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The recent reversal of capital flows to emerging markets has pointed up the continuing relevance of the sudden stop problem. This paper analyzes the sudden stops in capital flows to emerging markets since 1991. It shows that the frequency and duration of sudden stops have remained largely unchanged, but that the relative importance of different factors in their incidence has changed. In particular, global factors appear to have become more important relative to country-specific characteristics and policies. Sudden stops now tend to affect different parts of the world simultaneously rather than bunching regionally. Stronger macroeconomic and financial frameworks have allowed policy makers to respond more flexibly, but these more flexible responses have not guaranteed insulation or mitigated the impact of the phenomenon. These findings suggest that the challenge of understanding and coping with capital-flow volatility is far from fully met.

South Asia emerged as the fastest growing region in the world in 2015, posting GDP growth of 7 percent. Weak oil and commodity prices, slowing capital flows and shrinking global trade contributed towards a deceleration of growth in most of the world's economies. South Asia - as a net importer of oil - was an anomaly, growing significantly on the back of higher private consumption and public investment. Higher remittances and reserve buffers throughout the region offset the fall in exports caused by the drop in global demand. The region is set to maintain real GDP growth above 7 percent over the next few years. However, the tailwinds are now fading - capital flows have declined and remittances are starting to feel the reality of low oil prices. Pakistan, while not growing as quickly as its neighbors, has continued its steady growth recovery in H1FY16. Strong growth in consumption, rising foreign exchange reserves, fast-growing workers' remittances and a lower import bill compensated for a significant fall in exports. Low oil prices generated a significant boost, driving a 9.1 percent fall in the import bill and reducing inflation significantly, in turn creating scope to reduce the policy rate. Private sector consumption, propelled by higher remittances and a loosened monetary policy, is expected to account for over half of FY16 GDP growth.

This report sets forth details of a financial recovery plan designed to help Vietnam Electricity (EVN), and the Vietnamese power sector more generally, to address a series of complex and interconnected challenges over the next 3 to 10 years. These challenges are operational and institutional as well as financial, and will lead to fundamental changes over time in the way that EVN and the overall power sector operate.

Ukraines vast needs in infrastructure coupled with a constrained fiscal space require concerted efforts in strengthening public investment management. Investments in infrastructure are important for fostering economic growth. Translating public investments into assets crucially depends on how efficiently all types of public investments are management. The structure to handle PPPs is currently inadequate to access the global PPP market. Since a PPP system needs to be built on the foundations of a workable PIM system, the prospects for Ukraine attracting international standard investments from the global PPP market may appear to be out of reach for the time being. Recent reforming legislation aimed at fixing some of the issues highlighted in the 2012 PIM Assessment is encouraging but much will depend on the effectiveness of the implementation and the capacity of the institutional actors to understand and absorb them. This Assessment must by its very nature capture the situation at the time of the Assessment rather than an expectation of future potential.

The objective of this paper is to understand the factors driving the location decisions of multinational corporations. The paper uses literature-review and expert-interview techniques to understand what cities can do to be best positioned to attract international capital.

Using the universe of all externally issued bonds by corporates and sovereigns in emerging and developing economies during 2000-14, this paper analyzes various issuance trends, including the unprecedented post-crisis surge. The paper focuses on external issuance at the country-industry and individual bond levels and finds that global factors matter greatly for emerging and developing economies issuance. A decrease in U.S. expected equity market (or interest rate) volatility, U.S. corporate credit spreads, and U.S. interbank funding costs and an increase in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (i) raise the odds that the monthly issuance volume of a country-industry is above its historical average; (ii) decrease individual bond yields and spreads; and (iii) raise bond maturities, after controlling for country pull factors, bond characteristics (for example, type of issuer, industry, and riskiness). Additionally, we document support that the risk-taking channel of exchange rate appreciation also operates for external bond issuance. Moreover, while the paper finds that country pull factors affect the impact of global factors, it does not find consistent evidence for this across the board. This result suggests that, during loose global funding conditions, flows are mostly driven by push factors and do not systematically discriminate between emerging and developing economies. Taken together, the findings suggest that although issuers might be able to benefit from benign international funding conditions, the large issuance volumes, currency risks, and high exposure to global factors could pose external and domestic challenges for policy makers, particularly when global cycles reverse.

