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This essay considers the rural-to-urban transition and correlates it with urban energy demands. Three distinct themes are inspected and interrelated to develop awareness for an urbanizing world: internal urban design and innovation, technical transition, and geopolitical change. Data were collected on the use of energy in cities and, by extension, nation states over the last 30 years. The\ud urban population boom continues to pressure the energy dimension with heavily weighted impacts\ud on less developed regions. Sustainable urban energy will need to reduce resource inputs and environmental impacts and decouple economic growth from energy consumption. Fossil fuels continue to\ud be the preferred method of energy for cities; however, an increased understanding is emerging that\ud sustainable energy forms can be implemented as alternatives. Key to this transition will be the will to\ud invest in renewables (i.e., solar, wind, hydro, tidal, geothermal, and biomass), efficient infrastructure,\ud and smart eco-city designs. This essay elucidates how the technical transition of energy-friendly technologies focuses on understanding the changes in the energy mix from non-renewable to renewable.\ud Smart electricity storage grids with artificial intelligence can operate internationally and alleviate\ud some geopolitical barriers. Energy politics is shown to be a problematic hurdle with case research\ud examples specific to Central and Eastern Europe. The energy re-shift stressed is a philosophical\ud re-thinking of modern cities as well as a new approach to the human-energy relationship.

Aging, European Union consolidation, and human mobility across countries are three entangled processes making the Mediterranean region of Europe an attractive retirement place thanks to mild climate and lower costs of living. Residential mobility of retired workers in Europe has grown rapidly since the 1980s because of increased wealth, transportation improvements, and flexibility of working lives. However, residential mobility after retirement was occasionally investigated in relation with economic cycles; recession was hypothesized to negatively impact residential mobility from Northern/Western/Central Europe to Mediterranean countries. Considering economic and population dynamics over the last three decades, the present work documents the drastic reduction in the number of European immigrants in Greece after the 2007 recession, with the exception of retirees. Job shortage and worse socioeconomic conditions were demonstrated to alter settlement patterns and location preferences of migrants at both younger and older ages. Results of our study suggest a rethinking of the role of spatial planning and developmental measures in local communities less organized to host increasing flows of retirees from Northern Europe. Being increasingly required to provide services for aging population, social policies should reconcile retirement migration with internal demographic dynamics and the specificity of local contexts, promoting finely tuned taxation systems and appropriate spatial infrastructures.

Fertility is a key process shaping long-term population dynamics. Distinctive fertility trends have characterized demographic transitions, exhibiting sequential periods of spatial convergence and divergence. This descriptive study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Crude Birth Rate (CBR) at different geographical scales in Italy between 2002 and 2018. Descriptive statistics of the TFR and CBR values across geographical scales were computed and the associated maps were prepared for the most detailed spatial levels available; specifically, down to the municipality level. Spatial analysis at the provincial and municipality level was based on both global and local Moran's indexes. Southern Italy, a mostly disadvantaged region, was characterized by relatively stable fertility patterns; fertility then decreased following an opposite trend with respect to economic conditions. The reverse relationship was observed in Northern Italy. As such, economic expansion and recession impacted fertility more intensively in Northern Italy.

Studies on residential segregation of foreign population in Southern Europe usually focus on capital cities, omitting the metropolitan dimension and paying less attention to use of comparable analysis’ spatial scales. These issues, together with the dominant use of two-group segregation indexes, prevent identification and classification of metropolitan patterns of residential segregation in such contexts. To overcome these key issues, the spatial segregation of foreign population in 16 Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) was investigated in Italy and Spain using global and local multi-group segregation indexes based on a regular geometry (100 m grid) and confronted with socioeconomic indicators profiling the local context. Results of this study reveal the absence of common metropolitan patterns of residential segregation in both countries. In turn, a greater level of residential segregation is correlated with a lower presence of immigrant population and depressed socioeconomic conditions of each FUA, suggesting the existence of a downward spiral toward social vulnerability in the most disadvantaged cities. These results finally indicate the increasing difficulties faced by foreigners in order to access the real estate market in Southern European cities.

