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This edited volume inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. The volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. Publisher's Website, Dieser Sammelband untersucht den Einsatz von Vorhersagen an der Schnittstelle zwischen Politik und Wissenschaft und reflektiert über die Auswirkungen zukunftsorientierter Politikgestaltung in verschiedenen Bereichen. Im ersten Teil des Buches werden verschiedene akademische Perspektiven und Beiträge zur zukunftsorientierten Politikgestaltung diskutiert. Im zweiten Teil wird die Rolle zukünftigen Wissens bei der Entscheidungsfindung in verschiedenen empirischen Bereichen wie Klima, Gesundheit, Finanzen, Bio- und Atomwaffen, Bürgerkrieg und Kriminalität untersucht. Es wird analysiert, wie Vorhersagen in die öffentliche Politik und Regierungsführung integriert werden und wie wiederum die Regierungsstrukturen das Generieren von Wissen über die Zukunft beeinflussen. Der Sammelband trägt zu einem besseren Verständnis der komplexen Wechselwirkungen und Rückkopplungsschleifen zwischen den Prozessen der Schaffung von Wissen über die Zukunft und der Anwendung dieses Wissens in Politik und Verwaltung bei., CSS Studies in Security and International Relations, ISBN:9781003022428

Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2016 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:978-3-905696-56-1

Wie hat sich der Schweizer Sicherheitsbereich seit Ende des Kalten Krieges entwickelt? Wer arbeitet heute mit wem zu welchen Gefahren? Basierend auf einer umfassenden und einzigartigen Datenerhebung kartiert dieser Beitrag die Entwicklung des gesamtschweizerischen Sicherheitsbereichs. Die Darstellung der praktischen Arbeitsteilungen, inneren und äusseren Kooperationen, beruflichen Profile und Werdegänge schafft einen analytisch differenzierten und empirisch fundierten Beitrag zu anhaltenden Diskussionen über die landesweite sicherheitspolitische Steuerung., Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2016 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:978-3-905696-56-1

Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2016 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:978-3-905696-56-1

Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2011 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:3-905696-35-5

CSS Analysen zur Sicherheitspolitik, 177, ISSN:2296-0236

CSS Analyses in Security Policy, 177, ISSN:2296-0244

Zürcher Beiträge zur Sicherheitspolitik und Konfliktforschung, 43, ISSN:1423-3894, ISBN:3-905641-52-6

Zürcher Beiträge zur Sicherheitspolitik und Konfliktforschung, 36, ISSN:1423-3894, ISBN:3-905641-43-7

Zürcher Beiträge zur Sicherheitspolitik und Konfliktforschung, 35, ISSN:1423-3894, ISBN:3-905641-38-0

Gated communities in Bogotá house 2.7 million people, or almost 40% of all households. Today, all socioeconomic groups in Bogotá find a home behind gates and walls, and 20% of the urban poor live in gated communities. With the rise of the gated community in Latin America and worldwide, a new type of public space has been emerging in recent decades: streets bordered by walls, fences, and the occasional gate, formed when two gated communities face each other. It is an urgent matter for urban studies and urban planning to understand how these streets, formed when two gated communities meet, can still fulfil the functions of a locus of democracy. With this research, I aim to provide a better understanding of the implications of gated communities for non-exclusionary access and security for all users in the streets outside the gates and thereby on the very democratic character of public space. As this is an interdisciplinary research project dealing with complex and multidimensional public spaces dominated by walls and fences, I approach this issue from various perspectives and through different disciplinary, methodological and theoretical approaches. First, I speak to gated community literature, where I identify several research gaps: the imprecision of the concept of contemporary gated communities, the understudied spaces outside the gates and the rarely studied users in these spaces, including non-residents. I then draw on literature on the relationship between the built environment and security, with a special focus on the role of the passerby in these debates. I finally speak to public space literature with a focus on exclusion and democratic functions of public space. This dissertation consists of four articles. In article 1, I create a novel typology focusing on the spatial dimension of the gated community, portraying it as an integral part of the urban realm rather than an isolated island. I present five distinctive types of gated communities in Bogotá, varying widely in how they shape security and street activity in the surrounding public spaces. In article 2, my focus lies in the implications of gated communities on exclusion mechanisms and security in public space. I show that in these spaces between gated communities, the passerby is perceived as a threat to residents and hence not welcomed, making the streets outside of exclusive enclaves also exclusive. Article 3 (co-authored) is motivated by the reciprocal relationship between gated communities and security. The most dominant reason for the rise of gated communities is insecurity. While current research remains inconclusive on whether gated communities do, in fact, increase security for their residents, we pose a different question: Do gated communities with their walls, fences, and the occasional gate create insecure spaces outside the gates? We find that gated communities are consistently associated with public space crime in the adjacent streets. In article 4 (co-authored), we suggest that the debate around urban security would benefit from reflexive perspectives on security, understanding security as a negotiation of inclusion and exclusion. These results suggest that gated communities redistribute access and security in adjacent streets to the benefit of a clearly defined user group, the gated community residents, at the cost of non-exclusionary access and the security of the passerby in public spaces. Thus, the individual decision to live behind fences threatens the collective interest of society to live in inclusive, secure and democratic cities. My research offers a first step towards a more precise discussion of an evolving phenomenon, the gated community that today houses not just the elites but also the urban poor. I shed light on the implications of this housing model on the immediate surroundings, outlining an urgent challenge for academia and policymaking. Finally, I contribute to literature on the built environment and its relation with security by combining perspectives from environmental criminology, urban studies, reflexive security studies and law in order to create a more comprehensive approach to the issue. This is a transdisciplinary research project, with a constant dialogue with actors in the field informing the research process. Based on these parallel and intertwined processes, I provide policy recommendations for cities, aiming at mitigating the negative externalities of gated communities.

For almost seven decades, the government of the United States has been pursuing preeminent military power relative to all other states within the international system. This dissertation investigates why American leaders sought such capabilities. My argument is that certain structural characteristics of the American polity, of the international system, and of military technology produced strong incentives for US leaders to favor military primacy. I propose that the democratic and capitalist nature of the American political system, the relative size and productivity of the US economy, the anarchic nature of international affairs, and the emergence of nuclear weapons and modern military machinery are the structural features which push US leaders towards acquiring preeminent force. Empirically, I offer robust evidence that, both at the beginning and at the end of the Cold War, my mechanism played a pivotal role in creating the material constraints that defined US leaders’ choices. My evaluation of the decision-making processes within both the Harry S. Truman and the George H. W. Bush Administrations is primarily based upon thousands of declassified archival sources.

CSS Studies

Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2012 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:978-3-905696-38-7

Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2012 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:978-3-905696-38-7

Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2012 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:978-3-905696-38-7

Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2011 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:3-905696-35-5

Bulletin zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISSN:1024-0608, Bulletin 2011 zur schweizerischen Sicherheitspolitik, ISBN:3-905696-35-5

Zürcher Beiträge zur Sicherheitspolitik, 83, ISSN:1662-3711, ISSN:1423-3894, ISBN:3-905696-33-9

In this year's final OSINT Report Florian Schaurer and Jan Störger examine the prevalent classification and safeguarding procedures in place for sensitive national security information. They provide a synopsis of definitions, and cast light on the complex interplay between officially required secrecy and publicly desired transparency. The report also addresses the implications of overclassification on the one hand, and authorized or unauthorized disclosures (‘leaks’) of classified information on the other, raising awareness in the interest of more balanced governmental information security and sharing., OSINT Report, 2010 (4)