [11] yr and 47.0% female) who underwent noncardiac surgery between 13 June 2013 and 8 March 2016. Overall, the median [interquartile range] cost incurred within one year postoperatively was CAD 27,587 [13,902-32,590], of which CAD 12,928 [10,253-12,810] were incurred in-hospital and CAD 14,497 [10,917-15,017] were incurred by 30 days. None of the four preoperative measures of cardiac risk assessment were associated with costs incurred in hospital or at one year postoperatively. This lack of strong association persisted in sensitivity analyses considering type of surgical procedure, burden of preoperative cost, and when costs were categorized as quantiles., Conclusion: In patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery, common measures of functional capacity are not consistently associated with total postoperative cost. Until further data exist that differ from this analysis, clinicians and health care funders should not assume that preoperative measures of cardiac risk are associated with annual health care or hospital costs for such surgeries., (© 2023. Canadian Anesthesiologists' Society.)

Self-reported postoperative functional recovery is an important patient-centred outcome that is rarely measured or considered in research and decision-making. We conducted a secondary analysis of the measurement of exercise tolerance before surgery (METS) study for associations of peri-operative variables with functional decline after major non-cardiac surgery. Patients who were at least 40 years old, had or were at risk of, coronary artery disease and who were scheduled for non-cardiac surgery were recruited. Primary outcome was a reduction in mobility, self-care or ability to conduct usual activities (EuroQol 5 dimension) from before surgery to 30 days and 1 year after surgery. A decline in at least one function was reported by 523/1309 (40%) participants at 30 days and 320/1309 (24%) participants at 1 year. Participants who reported higher pre-operative Duke Activity Status indices more often reported functional decline 30 days after surgery and less often reported functional decline 1 year after surgery. The odds ratios (95%CI) of functional decline 30 days and 1 year after surgery with moderate or severe postoperative complications were 1.46 (1.02-2.09), p = 0.037 and 1.44 (0.98-2.13), p = 0.066. Discrimination of participants who reported functional decline 30 days and 1 year after surgery were poor (c-statistic 0.61 and 0.63, respectively). In summary, one quarter of participants reported functional decline up to one postoperative year., (© 2021 Association of Anaesthetists.)

Purpose: The six-minute walk test (6MWT) is a simple and valid test for assessing cardiopulmonary fitness. Nevertheless, the relationship between preoperative 6MWT distance and postoperative complications is uncertain. We conducted a secondary analysis of the 6MWT nested cohort substudy of the Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery study to determine if 6MWT distance predicts postoperative complications or death., Methods: This analysis included 545 adults (≥ 40 yr) who were at elevated cardiac risk and had elective inpatient non-cardiac surgery at 15 hospitals in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Each participant performed a preoperative 6MWT and was followed for 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome was moderate or severe in-hospital complications. The secondary outcome was 30-day death or myocardial injury. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to characterize the adjusted association of 6MWT distance with these outcomes., Results: Seven participants (1%) terminated their 6MWT sessions early because of lower limb pain, dyspnea, or dizziness. Eighty-one (15%) participants experienced moderate or severe complications and 69 (13%) experienced 30-day myocardial injury or death. Decreased 6MWT distance was associated with increased odds of moderate or severe complications (adjusted odds ratio, 1.32 per 100 m decrease; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.73; P = 0.045). There was no association of 6MWT distance with myocardial injury or 30-day death (non-linear association; P = 0.49)., Conclusion: Preoperative 6MWT distance had a modest association with moderate or severe complications after inpatient non-cardiac surgery. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal role of the 6MWT as an objective exercise test for informing preoperative risk stratification.

