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One-third of Mars' surface has shallow-buried H$_2$O, but it is currently too cold for use by life. Proposals to warm Mars using greenhouse gases require a large mass of ingredients that are rare on Mars' surface. However, we show here that artificial aerosols made from materials that are readily available at Mars-for example, conductive nanorods that are ~9 $\mu$m long-could warm Mars >5 $\times$ 10$^3$ times more effectively than the best gases. Such nanoparticles forward-scatter sunlight and efficiently block upwelling thermal infrared. Similar to the natural dust of Mars, they are swept high into Mars' atmosphere, allowing delivery from the near-surface. For a particle lifetime of 10 years, two climate models indicate that sustained release at 30 liters/sec would globally warm Mars by $\gtrsim$30 K and start to melt the ice. Therefore, if nanoparticles can be made at scale on (or delivered to) Mars, then the barrier to warming of Mars appears to not be as high as previously thought.

Mars' tadpole craters are small, young craters whose crater rims are incised by one or more exit breaches but lack visible inlets. The tadpole forming climate records the poorly understood drying of Mars since the Early Hesperian. A third of tadpole craters have multiple breaches, therefore a process is needed that was able to generate crater rim incision in multiple locations. We use HiRISE data for four multiple breach tadpole craters to measure their crater fill, rims, and exit breaches. We compare these measurements and other data to our calculations of liquid water supply by rain, surface melting, groundwater discharge, and basal ice sheet melting to discriminate between four proposed formation hypotheses for tadpole breaches, favoring scenarios with ice-filled craters and supraglacial melting. We conclude that multiple breach tadpole craters record hundreds of meters of mid-latitude ice and climate conditions enabling intermittent melting in the Late Hesperian and Amazonian, suggesting that liquid water on Mars has been available in association with water ice for billions of years., Comment: Planetary Science Journal, in press

Understanding surface temperature is important for habitability. Recent work on Mars has found that the dependence of surface temperature on elevation (surface lapse rate) converges to zero in the limit of a thin CO2 atmosphere. However, the mechanisms that control the surface lapse rate are still not fully understood. It remains unclear how the surface lapse rate depends on both greenhouse effect and surface pressure. Here, we use climate models to study when and why "mountaintops are cold". We find the tropical surface lapse rate increases with the greenhouse effect and with surface pressure. The greenhouse effect dominates the surface lapse rate transition and is robust across latitudes. The pressure effect is important at low latitudes in moderately opaque atmospheres. A simple model provides insights into the mechanisms of the transition. Our results suggest that topographic cold-trapping may be important for the climate of arid planets., Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures; accepted for publication on Geophysical Research Letters

Mars' wet-to-dry transition is a major environmental catastrophe, yet the spatial pattern, tempo, and cause of drying are poorly constrained. We built a globally-distributed database of constraints on Mars late-stage paleolake size relative to catchment area (aridity index), and found evidence for climate zonation as Mars was drying out. Aridity increased over time in southern midlatitude highlands, where lakes became proportionally as small as in modern Nevada. Meanwhile, intermittently wetter climates persisted in equatorial and northern-midlatitude lowlands. This is consistent with a change in Mars' greenhouse effect that left highlands too cold for liquid water except during a brief melt season, or alternatively with a fall in Mars' groundwater table. The data are consistent with a switch of unknown cause in the dependence of aridity index on elevation, from high-and-wet early on, to high-and-dry later. These results sharpen our view of Mars' climate as surface conditions became increasingly stressing for life., Comment: Accepted by Geophysical Research Letters