In 1885, Ravenstein formulated his “laws” of migration, based on the experience of the British Isles. In a further 1889 paper, he extended his analysis as a tour d’horizon of migration and population changes in other nations, including Italy. Even if social and economic processes including globalisation and rising mobility have changed the world since then, Ravenstein’s “laws” remain a point of reference today. Harnessing theoretical and methodological advances made since the 19th century, this paper describes and seeks to explain the role of international and internal migration in regional population change in Italy from 2002-2017. This paper provides the first geographically detailed migration analysis for the country’s 611 Local Labour Market Areas (LLMAs), using register-based migration and population data. Our contribution focuses on several of Ravenstein’s “laws” relating to gender (differences between men and women), natives and non-natives (differences between the Italian and the foreign population), distance migrated from origin to destination, and the role of the economy in shaping push and pull factors of migration. The results show that international migration is more prominent among men than women. In the case of internal moves, the rates of migration among men and women are similar, and internal migration is more prominent among the foreign than the native Italian population. Overall, international migration gains contribute substantially more to population change than internal migration gains and losses do. In Italy, the effects of persistent economic imbalances and of distance on migration patterns are not in line with Ravenstein’s hypotheses: not all areas with high unemployment show an effect of dispersion, nor does distance always act as a deterrent to migration. The geographically detailed analysis presented here illustrates the temporal and spatial coexistence of diverse international and internal migration processes depending on local characteristics, as well as the importance of the economic or administrative centres as the driving force behind national patterns. Our results show that, even 130 years after their formulation, Ravenstein’s migration “laws” (more accurately called “hypotheses” today) are still a valuable starting point in assessing and understanding migration processes and their role in regional population change. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.

Density-dependent population growth regulates long-term urban expansion and shapes distinctive socioeconomic trends. Despite a marked heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the resident population, Mediterranean European countries are considered more homogeneous than countries in other European regions as far as settlement structure and processes of metropolitan growth are concerned. However, rising socioeconomic inequalities among Southern European regions reflect latent demographic and territorial transformations that require further investigation. An integrated assessment of the spatio-temporal distribution of resident populations in more than 1,000 municipalities (1961&ndash, 2011) was carried out in this study to characterize density-dependent processes of metropolitan growth in Greece. Using geographically weighted regressions, the results of our study identified distinctive local relationships between population density and growth rates over time. Our results demonstrate that demographic growth rates were non-linearly correlated with other variables, such as population density, with positive and negative impacts during the first (1961&ndash, 1971) and the last (2001&ndash, 2011) observation decade, respectively. These findings outline a progressive shift over time from density-dependent processes of population growth, reflecting a rapid development of large metropolitan regions (Athens, Thessaloniki) in the 1960s, to density-dependent processes more evident in medium-sized cities and accessible rural regions in the 2000s. Density-independent processes of population growth have been detected in the intermediate study period (1971&ndash, 2001). This work finally discusses how a long-term analysis of demographic growth, testing for density-dependent mechanisms, may clarify the intrinsic role of population concentration and dispersion in different phases of the metropolitan cycle in Mediterranean Europe.

Metropolitan regions in Europe experienced intense demographic change from accelerated population expansion sustained by high fertility and immigration to zero (or negative) growth and aging. Such transformations are particularly complex in Southern Europe and lead to a shift from the impressive urban growth driven by industrialization to a more recent de-concentration of inner cities and scattered metropolitan expansion. Based on long-term population data, the present study assumes that urban expansion and demographic trends in Southern Europe no longer follow sequential phases of growth and decline, being characterized by non-linear urban expansion and distinctive demographic trends. Such hypothesis was tested considering a complete urban cycle and the associated population trends over a sufficiently long time interval (1848–2011) in metropolitan Athens, Greece. Population increase was assessed through the analysis of long-term census data made available on a district scale. Such analysis provided information on the spatial distribution of resident population and allowed identification of multiple expansion waves only partly aligned with predictions of the urban cycle model. The complex interplay between long-term fertility-mortality dynamics and short-term migration trends in Athens justifies deviations from model’s predictions. A long-term analysis of population trends at local scale contributes to re-contextualize urban cycles within the (more general) debate on demographic transitions, evidencing together the multi-scalar influence of population dynamics on metropolitan expansion and the importance of a historical analysis of population growth from the beginning of the modern urban experience.

