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Modern and fossil pollen data are widely used in paleoenvironmental research to characterize past environmental changes in a given location. However, their discrete and discontinuous nature can limit the inferences that can be made from them. Deriving continuous spatial maps of the pollen presence from point-based datasets would enable more robust regional characterization of such past changes. To address this problem, we propose a comprehensive collection of European pollen presence maps including 194 pollen taxa derived from the interpolation of pollen data from the Eurasian Modern Pollen Database (EMPD v2) restricted to the Euro-Mediterranean Basin. To do so, we developed an automatic Kriging-based interpolation workflow to select an optimal geostatistical model describing the spatial variability for each taxon. The output of the interpolation model consists of a series of multivariate predictive maps of Europe at 25 km scale, showing the occurrence probability of pollen taxa, the predicted presence based on diverse probability thresholds, and the interpolation uncertainty for each taxon. Combined visual inspections of the maps and systematic cross-validation tests demonstrated that the ensemble of predictions is reliable even in data-scarce regions, with a relatively low uncertainty, and robust to complex and non-stationary pollen distributions. The maps, freely distributed as GeoTIFF files (10.5281/zenodo.10015695,), are proposed as a ready-to-use tool for spatial paleoenvironmental characterization. Since the interpolation model only uses the coordinates of the observation to spatialize the data, the model can also be employed with fossil pollen records (or other presence/absence indicators), thus enabling the spatial characterization of past changes, and possibly their subsequent use for quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern and fossil pollen data are widely used in paleoenvironmental research to characterise past environmental changes in a given location. However, their discrete and discontinuous nature can limit the inferences that can be made from them. In contrasts, deriving continuous spatial maps of the pollen presence from point-based datasets would enable more robust regional characterization of such past changes. To address this problem, we propose a comprehensive collection of European pollen presence maps including 194 pollen taxa derived from the interpolation of pollen data from the Eurasian Modern Pollen Database (EMPD v2) restricted to the Euro-Mediterranean Basin. To do so, we developed an automatic Kriging-based interpolation workflow to select an optimal geostatistical model describing the spatial variability for each taxon. The output of the interpolation model consists in a series of multivariate predictive maps of Europe at 25-km scale, showing the occurrence probability of pollen taxa, the predicted presence based on diverse probability thresholds, and the interpolation uncertainty for each taxon. Visual inspections of the maps and systematic cross-validation tests showed that the ensemble of predictions is reliable even in data-scarce regions, with a relatively low uncertainty, and robust to complex and non-stationary pollen distributions. The maps, freely distributed as GeoTIFF files, are proposed as a ready-to-use tool for spatial paleoenvironmental characterization. Since the interpolation model only uses the coordinates of the observation to spatialise the data, similar maps could also be derived for fossil pollen records, thus enabling the spatial characterization of past changes, and possibly, their subsequent use for quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we describe the LegacyClimate 1.0, a dataset of the reconstruction of mean July temperature (TJuly), mean annual temperature (Tann), and annual precipitation (Pann) from 2594 fossil pollen records from the Northern Hemisphere spanning the entire Holocene with some records reaching back to the Last Glacial. Two reconstruction methods, the Modern Analogue Technique (MAT) and Weighted-Averaging Partial-Least Squares regression (WA-PLS) reveal similar results regarding spatial and temporal patterns. To reduce the impact of precipitation on temperature reconstruction and vice versa, we also provide reconstructions using tailored modern pollen data limiting the range of the corresponding other climate variables. We assess the reliability of the reconstructions using information from the spatial distributions of the root-mean squared error of prediction and reconstruction significance tests. The dataset is beneficial for climate proxy synthesis studies and to evaluate the output of climate models and thus help to improve the models themselves. We provide our compilation of reconstructed TJuly, Tann, and Pann as open-access datasets at PANGAEA https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.930512; Herzschuh et al., 2021). R code for the reconstructions is provided at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5910989; Herzschuh et al., 2022), including harmonized open-access modern and fossil datasets used for the reconstructions, so that customized reconstructions can be easily established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene (~700 k.y.), temperature variability at low latitudes is often considered to have been negligible compared to changes in precipitation. However, a paucity of quantified temperature records makes this difficult to reliably assess. In this study, we used the Bayesian method CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware) to produce a 790,000 yr quantified temperature reconstruction from a marine pollen record from southeast Africa. The results reveal a strong similarity between temperature variability in subtropical Africa and global ice volume and CO2 concentrations, indicating that temperature in the region was not controlled