The Medusae Fossae Formation (MFF) is an enigmatic sedimentary unit near the equator of Mars, with an uncertain formation process and absolute age. Due to the heavily wind-eroded surface, it is difficult to determine the absolute model age of the MFF using a one-parameter model based on the crater size-frequency distribution function with existing crater count data. We create a new two-parameter model that estimates both age and a constant erosion rate ($\beta$) by treating cratering as a random Poisson process. Our study uses new crater count data collected from Context Camera imagery for both the MFF and other young equatorial sedimentary rock. Based on our new model, the Central MFF formed $>$1.5 Gyr ago and had low erosion rates ($<$650 nm yr$^{-1}$), whereas the East MFF, Far East MFF, and Zephyria Planum most likely formed $<$1.5 Gyr ago and had higher erosion rates ($>$740 nm $^{-1}$). The top of Aeolis Mons (informally known as Mount Sharp) in Gale Crater and Eastern Candor have relatively young ages and low erosion rates. Based on the estimated erosion rates (since fast erosion permits metastable shallow ice), we also identify several sites, including Zephyria Planum, as plausible locations for shallow subsurface equatorial water ice that is detectable by gamma-ray spectroscopy or neutron spectroscopy. In addition to confirming $<$1.5 Gyr sedimentary rock formations on Mars, and distinguishing older and younger MFF sites, we find that fast-eroding locations have younger ages and MFF locations with slower erosion have older best-fit ages., Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures

Early Mars had rivers, but the cause of Mars' wet-to-dry transition remains unknown. Past climate on Mars can be probed using the spatial distribution of climate-sensitive landforms. We analyzed global databases of water-worked landforms and identified changes in the spatial distribution of rivers over time. These changes are simply explained by comparison to a simplified meltwater model driven by an ensemble of global climate model simulations, as the result of $\gtrsim$10 K global cooling, from global average surface temperature (T) $\ge$ 268 K to T $\sim$ 258 K, due to a weaker greenhouse effect. In other words, river-forming climates on Early Mars were warm and wet first, and cold and wet later. Surprisingly, analysis of the greenhouse effect within our ensemble of global climate model simulations suggests that this shift was primarily driven by waning non-CO2 radiative forcing, and not changes in CO2 radiative forcing.

The history of rivers on Mars is an important constraint on Martian climate evolution. The timing of relatively young, alluvial fan-forming rivers is especially important, as Mars' Amazonian atmosphere is thought to have been too thin to consistently support surface liquid water. Previous regional studies suggested that alluvial fans formed primarily between the Early Hesperian and the Early Amazonian. In this study, we describe how a combination of a global impact crater database, a global geologic map, a global alluvial fan database, and statistical models can be used to estimate the timing of alluvial fan formation across Mars. Using our global approach and improved statistical modeling, we find that alluvial fan formation likely persisted into the last ~2.5 Gyr, well into the Amazonian period. However, the data we analyzed was insufficient to place constraints on the duration of alluvial fan formation. Going forward, more crater data will enable tighter constraints on the parameters estimated in our models and thus further inform our understanding of Mars' climate evolution., Comment: Accepted by The Planetary Science Journal

Earth's modern climate is characterized by wet, rainy deep tropics, however paleoclimate and planetary science have revealed a wide range of hydrological cycle regimes connected to different external parameters. Here we investigate how surface wetness affects the tropical hydrological cycle. When surface wetness is decreased in an Earth-like general circulation model, the tropics remain wet but transition from a rainy to rain-free regime. The rain-free regime occurs when surface precipitation is suppressed as negative evaporation (surface condensation) balances moisture flux convergence. The regime transition is dominated by near-surface relative humidity changes in contrast to the hypothesis that relative humidity changes are small. We show near-surface relative humidity changes responsible for the regime transition are controlled by re-evaporation of stratiform precipitation near the lifting condensation level. Re-evaporation impacts the near-surface through vertical mixing. Our results reveal a new rain-free tropical hydrological cycle regime that goes beyond the wet/dry paradigm., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted by Geophysical Research Letters

Orbital geophysical investigations of Enceladus are critical to understanding its energy balance. We identified key science questions for the geophysical exploration of Enceladus, answering which would support future assessment of Enceladus' astrobiological potential. Using a Bayesian framework, we explored how science requirements map to measurement requirements. We performed mission simulations to study the sensitivity of a single spacecraft and dual spacecraft configurations to static gravity and tidal Love numbers of Enceladus. We find that mapping Enceladus' gravity field, improving the accuracy of the physical libration amplitude, and measuring Enceladus' tidal response would provide critical constraints on the internal structure, and establish a framework for assessing Enceladus' long-term habitability. This kind of investigation could be carried out as part of a life search mission at little additional resource requirements., Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures. A paper submitted to PSJ, which is an extension of the white paper previously submitted to the decadal survey