The foreign population has become a structural trait of Italian society, and its territorial integration a key factor in social sustainability. Mixed couples, an emerging phenomenon in the Italian context, are leading to a change in social space and residential geography of the local environment. Encouraging an improvement in the level of territorial integration of the foreign population, by the host, plays an important role in understanding demographic changes. This chapter proposes a theoretical reflection on the importance of territorial integration of foreigners and an assessment of the dimensional effects it presents to the host societies’ social cohesion, and an empirical application to examine the relationships between foreigner residential integration and mixed couples. Results indicate that the increase in mixed couples leads to a weakening of residential segregation and therefore to greater territorial integration of the foreign population in the host society. Taking level of segregation of other ethnic groups under control, the effect of mixed couples on the level of residential segregation remains negative, while at the same time, the level of residential segregation of a given foreign community is positively correlated with other foreign community’s level of residential segregation. The territorial integration of foreigners is, thus, strongly linked to the local, social environment in context of multi-segregation. From this perspective, the growth of mixed-race couples, at least within a territorial dimension, can represent an agent of change in the social space modifying the majority and minority groups’ residential geography.

Population decline is a major issue impacting environmental sustainability, economic growth and social well-being. Although earlier studies evaluated demographic factors, social forces and economic aspects associated with population decline in Europe, the role of territorial factors was less considered when investigating the spatial linkages between rural depopulation and the local context. As demographic patterns are the result of past dynamics depending on place-specific factors, this study hypothesizes that (time-invariant) territorial characteristics (altitude, geographical area, proximity to the sea, and urban hierarchy) are important drivers of the spatial variability in depopulation rates on a local scale. To verify this assumption, changes over time (1981–2011) in resident populations of Italian municipalities were investigated and a regression model aimed at identifying the relevant factors shaping the population decline in Italy was run separately for three decades (1981–1991, 1991–2001, 2001–2011) with depopulation rate as the dependent variable. Model estimation was based on a system of simultaneous equations where the dependent variable at time t is an explanatory variable of the model at a subsequent time (t + 1). Results show that basic territorial factors – and especially altitude - impacted significantly on local-scale depopulation rates. North-south differences in population decline emerged more clearly in the last decade. Municipalities with a declining population at a given time were more likely to experience depopulation also in the subsequent decade. These findings highlight the relevant role of territorial factors in shaping depopulation across Italy and the importance of a spatially explicit analysis of demographic dynamics for local development research and policy.

The relationship between population dynamics and desertification risk in advanced economies is increasingly dependent on the mutual interplay of socioeconomic forces at regional and local scales. Assuming that specific, long-term demographic dynamics are associated with a given level of desertification risk, the present study investigates population trends between 1861 and 2017 and the spatial linkage with the level of desertification risk in Southern Italy, a European region where more than 20 % of land is exposed to degradation processes. Areas classified at the highest risk of desertification experienced intense population growth between 1951 and 1981. Reflecting the latest stage of the first demographic transition in Italy, such dynamics have caused an increasing human pressure on coastal districts, peri-urban areas and flat rural land. Since the early 1980s, population growth was less intense and more heterogeneous over space. Such dynamics led to a discontinuous urban expansion and the formation of a ‘third space’ – neither urban nor rural – with a consequent increase in the rate of land take. These outcomes, typical of the early stage of the second demographic transition, were mostly uncorrelated with the level of desertification risk. The spatial association between population dynamics and desertification risk characteristic of the first demographic transition in Southern Italy outlines the importance of regional developmental policies aimed at rebalancing territorial disparities for land degradation mitigation in the Mediterranean region.

