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Objective: The aim of the study was to develop a web-based calculator that predicts the likelihood of experiencing multiple, competing outcomes prospectively over 5, 10, and 15 years., Methods: Baseline demographic and medical data from a healthy and racially and ethnically diverse cohort of 161,808 postmenopausal women, aged 50 to 79 at study baseline, who participated in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), were used to develop and evaluate a risk-prediction calculator designed to predict individual risk for morbidity and mortality outcomes. Women were enrolled from 40 sites arranged in four regions of the United States. The calculator predicts all-cause mortality, adjudicated outcomes of health events (ie, myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, and hip fracture), and disease (lung, breast, and colorectal cancer). A proportional subdistribution hazards regression model was used to develop the calculator in a training dataset using data from three regions. The calculator was evaluated using the C-statistic in a test dataset with data from the fourth region., Results: The predictive validity of our calculator measured by the C-statistic in the test dataset for a first event at 5 and 15 years was as follows: MI 0.77, 0.61, stroke 0.77, 0.72, lung cancer 0.82, 0.79, breast cancer 0.60, 0.59, colorectal cancer 0.67, 0.60, hip fracture 0.79, 0.76, and death 0.74, 0.72., Conclusion: This study represents the first large-scale study to develop a risk prediction calculator that yields health risk prediction for several outcomes simultaneously. Development of this tool is a first step toward enabling women to prioritize interventions that may decrease these risks. : Video Summary:http://links.lww.com/MENO/A463.

Background: Kidney disease disproportionately affects minority populations, including African Americans and Hispanics; therefore, understanding the relationship of kidney function to cardiovascular (CV) outcomes within different racial/ethnic groups is of considerable interest. We investigated the relationship between kidney function and CV events and assessed effect modification by race/ethnicity in the Women's Health Initiative., Study Design: Prospective cohort study., Setting & Participants: Baseline serum creatinine concentrations (assay traceable to isotope-dilution mass spectrometry standard) of 19,411 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years who self-identified as either non-Hispanic white (n=8,921), African American (n=7,436), or Hispanic (n=3,054) were used to calculate estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs)., Predictors: Categories of eGFR (exposure); race/ethnicity (effect modifier)., Outcomes: The primary outcome was the composite of 3 physician-adjudicated CV events: myocardial infarction, stroke, or CV-related death., Measurements: We evaluated the multivariable-adjusted associations between categories of eGFR and CV events using proportional hazards regression and formally tested for effect modification by race/ethnicity., Results: During a mean follow-up of 7.6 years, 1,424 CV events (653 myocardial infarctions, 627 strokes, and 297 CV-related deaths) were observed. The association between eGFR and CV events was curvilinear; however, the association of eGFR with CV outcomes differed by race (P=0.006). In stratified analyses, we observed that the U-shaped association was present in non-Hispanic whites, whereas African American participants had a rather curvilinear relationship, with lower eGFR being associated with higher CV risk, and higher eGFR, with reduced CV risk. Analyses among Hispanic women were inconclusive owing to few Hispanic women having very low or high eGFRs and very few events occurring in these categories., Limitations: Lack of urinary albumin measurements; residual confounding by unmeasured or imprecisely measured characteristics., Conclusions: In postmenopausal women, the patterns of association between eGFR and CV risk differed between non-Hispanic whites and African American women., (Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: It is unclear whether obesity unaccompanied by metabolic abnormalities is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk across racial and ethnic subgroups., Methods and Results: We identified 14 364 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative who had data on fasting serum lipids and serum glucose and no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline. We categorized women by body mass index (in kg/m(2)) as normal weight (body mass index 18.5 to <25), overweight (body mass index 25 to <30), or obese (body mass index ≥30) and by metabolic health, defined first as the metabolic syndrome (metabolically unhealthy: ≥3 metabolic abnormalities) and second as the number of metabolic abnormalities. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to assess associations between baseline characteristics and cardiovascular risk. Over 13 years of follow-up, 1101 women had a first cardiovascular disease event (coronary heart disease or ischemic stroke). Among black women without metabolic syndrome, overweight women had higher adjusted cardiovascular risk than normal weight women (hazard ratio [HR] 1.49), whereas among white women without metabolic syndrome, overweight women had similar risk to normal weight women (HR 0.92, interaction P=0.05). Obese black women without metabolic syndrome had higher adjusted risk (HR 1.95) than obese white women (HR 1.07; interaction P=0.02). Among women with only 2 metabolic abnormalities, cardiovascular risk was increased in black women who were overweight (HR 1.77) or obese (HR 2.17) but not in white women who were overweight (HR 0.98) or obese (HR 1.06). Overweight and obese women with ≤1 metabolic abnormality did not have increased cardiovascular risk, regardless of race or ethnicity., Conclusions: Metabolic abnormalities appeared to convey more cardiovascular risk among black women., (© 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.)