The next step on the path toward another Earth is to find atmospheres similar to those of Earth and Venus - high-molecular-weight (secondary) atmospheres - on rocky exoplanets. Many rocky exoplanets are born with thick (> 10 kbar) H$_2$-dominated atmospheres but subsequently lose their H$_2$; this process has no known Solar System analog. We study the consequences of early loss of a thick H$_2$ atmosphere for subsequent occurrence of a high-molecular-weight atmosphere using a simple model of atmosphere evolution (including atmosphere loss to space, magma ocean crystallization, and volcanic outgassing). We also calculate atmosphere survival for rocky worlds that start with no H$_2$. Our results imply that most rocky exoplanets orbiting closer to their star than the Habitable Zone that were formed with thick H$_2$-dominated atmospheres lack high-molecular-weight atmospheres today. During early magma ocean crystallization, high-molecular-weight species usually do not form long-lived high-molecular-weight atmospheres; instead they are lost to space alongside H$_2$. This early volatile depletion also makes it more difficult for later volcanic outgassing to revive the atmosphere. However, atmospheres should persist on worlds that start with abundant volatiles (for example, waterworlds). Our results imply that in order to find high-molecular-weight atmospheres on warm exoplanets orbiting M-stars, we should target worlds that formed H$_2$-poor, that have anomalously large radii, or which orbit less active stars.

Transiting planets with radii 2-3 $R_\bigoplus$ are much more numerous than larger planets. We propose that this drop-off is so abrupt because at $R$ $\sim$ 3 $R_\bigoplus$, base-of-atmosphere pressure is high enough for the atmosphere to readily dissolve into magma, and this sequestration acts as a strong brake on further growth. The viability of this idea is demonstrated using a simple model. Our results support extensive magma-atmosphere equilibration on sub-Neptunes, with numerous implications for sub-Neptune formation and atmospheric chemistry., Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters

Ancient hydrology is recorded by sedimentary rocks on Mars. The most voluminous sedimentary rocks that formed during Mars' Hesperian period are sulfate-rich rocks, explored by the $Opportunity$ rover from 2004-2012 and soon to be investigated by the $Curiosity$ rover at Gale crater. A leading hypothesis for the origin of these sulfates is that the cations were derived from evaporation of deep-sourced groundwater, as part of a global circulation of groundwater. Global groundwater circulation would imply sustained warm Earthlike conditions on Early Mars. Global circulation of groundwater including infiltration of water initially in equilibrium with Mars' CO$_2$ atmosphere implies subsurface formation of carbonate. We find that the CO$_2$ sequestration implied by the global groundwater hypothesis for the origin of sulfate-rich rocks on Mars is 30-5000 bars if the $Opportunity$ data are representative of Hesperian sulfate-rich rocks, which is so large that (even accounting for volcanic outgassing) it would bury the atmosphere. This disfavors the hypothesis that the cations for Mars' Hesperian sulfates were derived from upwelling of deep sourced groundwater. If, instead, Hesperian sulfate-rich rocks are approximated as pure Mg-sulfate (no Fe), then the CO$_2$ sequestration is 0.3-400 bars. The low end of this range is consistent with the hypothesis that the cations for Mars' Hesperian sulfates were derived from upwelling of deep sourced groundwater. In both cases, carbon sequestration by global groundwater circulation actively works to terminate surface habitability, rather than being a passive marker of warm Earthlike conditions. $Curiosity$ will soon be in a position to discriminate between these two hypotheses. Our work links Mars sulfate cation composition, carbon isotopes, and climate change., Comment: Accepted by Earth & Planetary Science Letters. 5 figures

The dynamics of Mars' obliquity are believed to be chaotic, and the historical ~3.5 Gyr (late-Hesperian onward) obliquity probability density function (PDF) is high uncertain and cannot be inferred from direct simulation alone. Obliquity is also a strong control on post-Noachian Martian climate, enhancing the potential for equatorial ice/snow melting and runoff at high obliquities (> 40{\deg}) and enhancing the potential for desiccation of deep aquifers at low obliquities (< 25{\deg}). We developed a new technique using the orientations of elliptical craters to constrain the true late-Hesperian-onward obliquity PDF. To do so, we developed a forward model of the effect of obliquity on elliptic crater orientations using ensembles of simulated Mars impactors and ~3.5 Gyr-long Mars obliquity simulations. In our model, the inclinations and speeds of Mars crossing objects bias the preferred orientation of elliptic craters which are formed by low-angle impacts. Comparison of our simulation predictions with a validated database of elliptic crater orientations allowed us to invert for best-fitting obliquity history. We found that since the onset of the late-Hesperian, Mars' mean obliquity was likely low, between ~10{\deg} and ~30{\deg}, and the fraction of time spent at high obliquities > 40{\deg} was likely < 20%.

