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While image analysis of chest computed tomography (CT) for COVID-19 diagnosis has been intensively studied, little work has been performed for image-based patient outcome prediction. Management of high-risk patients with early intervention is a key to lower the fatality rate of COVID-19 pneumonia, as a majority of patients recover naturally. Therefore, an accurate prediction of disease progression with baseline imaging at the time of the initial presentation can help in patient management. In lieu of only size and volume information of pulmonary abnormalities and features through deep learning based image segmentation, here we combine radiomics of lung opacities and non-imaging features from demographic data, vital signs, and laboratory findings to predict need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. To our knowledge, this is the first study that uses holistic information of a patient including both imaging and non-imaging data for outcome prediction. The proposed methods were thoroughly evaluated on datasets separately collected from three hospitals, one in the United States, one in Iran, and another in Italy, with a total 295 patients with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay positive COVID-19 pneumonia. Our experimental results demonstrate that adding non-imaging features can significantly improve the performance of prediction to achieve AUC up to 0.884 and sensitivity as high as 96.1%, which can be valuable to provide clinical decision support in managing COVID-19 patients. Our methods may also be applied to other lung diseases including but not limited to community acquired pneumonia. The source code of our work is available at https://github.com/DIAL-RPI/COVID19-ICUPrediction., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has upended the world with over 6.6 million infections and over 391,000 deaths worldwide. Reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay is the preferred method of diagnosis of COVID-19 infection. Yet, chest CT is often used in patients with known or suspected COVID-19 due to regional preferences, lack of availability of PCR assays, and false-negative PCR assays, as well as for monitoring of disease progression, complications, and treatment response. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) organized a webinar to discuss CT practice and protocol optimization from a radiation protection perspective on April 9, 2020, and surveyed participants from five continents. We review important aspects of CT in COVID-19 infection from the justification of its use to specific scan protocols for optimizing radiation dose and diagnostic information.Key Points• Chest CT provides useful information in patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia.• When indicated, chest CT in most patients with COVID-19 pneumonia must be performed with non-contrast, low-dose protocol.• Although chest CT has high sensitivity for diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia, CT findings are non-specific and overlap with other viral infections including influenza and H1N1.

The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has challenged many healthcare systems around the world. While most of the current understanding of the clinical features of COVID-19 is derived from Chinese studies, there is a relative paucity of reports from the remaining global health community. In this study, we analyze the clinical and radiologic factors that correlate with mortality odds in COVID-19 positive patients from a tertiary care center in Tehran, Iran. A retrospective cohort study of 90 patients with reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positive COVID-19 infection was conducted, analyzing demographics, co-morbidities, presenting symptoms, vital signs, laboratory values, chest radiograph findings, and chest CT features based on mortality. Chest radiograph was assessed using the Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) scoring system. Chest CTs were assessed according to the opacification pattern, distribution, and standardized severity score. Initial and follow-up Chest CTs were compared if available. Multiple logistic regression was used to generate a prediction model for mortality. The 90 patients included 59 men and 31 women (59.4 ± 16.6 years), including 21 deceased and 69 surviving patients. Among clinical features, advanced age (p = 0.02), low oxygenation saturation (p<0.001), leukocytosis (p = 0.02), low lymphocyte fraction (p = 0.03), and low platelet count (p = 0.048) were associated with increased mortality. High RALE score on initial chest radiograph (p = 0.002), presence of pleural effusions on initial CT chest (p = 0.005), development of pleural effusions on follow-up CT chest (p = 0.04), and worsening lung severity score on follow-up CT Chest (p = 0.03) were associated with mortality. A two-factor logistic model using patient age and oxygen saturation was created, which demonstrates 89% accuracy and area under the ROC curve of 0.86 (p<0.0001). Specific demographic, clinical, and imaging features are associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 infections. Attention to these features can help optimize patient management., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Purpose: This study aimed to assess if computed tomography (CT) radiomics can predict the severity and outcome of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia., Methods: This institutional ethical board-approved study included 92 patients (mean age, 59 ± 17 years; 57 men, 35 women) with positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay for COVID-19 infection who underwent noncontrast chest CT. Two radiologists evaluated all chest CT examinations and recorded opacity type, distribution, and extent of lobar involvement. Information on symptom duration before hospital admission, the period of hospital admission, presence of comorbid conditions, laboratory data, and outcomes (recovery or death) was obtained from the medical records. The entire lung volume was segmented on thin-section Digital Imaging and Communication in Medicine images to derive whole-lung radiomics. Data were analyzed using multiple logistic regression with receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (AUC) as the output., Results: Computed tomography radiomics (AUC, 0.99) outperformed clinical variables (AUC, 0.89) for prediction of the extent of pulmonary opacities related to COVID-19 pneumonia. Type of pulmonary opacities could be predicted with CT radiomics (AUC, 0.77) but not with clinical or laboratory data (AUC, <0.56; P > 0.05). Prediction of patient outcome with radiomics (AUC, 0.85) improved to an AUC of 0.90 with the addition of clinical variables (patient age and duration of presenting symptoms before admission). Among clinical variables, the combination of peripheral capillary oxygen saturation on hospital admission, duration of symptoms, platelet counts, and patient age provided an AUC of 0.81 for predicting patient outcomes., Conclusions: Radiomics from noncontrast CT reliably predict disease severity (AUC, 0.99) and outcome (AUC, 0.85) in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.