by local insolation, but followed global trends at these time scales, with an amplitude of ~4 °C between glacial minima and interglacial maxima. The data also enabled us to make an assessment of the impact of temperature change on pollen diversity, with results showing there is no link between glacial-age temperatures/CO2 and a loss of diversity in this record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eurasian (née European) Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) was established in 2013 to provide a public database of high-quality modern pollen surface samples to help support studies of past climate, land cover, and land use using fossil pollen. The EMPD is part of, and complementary to, the European Pollen Database (EPD) which contains data on fossil pollen found in Late Quaternary sedimentary archives throughout the Eurasian region. The EPD is in turn part of the rapidly growing Neotoma database, which is now the primary home for global palaeoecological data. This paper describes version 2 of the EMPD in which the number of samples held in the database has been increased by 60 % from 4826 to 8134. Much of the improvement in data coverage has come from northern Asia, and the database has consequently been renamed the Eurasian Modern Pollen Database to reflect this geographical enlargement. The EMPD can be viewed online using a dedicated map-based viewer at https://empd2.github.io and downloaded in a variety of file formats at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.909130 (Chevalier et al., 2019). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: The southern Cape is a particularly dynamic region of South Africa in terms of climate change as it is influenced by both temperate and tropical circulation systems. This paper presents pollen and microcharcoal data generated from a sediment core extracted from the coastal lake Eilandvlei spanning the last ∼8900 years. With an average sample resolution of 57 years, this record represents the highest resolution record of Holocene vegetation change from the region. The data indicate that cool, seasonal and moderately dry conditions characterized the Wilderness Embayment from ∼8900 to 8000 cal a  BP. Afrotemperate forests expanded from ∼8000 cal a  BP until 4700 cal a  BP. This humid period is followed by indications of more arid and seasonal conditions until 3500 cal a  BP. A long‐term increase in forest taxa suggests steadily increasing moisture availability across the late Holocene. Strong affinities are noted with records from more tropical regions of South Africa, suggesting that tropical systems are of importance in maintaining higher moisture availability in the region. An important mechanism of climate change is the Agulhas Current, which transmits what appears to be a localized signal of tropical variability to the southern Cape coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late Quaternary climate variability in the southern African subtropics is still only poorly resolved, with significant complexity and apparent contradictions in the regional dataset. To more effectively interpret and synthesize key regional records, we reanalysed the data from 13 pollen sequences from the summer rainfall zone of South Africa spanning the last 45,000 years, obtaining directly comparable quantitative reconstructions of mean annual temperature and summer rainfall. Temperature reconstructions from across the region provide consistent results, with all sites reflecting trends observed in southwest Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures in the adjacent Mozambique Channel. Precipitation reconstructions are more heterogeneous, with two distinct subregions being identified. In the northeast, long-term trends in precipitation are determined by sea-surface and continental temperature trends, revealing a positive relationship between temperature and rainfall. This long-term pattern appears to be primarily driven by high northern latitude mechanisms, with direct local insolation being subordinate. Their relative impact reversed during terminal glacial period/early Holocene, at which time direct insolation forcing became the main driver of rainfall variability. Further south, in central South Africa, precipitation variability appears also to be influenced by the latitudinal position of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which combine with tropical flow to create tropical-temperate trough, advecting moisture into the interior. In this region, periods of maximum precipitation coincide with periods of elevated SSTs and equatorward expansions of the westerly storm track. This study allows for a fully constrained understanding of climate dynamics along the eastern African margin for the last 45,000 years, linking dynamics to drivers and describing how the climate systems evolved across the last glacial–interglacial transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fossil pollen records are well-established indicators of past vegetation changes. The prevalence of pollen across environmental settings including lakes, wetlands, and marine sediments, has made palynology one of the most ubiquitous and valuable tools for studying past environmental and climatic change globally for decades. A complementary research focus has been the development of statistical techniques to derive quantitative estimates of climatic conditions from pollen assemblages. This paper reviews the most commonly used statistical techniques and their rationale and seeks to provide a resource to facilitate their inclusion in more palaeoclimatic research. To this end, we first address the fundamental aspects of fossil pollen data that should be considered when undertaking pollen-based climate reconstructions. We then introduce the range of techniques currently available, the history of their development, and the situations in which they can be best employed. We review the literature on