Chloride-bearing deposits on Mars record high-elevation lakes during the waning stages of Mars' wet era (mid-Noachian to late Hesperian). The water source pathways, seasonality, salinity, depth, lifetime, and paleoclimatic drivers of these widespread lakes are all unknown. Here we combine reaction-transport modeling, orbital spectroscopy, and new volume estimates from high-resolution digital terrain models, in order to constrain the hydrologic boundary conditions for forming the chlorides. Considering a T = 0 degrees C system, we find: (1) individual lakes were >100 m deep and lasted decades or longer; (2) if volcanic degassing was the source of chlorine, then the water-to-rock ratio or the total water volume were probably low, consistent with brief excursions above the melting point and/or arid climate; (3) if the chlorine source was igneous chlorapatite, then Cl-leaching events would require a (cumulative) time of >10 yr at the melting point; (4) Cl masses, divided by catchment area, give column densities 0.1 - 50 kg Cl/m^2, and these column densities bracket the expected chlorapatite-Cl content for a seasonally-warm active layer. Deep groundwater was not required. Taken together, our results are consistent with Mars having a usually cold, horizontally segregated hydrosphere by the time chlorides formed., Comment: 46 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables

The decay of the martian atmosphere - which is dominated by carbon dioxide - is a component of the long-term environmental change on Mars from a climate that once allowed rivers to flow to the cold and dry conditions of today. The minimum size of craters serves as a proxy for palaeopressure of planetary atmospheres, because thinner atmospheres permit smaller objects to reach the surface at high velocities and form craters. The Aeolis Dorsa region near Gale crater on Mars contains a high density of preserved ancient craters interbedded with river deposits and thus can provide constraints on atmospheric density around the time of fluvial activity. Here we use high-resolution orthophotos and digital terrain models from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter to identify ancient craters in Aeolis Dorsa that date to about 3.6 Gyr ago and compare their size distribution with models of atmospheric filtering of impactors. We obtain an upper limit of 0.9$\pm$0.1 bar, rising to 1.9$\pm$0.2 bar if rimmed circular mesas - interpreted to be erosionally-resistant fills of floors of impact craters - are excluded. We assume target properties appropriate for desert alluvium: if sediment had rock-like rock-mass strength similar to bedrock at the time of impact, the upper limit increases by a factor of up to two. If Mars did not have a stable multibar atmosphere at the time that the rivers were flowing - as suggested by our results - then the warm and wet CO2/H2O greenhouse is ruled out, and long-term average temperatures were most likely below freezing.

The impactor flux early in Mars history was much higher than today, so sedimentary sequences include many buried craters. In combination with models for the impactor flux, observations of the number of buried craters can constrain sedimentation rates. Using the frequency of crater-river interactions, we find net sedimentation rate \lesssim 20-300 {\mu}m/yr at Aeolis Dorsa. This sets a lower bound of 1-15 Myr on the total interval spanned by fluvial activity around the Noachian-Hesperian transition. We predict that Gale Crater's mound (Aeolis Mons) took at least 10-100 Myr to accumulate, which is testable by the Mars Science Laboratory., Comment: Submitted to Icarus; minor changes from submitted version

