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Previous studies showed that satellite‐derived estimates of chlorophyll a in coastal polynyas over the Antarctic continental shelf are correlated with the basal melt rate of adjacent ice shelves. A 5‐km resolution ocean/sea ice/ice shelf model of the Southern Ocean is used to examine mechanisms that supply the limiting micronutrient iron to Antarctic continental shelf surface waters. Four sources of dissolved iron are simulated with independent tracers, assumptions about the source iron concentration for each tracer, and an idealized summer biological uptake. Iron from ice shelf melt provides about 6% of the total dissolved iron in surface waters. The contribution from deep sources of iron on the shelf (sediments and Circumpolar Deep Water) is much larger at 71%. The relative contribution of dissolved iron supply from basal melt driven overturning circulation within ice shelf cavities is heterogeneous around Antarctica, but at some locations, such as the Amundsen Sea, it is the primary mechanism for transporting deep dissolved iron to the surface. Correlations between satellite chlorophyll a in coastal polynyas around Antarctica and simulated dissolved iron confirm the previous suggestion that productivity of the polynyas is linked to the basal melt of adjacent ice shelves. This correlation is the result of upward advection or mixing of iron‐rich deep waters due to circulation changes driven by ice shelf melt, rather than a direct influence of iron released from melting ice shelves. This dependence highlights the potential vulnerability of coastal Antarctic ecosystems to changes in ice shelf basal melt rates. Plain Language Summary Phytoplankton in Antarctic coastal waters grow more rapidly relative to waters farther offshore. This growth is limited by the availability of light for photosynthesis and the supply of the micronutrient dissolved iron. Earlier studies suggest that satellite‐based estimates of phytoplankton growth are related to the melting of nearby floating portions (called ice shelves) of the Antarctic ice sheet. In this study, a computer model, which includes melting of ice shelves, is used to examine the different sources of dissolved iron that supply the well‐lit summer surface waters around Antarctica. Dissolved iron is available in the floating ice shelves, and the direct supply of this iron to coastal waters by melting of the bottom of the ice shelf is important for enhancing biological production. However, melting creates less dense water at the ice shelf base that rises and brings deep waters that contain dissolved iron towards the surface in front of the ice shelf. The model shows that this input provides a larger source of dissolved iron to the open surface waters in many coastal regions than does direct supply from the ice shelf meltwater. This implies that phytoplankton growth may be vulnerable to changes in ice shelf basal melt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This Discussant’s Report provides a summary of the discussions that followed presentation of the approaches and ideas described in . The discussions, which addressed aspects of conceptual understanding and parameterization that are relevant to development of ecosystem models capable of emergent behavior at a range of scales, the benefits of functional group modeling, and some of the limitations of this approach, provide insights that are relevant to setting directions for future research efforts. One important point emerging from the discussions was that reconciling the requirements of simplicity versus complexity with the desire to obtain predictive capability is an important area where biogeochemical and ecosystem models can be improved. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The West Antarctic Peninsula region is an important source of Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba ) in the Southern Ocean. From 1980-2004 abundance and concentration of phytoplankton and zooplankton, krill reproductive and recruitment success and seasonal sea ice extent here were significantly correlated with the atmospheric Southern Oscillation Index and exhibited three- to five-year frequencies characteristic of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. This linkage was associated with movements of the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front and Boundary, a changing influence of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Weddell Sea waters, and eastward versus westward flow and mixing processes that are consistent with forcing by the Antarctic Dipole high-latitude climate mode. Identification of hydrographic processes underlying ecosystem variability presented here were derived primarily from multi-disciplinary data collected during 1990-2004, a period with relatively stable year-to-year sea ice conditions. These results differ from the overwhelming importance of seasonal sea ice development previously established using 1980-1996 data, a period marked by a major decrease in sea ice from the Antarctic Peninsula region in the late 1980s. These newer results reveal the more subtle consequences of ENSO variability on biological responses. They highlight the necessity of internally consistent long-term multidisciplinary datasets for understanding ecosystem variability and ultimately for establishing well-founded ecosystem management. Furthermore, natural environmental variability associated with interannual- and decadal-scale changes in ENSO forcing must be considered when assessing impacts of climate