how to define robust calibration datasets, produce high-quality reconstructions, and evaluate climate reconstructions, and suggest methods and products that could be developed to facilitate accessibility and global usability. To continue to foster the development and inclusion of pollen climate reconstruction methods, we promote the development of reporting standards. When established, such standards should 1) enable broader application of climate reconstruction techniques, especially in regions where such methods are currently underused, and 2) enable the evaluation and reproduction of individual reconstructions, structuring them for the evolving open-science era, and optimising the use of fossil pollen data as a vital means for the study of past environmental and climatic variability. We also strongly encourage developers and users of palaeoclimate reconstruction methodologies to make associated programming code publicly available, which will further help disseminate these techniques to interested communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A high resolution, quantitative late Miocene EASM rainfall record was obtained. • The EASM declined from ∼ 10.8 Ma to 7.6 Ma and strengthened from ∼ 7.6 Ma to 6.3 Ma. • Global cooling and paleotopography play key roles in long-term late Miocene EASM evolution. • Late Miocene EASM evolution was dominated by eccentricity forcing in NE TP. Understanding how the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) evolves at different time scales affords a valuable opportunity to reveal the interactions between the hydrosphere, land, oceans and atmosphere. However, the pre-Quaternary evolutionary history and the driving forces that controlled its variability in response to different boundary conditions remain enigmatic. Here, we focus on the late Miocene (∼10.8 to 6.3 Ma) – a period of profound climatic and topographic changes in Asia – and present a quantitative reconstruction of EASM precipitation using the probabilistic CREST (Climate Reconstruction Software) method with a high temporal resolution pollen record from the Tianshui Basin in NE Tibetan Plateau (TP). Our new EASM precipitation record shows a slowly decreasing long-term trend during the period of ∼ 10.8–7.6 Ma, which was followed by a strengthening period from ∼ 7.6 to 6.3 Ma with a large amplitude of precipitation variability. We argue the decrease and increase periods of EASM precipitation were primarily response to late Miocene global cooling and TP uplift after ∼ 8 Ma, respectively. These results are supported by existing climate model simulations, wherein both global climate and paleotopography play key roles in regulating the long-term evolution of late Miocene EASM. On orbital time scales, the precipitation time series exhibit a dominant ∼ 410 kyr eccentricity periodicity, with lower (higher) values intervals corresponding to eccentricity minima (maximum). The synchronous phase of the precipitation and eccentricity records indicate that the eccentricity exerts a dominant influence on the EASM precipitation cycles via its modulation of the precessional amplitude, and the period expansion and contraction of Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) also probably play an important role during that time. Our quantitative late Miocene EASM precipitation records provide new insight into late Miocene EASM precipitation evolution and its relation with global climate, paleotopography, and cryosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the first continuous pollen record from the southern Namib Desert spanning the last 50,000 years. Obtained from rock hyrax middens found near the town of Pella, South Africa, these data are used to reconstruct vegetation change and quantitative estimates of temperature and aridity. Results indicate that the last glacial period was characterised by increased water availability at the site relative to the Holocene. Changes in temperature and potential evapotranspiration appear to have played a significant role in determining the hydrologic balance. The record can be considered in two sections: 1) the last glacial period, when low temperatures favoured the development of more mesic Nama-Karoo vegetation at the site, with periods of increased humidity concurrent with increased coastal upwelling, both responding to lower global/regional temperatures; and 2) the Holocene, during which time high temperatures and potential evapotranspiration resulted in increased aridity and an expansion of the Desert Biome. During this latter period, increases in upwelling intensity created drier conditions at the site. Considered in the context of discussions of forcing mechanisms of regional climate change and environmental dynamics, the results from Pella stand in clear contrast with many inferences of terrestrial environmental change derived from regional marine records. Observations of a strong precessional signal and interpretations of increased humidity during phases of high local summer insolation in the marine records are not consistent with the data from Pella. Similarly, while high percentages of Restionaceae pollen has been observed in marine sediments during the last glacial period, they do not exceed 1% of the assemblage from Pella, indicating that no significant expansion of the Fynbos Biome has occurred during the last 50,000 years. These findings pose interesting questions regarding the nature of environmental change in southwestern Africa, and the significance of the diverse records that have been obtained from the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is vital to hydrology, ecology and societal activities in the densely populated region of East Asia. However, its long-term evolution history and driving forces during the relatively warm Miocene remain unclear, even conflicting in some intervals. Here, we present a new, and quantitative record of EASM precipitation during Miocene using the