Taylor’s power law (Tpl) is applied to the human population density of Italian regions and provinces for the period 1971–2011. Three different weighting systems are used to estimate Tpl at the national and subnational levels in which seemingly unrelated regression models are adopted. The following results were found: Tpl is suitable for human populations and sensitive to the adopted weighting system; Tpl’s slope is positive and, at a subnational level, has an inverse behaviour with respect to the spatial variability of the weighting variables; and Tpl’s slope can be viewed as an indicator of a population’s spatial distribution homogeneity.

Population movements (international and internal migration) and changing fertility and mortality patterns have significantly affected demographic structures. Investigation of the relationship between (evolving) population structures and economic downturns is a key issue in economic demography. Analysis of compositional changes in regional population structures over a sufficiently long time interval may provide an informed knowledge to better understanding of this relationship and the underlying socioeconomic context in European countries. Based on these premises, Greece was considered a paradigmatic case of sequential economic expansions and recessions, impacting the structure of resident population in the last four decades. In this work, changes over time in population structures by age in Greek regions were explored (1981–2017) using a multi-temporal principal component analysis. A diachronic analysis of compositional effects of economic downturns on regional population structures indicates spatially-heterogeneous demographic processes in Greece. The subsequent recession has represented a turning point in Greek demography, consolidating changes in traditional family structures, while stimulating out-migration at younger ages to Northern and Western European regions and containing immigration from developing countries. Metropolitan areas and coastal districts had more rapid population dynamics, while peripheral rural regions experienced more rapid changes towards aging. Population aging had a short-term impact on regional population structures in Greece, with possibly negative consequences for the ability of the country’s economy to recover from crisis.

Over the last decades there have been important methodological advances in measuring residential segregation, especially concerning spatial indices. After a discussion of the fundamental concepts and approaches some of the numerous indices are introduced. We focus in particular on the most known aspatial and spatial indices in the dimension of evenness namely segregation and dissimilarity indices. The contribution is based on data of the geographic distribution of selected foreign groups resident in the census enumeration areas that form the Local Labour Market Area (LLMA) of Rome. Data refer to the population censuses 2001 and 2011. Applying the indices to the LLMA of Rome serves as a test of the practical and potential usefulness of the proposed measures and their possible interpretation.

Animal ecology has devoted a great deal of effort to the study of the relations between the variance (V) and the average (M) of the density of a group of sub-populations (pi) belonging to the same territorial system, and thus, it has been possible to develop several ‘laws’. Among these laws, one of the best known is Taylor’s power law (TL), which provides that between V and M, there is a power law. Several studies have appeared on this topic only recently in the field of human demography, mainly those of Cohen and colleagues. This is quite surprising given the extreme importance of the population density indicator in population studies. This paper, for the first time, tests the relations between V and M at the world level by working on the sub-populations (pi) resident in each country belonging to five continents and following a long-term perspective (1950–2017). To estimate the unknown parameters of the relation we make use a simultaneous equation system (SUR). The results show that TL is verified in two out of five cases (Asia, and America), while in three cases (Africa, Europe and Oceania), a quadratic relationship shows better results.

The paper presents an original application of the recently proposed Red- Cap method of spatial clustering and regionalization on the FlorentineMetropolitan Area (FMA). Demographic indicators are used as the input of a spatial clustering and regionalization model in order to classify the FMA's municipalities into a number of demographically homogeneous as well as spatially contiguous zones. In the context of a gradual decentralization of governance activities we believe the FMA is a representative case of study and that the individuation of new spatial areas built considering both the demographic characteristics of the resident population and the spatial dimension of the territory where this population insists could become a useful tool for local governance. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013.