warming in the Antarctic Peninsula-Weddell Sea region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A time-dependent, size-structured, physiologically based krill growth model was used in conjunction with a circulation model to test the hypothesis that Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) populations at South Georgia are sustained by import of individuals from upstream regions. Surface phytoplankton concentrations along the simulated drifter trajectories were extracted from historical Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) measurements and sea ice biota concentrations were calculated from sea ice concentration and extent extracted along drifter trajectories from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager measurements. As additional food sources, a time series of heterotrophic food was constructed from historical data, and time series of detritus concentrations were calculated using phytoplankton concentrations extracted from CZCS measurements together with measured particulate organic carbon to chlorophyll a ratios. These food resources along specified drifter trajectories were then input to the krill growth model to determine the size and viability of krill during transport from the source region to South Georgia. The krill growth model simulations showed that no single food source can support continuous growth of krill during the 58–306 days needed for transport to South Georgia. However, under the current assumptions results indicate that combinations of food sources during the transport time enhanced krill survival, with heterotrophic food and detritus being particularly important during periods of low phytoplankton concentrations. The growth model simulations also showed that larval and juvenile krill originating along the western Antarctic Peninsula can grow to (14–36mm) and (26–45mm) age and size classes observed at South Georgia during the time needed for transport to this region. Krill originating in the Weddell Sea need 20 months for transport, which allows retention in a potentially high food environment, provided by sea ice, for almost 1 year. Krill then complete transport to South Georgia in the following year and larval and juvenile krill grow to (26–45mm) and (35–60mm) age and size classes during transport. The results of this study show that the successful transport of krill to South Georgia depends on a multitude of factors, such as the location of the spawning area and timing of spawning, food concentrations during transport, predation, and variations in the location of the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF) and in sea ice extent. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A model of the lower trophic levels that consists of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations was developed to investigate the time-dependent behavior of doliolid populations associated with upwelling features on the outer southeastern US continental shelf. Model equations describe the interactions of doliolids with two phytoplankton size fractions, five copepod developmental states and detrital pool. Additional equations describe nitrate and ammonia. Model dynamics are based primarily upon data obtained from field and laboratory experiments for southeastern US continental shelf plankton populations. Variations on a reference simulation, which represents average upwelling conditions without doliolids, were carried out to determine the effect of inclusion of doliolids, temperature and nutrient variations, and variations in ambient food concentrations on the basic plankton community structure. These simulations provide a measure of the role of environmental versus biological interactions in structuring the planktonic food web on the southeastern US continental shelf. Simulations show that he copepod population is significantly reduce when doliolids are present. This happens primarily as a result of direct predation of the doliolids on copepod eggs and juveniles as opposed to an increase in competition for phytoplankton, the primary food source. Additional simulations show that the cooler temperatures associated with the newly upwelled water temporarily decrease the growth rates of doliolids and copepods, bestowing an event greater advantage on the rapidly reproducing doliolids. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The transplanting of oysters from one ground to another is a common practice in the oyster industry. In Delaware Bay, for instance, oysters are typically transplanted from upper-bay low-salinity seed beds onto lower-bay leased grounds for growth and conditioning before market. The higher salinity on the leased grounds, however, also favours higher losses to predation and disease. A coupled oyster- Perkinsus marinus-predator model was used to investigate how varying the timing of transplant affects the ultimate yield of Eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica, in Delaware Bay. Simulations were run in which oysters were moved from seed beds to leased grounds in November, January, March, April and May. The number of market-size (≥ 76 mm) adults available for harvest in the following July to November was compared for populations undergoing mortality from predation (crabs, oyster drills) and/or disease ( Perkinsus marinus). In all simulations, the abundance of market-size oysters declined between July and November. However, transplanting oysters in November resulted in the largest yield of market-size oysters for all harvest times; transplanting in May resulted in the smallest