Kenya’s economic performance remains solid, underpinned by strong infrastructure spending and consumer demand, which are driving growth. Growth in 2015 is estimated at 5.4 percent, a 0.6 percent downward revision from its estimate in December 2014. The revision reflects the strong headwinds the economy is facing in the foreign exchange market and the monetary policy response to calm those fears.

This background note is intended to assist debt management offices (DMOs) in assessing whether a bond placement scheme combining auctions and syndications is an appropriate strategy in their markets and, if so, to assist them in designing the corresponding procedures.

This is a book about directorship. More precisely, it’s about nominee directors, who are nominated by IFC and other development finance institutions (DFIs) to the boards of investee companies to fulfill a dual mandate: first, they are expected to perform all the duties and tasks of a board member. Second, they are also charged with improving the corporate governance, sustainability, and ethical behavior of the investee company. This need exists because the empirical evidence indicates that in many developing countries it is nearly impossible to create long-term shareholder value without marked improvements in these areas. This book, based on sound research and real-life examples, offers not only a useful learning platform but also, the authors hope, an entertaining read. It focuses on directorship and leadership skills in the boardroom and does not attempt to cover the whole ‘waterfront’ on corporate governance issues. Many other publications (including some found on the IFC website) deal extensively with the structures, processes, and legal frameworks of corporate governance. The story emphasizes the learning and adapting that must go on for a nominee director to be effective in encouraging change and improvement on the board and in the company. It draws on specific situations to illustrate that IFC rules and instructions cannot always be perfectly followed: the nominee director is in the ‘heat of the battle,’ under time pressure, and confronted with dilemmas and uncertainty that only in hindsight can be structured and analyzed clearly. The target audience of the incredible adventures of Carla is nominee directors, especially those who are newly appointed or candidates who are considering taking on such a role. It aims to expose them to the challenges in the behavioral dimension of corporate governance and to help them learn, through Carla’s experience, the actions and communications that can help them, or not help them, achieve the goals they are committed to.

This Report on Observance and Codes-Accounting and Auditing (ROSC-A&A) assesses the corporate sector accounting, financial reporting, and auditing practices in Jamaica. It builds on its predecessor, a 2003 ROSC-A&A, and its aims to assist the Government of Jamaica's efforts to strengthen accounting and auditing practices and to enhance financial transparency in the corporate sector, so as to support the Government's economic reform program and provide greater confidence to current and potential investors with respect to the financial reporting environment. Jamaica has embarked on an economic reform program whose main objectives are to contain the country's growing economic and external vulnerabilities and address economic imbalances, while putting the country on a path to sustainable growth. Important reforms include: (a) strengthening public finances, including through comprehensive tax reform, expenditure rationalization, and improved public debt management and public financial management; (b) enhancing the resilience of the financial sector through strengthened supervisory, regulatory, and crisis-management frameworks; and (c) improving growth generating efficiency through enhancements to the business environment and strengthened institutional capacity and governance.

Kenya withstood another difficult year in 2012 as policy tightening and weaker global demand slowed economic activity. With decisive fiscal and monetary policies, the government managed to restore confidence in Kenya's medium term prospects. Kenya's growth rate is still below its potential and its peers, external imbalances remain which threaten its future growth, and the pace of economic growth is not generating enough modern sector wage jobs. With the passage of the new constitution in 2010 and its implementation, stronger institutions are emerging, putting Kenya on a sound footing ready to take off. In the very short term, what remains to be done is for Kenya to deliver a credible and peaceful election in March 2013, and thereafter a smooth transfer of power. In the medium term, Kenya will need to start building a stronger foundation for growth, and undertake structural reforms to correct the external imbalances. To generate more jobs for the burgeoning educated youth population, Kenya will also need to reduce the transaction cost for firms, by reducing job-smothering corruption and the cost of doing business (particularly in transport and energy).

Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has slowed to a nine year low of 6.5 percent for FY2011-12, from 8.4 percent in the two previous years. The slowdown was most pronounced in the industrial sector, and more specifically in manufacturing and mining. In the quarter ending in June 2012, industrial output growth as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has been negative. The contraction was particularly pronounced in the production of capital goods, which is in line with falling investment demand on the expenditure side of the National Accounts. The current account deficit reached a record 4.2 percent of GDP in FY2011-12, because of decelerating export growth and high crude prices. Merchandise exports grew by 41 percent in September 2011, but their growth slowed to 2 percent by August 2012 (measured as 12-months cumulative exports compared with the same 12 months of the previous year). Inflation reached 7.6 percent in August 2012. This represents a marked slowdown since September 2011, but there has been an uptick in food prices in recent months. Also, higher domestic prices for fuel, which are necessary to rein in spending on subsidies, will contribute to inflationary pressure. Inflation is therefore expected to reach 8 percent at end-March 2013. Real GDP growth is forecast to reach around 6.0 percent in FY2012-13, after 5.3 percent growth Q4 of FY2011-12 and 5.5 percent growth in Q1 of FY2012-13. The slowdown is at least partly caused by structural problems. These include power shortages, which are partly caused by the financial difficulties facing the electricity sector as discussed in the special topic section of this update, the corruption scandals that have hit the mining and telecom sectors, investor uncertainty because of pending changes in legislation (mining, taxes, land acquisition), and the tightening constraints of land and infrastructure. Tighter macroeconomic policies, slow growth in the core Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and worries about another global recession also weigh on growth. Important signals to revive domestic growth drivers to lift sentiment more than produce instant efficiency gains could come from reforms recently announced and, more importantly, the reform of direct taxes, the implementation of the long-delayed Goods and Services Tax (GST), and passage of the land acquisition and mining bills. This update also looks closely at two important topics for medium- and long-term growth, namely India's Right to Education (RTE) Act, which aims to shape elementary education, and the financial difficulties in the Indian power sector.

This paper focused on the delivery mechanisms for bilateral, multi-lateral, host government subsidy, and consumer cross-subsidy funding to enhance private sector investment. However, the specific source of funds is not deemed to be especially relevant for the purposes of this working paper. Focus on some of the useful characteristics of Output-Based Aid (OBA) experience to date that may be relevant. Propose an option for how OBA experience could be used to deliver national and programmatic supports to projects in middle- and low-income countries in coordination with other multi-lateral development bank instruments such as concessional loans and credits. This working paper does not: specifically address strengths and weaknesses of the clean development mechanism and only briefly touches on issues with using carbon finance in the current market. Carry out an assessment of experience with feed-in tariffs or advanced market commitments, or indeed other results orientated schemes.

Afghanistan's economy is growing strongly. The growth drivers in recent years have been above-average agricultural production, strong growth in construction and transportation, and security spending enabled by large aid flows, especially in FY2009/10. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 8.4 percent in FY2010/11. Afghanistan's fiscal position is strengthening. In the last three years revenues grew by an average of 34 percent p.a., thanks to improvements in customs and tax administration. Larger increases are expected once mining operations and with the introduction of a value-added tax in FY2014/15. However, government expenditures will also increase in the coming years due to higher security spending, the roll out of pay-and-grading reforms for the civil service, rising recurrent obligations from large donor-supported projects (including those financed outside of the core budget) and the fiscal costs of the Kabul Bank bail-out. The first phase of the handover of security responsibilities to Afghan national security forces in six locations has been completed.

Indonesia's economic performance through mid-2011 has been positive. Solid growth has been accompanied by further portfolio capital and foreign direct investment inflows. Public and financial sector balance sheets remain strong. However, events over the past quarter serve as a reminder of a number of Indonesia's ongoing policy challenges. At the same time, the launch of the government's master plan 2011-2025 has focused attention on the investments and policy reforms which can help Indonesia reach its future growth potential. Finally, heightened international risk aversion originating from the Greek debt crisis, and the potential market implications of any haircut, were it to occur, are a reminder of the external shocks which could prompt reversals of short-term capital flows to Indonesia. However, events over the past quarter are a reminder of the current challenges which are faced and the need to put in place, and implement, the policies and investments necessary for Indonesia to reach its potential as a leading global growth driver of the next few decades.

