1. CONFIDENCE IN BELIEFS AND RATIONAL DECISION MAKING
- Author
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Brian Hill, HEC Paris - Recherche - Hors Laboratoire, Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC Paris), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC (GREGH), Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-14-CE29-0003,DUSUCA,La Prise de Décision et les Changements de Croyances en situation d'Incertitude Sévère: Une Approche basée sur la Confiance(2014), and HEC Research Paper Series
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Decision Under Uncertainty ,Policy making ,Bayesian probability ,Confidence ,Rationality ,0603 philosophy, ethics and religion ,JEL: H - Public Economics/H.H0 - General/H.H0.H00 - General ,Rational belief ,Rational planning model ,0502 economics and business ,Economics ,sort ,050207 economics ,Positive economics ,050205 econometrics ,JEL: D - Microeconomics/D.D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty/D.D8.D80 - General ,05 social sciences ,[SHS.PHIL]Humanities and Social Sciences/Philosophy ,JEL: D - Microeconomics/D.D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty/D.D8.D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty ,06 humanities and the arts ,[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance ,16. Peace & justice ,Decision maker ,Philosophy ,Belief ,060302 philosophy ,[SHS.GESTION]Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration ,Normative - Abstract
The standard, Bayesian account of rational belief and decision is often argued to be unable to cope properly with severe uncertainty, of the sort ubiquitous in some areas of policy making. This paper tackles the question of what should replace it as a guide for rational decision making. It defends a recent proposal, which reserves a role for the decision maker’s confidence in beliefs. Beyond being able to cope with severe uncertainty, the account has strong normative credentials on the main fronts typically evoked as relevant for rational belief and decision. It fares particularly well, we argue, in comparison to other prominent non-Bayesian models in the literature.
- Published
- 2018