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The uncertainties during the return trajectory of vertical takeoff and vertical landing reusable launch vehicle weaken the ability of precision landing and make the return process more challenging. This paper is devoted to quantifying the probability uncertainty of return trajectory with uncertain parameters. The uncertainty model of return multi-flight-phase under the uncertainties of initial flight path angle, axial aerodynamic coefficient, and atmospheric density is established using the generalized polynomial chaos expansion method. By parameterizing random uncertainties and introducing random parameters into the uncertainty model, the uncertainty analysis problem of return trajectory is transformed into stochastic trajectory approximation problem. The coefficients of the polynomial basis function are solved by the stochastic collocation method. Then state solutions, statistical properties, and global sensitivity with Sobol index are established based on coefficients. The simulation results show the efficiency and accuracy of this method compared with the Monte Carlo method, the evolution process of main output parameters under random parameters, and relative importance for random parameters. Through the uncertainty analysis of the return trajectory, the robustness of return trajectory can be quantified, which is contributed to improving the safety, reliability, and robustness of recovery and landing mission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The epistemic uncertainties caused by insufficient knowledge of the atmosphere, aerodynamic coefficient, and entry state render the entry process challenging, as they not only result in the deviation of the preplanned trajectory, but also may lead to the nonsatisfaction of path constraints. Herein, a robust epistemic uncertainty optimization (REUO) method based on evidence is proposed to solve the Mars entry trajectory optimization problem under epistemic uncertainty. A two-loop nested robust optimization (RO) model is formulated, in which the outer-loop optimization searches the optimal control while the inner-loop optimization calculates the extremal trajectory performances within each focal element (FE) to evaluate the evidence level. To solve the path constraint violation problem under uncertainties, the constraint design based on limitation bounds is considered in the RO model. The polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is employed to obtain the approximate analytic function of the trajectory performance under uncertainties. Thereafter, the optimization based on ordinary stochastic entry dynamics in the inner loop is replaced by a simple parameter optimization of the analytic functions, which can be readily and rapidly solved. The REUO method is tested in a specific Mars entry mission. The simulation results show that the proposed method can identify the most robust solutions with the optimal trajectory performance under epistemic uncertainties. • Robust trajectory optimization model under epistemic uncertainty is formulated. • A robust epistemic uncertainty optimization method based on evidence is proposed. • Employment of nonintrusive PCE technique improves the optimization efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]