Knowledge of the amount and distribution of radiogenic heating in the mantle is crucial for understanding the dynamics of the Earth, including its thermal evolution, the style and planform of mantle convection, and the energetics of the core. Although the flux of heat from the surface of the planet is robustly estimated, the contributions of radiogenic heating and secular cooling remain poorly defined. Constraining the amount of heat-producing elements in the Earth will provide clues to understanding nebula condensation and planetary formation processes in early Solar System. Mantle radioactivity supplies power for mantle convection and plate tectonics, but estimates of mantle radiogenic heat production vary by a factor of more than 20. Recent experimental results demonstrate the potential for direct assessment of mantle radioactivity through observations of geoneutrinos, which are emitted by naturally occurring radionuclides. Predictions of the geoneutrino signal from the mantle exist for several established estimates of mantle composition. Here we present novel analyses, illustrating surface variations of the mantle geoneutrino signal for models of the deep mantle structure, including those based on seismic tomography. These variations have measurable differences for some models, allowing new and meaningful constraints on the dynamics of the planet. An ocean based geoneutrino detector deployed at several strategic locations will be able to discriminate between competing compositional models of the bulk silicate Earth., Comment: 34 pages, 6 tables, 5 figures, 2 supplementary figures; revised version submitted to Earth Planet. Sci. Lett

Ancient sediments provide archives of climate and habitability on Mars. Gale Crater, the landing site for the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), hosts a 5 km high sedimentary mound. Hypotheses for mound formation include evaporitic, lacustrine, fluviodeltaic, and aeolian processes, but the origin and original extent of Gale's mound is unknown. Here we show new measurements of sedimentary strata within the mound that indicate ~3 degree outward dips oriented radially away from the mound center, inconsistent with the first three hypotheses. Moreover, although mounds are widely considered to be erosional remnants of a once crater-filling unit, we find that the Gale mound's current form is close to its maximal extent. Instead we propose that the mound's structure, stratigraphy, and current shape can be explained by growth in place near the center of the crater mediated by wind-topography feedbacks. Our model shows how sediment can initially accrete near the crater center far from crater-wall katabatic winds, until the increasing relief of the resulting mound generates mound-flank slope-winds strong enough to erode the mound. Our results indicate mound formation by airfall-dominated deposition with a limited role for lacustrine and fluvial activity, and potentially limited organic carbon preservation. Morphodynamic feedbacks between wind and topography are widely applicable to a range of sedimentary mounds and ice mounds across the Martian surface, and possibly other planets., Comment: 2 new figures, expanded discussion, results unchanged

A model for the formation and distribution of sedimentary rocks on Mars is proposed. The rate-limiting step is supply of liquid water from seasonal melting of snow or ice. The model is run for a O(10^2) mbar pure CO2 atmosphere, dusty snow, and solar luminosity reduced by 23%. For these conditions snow only melts near the equator, and only when obliquity >40 degrees, eccentricity >0.12, and perihelion occurs near equinox. These requirements for melting are satisfied by 0.01-20% of the probability distribution of Mars' past spin-orbit parameters. Total melt production is sufficient to account for aqueous alteration of the sedimentary rocks. The pattern of seasonal snowmelt is integrated over all spin-orbit parameters and compared to the observed distribution of sedimentary rocks. The global distribution of snowmelt has maxima in Valles Marineris, Meridiani Planum and Gale Crater. These correspond to maxima in the sedimentary-rock distribution. Higher pressures and especially higher temperatures lead to melting over a broader range of spin-orbit parameters. The pattern of sedimentary rocks on Mars is most consistent with a Mars paleoclimate that only rarely produced enough meltwater to precipitate aqueous cements and indurate sediment. The results suggest intermittency of snowmelt and long globally-dry intervals, unfavorable for past life on Mars. This model makes testable predictions for the Mars Science Laboratory rover at Gale Crater. Gale Crater is predicted to be a hemispheric maximum for snowmelt on Mars., Comment: Submitted to Icarus. Minor changes from submitted version