This study begins by considering the banking sector and then moves on to issues relating to improving access to finance to support Nigeria's economic growth vision. The second part of the study refers to issues relating to longer-term finance: both the sources of financing, such as pensions and insurance, and their uses in providing financing for resolving Nigeria's crucial infrastructure shortfalls in infrastructure and housing. The final part of the study returns to the fundamental 'plumbing' of the financial system focusing on the legal and regulatory foundation for creditor rights and corporate insolvency, instituting sound corporate governance standards for corporations and banks, and providing secure and low cost transmittal of payments and remittances. While it is difficult to identify a common theme running through this volume without compromising the diversity and nuance of the recommendations, the overarching theme supported by this volume is the importance of exchange of reliable information as the basis for financial transactions between unconnected third parties. Implementation of systems designed to strengthen accounting and reporting standards for banks and corporations, the registration of movable and immovable property, property liens and credit histories as well as exchange of information about prices, interest rates, fees and charges for financials services will considerably enhance the functionality of financial systems and prove crucial in establishing a trusted and robust market-based financial system in support of stable economic growth and development in Nigeria.

While diversification of exports is often a desirable trade objective, it is far from clear how best to tap into new opportunities. This paper discusses the range of avenues of diversification, including (i) expanding the range of markets into which existing products are sold (geographic diversification); (ii) upgrading the value of existing products, including agricultural exports (quality diversification); and (iii) taking advantage of opportunities to expand non-merchandise exports (services diversification), in addition to introducing entirely new export products. All offer opportunities for cost?effective positive policies relating to the incentive regime, backbone services, and export support institutions.

International mutual funds are one of the main channels for capital flows to emerging economies. Although mutual funds have become important contributors to financial market integration, little is known about their investment allocation, and strategies. The authors provide an overview of mutual fund activity in emerging markets. First, they describe international mutual funds' relative size, asset allocation, and country allocation. Second, they focus on fund behavior during crises, by analyzing data at the level of both investors, and fund managers. Among their findings: Equity investment in emerging markets has grown rapidly in the 1990s, much of it flowing through mutual funds. Collectively, these funds hold a sizable share of market capitalization in emerging economies. Asian, and Latin American funds achieved the fastest growth, but are smaller than domestic U.S. funds and world funds. When investigating abroad, U.S. mutual funds invest more in equity than in bonds. World funds invest mainly in developed nations (Canada, Europe, Japan, and the United States). Ten percent of their investment is in Asia, and Latin America. Mutual funds usually invest in a few countries within each region. Mutual fund investment was very responsive to the crises of the 1990s. Withdrawals from emerging markets during recent crises were large, which squares with existing evidence of financial contagion. Investments in Asian, and Latin American mutual funds are volatile. Because redemptions, and injections are large, relative to total funds under management, fund's flows are not stable. The cash held by managers during injections, and redemptions does not fluctuate significantly, so investors' actions are typically reflected in emerging market inflows, and outflows.

Among 51 countries studied, there are large regional differences in the proportion of private wealth held abroad, ranging from 3 percent in South Asia to 39 percent in Africa. Three variables explain capital flight in Africa: exchange rate overvaluation, adverse investor risk ratings, and high indebtedness. Collier, Hoeffler, and Pattillo examine flight capital in the context of portfolio choice. They estimate the stock of flight capital held abroad and compare it with the stock of real (nonfinancial) capital held within each country. For 51 countries, they construct estimates (as of 1990) of private domestic capital and flight capital - which combined add up to domestic wealth. There are large regional differences in the proportion of private wealth that is held abroad, ranging from 3 percent in South Asia to 39 percent in Africa. They explain differences in portfolio choice in terms of the capital to labor ratio, indebtedness, exchange rate distortions, and risk ratings-all proxies for differences in the risk-adjusted rate of return on capital. They then apply the results to four policy questions in which private portfolio choices are potentially important: the effect of the East Asian crisis on domestic capital outflows; spillovers; the effect of HIPC debt relief on capital repatriation; and why Africa has so much of its private wealth outside the continent. Their conclusions: The four most severely affected East Asian countries will eventually lose about $250 billion in domestic wealth as a result of the deterioration in risk between March 1997 and September 1998. They found some support for a spillover model. The effect of the HIPC debt relief initiative on capital repatriation will vary massively between HIPC-eligible countries. Africa has by far the lowest capital per worker, which makes massive capital flight from Africa all the more distinctive. Three variables explain capital flight in Africa: exchange rate overvaluation, adverse investor risk ratings, and high indebtedness. This paper-a joint product of the Development Research Group and the International Monetary Fund-is part of a larger effort to understand how growth in low income countries can be increased. Paul Collier may be contacted at pcollier@worldbank.org.