Bayesian approach of Climate Reconstruction Software (CREST) based on pollen flora from the Tianshui Basin located on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau (TP). The results demonstrate that a strong and relatively stable EASM precipitation period occurred during the Neogene in northern China at ~17.1–13.6 Ma, which was followed by a strong and gradual decreasing period between ~13.6 and 7.4 Ma. This trend was abruptly stopped at ~7.4 Ma with the beginning of a period of large amplitude precipitation increase. The comparison analysis reveals that the gradual decrease of EASM precipitation during the period of ~17.1–7.4 Ma was primarily controlled by the global cooling, whereas the significant increase period after ~7.4 Ma was mainly related to the late Miocene uplift of the TP, supporting climate model simulations, in which both the global temperature and palaeogeography play important roles in regulating the long-term evolution of EASM precipitation. • A quantitative record of Miocene EASM from northern China was obtained. • The EASM stepwise decreased from ~17.1 Ma to 7.4 Ma and increased after ~7.4 Ma. • Middle Miocene EASM evolution is mainly regulating by temperature changes. • Palaeogeography play a key role in controlling the evolution of late Miocene EASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Established in 2011, the Eurasian Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) is a standardized, fully documented and quality-controlled dataset of over 8000 modern pollen samples which can be openly accessed, and to which scientists can also contribute and help maintain. The database has recently been upgraded to include an intuitive client-based JavaScript web-interface hosted on the version control system Github, allowing data and metadata to be accessed and viewed using a clickable map. We present how we manage the FAIR principles, such as well-documented access and handling of data and metadata using the free Github services for open source development, as well as other critical points for open research data, such as data accreditation and referencing. Our community-based framework allows automated and transparent quality checks through continuous integration, fast and intuitive access to the data, as well as transparency for data contributors and users concerning changes and bugs in the EMPD. Furthermore, it allows a stable and long-lasting access to the web interface (and the data) without any funding requirements for servers or the risk of security holes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pollen, spores, and microscopic charcoal from a sediment core from Lake Ngami, in the Middle Kalahari, reflect paleovegetation and paleoclimatic conditions over the last 16,600 cal years BP. The location of Lake Ngami allows for the receipt of moisture sourced from the Indian and/or Atlantic oceans, which may have influenced local rainfall or long distance water transport via the Okavango system. We interpret results of statistical analyses of the pollen data as showing a complex, dynamic system wherein variability in tropical convective systems and local forcing mechanisms influence hydrological changes. Our reconstructions show three primary phases in the regional precipitation regime: 1) an early period of high but fluctuating summer rainfall under relatively cool conditions from ∼16,600–12,500 cal BP, with reduced tree to herb and shrub ratio; 2) an episode of significantly reduced rainfall centered around c. 11,400 cal BP, characterized by an increase in xeric Asteraceae pollen, but persistent aquatic elements, suggesting less rainfall but cool conditions and lower evaporation that maintained water in the basin; and 3) a longer phase of high, but fluctuating rainfall from ∼9000 cal BP to present with more woody savanna vegetation ( Vachellia ( Acacia ) and Combretaceae). We propose a model to relate these changes to increased Indian Ocean-sourced moisture in the late Pleistocene due to a southerly position of the African rain belt, a northerly contraction of tropical systems that immediately followed the Younger Dryas, and a subsequent dominance of local insolation forcing, modulated by changes in the SE Atlantic basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amazon forest is increasingly vulnerable to dieback and encroachment of grasslands and agricultural fields. Threats to these forested ecosystems include drying, deforestation, and fire, but feedbacks among these make it difficult to determine their relative importance. Here, we reconstruct the central and western Amazon tree cover response to aridity and fire in the mid-Holocene—a time of less intensive human land use and markedly drier conditions than today—to assess the resilience of tree cover to drying and the strength of vegetation-climate feedbacks. We use pollen, charcoal, and speleothem oxygen isotope proxy data to show that Amazon tree cover in the mid-Holocene was resilient to drying in excess of the driest bias-corrected future precipitation projections. Experiments with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) suggest tree cover resilience may be owed to weak feedbacks that act to amplify tree cover loss with drying. We also compare these results to observational data and find that, under limited human interference, modern tree cover is likely similarly resilient to mid-Holocene levels of aridification. Our results suggest human-driven fire and deforestation likely pose a greater threat to the future of Amazon ecosystems than drying alone. • Quantifies mid-Holocene Amazon precipitation to compare past and present climate-vegetation relationships. • High tree cover and forest vegetation persists despite inferred ~1000 mm/yr decline in mid-Holocene precipitation. • Proxy data and vegetation modeling demonstrate tree cover resilience to drying below the seasonal water deficit threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]