Background: Insulin resistance is associated with diabetes mellitus, but it is uncertain whether it improves cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors., Methods and Results: We identified 15,288 women from the Women's Health Initiative Biomarkers studies with no history of CVD, atrial fibrillation, or diabetes mellitus at baseline (1993-1998). We assessed the prognostic value of adding fasting serum insulin, HOMA-IR (homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance), serum-triglyceride-to-serum-high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio TG/HDL-C, or impaired fasting glucose (serum glucose ≥110 mg/dL) to traditional risk factors in separate Cox multivariable analyses and assessed risk discrimination and reclassification. The study end point was major CVD events (nonfatal and fatal coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke) within 10 years, which occurred in 894 (5.8%) women. Insulin resistance was associated with CVD risk after adjusting for age and race/ethnicity with hazard ratios (95% confidence interval [CI]) per doubling in insulin of 1.21 (CI, 1.12-1.31), in HOMA-IR of 1.19 (CI, 1.11-1.28), in TG/HDL-C of 1.35 (CI, 1.26-1.45), and for impaired fasting glucose of 1.31 (CI, 1.05-1.64). Although insulin, HOMA-IR, and TG/HDL-C remained associated with increased CVD risk after adjusting for most CVD risk factors, none remained significant after adjusting for HDL-C: hazard ratios for insulin, 1.06 (CI, 0.98-1.16); for HOMA-IR, 1.06 (CI, 0.98-1.15); for TG/HDL-C, 1.11 (CI, 0.99-1.25); and for glucose, 1.20 (CI, 0.96-1.50). Insulin resistance measures did not improve CVD risk discrimination and reclassification., Conclusions: Measures of insulin resistance were no longer associated with CVD risk after adjustment for high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and did not provide independent prognostic information in postmenopausal women without diabetes mellitus., Clinical Trial Registration Information: URL: http://www.clinicaltrial.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00000611., (© 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.)

BackgroundUrinary incontinence affects >40% of women in the United States, with an annual societal cost of >$12 billion and demonstrated associations with depressive symptoms, social isolation, and loss of work productivity. Weight has been established as an exposure that increases urinary incontinence risk and certain dietary components have been associated with urinary incontinence symptoms. We hypothesized that diet plays a key role in the association between weight and urinary incontinence in US women.ObjectiveThis study aimed to examine the effect of a low-fat diet on urinary incontinence in postmenopausal women as a post hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial of diet modification.Study designThis was a post hoc analysis of the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification randomized controlled trial of 48,835 postmenopausal women from 40 US centers assigned to a dietary intervention (20% energy from fat, 5 fruits or vegetable servings, and 6 whole grain servings daily and an intensive behavioral modification program) or to the usual diet comparison group. The outcome was urinary incontinence at 1 year.ResultsOf the participants, 60% were randomized to the usual diet comparison group and 40% to the dietary modification intervention. After adjusting for weight change, women assigned to the dietary modification intervention were less likely to report urinary incontinence (odds ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-0.98; P=.003), more likely to report urinary incontinence resolution (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.19; P=.01), and less likely to develop urinary incontinence (odds ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.98; P=.01) in adjusted models.ConclusionDietary modification may be a reasonable treatment for postmenopausal women with incontinence and also a urinary incontinence prevention strategy for continent women. Our results provide evidence to support a randomized clinical trial to determine whether a reduced fat-intake dietary modification is an effective intervention for the prevention and treatment of urinary incontinence. In addition to providing further insights into mechanisms of lower urinary tract symptoms, these findings may have a substantial impact on public health based on the evidence that diet seems to be a modifiable risk factor for urinary incontinence.

ObjectiveThe aim of the study was to develop a web-based calculator that predicts the likelihood of experiencing multiple, competing outcomes prospectively over 5, 10, and 15 years.MethodsBaseline demographic and medical data from a healthy and racially and ethnically diverse cohort of 161,808 postmenopausal women, aged 50 to 79 at study baseline, who participated in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), were used to develop and evaluate a risk-prediction calculator designed to predict individual risk for morbidity and mortality outcomes. Women were enrolled from 40 sites arranged in four regions of the United States. The calculator predicts all-cause mortality, adjudicated outcomes of health events (ie, myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, and hip fracture), and disease (lung, breast, and colorectal cancer). A proportional subdistribution hazards regression model was used to develop the calculator in a training dataset using data from three regions. The calculator was evaluated using the C-statistic in a test dataset with data from the fourth region.ResultsThe predictive validity of our calculator measured by the C-statistic in the test dataset for a first event at 5 and 15 years was as follows: MI 0.77, 0.61, stroke 0.77, 0.72, lung cancer 0.82, 0.79, breast cancer 0.60, 0.59, colorectal cancer 0.67, 0.60, hip fracture 0.79, 0.76, and death 0.74, 0.72.ConclusionThis study represents the first large-scale study to develop a risk prediction calculator that yields health risk prediction for several outcomes simultaneously. Development of this tool is a first step toward enabling women to prioritize interventions that may decrease these risks. : Video Summary:http://links.lww.com/MENO/A463.