Background: Accurate assessment of functional capacity, a predictor of postoperative morbidity and mortality, is essential to improving surgical planning and outcomes. We assessed if all 12 items of the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) were equally important in reflecting exercise capacity., Methods: In this secondary cross-sectional analysis of the international, multicentre Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) study, we assessed cardiopulmonary exercise testing and DASI data from 1455 participants. Multivariable regression analyses were used to revise the DASI model in predicting an anaerobic threshold (AT) >11 ml kg -1 min -1 and peak oxygen consumption (VO 2 peak) >16 ml kg -1 min -1 , cut-points that represent a reduced risk of postoperative complications., Results: Five questions were identified to have dominance in predicting AT>11 ml kg -1 min -1 and VO 2 peak>16 ml.kg -1 min -1 . These items were included in the M-DASI-5Q and retained utility in predicting AT>11 ml.kg -1 .min -1 (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic [AUROC]-AT: M-DASI-5Q=0.67 vs original 12-question DASI=0.66) and VO 2 peak (AUROC-VO2 peak: M-DASI-5Q 0.73 vs original 12-question DASI 0.71). Conversely, in a sensitivity analysis we removed one potentially sensitive question related to the ability to have sexual relations, and the ability of the remaining four questions (M-DASI-4Q) to predict an adequate functional threshold remained no worse than the original 12-question DASI model. Adding a dynamic component to the M-DASI-4Q by assessing the chronotropic response to exercise improved its ability to discriminate between those with VO 2 peak>16 ml.kg -1 .min -1 and VO 2 peak<16 ml.kg -1 .min -1 ., Conclusions: The M-DASI provides a simple screening tool for further preoperative evaluation, including with cardiopulmonary exercise testing, to guide perioperative management., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: Elevated plasma or serum troponin, indicating perioperative myocardial injury (PMI), is common after noncardiac surgery. However, underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is associated with the early appearance of circulating microRNAs, which regulate post-translational gene expression. We hypothesised that if PMI and ACS share pathophysiological mechanisms, common microRNA signatures should be evident., Methods: We performed a nested case control study of samples obtained before and after noncardiac surgery from patients enrolled in two prospective observational studies of PMI (postoperative troponin I/T>99th centile). In cohort one, serum microRNAs were compared between patients with or without PMI, matched for age, gender, and comorbidity. Real-time polymerase chain reaction quantified (qRT-PCR) relative microRNA expression (cycle quantification [Cq] threshold <37) before and after surgery for microRNA signatures associated with ACS, blinded to PMI. In cohort two, we analysed (EdgeR) microRNA from plasma extracellular vesicles using next-generation sequencing (Illumina HiSeq 500). microRNA-messenger RNA-function pathway analysis was performed (DIANA miRPath v3.0/TopGO)., Results: MicroRNAs were detectable in all 59 patients (median age 67 yr [61-75]; 42% male), who had similar clinical characteristics independent of developing PMI. In cohort one, serum microRNA expression increased after surgery (mean fold-change) hsa-miR-1-3p: 3.99 (95% confidence interval [CI: 1.95-8.19]; hsa-miR-133-3p: 5.67 [95% CI: 2.94-10.91]; P<0.001). These changes were not associated with PMI. Bioinformatic analysis of differentially expressed microRNAs from cohorts one (n=48) and two (n=11) identified pathways associated with adrenergic stress and calcium dysregulation, rather than ischaemia., Conclusions: Circulating microRNAs associated with cardiac ischaemia were universally elevated in patients after surgery, independent of development of myocardial injury., (Crown Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Impaired cardiac vagal function, quantified preoperatively as slower heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise, is independently associated with perioperative myocardial injury. Parasympathetic (vagal) dysfunction may also promote (extra-cardiac) multi-organ dysfunction, although perioperative data are lacking. Assuming that cardiac vagal activity, and therefore heart rate recovery response, is a marker of brainstem parasympathetic dysfunction, we hypothesized that impaired HRR would be associated with a higher incidence of morbidity after noncardiac surgery., Methods: In two prospective, blinded, observational cohort studies, we established the definition of impaired vagal function in terms of the HRR threshold that is associated with perioperative myocardial injury (HRR ≤ 12 beats min-1 (bpm), 60 seconds after cessation of cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The primary outcome of this secondary analysis was all-cause morbidity three and five days after surgery, defined using the Post-Operative Morbidity Survey. Secondary outcomes of this analysis were type of morbidity and time to become morbidity-free. Logistic regression and Cox regression tested for the association between HRR and morbidity. Results are presented as odds/hazard ratios [OR or HR; (95% confidence intervals)., Results: 882/1941 (45.4%) patients had HRR≤12bpm. All-cause morbidity within 5 days