Feedbacks that can destabilize the climates of synchronously-rotating rocky planets may arise on planets with strong day-night surface temperature contrasts. Earth-like habitable-zone (HZ) planets maintain stable surface liquid water over geological time. This requires equilibrium between the temperature-dependent rate of greenhouse-gas consumption by weathering,and greenhouse-gas resupply by other processes. Detected small-radius exoplanets, and anticipated M-dwarf HZ rocky planets, are expected to be tidally locked. We investigate two feedbacks that can destabilize climate on tidally-locked planets. (1) If small changes in pressure alter the temperature distribution across a planet's surface such that the weathering rate increases when the pressure decreases, a positive feedback occurs involving increasing weathering rate near the substellar point, decreasing pressure, and increasing substellar surface temperature. (2) When decreases in pressure increase the surface area above the melting point (through reduced advective cooling of the substellar point), and the corresponding increase in volume of liquid causes net dissolution of the atmosphere, a further decrease in pressure occurs. We use an idealized energy balance model to map out the conditions under which these instabilities may occur. The weathering runaway can shrink the habitable zone, and cause geologically rapid 10^3-fold pressure shifts within the HZ. Mars may have undergone a weathering runaway in the past. Substellar dissolution is usually a negative feedback or weak positive feedback on changes in pressure. Both instabilities are suppressed if the atmosphere has a high radiative efficiency. Our results are most relevant for atmospheres that are thin and have low greenhouse-gas radiative efficiency. These results identify a new pathway by which HZ planets can undergo rapid climate shifts and become uninhabitable., Comment: 30 pages, 6 figures, submitted to ApJ

Channel networks on the plateau adjacent to Juventae Chasma have the highest drainage densities reported on Mars.We model frozen precipitation on the Juventae plateau,finding that the trigger for forming these channel networks could have been ephemeral lakeshore precipitation,and that they do not require past temperatures higher than today.If short-lived and localized events explain some dendritic channel networks on Mars, this would weaken the link between dendritic valley networks and surface climate conditions that could sustain life. Our analysis uses MRAMS simulations and HiRISE DTMs.We model localized weather systems driven by water vapor release from ephemeral lakes during outflow channel formation.At Juventae Chasma,mean snowfall reaches a maximum of 0.9mm/hr water equivalent on the SW rim of the chasm.Radiative effects of the thick cloud cover raise maximum (minimum, mean) plateau surface temperatures by up to 24K(9K, 17K)locally.The key result is that the area of maximum modeled precipitation shows a striking correspondence to the mapped Juventae plateau channel networks.Three independent methods show this fit is unlikely to be due to chance.We use a snowpack energy balance model to show that if the snow has the albedo of dust(0.28), and for a solar luminosity of 0.8($\equiv$3.0Gya), then if the atmospheric greenhouse effect is unchanged from(6K warmer than)today only 0.4%(21%)of lake-induced precipitation events produce snowpack that undergoes melting.However, warming from associated dense cloud cover would allow melting over a wider range of conditions.In these localized precipitation scenarios, global temperatures need not be higher than today, and the rest of the planet remains dry., Comment: Submitted to JGR Planets

We use the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) to simulate lake storms on Mars, finding that intense localized precipitation will occur for lake size >=10^3 km^2. Mars has a low-density atmosphere, so deep convection can be triggered by small amounts of latent heat release. In our reference simulation, the buoyant plume lifts vapor above condensation level, forming a 20km-high optically-thick cloud. Ice grains grow to 200 microns radius and fall near (or in) the lake at mean rates up to 1.5 mm/hr water equivalent (maximum rates up to 6 mm/hr water equivalent). Because atmospheric temperatures outside the surface layer are always well below 273K, supersaturation and condensation begin at low altitudes above lakes on Mars. In contrast to Earth lake-effect storms, lake storms on Mars involve continuous precipitation, and their vertical velocities and plume heights exceed those of tropical thunderstorms on Earth. Convection does not reach above the planetary boundary layer for lakes <<10^3 km^2 or for atmospheric pressure >O(10^2) mbar. Instead, vapor is advected downwind with little cloud formation. Precipitation occurs as snow, and the daytime radiative forcing at the land surface due to plume vapor and storm clouds is too small to melt snow directly (<+10 W/m^2). However, if orbital conditions are favorable, then the snow may be seasonally unstable to melting and produce runoff to form channels. We calculate the probability of melting by running thermal models over all possible orbital conditions and weighting their outcomes by probabilities given by Laskar et al., 2004. We determine that for an equatorial vapor source, sunlight 15% fainter than at present, and snowpack with albedo 0.28 (0.35), melting may occur with 4%(0.1%) probability. This rises to 56%(12%) if the ancient greenhouse effect was modestly (6K) greater than today., Comment: Submitted to JGR Planets