The purpose of this study was to determine whether sleep characteristics are associated with incidence of treated diabetes in postmenopausal individuals. Postmenopausal participants ages 50-79 years reported sleep duration, sleep-disordered breathing, or insomnia at baseline and again in a subsample 3 years later. The primary outcome was self-reported new diagnosis of diabetes treated with oral drugs or insulin at any time after baseline. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used. In 135,964 participants followed for 18.1 (± 6.3) years, there was a nonlinear association between sleep duration and risk of treated diabetes. Participants sleeping ≤5 hours at baseline had a 21% increased risk of diabetes compared with those sleeping 7 hours (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.47). Those who slept for ≥9 hours had a nonsignificant 6% increased risk of diabetes compared with those sleeping 7 hours (aHR 1.06; 95% CI, 0.97-1.16). Participants whose sleep duration had decreased at 3 years had a 9% (aHR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.16) higher risk of diabetes than participants with unchanged sleep duration. Participants who reported increased sleep duration at 3 years had a risk of diabetes (HR 1.01; 95% CI, 0.95-1.08) similar to those with no sleep duration change. Participants at high risk of sleep-disordered breathing at baseline had a 31% higher risk of diabetes than those without (aHR 1.31; 95% CI, 1.26-1.37). No association was found between self-reported insomnia score and diabetes risk. Sleep-disordered breathing and short or long sleep duration were associated with higher diabetes risk in a postmenopausal population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sun exposure is a major risk factor for skin cancer; however, the relative contribution of ultraviolet (UV) exposure during childhood versus adulthood on skin cancer risk remains unclear. Objective: Our goal was to determine the impact of residential UV, measured by AVerage daily total GLObal solar radiation (AVGLO), exposure during childhood (birth, 15 years) versus adulthood (35, 50 years, and present) on incident non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) and malignant melanoma (MM) in postmenopausal women. Methods: Women were followed with yearly surveys throughout the duration of their participation in the Women's Health Initiative Observational study, a multicenter study from 1993 to 2005. A total of 56,557 women had data on all observations and were included in the baseline characteristics. The main exposure, residential UV (as measured by AVGLO), was measured by geographic residence during childhood and adulthood. Outcome was risk of incident NMSC and MM. Results: Over 11.9 years (median follow-up), there were 9,195 (16.3 %) cases of NMSC and 518 (0.92 %) cases of MM. Compared with the reference group (women with low childhood and low adulthood UV), women with low childhood and high adulthood UV had a 21 % increased risk of NMSC (odds ratio 1.21, 95 % confidence interval 1.12, 1.31). Women with high childhood and high adulthood UV had a 19 % increased risk of NMSC (odds ratio 1.19, 95 % confidence interval 1.11, 1.27). Surprisingly, women with high childhood UV and low adulthood UV did not have a significant increase in NMSC risk compared with the reference group (odds ratio 1.08, 95 % confidence interval 0.91, 1.28) in multivariable models. Residential UV exposure in childhood or adulthood was not associated with increased melanoma risk. Conclusion: This study reveals an increase in NMSC risk associated with adulthood residential UV exposure, with no effect for childhood UV exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The associations of coffee and caffeine intakes with the risk of incident hypertension remain controversial. Objective: We sought to assess longitudinal relations of caffeinated coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and total caffeine intakes with mean blood pressure and incident hypertension in postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study. Design: In a large prospective study, type and amount of coffee and total caffeine intakes were assessed by using self-reported questionnaires. Hypertension status was ascertained by using measured blood pressure and self-reported drug-treated hypertension. The mean intakes of caffeinated coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and caffeine were 2-3 cups/d, 1 cup/d, and 196 mg/d, respectively. Using multivariable linear regression, we examined the associations of baseline intakes of caffeinated coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and caffeine with measured systolic and diastolic blood pressures at annual visit 3 in 29,985 postmenopausal women who were not hypertensive at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate HRs and their 95% CIs for time to incident hypertension. Results: During 112,935 person-years of follow-up, 5566 cases of incident hypertension were reported. Neither caffeinated coffee nor caffeine intake was associated with mean systolic or diastolic blood pressure, but decaffeinated coffee intake was associated with a small but clinically irrelevant decrease in mean diastolic blood pressure. Decaffeinated coffee intake was not associated with mean systolic blood pressure. Intakes of caffeinated coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and caffeine were not associated with the risk of incident hypertension (P-trend > 0.05 for all). Conclusion: In summary, these findings suggest that caffeinated coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and caffeine are not risk factors for hypertension in postmenopausal women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]