of surgery was more common in 585/822 (71.2%) patients with HRR≤12bpm, compared to 718/1119 (64.2%) patients with HRR>12bpm (OR:1.38 (1.14-1.67); p = 0.001). HRR≤12bpm was associated with more frequent episodes of pulmonary (OR:1.31 (1.05-1.62);p = 0.02)), infective (OR:1.38 (1.10-1.72); p = 0.006), renal (OR:1.91 (1.30-2.79); p = 0.02)), cardiovascular (OR:1.39 (1.15-1.69); p<0.001)), neurological (OR:1.73 (1.11-2.70); p = 0.02)) and pain morbidity (OR:1.38 (1.14-1.68); p = 0.001) within 5 days of surgery., Conclusions: Multi-organ dysfunction is more common in surgical patients with cardiac vagal dysfunction, defined as HRR ≤ 12 bpm after preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing., Clinical Trial Registry: ISRCTN88456378., Competing Interests: The METS Study and POM-HR funding sources had no role in the design and conduct of these studies; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; and preparation or approval of the article. RP holds research grants, and has given lectures and/or performed consultancy work for Nestle Health Sciences, BBraun, Medtronic, GlaxoSmithKline and Edwards Lifesciences, and is a member of the Associate editorial board of the British Journal of Anaesthesia; GLA is a member of the editorial advisory board for Intensive Care Medicine Experimental, is an Editor for the British Journal of Anaesthesia and has undertaken consultancy work for GlaxoSmithKline; TEFA is a committee member of the Perioperative Exercise Testing and Training Society. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Background: Physiological measures of heart failure are common in surgical patients, despite the absence of a diagnosis. Heart rate (HR) increases during exercise are frequently blunted in heart failure (termed chronotropic incompetence), which primarily reflects beta-adrenoreceptor dysfunction. We examined whether chronotropic incompetence was associated with myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery., Methods: This was a predefined analysis of an international cohort study where participants aged ≥40 yr underwent symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing before noncardiac surgery. Chronotropic incompetence was defined as the ratio of increase in HR during exercise to age-predicted maximal increase in HR <0.6. The primary outcome was myocardial injury within 3 days after surgery, defined by high-sensitivity troponin assays >99th centile. Explanatory variables were biomarkers for heart failure (ventilatory efficiency slope [minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production] ≥34; peak oxygen consumption ≤14 ml kg -1 min -1 ; HR recovery ≤6 beats min -1 decrease 1 min post-exercise; preoperative N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT pro-BNP] >300 pg ml -1 ). Myocardial injury was compared in the presence or absence of sympathetic (i.e. chronotropic incompetence) or parasympathetic (i.e. impaired HR recovery after exercise) thresholds indicative of dysfunction. Data are presented as odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals)., Results: Chronotropic incompetence occurred in 396/1325 (29.9%) participants; only 16/1325 (1.2%) had a heart failure diagnosis. Myocardial injury was sustained by 162/1325 (12.2%) patients. Raised preoperative NT pro-BNP was more common when chronotropic incompetence was <0.6 (OR: 1.57 [1.11-2.23]; P=0.011). Chronotropic incompetence was not significantly associated with myocardial injury (OR: 1.05 [0.74-1.50]; P=0.78), independent of rate-limiting therapy. HR recovery <12 beats min -1 decrease after exercise was associated with myocardial injury in the presence (OR: 1.62 [1.05-2.51]; P=0.03) or absence (OR: 1.60 [1.06-2.39]; P=0.02) of chronotropic incompetence., Conclusions: Chronotropic incompetence is common in surgical patients. In contrast to parasympathetic dysfunction which was associated with myocardial injury, preoperative chronotropic incompetence (suggestive of sympathetic dysfunction) was not associated with postoperative myocardial injury., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: The aetiology of perioperative myocardial injury is poorly understood and not clearly linked to pre-existing cardiovascular disease. We hypothesised that loss of cardioprotective vagal tone [defined by impaired heart rate recovery ≤12 beats min -1 (HRR ≤12) 1 min after cessation of preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing] was associated with perioperative myocardial injury., Methods: We conducted a pre-defined, secondary analysis of a multi-centre prospective cohort study of preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Participants were aged ≥40 yr undergoing non-cardiac surgery. The exposure was impaired HRR (HRR≤12). The primary outcome was postoperative myocardial injury, defined by serum troponin concentration within 72 h after surgery. The analysis accounted for established markers of cardiac risk [Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT pro-BNP)]., Results: A total of 1326 participants were included [mean age (standard deviation), 64 (10) yr], of whom 816 (61.5%) were male. HRR≤12 occurred in 548 patients (41.3%). Myocardial injury was more frequent amongst patients with HRR≤12 [85/548 (15.5%) vs HRR>12: 83/778 (10.7%); odds ratio (OR), 1.50 (1.08-2.08); P=0.016, adjusted for RCRI). HRR declined progressively in patients with increasing numbers of RCRI