1. A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme to investigate the association between transmission rate of COVID-19 and meteorological factors on plains in China
- Author
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Jimmy Chi Hung Fung, Yacong Bo, Changqing Lin, David W. Yeung, Xiang Qian Lao, Yiqian Zeng, Alexis K.H. Lau, Jimmy W.M. Chan, Cui Guo, Yumiao Zhang, and Shakhaoat Hossain
- Subjects
China ,Imported scale ,Environmental Engineering ,Meteorological Concepts ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Correlation coefficient ,Pneumonia, Viral ,Population ,010501 environmental sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Population density ,Article ,law.invention ,Betacoronavirus ,Meteorology ,law ,Temperate climate ,Humans ,Environmental Chemistry ,Cities ,education ,Pandemics ,Waste Management and Disposal ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,education.field_of_study ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Temperature ,COVID-19 ,Outbreak ,Metropolitan area ,Pollution ,Coronavirus ,Geography ,Transmission (mechanics) ,Physical geography ,Coronavirus Infections - Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in Hubei province, China, has become a pandemic. However, data regarding the effects of meteorological factors on its transmission are limited and inconsistent. A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme was developed to investigate the association between the scaled transmission rate (STR) of COVID-19 and the meteorological parameters in 20 provinces/municipalities located on the plains in China. We obtained information on the scale of population migrated from Wuhan, the world epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak, into the study provinces/municipalities using mobile-phone positioning system and big data techniques. The highest STRs were found in densely populated metropolitan areas and in cold provinces located in north-eastern China. Population density had a non-linear relationship with disease spread (linearity index, 0.9). Among various meteorological factors, only temperature was significantly associated with the STR after controlling for the effect of population density. A negative and exponential relationship was identified between the transmission rate and the temperature (correlation coefficient, −0.56; 99% confidence level). The STR increased substantially as the temperature in north-eastern China decreased below 0 °C (the STR ranged from 3.5 to 12.3 when the temperature was between −9.41 °C and −13.87 °C), whilst the STR showed less temperature dependence in the study areas with temperate weather conditions (the STR was 1.21 ± 0.57 when the temperature was above 0 °C). Therefore, a higher population density was linearly whereas a lower temperature (, Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image, Highlights • A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme was developed for transmission rate. • Scale of population migration from Wuhan was incorporated. • Population density had a non-linear (linearity index, 0.9) impact on disease spread. • Transmission rate shows a negative and exponential temperature dependence. • COVID-19 mitigation in densely populated and cold regions will be a great challenge.
- Published
- 2020
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