yield. The autumn transplant allows oysters to benefit from the larger spring phytoplankton bloom over the leased grounds in the lower estuary. The effect of varying the season of transplant was most noticeable if oysters were harvested early (July or August). In all simulations, transplanting resulted in a higher abundance of market-size oysters than direct harvest from the seed beds. Direct harvest would rarely be advantageous if the cost of transplant were insignificant and the relative rates of mortality were as stipulated. However, a May transplant is only moderately better than a direct harvest and the economic benefits of either option are likely to be determined by the cost of transplanting and the mortality associated with the process. In the same vein, the decision as to when to harvest relies on balancing the increased price obtained for oysters in the autumn with the increased loss owing to predation and disease. Awaiting an autumn harvest is clearly much riskier if the principal source of mortality is disease rather than predation, because disease mortality is concentrated on the market-size oysters and is greatest in the autumn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A one-dimensional numerical model that includes the complex life cycle of Phaeocystis antarctica , diatom growth, dissolved iron (dFe) and irradiance controls, and the taxa's response to changes in these variables is used to evaluate the role of different iron sources in supporting phytoplankton blooms in the Ross Sea. Simulations indicate that sea ice melt accounts for 20% of total dFe inputs during low light conditions early in the growing season (late November-early December), which enhances blooms of P. antarctica in early spring. Advective inputs of dFe (60% of total inputs) maintain the P. antarctica bloom through early January and support a diatom bloom later in the growing season (early to mid-January). In localized regions near banks shallower than 450 m, suspension of iron-rich sediments and entrainment into the upper layers contributes dFe that supports blooms. Seasonal dFe budgets constructed from the simulations show that diatom-associated dFe accounts for the largest biological reservoir of dFe. Sensitivity studies show that surface input of dFe from sea ice melt, a transient event early in the growing season, sets up the phytoplankton sequencing and bloom magnitude, suggesting that the productivity of the Ross Sea system is vulnerable to changes in the extent and magnitude of sea ice. • Control of Ross Sea phytoplankton by dFe was simulated with a one-dimensional model. • Input of dFe from sea ice melt initiates Phaeocystis antarctica blooms in early spring. • Resuspension of iron-rich sediment supports phytoplankton growth near shallow banks. • Mid- and deep-water dFe sources support diatom blooms following P. antarctica blooms. • P. antarctica contributes more chlorophyll but less POC than do diatoms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Physical environments in the NAP area are closely correlated with SAM post 2000. • Summer phytoplankton production is positively correlated with summer or annual SAM. • Changes in chlorophyll concentrations are projected based on the future SAM trend. The long-term (almost 20 years) hydrographic and primary production data collected by the U.S. Antarctic Marine Living Resources (AMLR) program during the austral summer near Elephant Island and the South Shetland Islands were combined with satellite observations to assess interannual variability in environmental conditions and production of the northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP). Correlation analyses show that interannual variability of the region is related to the dominant mode of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Post 2000, significant correlations (r > 0.5, p < 0.1) are detected between SAM and environmental properties that potentially affect NAP phytoplankton production, particularly mixed layer depth (MLD), the extent of the nutrient-rich Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR). The relationship of these properties to SAM exhibits spatial variability. Near Elephant Island, interannual variations of the summertime MLD and PAR are significantly and positively correlated to the variation of the summer SAM index (r = 0.89 and p = 0.0003 for MLD; r = 0.64 and p = 0.04 for PAR). Significant correlations also exist between chlorophyll concentration and the summer SAM index (r = 0.7, p = 0.02), which are attributed to the SAM-related change in PAR and vertical mixing. Near the South Shetland Islands, the correlation between MLD and summer SAM index is weakened (r = 0.59, p = 0.05). Significant correlations are found between CDW extent and the spring SAM index as well as the annual SAM index (r > 0.7, p ≤ 0.01). Significant correlations also exist between chlorophyll concentration and the spring and annual SAM indices (r > 0.6, p ≤ 0.06). The statistical relationship between chlorophyll concentration and SAM is used with the predicted variation of SAM based on CMIP5 models to make projections of biological production change over the next 50 years in the NAP and adjacent areas. With an estimated SAM trend of 0.03 yr−1, in the next 50 years the surface chlorophyll concentration over the NAP and WAP outer shelf and slope will increase by as much as 0.5 mg m−3, and the integrated chlorophyll concentration over the upper 100-m water column will increase in the NAP area by 10 mg m−2 to 50 mg m−2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]