factors. Patients with ≥3 RCRI factors were more likely to have HRR≤12 [26/36 (72.2%) vs 0 factors: 167/419 (39.9%); OR, 3.92 (1.84-8.34); P<0.001]. NT pro-BNP greater than a standard prognostic threshold (>300 pg ml -1 ) was more frequent in patients with HRR≤12 [96/529 (18.1%) vs HRR>12 59/745 (7.9%); OR, 2.58 (1.82-3.64); P<0.001]., Conclusions: Impaired HRR is associated with an increased risk of perioperative cardiac injury. These data suggest a mechanistic role for cardiac vagal dysfunction in promoting perioperative myocardial injury., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Functional capacity is an important component of risk assessment for major surgery. Doctors' clinical subjective assessment of patients' functional capacity has uncertain accuracy. We did a study to compare preoperative subjective assessment with alternative markers of fitness (cardiopulmonary exercise testing [CPET], scores on the Duke Activity Status Index [DASI] questionnaire, and serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT pro-BNP] concentrations) for predicting death or complications after major elective non-cardiac surgery., Methods: We did a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study at 25 hospitals: five in Canada, seven in the UK, ten in Australia, and three in New Zealand. We recruited adults aged at least 40 years who were scheduled for major non-cardiac surgery and deemed to have one or more risk factors for cardiac complications (eg, a history of heart failure, stroke, or diabetes) or coronary artery disease. Functional capacity was subjectively assessed in units of metabolic equivalents of tasks by the responsible anaesthesiologists in the preoperative assessment clinic, graded as poor (<4), moderate (4-10), or good (>10). All participants also completed the DASI questionnaire, underwent CPET to measure peak oxygen consumption, and had blood tests for measurement of NT pro-BNP concentrations. After surgery, patients had daily electrocardiograms and blood tests to measure troponin and creatinine concentrations until the third postoperative day or hospital discharge. The primary outcome was death or myocardial infarction within 30 days after surgery, assessed in all participants who underwent both CPET and surgery. Prognostic accuracy was assessed using logistic regression, receiver-operating-characteristic curves, and net risk reclassification., Findings: Between March 1, 2013, and March 25, 2016, we included 1401 patients in the study. 28 (2%) of 1401 patients died or had a myocardial infarction within 30 days of surgery. Subjective assessment had 19·2% sensitivity (95% CI 14·2-25) and 94·7% specificity (93·2-95·9) for identifying the inability to attain four metabolic equivalents during CPET. Only DASI scores were associated with predicting the primary outcome (adjusted odds ratio 0·96, 95% CI 0·83-0·99; p=0·03)., Interpretation: Subjectively assessed functional capacity should not be used for preoperative risk evaluation. Clinicians could instead consider a measure such as DASI for cardiac risk assessment., Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Ontario Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science, UK National Institute of Academic Anaesthesia, UK Clinical Research Collaboration, Australian and New Zealand College of Anaesthetists, and Monash University., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The role of the revised cardiac risk index in risk stratification has recently been challenged by studies reporting on the superior predictive ability of pre-operative B-type natriuretic peptides. We found that in 850 vascular surgical patients initially risk stratified using B-type natriuretic peptides, reclassification with the number of revised cardiac risk index risk factors worsened risk stratification (p < 0.05 for > 0, > 2, > 3 and > 4 risk factors, and p = 0.23 for > 1 risk factor). When evaluated with pre-operative B-type natriuretic peptides, none of the revised cardiac risk index risk factors were independent predictors of major adverse cardiac events in vascular patients. The only independent predictor was B-type natriuretic peptide stratification (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.8-15 for the intermediate class, and OR 25, 95% CI 8.7-70 for the high-risk class). The clinical risk factors in the revised cardiac risk index cannot improve a risk stratification model based on B-type natriuretic peptides., (Anaesthesia © 2011 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.)

This study was conducted to assess the ability of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide levels to predict medium-term mortality in patients who undergo major noncardiac surgery. During a median of 654 days of follow-up, 33 patients from a total cohort of 204 patients (16%) died, 17 from cardiovascular causes. The optimal cutoff in this cohort, determined using a receiver-operating characteristic curve, was >35 pg . ml(-1). This was associated with a 3.5-fold increase in the hazard of death (p = 0.001) and a 6.9-fold increase in the hazard of cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.003). In conclusion, these findings extend recent work demonstrating that B-type natriuretic peptide levels obtained before major noncardiac surgery can be used to predict perioperative morbidity and indicate that they also forecast medium-term mortality, particularly cardiovascular death.

