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Standard data analysis pipelines for digital PCR estimate the concentration of a target nucleic acid by digitizing the end-point fluorescence of the parallel micro-PCR reactions, using an automated hard threshold. While it is known that misclassification has a major impact on the concentration estimate and substantially reduces accuracy, the uncertainty of this classification is typically ignored. We introduce a model-based clustering method to estimate the probability that the target is present (absent) in a partition conditional on its observed fluorescence and the distributional shape in no-template control samples. This methodology acknowledges the inherent uncertainty of the classification and provides a natural measure of precision, both at individual partition level and at the level of the global concentration. We illustrate our method on genetically modified organism, inhibition, dynamic range, and mutation detection experiments. We show that our method provides concentration estimates of similar accuracy or better than the current standard, along with a more realistic measure of precision. The individual partition probabilities and diagnostic density plots further allow for some quality control. An R implementation of our method, called Umbrella, is available, providing a more objective and automated data analysis procedure for absolute dPCR quantification.

Background: Digital polymerase chain reaction (dPCR) is an increasingly popular technology for detecting and quantifying target nucleic acids. Its advertised strength is high precision absolute quantification without needing reference curves. The standard data analytic approach follows a seemingly straightforward theoretical framework but ignores sources of variation in the data generating process. These stem from both technical and biological factors, where we distinguish features that are 1) hard-wired in the equipment, 2) user-dependent and 3) provided by manufacturers but may be adapted by the user. The impact of the corresponding variance components on the accuracy and precision of target concentration estimators presented in the literature is studied through simulation., Results: We reveal how system-specific technical factors influence accuracy as well as precision of concentration estimates. We find that a well-chosen sample dilution level and modifiable settings such as the fluorescence cut-off for target copy detection have a substantial impact on reliability and can be adapted to the sample analysed in ways that matter. User-dependent technical variation, including pipette inaccuracy and specific sources of sample heterogeneity, leads to a steep increase in uncertainty of estimated concentrations. Users can discover this through replicate experiments and derived variance estimation. Finally, the detection performance can be improved by optimizing the fluorescence intensity cut point as suboptimal thresholds reduce the accuracy of concentration estimates considerably., Conclusions: Like any other technology, dPCR is subject to variation induced by natural perturbations, systematic settings as well as user-dependent protocols. Corresponding uncertainty may be controlled with an adapted experimental design. Our findings point to modifiable key sources of uncertainty that form an important starting point for the development of guidelines on dPCR design and data analysis with correct precision bounds. Besides clever choices of sample dilution levels, experiment-specific tuning of machine settings can greatly improve results. Well-chosen data-driven fluorescence intensity thresholds in particular result in major improvements in target presence detection. We call on manufacturers to provide sufficiently detailed output data that allows users to maximize the potential of the method in their setting and obtain high precision and accuracy for their experiments.