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels predict cardiovascular risk in several settings. We hypothesised that they would identify individuals at increased risk of complications and mortality following major emergency non-cardiac surgery. Forty patients were studied with a primary end-point of a new postoperative cardiac event, and/or development of significant ECG changes, and/or cardiac death. The main secondary outcome was all-cause mortality at 6 months. Pre-operative BNP levels were higher in 11 patients who suffered a new postoperative cardiac event (p = 0.001) and predicted this outcome with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85 (CI = 0.72-0.98, p = 0.001). A pre-operative BNP value > 170 pg x ml(-1) has a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 79% for the primary end-point. In this small study, pre-operative BNP levels identify patients undergoing major emergency non-cardiac surgery who are at increased risk of early postoperative cardiac events. Larger studies are required to confirm these data.

Background: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels predict cardiovascular risk in several settings. We hypothesized that they would identify individuals at increased risk of early cardiac complications after major non-cardiac surgery. The current study tests this hypothesis., Methods: Two hundred and four patients undergoing major non-cardiac surgery were studied. The primary end-point was the development of acute myocardial injury [defined as cardiac troponin I (cTnI) level > 0.32 ng ml(-1)] or death in the 3 days after surgery., Results: Preoperative BNP levels were raised in patients who died or suffered perioperative myocardial injury (median 52.2 vs 22.2 pg ml(-1), P = 0.01) and BNP predicted this outcome with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-0.86, P = 0.01]. A preoperative BNP value > 40 pg ml(-1) was associated with an increased risk of death or perioperative myocardial injury [odds ratio (OR) 6.8, 95% CI 1.8-25.9, P = 0.003], and remained independently predictive after correction for the Revised Cardiac Risk Index. Preoperative BNP levels were higher in patients who exhibited new onset atrial fibrillation or ST/T-wave changes on their postoperative ECG (median 50.5 vs 22.5 pg litre(-1), P = 0.01). They were also higher in patients who had either elevation of cTnI > 0.32 ng ml(-1) or postoperative ECG abnormalities (median 50.4 vs 21.5 pg ml(-1), P < 0.001)., Conclusions: In the setting of major non-cardiac surgery, preoperative BNP levels are higher in patients who experience perioperative death and myocardial injury. Larger studies are required to confirm these data and to clarify what BNP levels may add to existing methods of risk stratification.

Objective: Early warning scoring systems are widely used in clinical practice to allow early recognition of the deteriorating patient, but they lack validation. We aimed to test the ability of physiologic variables, either alone or in existing early scoring systems, to predict major deterioration in a patient's condition and attempt to derive functions with superior accuracy., Design: A comparative cohort study., Setting: A teaching hospital in Scotland., Patients: Two cohorts of general surgical high-dependency patients. The cohorts are a group of surgical high-dependency care patients who did not require intensive care admission and another group of patients who did require admission., Interventions: None., Measurements and Main Results: Prospective physiologic data on consecutive surgical high-dependency unit patients were collected and compared with physiologic data on patients admitted to the intensive care unit from the same surgical high-dependency units. Data were quality checked and summarized, and discriminant analysis and receiver operator curves were used to discriminate between the groups. There were significant physiologic differences between groups with regard to heart rate (p<.001, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.7), respiratory rate (p<.001, AUC 0.71), and oxygen saturation (p<.001, AUC 0.78) across time points. This was not present for systolic blood pressure or temperature. Existing early warning scoring systems had good discriminatory power (AUC 0.83-0.86). We derived discriminant functions, which have a high predictive ability to determine differences between groups (p<.0001, AUC 0.86-0.90). We found that heart rate and respiratory rate could detect differences between groups at 6 and 8 hrs before ICU admission, but oxygen saturation and the discriminant function 2 could detect differences 48 hrs before ICU admission., Conclusions: Some commonly used physiologic variables have reasonable power in determining the difference between patients requiring intensive care unit admission, but others are poor. Existing early warning scores have comparatively good discriminatory power. We have derived functions with excellent predictive power in this derivation cohort.